Daniel Menezes
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@Kyle Rodriguez @dmstorm22 @naptown_ninja Yeah, the joke wasn't as clean as I had hoped.
I do think rollouts are a good idea, but I'm usually against cutting out part of the field on a rollout, but if they can run them close to as effectively as Houston did I'm all for it. I don't know if they have the o-line for it, though.
@Kyle Rodriguez @naptown_ninja I would hate to have him run designed rollouts. He's not used to throwing on the run when there aren't four defensive players closing in on him. All that open space may be a little distracting for him.
@LovinBlue I love how Brad Wells didn't talk about the rest of the statement, "There's nothing we cant do.... we can incorporate Ricky Jean-Francois at guard, have Reggie Wayne play with his 'Wayne Construction' helmet, run the Flying-V from the Mighty Ducks movies, release Peyton Effing Manning, run bubble screens with Wesely Saunders, run home-run throwback on every kick return"
/yes, I'm still bitter about #18
/that last one might be interesting.
@matt_has Don't give me too much credit. Haven't gone back and watched it yet. At some point I will. Have watched every Colts playoff loss in the Manning (and now Luck) era more than once, other than Super Bowl XLIV. Not sure why I won't watch that one, when I did watch the '05 PIT and '08 SD losses (which hurt me more at the time). Hell, I even have seen the New England losses again.
@matt_has Might be. I didn't really notice either TE much. Will go back and watch the game and I'll make sure to look out for the TEs.
In a way, I'm happy they lost here. Avoided some really conflicted feelings with Manning playing the Colts in the playoffs (the one thing I never wanted to see when 18 was cut), and also avoided another likely blowout.
Overall, because of the schedule I thought this team might have a shot at 7 wins, I never expected this. Andrew Luck is as good as advertised. TY Hilton is a great talent. Vick Ballard is a solid running back. Dwayne Allen, who admittedly was invisible today, had a great rookie season. Just a great draft class.
Today, we lost to a better team, but the Colts can easily be where the Ravens are next year. They aren't far away, definitely well ahead of the '4-year rebuild' Jimmy had drawn up. This team needs more of an identity on defense (sadly, part of this is getting rid of Freeney and getting players that fit the scheme better), but they already have one on offense. The o-line obviously has to get better, but to me Luck is a Roethlisberger type who is never going to get rid of the ball quickly. I think he's not a guy who is going to make his o-line look better, but aside from health concerns, play your game Andrew.
Can't complain about this season, and I know that many Colts fans will be bitter, or won't care, but now I can, without any internal conflict, go root for that gentleman in Denver.
Underrated aspect of the drinking game, you will be dead by the Seahawks-Redskins game, so you won't have to listen to them wax poetic about how Russell Wilson and/or RGIII are the greatest rookie QBs EVAR.
Re #9.)
Not sure who wrote that point, but I have to disagree. The reason that Cam won the OROTY award last season so easily was that there was no competition. Andy Dalton got the other three votes, but was worse in every category and went to a better team (and had another high production rookie in AJ Green).
Luck may be better than RGIII and Russell Wilson, but it is definitely more debatable than saying that Andy Dalton (or any other rookie) was better than Cam last year.
Personally, I would go with Luck because RGIII missed some games (which should count for something), and Russell Wilson went to a dramatically better team (the Seahawks were 8-8 last season, and deservedly so, and have a lot of talent everywhere).
I can't believe how close we are to getting the scenario I wanted about a month ago, with the Colts going to Baltimore, the Patriots losing their bye and maybe hosting Pittsburgh, and Denver at the #2.
All is well.
Would love to see the Colts wrap things up in KC next week to take any added pressure away from a potential Pagano return in two weeks.
@GregC @DougEngland Here are the teams I would pick to beat the Colts if they play this weekend:
Obvious Ones:
New England
Denver
Houston (I guess we get to test this on Sunday)
San Francisco
New York Giants
Chicago
Green Bay
Atlanta
Other Teams That I would Pick
Seattle
Pittsburgh (with Ben healthy)
Cincinnati (Geno Atkins would kill Luck)
Some That are on that level
Washington
Dallas
Minnesota
Tampa Bay
So I would say that to me, there are 11 teams that are better than the Colts. Then a few that are around as good. Then a lot that are worse. They are far from the worst team to make the playoffs recently, as I would definitely put the '12 Colts ahead of the '10 Seahawks.
@bradicus18 @DougEngland I think there are a couple of NFC teams that can beat them. I think SF matches up well (we'll see this Sunday Night), but I really think Green Bay or New York can beat the Pats in a potential Super Bowl.
Any team with multiple receiving targets can give the Patriots trouble, and the Packers and Giants have three or four, and great QBs to boot. They should be able to do work against that Patriots secondary. They also have decent defenses. The Packers defensive improvement this year is quite a bit, and the Giants defense just knows how to frustrate that New England offense.
But yeah, unless Ben gets completely healthy, i can only see one team beating New England in the AFC, and that is Denver.
But then again, the Jets lost a Week 13 game in Foxboro 45-3, and won a playoff game six weeks later.
@Colt_Following I hope I didn't sound ungrateful. I thoroughly enjoyed the analysis. I actually found it amazing how close they are in conventional statistics in many areas. I also loved you using yards-per-point, which is a stat I used in a regression class to write a paper on.
I definitely want it to be Ravens/Colts, because as you said, it has a chance of being close, and there are no outside competing rooting interests in the game.
Great job with the research for something that could be irrelevant. I think the Ravens can easily slip to the #4 seed, but with the Steelers winning last week, they have a chance to run the table if Ben comes back, and get the #5 seed.
Anyway, I think the one mitigating factor to this analysis using full season stats is the Colts are markedly worse on the road, and Baltimore is markedly better at home. That last game was their first home loss since December 2010. That is a tough place to play.
It definitely is the best chance for the Colts to win a playoff game, though.
Do you know the best part of the 2012 Colts? That none of it mattered for me.
The Colts could have gone 4-12, but if Andrew Luck and some of the other rookies played well, I wouldn't have cared too much. Instead, they are 8-4 and Andrew Luck looks great, and the other rookies by and large look quite good as well.
The rest of the season is gravy for me. I don't care that the Colts pulling out these games in the regular season just makes it more and more certain that the Colts are set up to be blasted 34-13 in the playoffs. Who cares, really? This season wasn't about the playoffs. I don't care if the Colts are playoff pretenders in 2012. I never expected them to be 'playoff anything' in 2012.
My only hope is that we draw Baltimore. I still think the Pats lose one of the next two games, and the Broncos win out and get the #2 seed. My guess is the Colts end up with the #5 seed, which is probably a draw against Baltimore. Please let this happen.
@AJ_ @paulcareyjr Yeah, and despite his emotional exit, I am pretty sure Manning wants to stick it to Irsay.
@LovinBlue I find this fascinating. For years, Colts fans pointed to stats to defend why Manning was better than the (at that time) statistically inferior, but more successful in terms of wins, Tom Brady. Now, the tables have turned. It is interesting that statiscally, both RGIII and Russell Wilson have been 'better' this season, but I'm in the camp that thinks Luck is the best player.
I have two counters. First is that Luck is a rookie. I will find the pumping up of Luck with these 'eye test' defenses much more grating in Year 5. I think most of us believe that as the team grows, Luck statistically will approach what we all think he will be.
The second is that we aren't using a purely qualitative argument. The statistics that we can point to are more intangible, but meaningful, like the fact that Luck throws further downfield than any other QB, deflating his stats. The fact that Luck is inheriting a 2-14 team (while Wilson inherited a 7-9 team, RGIII a 5-11 team). Luck' advanced stats show him as a better player than his conventional stats (of course, both RGIII and WIlson now have higher DVOA's, which is my advanced stat of choice).
I do find it interesting that even Nate, who for years defended Manning using purely statistical arguments, wrote a column extolling Luck's brilliance yesterday without mentioning one single statistic. Is it that we all look for confirmation bias? I don't know, but I do see some similarities between what we all are saying now and what Pats fans said years and years ago.
@mattshedd I would rather get Baltimore. Plus, I want the Broncos to get a bye. I don't care if the Colts play the Broncos in the divisional round, because, (hey!) the Colts would have won a playoff game.
Here's the scenario I want:
Patriots lose one of their remaining games (probably one of the Houston-San Fran stretch), while the Broncos win out, giving them the bye.
The Ravens smoke-and-mirror their way to 12-4, and get the #3 seed. Steelers get Big Ben back, and run the table after losing to Baltimore, going 10-6 and getting the #5 seed. The Colts go 9-7, and still make the playoffs over a 9-7 Cincinnati team on Conference Record (right now, Bengals have 5 AFC losses, to the Colts 2), and draw Baltimore, while Pittsburgh, with a healthy Ben, go to Foxboro.
That said, this probably won't happen because I want it to happen too much.
My dream scenario is any way the Colts can draw Baltimore, avoiding a 48-20 beatdown in New England, and a game against Peyton, which I'm not mentally ready for until next season when it is forced upon us all.
My top-10 would be pretty similar.
1.) HOU; 2.) SF; 3.) DEN; 4.) ATL; 5.) NE; 6.) GB 7.) CHI; 8.) BAL; 9.) NYG; 10.) SEA
I didn't expect THAT much scoring by the Pats, but of course a team that can score 40 on offense anyway gets three return TDs.
Anyway, as you said, I did see some things to like on that defense going forward. They were getting close to Brady, but the receivers were running all over the place against a bad, bad, bad secondary.
The offense was OK, I guess. Andrew Luck just seemed a little overwhelmed. Same with the rest of the offense. I like that the run game had a decent game against a good rush defense.
As you said, the Colts are still 6-4. They still control their own fate. There is a non-zero chance they draw Baltimore in Round 1 if they do get there, and if that happens, there is a non-zero chance they don't get blown out (that chance is close to zero against Denver, or in a rematch with New England). This is a team that really shouldn't be 6-4, which is fine, because no one expected 6-4 anyway. This is a gravy year. At this point, who cares what happens. I'll take some darkness come January 5th/6th if only because I know it will be a lot brighter come 2014 or so.