JRsec
- 1351 comments
- 528 likes given
- 1639 likes received
Bio not provided
@thomaslrowe @AllTideUp I think this is an interesting argument. All Tide Up would have been in agreement with our great-grandfathers who probably hated to see the old Southern Conference break apart. While we on the other hand grew up with a smaller SEC and remember all of the old rivalries. It's still hard to believe that there is no longer a wreck Tech parade at Auburn and that students today know nothing of the infamous greasing of the tracks. But, large conferences are coming back because state budgets are shrinking and in tough economic times leveraging combined power into income is a necessity.
I think Delany is just keeping his profile up in a potential area for future growth with these comments. I could be surprised but it doesn't look like there will be much movement any time soon out of the ACC. If anything big happens it will likely come from the Big 12 and involve just about everybody since it takes 8 votes to dissolve the conference and end the GOR. It's true that the ACC right now stands to be last out of the Power 5 conferences in terms of revenue. However that could change significantly should they pick up Texas and or Oklahoma and friends. When the SEC seemed to be looking East we took from the West. With Delany looking East he may be eyeing Kansas, Oklahoma, or Texas or a combination of two of them. I don't think because of the Longhorns network affiliations that they would likely head to FOX country. If they move I expect it to be to a location where ESPN holds network rights and that would be either the ACC or SEC. Oklahoma I believe is with Comcast so the PAC or even the Big 10 might be hospitable in converting their network endeavors into a grander picture. How the rest falls into place would be the spectacle.
I've even heard one speculation that N.C. State and Virginia Tech could be cleared to move to the SEC should the ACC desire to expand their footprint further by taking 4 from the Big 12. I'm sure all parties would have to be willing for anything like that to happen but with ESPN holding the tabs on both conferences and perhaps looking to shelter their best product in the Big 12 from FOX that might be a possibility. Still I would believe something like that when it happens. But the idea was intriguing.
If, however, the Big 12 adds a couple of teams then I think it's all over for at least 10 years. It's just that without a network of their own, and without substantial enough targets to gain them the market presence they need, I don't think in 5 years they will be earning what the ACC does. I believe Dodds knows that and that is why they haven't wanted to expand. Add more teams and it becomes nearly impossible to place enough of them to dissolve the GOR and free Texas to escape to better academic and athletic digs. Therein lies the only realignment possibilities I see for the remaining power conferences in the present environment.
It O'Bannon wins there should be an immediate breakaway by the upper tier schools to distance themselves from the mess and to establish their own operating principles. Let the damages be paid out of the 400 million that that the NCAA has rat-holed.
Well, now they can't afford to leave at the same time they can't afford not to. Sometimes the worst prisons are those we build for ourselves.
It takes 8 votes to dissolve the Big 12. Say hello to the new old target. If they expand they will be around a while. If they don't expand the will be absorbed by three possibly 4 conferences.
Given their glory is either in their heads or in the past I have two suggestions:
For those who think they are still relevant: Deluded and Deranged
For those who remember their past relevance: Rusty and Dusty
@ecdawg I understand and respect your position but I just don't see F.S.U. going to the Big 12. In the long run I don't think any team that rates with ESPN will be moved to the Big 12. In fact before it's over with I expect to see the top brands removed from the Big 12.
I sure hope we know how this ends before the Summer is over. I grown more than a bit tired of it now. There is so much going on in the world, serious issues, that I'm ready for my recreation to be recreation again instead of part of the upheaval.
@ecdawg Whatever happens the changes themselves will tell us who has been in control of this process. If it is the conferences then the obvious targets will be the movement. Virginia and Georgia Tech to the Big 10 would be likely. North Carolina and Virginia Tech to the SEC would be what I would hope that we would get.
But E.C., if the network is control we could be looking at a whole different picture. Brands and markets would be arranged so that ESPN could significantly trim their outlay to the ACC and maximize the markets and brands that they protect within the new SECN.
North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse along with F.S.U. would be those brands and markets that I think they would most like to hang onto. It's obvious now that N.D. isn't going to really be their product except nominally with half of those 5 ACC games. Therefore I don't think B.C. is something that they would seek to protect.
If Delany wanted to move to 20 he would have Miami, Boston College, and perhaps N.C. State (academics are the same as Nebraska) and maybe even Clemson to do it with. Or better for the SEC would be N.C. State, Miami, Louisville, and Clemson to the Big 12. If all the Big 10 gets out of something like this is Virginia and Georgia Tech then so be it. I just don't want them in Florida.
If the conferences are making the calls we will stay essentially a Southeastern Flagship conference. If the Network calls the shots then it's their bacon and markets we will have to absorb.
@ecdawg Yep. Funny that Rutgers didn't get any travel money isn't it. Obviously it was a payment for the previously agreed upon figure of 20 million. That said even if the figure was 30 million it won't be enough to hold frightened schools in place.
I'm still not convinced that a run on the ACC is a good thing for the SEC. I would rather see an orderly brokering of movement if it comes to that, but we'll see.
Well now that N.D. has removed itself from the possibility of helping out the ACC with any possible network deal (since they would have made the draw of such a network much more doable) it looks like the Maryland suit that E.C. points out is one of two remaining ropes to which the ACC will cling. If, or when, Maryland gets out of that suit for less than 52 million (more like 20) then the only rope left as a lifeline to the ACC will be oddly enough the SECN. If there are no piggybacks, bundles, or shared markets between the ACC and SEC then the long awaited carnage may indeed take place.
Nothing like a little roast duckling with a nice full bodied Merlot. Isn't it ironic. This time the Duck paid to take the Bird dog hunting.
The announcement has been postponed until next week due to the bombing at the Boston Marathon.
Obviously if the room was trashed it was Manti and Lanae. They've just been separated by miles for so long and they just wanted the scouts to know that they were really together. The give away was being unavailable to talk. But seriously if a player gets that close to the Big Time and fouls it up it's the only time that I think the agent should be able to sue for damages.
How about we get carriage because we are the most popular college football conference in the nation according to the number of eyeballs that tune in weekly to watch our teams play. And if any cable network that seeks sales in the South doesn't carry our network sell their stock and boycott their product. It won't take them long to figure out what they have to do.
9 games is a given. Two more teams would help too. Throw in a schedule alliance with the Big 12 or ACC or both and the content picks up again. At some point in the future we will no longer be able to schedule Directional U or the State Institute of the Destitute and Disabled for homecoming either. Get rid of those rip offs to the season ticket book and you will immediately have more content to show and happier fans in the stadium.
As far as not being able to see all of the games on ESPN, ESPN2, or CBS. "Ain't nothin for free kid and dems de breaks!"
@ecdawg I think your angle here is correct. The question is how do they lock down that product? I think they haven't because that is the pressure for the Irish to commit fully. There are no other options for N.D. and their cache as a full member enhances the ACC tremendously, as a partial member not so much. If dangling the fear of ACC implosion gets Swarbrick to commit fully then there is the reason. An ACC with Notre Dame completely in the fold is an ACC that can also get Texas. But Texas won't come without friends. That is where the peaceful solution comes in. Should N.C. State and Virginia Tech be permitted to move to the SEC in an orderly fashion then a Kansas or Oklahoma school, or another Texas school could come with them. The ACC would lose no state from its footprint, would dilute slightly the concentration of teams from the state of North Carolina and enhance its football credentials substantially. Then without the Big 12 to pay for ESPN could infuse them with enough to make them competitive financially. The SEC and ACC could partner and off we go. If ESPN wanted to protect even more schools from the Big 12 then the SEC could move to 18 with 2 and the ACC could add 2 more. If not Larry Scott and Delany could pick over the scraps to get to 16.
The second theory, the one I put forth earlier would be that ESPN protects its most valued ACC product if it is clear that N.D. is not going to join in full. The most profitable and well watched teams from the ACC for both sports combined are in rough order: F.S.U., Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia Tech, Miami, and N.C. State. Territory they would also need to protect to remain as a valuable product in New England would be Syracuse, Pittsburgh, and Boston College in that order. I can see them letting Miami, N.C. State, and Boston College go if need be, but not the others. That leaves 7 out 15 they would need to protect so as not to lose any regional exposure or top cash makers from the lineup. I believe they would relocate those, or as many as they could to the SEC where the content for the two sports through the matchups would go through the roof and those ACC products would be even more valuable.
The snag to such a move would be the University System of North Carolina which would want the Wolfpacks inclusion somewhere. Since they don't qualify academically for the Big 10 that could be a snag. It's not clean or precise but nothing in this really as been but the gaining of A&M and Missouri. Strategically that was a masterpiece for markets.
So as I see it if N.D. commits fully ESPN does come to the rescue for the ACC. Without N.D. as an ESPN total product they don't, but will come to the rescue of the most valuable of their product in the ACC during their relocation to other ESPN friendly conferences and there is only 1 where they control enough leverage to want to place those teams and that's the SEC.
@ecdawg While the Big 10 could certainly pick up schools like Virginia, Georgia Tech, Duke, and possibly a Boston College (markets only add), or even a Florida State/or Miami addition should the Maryland case end with a thud for the ACC, I still contend that ESPN is not going to permit their most lucrative brands to fall into FOX hands. It's simply not logical. That is where Yoda and Lambert fall short on their predictions. There is a whole pathology in the predictions coming off of the WVU board anyway. But that's a discussion for another time and place.
I don't see Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, or even N.C. State going to a FOX held conference. In fact it's the product in the Big 12 that will most likely be sheltered. Also, it is not in the interest of the SEC for the ACC to disintegrate. If we truly just want a North Carolina school and a Virginia school there are better ways to acquire them rather than letting a revenue hungry Big 10 into our backyard to try to destabilize our markets and the division of Big 12 product could make those alternative ways possible, not likely, but possible.
The ACC has existed side by side with the SEC and, other than a few years after they added F.S.U. and Miami, they have never been a threat to us. In fact because they have not been a threat we have had the perfect climate in which to grow into the premier conference in the nation. We own recruiting in our region and are expanding our base there as well. The variance of income between the ACC and SEC has helped us to thrive as well. We have never had someone who could match us dollar for dollar in our area. Why do we want the Big 10 in the South when the status quo has proven to be such a beneficial climate?
And EC another area I would disagree about is the Big 12. If the ACC implosion scenario plays out the Big 10 is going to expand to 20. ESPN will want to protect their brands and the Big 12 is no place to do it. I would say that we would match markets with the Big 10 to prevent a revenue gap from forming. Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Syracuse would likely come into play along with F.S.U. Our taking them would be incentivized by ESPN who without the rest of the ACC to care for would have 180 million more to throw our way to make it happen. They after all will have a network to protect.
In that climate the Big 12 gets pulled apart. Why? Without having to give them a share of the future playoff money each of the surviving 60 teams (and that is what we would move to should the ACC implode) would get an additional 2 million each for simply having eliminated the 4th share of the playoff payout. So logically there is no reason to prop up the Big 12 with ACC leftovers. In fact one of the three conferences would get an extra team into the playoffs each year and the TV revenue from that spot would be a perk as well.
Slive and Delany may well sit it out while 6 or 7 of the Big 12 schools move to the PAC because by doing nothing each of their 20 schools get 2 million dollars wealthier. Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State could easily make the move giving Larry Scott significant exposure in the Central time zone. That more than the quality of the schools increases the PAC's content because that means through scheduling they can actually create time slots to play in that have never been there for them before.
While which teams specifically go to the Big 10 and SEC out of an ACC implosion scenario could be disputed the logic and math says that if the Big 10 moves to 20 that the income disparity in their markets with 20 and ours with 16 would create a gap that would place them financially in the drivers seat. Slive won't let that happen. So if they go to 20 we go to 20 and equalize the earning potential of our markets to theirs. And, if both the Big 10 and SEC stand at 20 the math says that there is no way for Texas and Oklahoma to compete with the earning power of either of the aforementioned. Therefore they will make a play for a merger with the PAC and will wind up taking the seven state schools. The 20th PAC team would likely be from Nevada or it could be Louisville.
My approach here is based first on what the networks would seek in order to maintain their advantages. For ESPN that means holding onto the key brands in the Southeast and Northeast so that they are not shut out of New England. For Fox that means getting into the Southeast region where they really have no presence. After that it is based on how the earnings of the PAC, Big 10, and SEC could be brought into some equilibrium. The networks have stated a desire for this to keep the regions competitive because that keeps the various populated regions watching which means ad dollars are maximized. Finally it is based on maximizing profits for the schools involved. Having only 60 teams in an upper tier does that.
The only way we ever get to a 4 x 16 model is if the ACC survives and the Big 12 is sacrificed to get everyone to the magic number. But since everyone would want Oklahoma and Kansas and possibly Texas (the SEC might not) that's why it hasn't been accomplished. But anyway that's what I think happens if the ACC implodes which I don't think it will because ESPN will not want it to implode, but they will want exclusive homes for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and perhaps West Virginia. Anyway we'll see. And finally what have the other sources actually been right about?
@ecdawg It will be something like one of those I mentioned although I give a low probability to additions. But on that same note any last minute monetary adjustments to the upside could include expansion. It would be a prime time to do it.
Another long shot possibility would be some kind of joint network venture with the ACC since ESPN has a vested interest in both conferences. As tight lipped as it all has been I do expect a surprise of some kind. A joint network might share market footprints and pay each conference a set fee for states they occupy and a reduced rate in the states carried by the other conference. If they worked something like that then the reduced rate would still be higher than the carriage rate outside of the natural footprint. The only reason I speculate about this is because with that the SEC would not need to expand anywhere into ACC territory and vice versa. That then makes the properties of the Big 12 targets for expansion for both conferences. Why would ESPN do that? To protect brands in the Big 12 from FOX.
Remember the talks about scheduling alliances a month or so back had all three conferences represented with the PAC as well. It could have been an effort by ESPN to move a couple of Big 12 schools to the SEC, broker the move of some to the PAC and perhaps find one or two a home in the ACC. It wouldn't hurt the ACC to have 16 full members and N.C. as a hybrid. Like I said I'm just speculating and way out of the box at that. We'll see on Tuesday.
The most interesting details I will be listening for on Tuesday is what Slive meant when two weeks ago he announced that this press conference was forthcoming and that it would include details on substantial enhancements to the content to be provided.
Now he could have been intimating that news would be revealed of a new 9 conference game format. Or that a scheduling alliance has been reached with the Big 12, the ACC, or both. Or it could be the format he has chosen to announce a couple of additions to the conference family.
The headquarters for the SECN will be in Charlotte. That is logistically understandable for those helping to produce the product, but it also raises some questions since it is outside of the SEC's current footprint.
I think the information about the revenue projections and other numbers in the deal will be important, of course, but that the real news will be centered around the "content enhancements" that Slive has alluded to. I think we will know a lot more about the direction and composition of the conference by Tuesday afternoon.
The EOG at Auburn couldn't find their butts with both hands, let alone a bottle in the purse of a coed entering Jordan Hare. It smells like another kick back type deal to me and not one cooked up by the Chiz. My suspect would be Jacobs.
Anyway, that's a lot of money to check up on players beds, but not a lot to check up on coaches beds...
They'll only ask a favor of Saban once and then he will find an Elephant head in his bed. Seriously it seems to me that those leaving the NCAA are positioning themselves to be a transitional team for the breakaway to form an upper division that is coming.