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This must have been the most fascinating presentation of the whole "geek-fest".
I have a lot of issues with the analytics approach but if there's one thing that i'm glad for ,is the fact that they are paving the way for the loss of generalities.I mean how many times you 've seen phrases like "they choked under pressure","the chemistry isn't there","Not playing hard" etc.? If there's a future where people have to back their claims with data ,it's gonna be for the better.
Now imagine what the Spurs heartrate synchronity ,during a play ,would look like...
2 months, 3 weeks ago on The Advanced Statistics Of Team Chemistry
@Ignarus My choice of words is at fault there.I don't consider a "specialist" a bad label for a player.I totally aknowledge that a mobile defensive 7 footer is a rarity but it's also the "mind that moves the feet".Chandler knows that he maximizes his efficiency by scoring most of his possesions by rolling hard.That's his thing offensively and he has accepted it.
On the three ball and crisp ball movement you're totally correct but there were times when the ball movement couldn't lead to open shots so the "go to" option was dirk and his unique game.Let's not forget that when you have a player that commands defensive attention ,those corner threes are easier to found in a spread offense.It's not though that the Mavs played a gimmicky offense like the Rockets who shoot threes even contested ,and always look for contact at the rim, because that's what drives efficiency numbers up.
2 months, 3 weeks ago on The Dissection of Shot Selection: Historical Trends
Very nice article ,and i was waiting for a historical presentation of shot selection changes, but i believe you left one big factor outside your analysis.The 2000- 2005 years were the era of iso play and the last showdown of dominant post players.Every team was looking to find a combination of mcgrady,kobe,carter or ai to pair with a guy like shaq and yao.So what the first slope in the graph is showing is iso oriented ,outstanding, but inefficient ball handlers (some of them of the combo guard variety) looking to please the crowd more ,combined with iso low post dominant scorers.
Is this a player's league? Yes ,but also there were certain rule changes that led to pnr heavy sets of today and drive and kick opportunities for corner 3's etc.The thing is when you allow the first line of defence ,the man who picks up the ball handler,to slow down his opposition by using hand checking while your defence has retreated inside ,to protect the restricted area what this does is three things:1) there are less opportunities to create drive n kick corner threes by dribble drive or motion screening (screen the screener ,double screens or the trendy horns sets of today, which are also a byproduct of more zone defence applied), 2)also less opportunities to get fouled at the rim 3)the ball handler naturally is drawn to the midrange area where there is more space and pull up for inefficient long two's(a.k.a the monta ellis game).
So i'm not really sure that those changes in efficiency have to do more with teams embracing advanced analytics ,or the need to maximize offenses into a set of rules that let them operate much more efficiently by default.Now we value much more things like three point specialists and mobile bigs who can defend the pick n roll rather than the traditional muscle monster on the low block or the jordan type scorer.
Lastly, don't forget that the mavericks won a championship with a primary inefficient skill-set maximized into elite level- Dirks' fadeaway long twos ,as their go to option.However they had a p'n'r specialist big in Chandler who could also defend the most commonly used set. And that's a hole that has them exposed since then.
I'm thinking of Steven.Frigging.Seagal.With a hookshot.Not bad...Thanks Pandian ,for the nightmares.
5 months, 1 week ago on Roy Hibbert and Chelsea Peretti Are Best Friends 4 Eva
@steppxxxxz I agree with you on two things:First that its the combination of numbers and real game action that speaks the truth.No one said that metrics are the holy means to an end.The fact is that these times you can't be a bball writer and not refer to them.Sad or not ,that's the state right now.Otherwise you wonder why you end up writing for bleacher report.
Second point is that the actual geek culture is the fact we are discussing and overanalyzing too much in the regular season.It doesn't really mean anything for teams like OKC or the Spurs.They are just looking to stay healthy.
Imagine Coach Pop join the conversation? "You guys are wasting my time.I'm gonna play Diaw and Mills instead."
5 months, 2 weeks ago on Adventures In Lineup Misadventures: Scott Brooks
@steppxxxxz How about stats that paint the picture of the "opposition" OKC is facing.Who are the real bangers at the 4 spot anyway? Z-Bo ,Big Baby and umm...DeJuan Blair.Right...All the other PFs are either jumpshooting-floor spacers (Ryan Anderson,Kevin Love,Dirk) ,undersized superstars (Lebron,Melo,J-Smoove) , pure defensive-rebounding specialists(Faried,Kardashian) or simply "legends"(Bargnani and Boozer). So what really Brooks is afraid is Scola or Boozer wearing down KD?It makes a lot of sense.So advanced stats combined with old school "watch the gamezzz" are pretty accurate if you take the opposition into account.The fact is that DRTG or ORTG doesn't show you how having KD at the 4 ,messes up the opponnent's rotation,like having the opponents 3 guarding KD so the 4 should guard ,chase behind screens and close down on Martin.And it's not like there is some big sample size of games at the moment,so expect those ratings to go down.To say numbers suck just because you can't interpret them into basketball action is ignorant.But all hoopwriters are hipsters with fake glasses ,and they are stealing our girlfriends with all that advanced stats craze......
You can't stop Beasley's surrealism.You can only hope to contain it.His game is as watchable ,as a W.Burroughs novel is readable...
5 months, 2 weeks ago on The Michael Beasley Experience