1913Intel
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The liberal rule for war: It must not benefit America.
The conservative rule for war: It should benefit America.
The rules don't not work all the time. Liberals might accidentally benefit America, and conservatives might not achieve benefits for America. It's the intent at the start that counts.
If everything is OK, then why is the author even writing this article? Perhaps it could be that a lot of people are wondering about the question of war with China. When they weren't wondering about it before, now they are. So China's rise has changed the thinking of many people.
There are many articles on this very topic. Most conclude that saner minds will prevail, but a few suggest that war is a real possibility. When making a prediction it's just plain safer to project the trend. One will always be right until they are wrong. Being wrong means death so no one will be around to care about the missed forecast.
Projecting the trend is more or less the linear projection method. This mostly works for short-term forecasts but will usually be wrong for long-term forecasts. Did anyone project the Arab Spring? After 20 to 30 years of relative stability - bam.
Instead of wondering about a war, one should ask the following: If war were to occur, when would it be likely to happen and what would be the conditions? Predicting war is impossible, but one can determine if one is in danger of war.
You know you are in danger of war if:
1. You are seeing more and more articles wondering about war.
2. For US, you have had 60 to 80 years of stability. http://goo.gl/1tJaZ
3. You are disarming - think nuclear reductions and sequestration.
4. You are in decline.
5. Your enemies are unstable and suffer from threats of revolution.
6. War is in the best interest of your enemy leaders - not the people, but the leaders.
War might not happen, but if it were to happen then right now is a pretty good time.The war threat comes not just from China, but Russia too. All we need is a good excuse.
@neorecycler The longer things are stable the more likely they will remain. Hence, we are in good shape. Too bad the real world doesn't work like that. Conservatives don't need much help understanding the war threat. Liberals couldn't be bothered, for now. Once the Middle East blows up, then check out my website to understand why you are in trouble.
I am wondering if the author has lost his mind. The US is so insure that I am telling my readers to get ready for nuclear in a year or two with China and Russia. Why? China's peaceful rise is at an end. What is it about 'get ready to fight and win wars' do you not understand? How many times do top Chinese leaders have to talk like this before you believe? Russia has made multiple implied threats of nuclear attack over western interference in Syria and Iran. Israel just attacked Syria and has Iran in its sights. The US nuclear arsenal has been gutted. What remains is very old. Launch operators for our nuclear missiles suffer from incompetence, rot and crisis. US safety depends on one assumption: Leaders put their people first. But we already know this is false. If Chinese and Russian leaders can survive a nuclear war, then they might be willing to start a nuclear war if given a good excuse. Thanks to the nuclear zero crowd, now the leaders can survive a nuclear war.
Why would the US want to intervene? The rebels are going to be much worse than Assad. Isn't this already clear?
Apparently, not many people noticed that Russia has effectively threatened nuclear war over western interference in Syria and Iran. Does anybody want to test Russia on this issue? Medvedev dropped the Russian stock market by 3.5% by mentioning nuclear war over western interference in the Middle East.
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Russia warns of a ‘very big war’ if West meddles with Middle East
Russia has warned of a ‘very big war’ causing suffering across the world if Western countries encourage anti-government uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa.
Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Western meddling would lead to ‘a very big war that will cause suffering not only to countries in the region, but also to states far beyond its boundaries’, the New York Times reported.
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Which state(s) do you think Lavrov is referring to?
"economic slowdown, energy insecurity, and the growing political instabilities associated with dead pigs floating in rivers, a potential nationwide outbreak of avian flu, terrible traffic jams, sky-high real estate prices, and unbreathable air. No wonder the Chinese Communist Party works hard to keep populist foreign-policy issues in the headlines."
In essence, China behaves badly because it is in trouble. Take a look at these article titles:
Is China Ripe for a Revolution? – NYTimes.com
China academics warn of “violent revolution” if no political reform – Yahoo! News
The possibility of China facing a revolution in 2013 is pretty big
The Coming Collapse: Authoritarians in China and Russia Face an Endgame
When a regime reaches a tipping point or pre-collapse state, then one should expect it to be sensitive to little things. With its economy starting to slow, China's bag of tricks might be limited to a bad-boy foreign policy. Hence its sensitivity to foreign countries and in particular the US.
"But does that really explain why Dzhokhar and his older brother Tamerlan (who was killed during a police shootout on Friday) would want to destroy the lives of people in Boston?"
Everyone needs to start thinking about radicalized Muslims differently. Radicalized Muslims are revolutionaries, just like the Bolsheviks were revolutionaries in 1913. Both seek a totalitarian form of government.
Why do some Muslims want to destroy the lives of people in Boston? Find the answer below:
Muhammad commanded his followers to violently subjugate non-Muslims (Qur'an 9:29), and to kill those who "make mischief" in a Muslim land (5:33). Also, according to Muhammad, those who financially support soldiers are equally responsibility for the deeds of the soldiers (Sunan Ibn Majah 2759). Since U.S. tax payers financially support the U.S. soldiers who are fighting in Muslim lands (e.g., Afghanistan), U.S. citizens are viable targets for terrorists. Hence, by blowing up spectators at the Boston Marathon, Muslim brothers Djohar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev were simply following the teachings of Muhammad. http://goo.gl/QfIZl
Implementing New START is a little like operating Chernobyl at low power - the exact situation that caused it to blow up. Chernobyl had a design flaw that was only apparent when operated at low power output. Modern financial also uses the Chernobyl model of design. Literally thousands of formulas/models assume that people act like little particles bouncing around. This works just fine until there is a big crisis, then everybody herds causing the formulas/models to blow up.
New START is founded on one basic principle that is flawed: MAD of society is enough to prevent nuclear war. However, we do know this works: MAD of leaders is enough to prevent nuclear war. It takes a much larger number of nuclear delivery vehicles to be able to retaliate many times over many years to ensure the enemy leaders do not survive. It's not about making the rubble bounce. It's about making the enemy leaders understand that we will get them. Now low levels of nuclear weapons mean the leaders can survive while society takes a hit. History tells us over and over that the survival of the regime (leaders) is the most important thing. Survival of society is lower on the priority list.
New START is also a violation of an important historical principle: If you want peace, then prepare for war. Disarming our nuclear arsenal is not preparing for war. It is preparing for peace.
Another problem with New START is that it is happening at the worst possible time. The foundation of the modern world order is crumbling before our eyes.
The Global Trends 2025 report suggests that the international system as we know it today – created out of the ashes of World War II – “will be almost unrecognizable by 2025." The last international system broke-down during World War I – 1914 to 1918. Do you think this new transition will go smoothly? Historically, transitions in power have not gone smoothly.
The World Economic Forum (WEF-Davos) reports a serious threat of systemic breakdown across the world. There are signs that 2013 is a lot like 1913. The historical signs of a great-power war are present today: Empires in decline, economic volatility and ethnic conflict (Middle East.) There is talk of nuclear war or wars leading to nuclear war: North Korea, China-Japan, China-Philippines and if the West interferes in Syria or Iran.
Is John Kerry the Neville Chamberlain of our time?
This is where modern liberalism has brought the West. It is utterly incapable of seeing the better. Now no culture or religion is better or worse than any other. So there must be Christianists. In reality the Islamists are revolutionary Islamo-Bolsheviks. They want to install a revolutionary form of government across the world - Islamic government with Sharia law. Is that what Christianists want?
@icbeodragon It appears that you are looking at each incident in relative isolation. What about stepping back?
Let's take a look at the big picture.
The Global Trends 2025 report suggests that the international system as we know it today – created out of the ashes of World War II – “will be almost unrecognizable by 2025?. The last international system broke-down during World War I – 1914 to 1918. Do you think this new transition will go smoothly? Historically, transitions in power have not gone smoothly.
The World Economic Forum (WEF-Davos) report notes our increasingly interdependent world has caused leaders in every sector of society to struggle with the velocity and complexity of change. “The resulting complexity threatens to overwhelm countries, companies, cultures and communities,” said Klaus Schwab, founder and Executive Chairman of the WEF, in a statement. Due to that complexity, there is an increased risk of systemic breakdown, Schwab added. As such, seeds of dystopia continue being sown.
Here is an excerpt from Eve of Disaster:
Eve of Disaster – By Charles Emmerson | Foreign Policy
The leading power of the age is in relative decline, beset by political crisis at home and by steadily eroding economic prowess. Rising powers are jostling for position in the four corners of the world, some seeking a new place for themselves within the current global order, others questioning its very legitimacy. Democracy and despotism are locked in uneasy competition. A world economy is interconnected as never before by flows of money, trade, and people, and by the unprecedented spread of new, distance-destroying technologies. A global society, perhaps even a global moral consciousness, is emerging as a result. Small-town America rails at the excessive power of Wall Street. Asia is rising once again. And, yes, there’s trouble in the Middle East.
Sound familiar?
In many ways, the world of 1913, the last year before the Great War, seems not so much the world of 100 years ago as the world of today, curiously refracted through time. …
Historian Niall Ferguson points out that the 20th century signs of wars are based on the three E’s: Empires in decline, economic volatility and ethnic conflict. The American empire is clearly in decline. The current global financial crisis is causing volatility around the world. Finally, conflict in the Middle East between Israel and its neighbors completes the third E for ethnic conflict. When all three are present, like they are today, there is great danger of upheaval – war.
The US runs into a crisis period every 80 to 100 years according to “The Fourth Turning“, written by two historians. In 2005 we entered another 20 year crisis period. “Winter’s Coming for the Boomers” is an article that discusses the theories in “The Fourth Turning”. Each new crisis period is due to the impact of crises on the generations over an 80 to 100 year period. Each new generation increasingly forgets the lessons from the past. Since smaller collapses (recessions and wars) tend to be suppressed, eventually the country must experience a large crisis.
Unfortunately, everybody wants to look at each incident in isolation. I haven't hear much about this recent Korean tension in context. What does the Korean tension mean given the following background?
1. Talk about China and Japan going to war.
2. Concern about China and the Philippines stumbling into a military conflict.
3. Talk about revolution in China.
4. Talk about revolution in Russia.
5. Multiple implied Russian threats of nuclear attack over western interference in Syria or Iran.
6. Real concern in Russia about regime survival and western threats.
So it appears that the Korean tension fits a bigger pattern. It is a sign of a much bigger collapse coming. Like a small tremor before a big earthquake.
The art of war, Chinese style | The Japan Times Online | 1913 Intel - http://goo.gl/jj4lI
"Here are six of the 1962 principles China replicated in its subsequent aggressions: (1) take the adversary by surprise to maximize political and psychological shock; (2) strike only when the international and regional timing is opportune; (3) hit as fast and as hard as possible by unleashing “human wave” assaults; (4) be willing to take military gambles; (5) mask offense as defense; and (6) wage war with the political objective to “teach a lesson” — an aim publicly acknowledged by Beijing in the 1962 and 1979 attacks."
Based on China's past aggressions, it appears that we don't need to worry so much about accidents. Instead, we need to worry about planned aggression.
War is really just a collapse, like a financial collapse, except with bullets and bombs. And big collapses happen when a system reaches a pre-collapse state. Then just a little push will send the system into a big collapse. Like the Tunisian fruit vendor who started the Arab Spring.
Is China in a pre-collapse state?
Has there been a long period of stability followed by problems? Do small things cause outsized reactions? Is there a threat of revolution?
I (US citizen) was talking to my Venezuelan friends the other day. We live in Switzerland. They are highly educated and highly paid friends. And why are they in Switzerland and not in Venezuela, I asked? Chavez! If you have a process that drives out the best and brightest, is that a good thing?
@polarscribe It's not about gaining anything. It's all about the better option.
If you are in danger of losing everything, then losing less than everything is the better option. Nuclear war may be a better option than revolution for the leaders. Also, there is a real danger that both China and Russia may end at war with the US one way or another. It might be the East China Sea. It might be Syria or Iran. If they stumble into nuclear war with the US, then the outcome for the leaders is not clear. A preemptive nuclear strike ala Pearl Harbor style is the best option given revolution or stumbling into war with the US.
If you don't understand that there is a real danger of revolution in both China and Russia, then you have some research to do. If you do not understand the danger of stumbling into war in the East China Sea, then do some research. The same for Russia.
If China and Russia do nothing, then that could be the worst possible outcome for the leaders.
If China and Russia get together, then the US can only retaliate one time.
You sound like a Liberal. The mind of a Liberal flips the world upside-down: The US is not so good, and China and Russia are not so bad. If anybody would start a nuclear war then it would be the US. Clearly, Russia and China would never do it. Also, Liberals must always resort to name calling.
The authors might be right if you don't view societies as positive feedback-loop systems. In that case the people forget history. Unfortunately, the people do remember history. The Chinese themselves have told us that historical grievances are a big factor driving China forward. The grievances apply to both Japan and the West. That implies it is not possible for China to back-down in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Japan has also told us that it will not back-down. If both sides can't back-down, then is it all that hard to see where the East China Sea conflict is going?
What if China and Russia combine forces? For those not paying attention, Russian leaders have issued several implied threats of nuclear attack in the last year over western interference in other countries. The warning is to keep us out of Syria and Iran. What happens if the US or Israel interfere in Syria or Iran?
Both the Chinese and Russian leadership are under internal threat of revolution. Both regimes are in trouble. If they do nothing, then will they be around in 5 years? Maybe, but one can credibly believe it's not clear. If revolution means death to the leaders, then might nuclear war be a better option for them? It also helps that the US can now only retaliate one time. All those nuclear bunkers that for some unexplained reason China and Russia have been building will come in handy.
If you aren't very worried about China and Russia, then either you're not paying attention or in willful denial. I track this stuff on my blog, and I'm sweating bullets.
There have been quite a few articles about the troubles facing Putin and Russia. Here are a few:
Russia and China: Is the World Ready for Their Decline? - http://goo.gl/Ye4pK
Putin's Russia and the Big Lie - http://goo.gl/sZZ1E
The End of Putinomics - http://goo.gl/PHFyM
Fred Hiatt: Putin turns back the clock in Russia - http://goo.gl/BCCnx
Will Russian Science Be Stunted by Putin’s Fear of Espionage? - http://goo.gl/xlsRy
Kasparov: Russian President Putin Will Not Stay in Power Long - http://goo.gl/tTRKT
If Putin is weak and starting to face trouble at home, then could he redirect everybody's attention with a menacing foreign policy?
There is something that should be done. Since China and Russia facilitated this problem, they should pay a price. And I might ask, is it ever smart to trade with hostile countries that have nuclear weapons pointed at you? China's weapons are probably based on our own designs which is a nice touch. What about seriously restricting trade with those countries?
Let us dump the North Korea problem into the lap of China and Russia. They helped to create the problem, so they can fix it. Until then, trade will take a massive hit. At this point I can hear the lectures about the pain this will cause in the US. Do you want to solve the problem or not?
Walt is like an analyst asked to give a stock market predict. If one has to give an answer then the safest prediction for the near future is the trend. Most of the time they will be right, and the occasional missteps will likely be forgotten.
Walt's answer may be the most logical, but that doesn't mean it's correct. The safest prediction will always mean there is no nuclear war coming. He will always be right, until one day he is wrong. At that point it doesn't matter, because he will be dead. Unfortunately, those listening to him will be dead too.
I run a blog on emerging risks. It looks like there is a problem with both China and Russia. Both are acting in ways that suggest a great-power war is in the offing. Below is a list of some of the articles about China that suggest trouble is ahead:
Sea of Troubles: Asia Today Compared to Europe Before World War I | TIME.com
China's New Militancy - The Diplomat
Return of warlike rhetoric from China - FT.com
Beware another Pearl Harbor: China may start a war when its economy falters - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Special Report - China's military hawks take the offensive | Reuters
Chinese Military Instructed to 'Prepare For War' With Japan
China’s Military Living in “Parallel Universe” – Ford
China prepares subways for nuclear attacks | Washington Free Beacon
Why 2013 eerily looks like the world of 1913, on the cusp of the Great War
Chinese think tank: conflict inevitable between Japan, China over Senkakus
In 2013, the great global unraveling
China academics warn of "violent revolution" if no political reform - Yahoo! News
2013, like 1913, could see epic transformations in world order | World news | guardian.co.uk
Professor: Don't Be Surprised If There's A War Between Japan And China In The Next Year
Is the Collapse of China's Communist Party Rule Near? - Project Syndicate
Is 2013 the year war finally breaks out in Asia?
Links to these articles (and many more) are located here: http://goo.gl/84NSP
I haven't listed the threats of nuclear war coming out of Russia. Recent threats pertain to western interference in the Middle East.
Walt doesn't abstract out enough the signs of war. There are five key conditions that were present in 1914 that were necessary to start World War I: a weakened superpower, powerful opponents, unreliable alliances, rogue regimes and terrorist organizations. The first three set the stage for war. The last two provided the catalyst. Today the catalyst surrounds Israel and Syria - the intersection of two civilizations each backed by major powers.
With the US in decline and talk of a change in world order, now is the time to be worried about war.
I think Obama and the members of his administration are mad. In all of history, has a country disarmed itself to safety? The totalitarian left is driving the US over a cliff. Everybody is sleeping as China threatens US allies. And war is a real possibility. Russia has threatened us several times with nuclear attack or targeting. During all of this the US can't disarm fast enough. The US is dead man walking and too stupid to know it.
Below are some direct and implied nuclear threats (article titles):
[Links to these articles can be found here - http://www.1913intel.com/favorites/]
Russian Comments About Nuclear War in Context
Infringing national sovereignty could lead to nuclear apocalypse - Medvedev — RT
Medvedev Warns of Nuclear War
Russian Threats of Nuclear War Grow Louder
Russia is positioning itself for war:
Russia’s Forces Are Ready for War - Army Chief | Defense | RIA Novosti [Jan. 26, 2013]
Moscow builds 5,00 new bomb shelters against nuclear attack – RT
I assume you are Russian, so you will discount everything above. Too bad it doesn't matter. If you live in the US and think Russia is a little angel, you still have to worry about China. China is threatening even more.
China's New Militancy - The Diplomat
Return of warlike rhetoric from China - FT.com
Special Report - China's military hawks take the offensive | Reuters
Chinese Military Instructed to 'Prepare For War' With Japan
China prepares subways for nuclear attacks | Washington Free Beacon
Chinese think tank: conflict inevitable between Japan, China over Senkakus
Of course, I am giving you just a taste of the articles. There are historical signs of war that are present today. The biggest being the decline of an empire - the US. When the US started its decline at the end of 2008, it represented the start of a very dangerous period historically. There are concerns of revolution in both Russia and China - another dangerous sign. Finally, we need something to set it (nuclear war) off. That's where Israel comes in.