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"I can pretty much guarantee that the AJ Burnett qualifying offer scenario is going to repeat itself in full form with Martin this coming winter."
I'm going to disagree. If Martin roughly matches his performance from last year, he'll be looking for a multi-year deal with a big payoff - and with the increasing acknowledgement of the value of catcher defense, someone will be likely to give it to him. If he bombs (avert), he would accept a deal below QO dollars.
So in other words, if he's good enough to merit a QO, there's almost no chance he'll accept one so extending it means a free draft choice for the Pirates. If he's bad enough that he'd be willing to take a QO, there's no reason to extend one because the Pirates would be able to re-sign him at a lower price if they want (which they shouldn't).
3 weeks, 2 days ago on The status quo: Position players