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Well it won't be much of a war will it? Unless the reports from the Ukrainian defense minisry that they could not defend Ukraine from
'Dad'sArmy' are part of a cunning plan to lull the Russian generals into a false sense of security,
9 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://www.janes.com/article/35337/war-between-russia-and-ukraine-a-50-50-probability-say-intel-officers
Another writer who can't see the wood for the trees of the Russian regime 'where the government puts on an elaborate performance to maintain appearances of a functioning democratic state ' So they do and so does every Western government. The difference being that Western Charades are treated seriously by an industry of vested interests and the media they own. Interestingly the citizens in the West are on average less and less inclined to follow this lead ,or the paths laid down , by this heritage media. This is the basis of all the political panic over the internet. The childish assumption underlying similar reports is a belief that humans have constructed functioning democracies. Despite the fact that when these claims to democracy are examined there is not one where the combined citizens have any effective control over government actions. Which nevertheless are described hilariously as 'Their governments' .The droning nonsense about Western Democracy mirrors the collapse of its economic theories into theology . Western media assertions have all become a matter of faith not a product of cognition.
1 year ago on Access denied | FP Passport
Kyiv Post an independent publication in Ukraine that supports the opposition in the last poll it quoted gave the following figures. Supporting EU deal 39% ,supporting Customs Union(Russian option) 37%. No majority then for either. But the proponents of the EU deal are determined and get a favorable Western press. And only a person who doesn't think trade important finds the president's change of mind difficult to understand. The Russian regime threatened to take its trade and loans elsewhere if Yanuk signed the deal. The factories in Eastern Ukraine exporting to Russia would close and Yanuk would be toast. Even without the prescriptions that the IMF would enforce when the Ukrainian government was forced to borrow there instead of from Russia. Yanuk might loose the election because of his stupidity in playing the EU card with Putin. If he had signed the deal he is unlikely to have lasted till an election. I cannot understand how the supporters of EU integration can believe that the territorial integrity of Ukraine will survive the decimation of production in Eastern Ukraine when all those in the East have to do to ensure recovery is shift the border West. Western economists discuss the possible benefits to Ukraine in the medium term. They avert there eyes as usual from the short term destruction and misery. Not a habit those living in the East of Ukraine are likely to imitate.
1 year ago on Access denied | Foreign Policy
'In 2008, he went to war in order to punish a refractory, devoutly pro-Western Georgia' No he didn't., The Georgian army trained and armed by the US attacked South Ossetia killing Russian peacekeepers. The US administration with hundreds of troops and spies in the country new the attack was coming and when the Russians went to the security council to get a call for an immediate cessation of violence the move was blocked(according to the BBC reports I heard at the time) by the US and their dog the UK. When it became clear that the Georgian gamble had failed Bush became a peacenik. Then the US government became an advocate of diplomacy.And of the whole affair the most significant point for Europe was this. The Russian leadership didn't know if the US military would be used to support the Georgian adventure( apparently the US government considered this) . In spite of this they resisted the attack militarily and forcefully. As they will do in case of any Western adventure in Ukraine.
It is not apparently true that Ukrainians favor the agreement. Latest poll shows those in favor 39% those in favor of Customs Union 37%. Clearly there is no majority for either. According to Putin Russian loans(Government,bans etc) to Ukraine total $30 billion. Signing the agreement would [precipitate an acceleration of the Ukrainian recession. Every Western economist who predicts benefits for the Ukrainian economy omits the short and medium term. And for good reason. If the Ukrainian government signs the agreement in the short and medium term things are likely to be brutal indeed. P.S don't the Russian government have a few hundred billion Euros in wealth ,rainy day funds. And doesn't the Russian central bank have about half a trillion Euros in reserve. I can't see the cost of Ukraine bothering them for decades. Besides I see that the next Russian cash transfer to Ukraine is to be in exchange for Ukrainian assets in Space and Aircraft production. Those firms that already have relations with Russian firms in these industries. And I think this game is very much over. The Russian regime is likely to have many assets in Ukraine that the EU and US lack. Unless of course Ukrainian independence was followed by a full purge of their security and defense staff?
I don't really think the you can sight the UK and France. The British Parliament voted against joining any military strike against Syria. The French President is in favor of a Syrian war but the French populace are largely against it. As for the rebels. Well US governments have used rebel groupings before(Nicaraguan Contras)only to abandon them later. The group that no one cares about except themselves comes last the Gulf Despots. Plenty of money that has bought them political support in the West. They have been granted a temporary reprieve by the military coup in Egypt. They should rest content with that. It should be noted that if the US is to negotiate directly with Russia over Syria and of course Iran then there is less room for the US's European lick spittles to insert themselves into these processes. Something that any lick spittle would be aggrieved at.
1 year, 3 months ago on Access denied | FP Passport
Well then dissolve the security council. How, goes like this US withdraws from UN. Or chuck Russia and or China off the security council. Or ,grow up. The UN was founded when the influence of the West on world affairs was at its height. No succeeding body will be half as favorable to western powers. Why on earth should the UK and France be permanent members while India , Pakistan and Brazil are not ? Because they were on the winning side in the Second World War. Everybody but you apparently knows the score. The end of the UN will mark the end of the hegemony of the US and its European colonies. So they will just have to swill down the consequences of the decline in their economic and political powers. Though they are free to rant to themselves while carefully avoiding consequential acts. Known as Big Talk.
1 year, 4 months ago on Access denied | The Cable
Apparently Putin didn't consider the acidic effects of Snowden's revelations on the European colonies of the Spy and Lie empire. Which is strange as the NSA police state tactics are already figuring in the election for German governor under the divine Obama. Snowden out of jail keeps his revelations very much alive in Europe.
1 year, 4 months ago on Access denied | Foreign Policy
The spying is concentrated apparently on well known foes of the US like Germany. Snowden's revelations have painted every large European state as a US colony. With Britain figuring as the most loyal of the Empires retainers. The US government would be well advised to exploit the current generation of European political lackeys to the greatest possible extent. They are likely to find the next generation more standoffish.
1 year, 4 months ago on Access denied | FP Passport
This publication should change it name to Foreign Propoganda. Alexey Navalny is a right wing populist who had flirted with Fascist. He was let out because he has no political base,little popular support and ideas on the economy that Oligarchs love and the Russians do not. In other words he was let out precisely so he could stand for Mayor of Moscow and not just loose but get humiliated. If you bothered to follow the opinion polls you would know that the more Russians find out about what he stands for the more they distrust him. None of this matters to your publication which aims to maintain a constant source of anti Putin propaganda that obscures completely the basis for Putin success. So instead of actually identifying Putin's real vulnerabilities you identify his strong points as weaknesses. Anyone who follows the trajectory of the stories you run on Russia with the actual outcomes will see what a poor job you do of informing your readers as to what is actually occurring in Russia.
1 year, 5 months ago on Access denied | Foreign Policy
Those on the Western payroll were primed to be shocked and dismayed that after all is what they are paid for. To put a negative spin on every outcome in the Russian regimes outcome space. I wasn't. Every Western publication has bombarded its reader with stories of universal Russian corruption. Why would I be surprised then at Navalny's trial and conviction? I recognised the name and Googled up his history. An opportunist populist nationalist who flirts with the Fascist fringe. A man who had good things to say after his conviction about the acquisition of wealth by Oligarchs( via the BBC) . Which ties in neatly with his standing in the latest opinion poll for Moscow major at 8%. If he adds a song to his act like Pussy Riot he might make the low teens.
1 year, 5 months ago on Access denied | FP Passport
You must know that the same spectrum of opinion from left to right supports Snowden in France. In Europe at least Obama's legacy has been secured next to Richard Nixons.
Well all this from a US perspective. Now giving Snowden permanent sanctuary in Russia may sour relations with the US government but it will undermine the entire European political campaign ,based on human rights, waged by the Spy and Lie Empires political allies. If I was Putin I'd grant Snowden Russian citizenship and give him diplomatic status. Every time I had a press conference with a European leader he''d be present. And if the European governor of the Spy and Lie Empire mentioned human rights I'd say 'That man there revealed the mass spying on your country's citizens by a foreign state. A gross violation of your citizen's human rights to privacy according to the European Convention on Human Rights. Yet you couldn't offer him asylum'. Whether Snowden comes or goes isn't going to stop the forces he's set in motion is it.
This piece is so stupid that the writer should be awarded chump of the year ' offer the mullahs a guarantee that the United States will not plump for regime change'. Would that be a paper guarantee ,or a Gold plated guarantee. Perhaps one they could take to the bank. Only discovering when the cruise missiles turned up overhead that it was worthless. If the USA leadership is a dim witted as this writer then after the US/NATO/Israel intervene directly without a UN fig leaf in Syria Iran will receive a guarantee that they can count on. An absolutely enormous quantity of modern Russian arms. What holds back Obama ,Lord of the Spy Empire and Lie Empire, is the knowledge of what Russian reaction to direct Western military intervention in Syria would be. How does he know?Putin told him. So off you go then don't let that 'apparatchik' stand in your way. What does the US care what weapons the Iranians have at their disposal. USA,USA,USA.
No not exactly the rebellion looked like a useful tool for fragmenting the Iranian alliances. With Syria under Western proxy control Hezbollah would be doomed in Lebanon. And parts of Iraq(particularly Sunni dominated parts near the Syrian border) could be split off leaving an Iraqi rump pressed up against Iran. Unfortunately for the US everybody knew about their intentions. Iran committed itself publicly to the defence of the Syrian regime of Assad. And Hezbollah launched a pre-emptive first strike(probably got that idea from Israel). Russia ,after Libya, said no way and made it clear they were prepared to go 'The whole nine yards'. Now if Obama hadn't dithered. First deciding correctly to stay far far away from the building imbroglio in Syria. Then changing his mind after Bill talked nonsense. He wouldn't now look like a jerk. Still he looks a lot better than the British P.M
David Cameron. In Britain neither politicians nor populace won't anything to do with the rebels. Atheism has been socially acceptable in Britain for some time. And cannibalism outlawed. The rebels have it the other way round in the clips shown on British TV.
1 year, 6 months ago on Access denied | Foreign Policy
Yes there are an enormous number of benefits to be obtained by both parties from a more balanced relationship. But the problem is the US political regime is less able to accommodate difference now than ever. It shows little or no sign of taking seriously Russian concerns on anything. I'm afraid cancelling a project because its very expensive and doesn't in fact yet work doesn't count. You can easily see this rapprochement, is doomed. Every article I have ever read about the government of Russia in the US press has been negative. Every article has been bounded still by the polar opposition of the Cold War. As was discovered by investigations into the transmission of scientific paradigms the opponents of relativity did not change their mind they just got old and died. Similarly w.r.t. Russia all the US Cold War ideologues( politicians and press) will have to pass on before anything substantial changes. Long way to go still. Obama will no more be able to stand against the Cold Warriors than he was able to stand against the pressure to arm the Syrian rebels.
The proof of this pudding will be in the eating. If Hezbollah wins it cam move on to battles closer to home. At present there appears to be no open military challenge to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Just a lot of talk that will be settled one way or the other by the path Hezbollah takes out of Syria. With their shield or on it.
Yes a blow that most Russian's won't know or care about. As for the various economic master minds Harvard trained. One of the few good things about the current travails of the Capitalist process is that when the crisis hit for a while they kept their self serving crap to themselves. Western economists should save the various institutions that fund them some money and merge with the corresponding theology departments. The economics of happiness ,pairing problems as a science it its a bloody good laugh.
A little rational thought would go along way here. 'the Kremlin still sees the Americans as the "main enemy,"' . If countries are ranked by the number of other governments they attempt to subvert or overthrow the US would head this list. Who could possibly trust the US government given its history. Not to mention the fact that a large proportion of its own citizens don't trust the US government either. Home or abroad its regarded with suspicion. Russia,China,South America,Africa, India distrust of US policy spans the globe. Naturally I exclude the US political colonies in Europe.
1 year, 7 months ago on Access denied | Foreign Policy
Nobody who had the least understanding of what the Russian Bolsheviks intended could fit their failure into some greater Russia scenario. The revolution had clearly failed by 1924. Still the aim here is not any attempt to understands Russia but rather a playground response to the rise of new Russian regime after the crisis precipitated by the implosion of the previous model. You don't like them. Of course not. They are outsiders. Of course they are. Go out and play with your friends then.
'In other words, New START provided Moscow an incentive to go up, not down, in strategic nuclear arms' this statement is absurd. The treaty sets a limit and I have or enlarge a capacity to construct nuclear weapons. How many I construct will be fixed by the treaty. It forces me to make a guess about my actual nuclear military needs and not just produce these weapons according to my capacity for building rockets and cruise missiles. I don't mention war heads since the Russians are estimated to have between 7 and 10 thousand this constraint does not operate. Any way as I have observed in other US publications rationality about the Russian regime is in short supply. Let us hope for all our sakes it is more apparent in US dealings with China.
Its all a bit simplistic about the EU and Russia. At least one EU state Cyprus seems to be owned by Russian banks. And EU Russian relations are much more important to the future of all European states than EU Ukrainian relations. Which seem to be a strong Cold War fixation the further East you go.in Europe. In any case the Russian regime seems to be sticking to bourgeois niceties in asserting that the contract is a sacred document. The Ukrainian government signed on the dotted line and must abide by the terms of purchase of Russian gas. I don't think legally Ukraine has a leg to stand on. So the EU doesn't mention it. And if push comes to shove I suspect that the model that is realised will follow Kosovo,South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
1 year, 10 months ago on Access denied | FP Passport
A species that has changed the composition of its planets atmoshpere. Deployed military systems capable of bringing about its extinction. Whose members are encouraged to believe 'the only thing we have to fear is fear itself." will soon be joining the Dodo. As for the confidence elsewhere. This is the same confidence that led to the Banking collapse. And will soon repeat itself at the biological level once externalities from genetic engineering and nano technology have reworked our living space. Nonsense in favour of continuity of social organisation only shows that at a deep deep level as a species we are to stupid to survive. There is definitely more to species stupidity than stupidity itself. There are for instance the consequences of a historically short run sequence of bone headed acts.
2 years ago on Conversation @ http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/06/tk