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Lies, damn lies, and statistics!  Please don't mix-and match stats to make things seem impressive. To wit:  Russell Wilson has second fewest INTs among QBs who have taken at least half their team's snaps?  What kind of messed up logic is that? What if all their snaps are handoffs, then they'd have zero INTs.  Is "taking half your team's snaps" even a statistic? Look at TD ratio and INT ratio--which is automatically equalized across all passers because it's the number of TDs/INTs divided by the number of passes.  Andrew Luck's giant TD number is tempered by his massive number of attempts (though his rate is still well above Wilson's and his raw number of passing TDs is more than double!) .  Wilson threw just 44 in the last two games (thanks to a stellar run game) and he's good, so of course he has very few INTs in that time. 


Advanced metrics like DVOA put Wilson at just #22 among NFL QBs. With the average NFL QB throwing a pick about 2.5% of the time, Wilson's rate of 1.4% is very good.  But Rodgers with 1.0% is better, and Big Ben is also at 1.4% (but with 136 more attempts, he has just two more picks--basically Ben has thrown in his first 12 games more than Wilson will all year). By pass attempts, Wilson has been asked to bear a much smaller portion of the offense than other top QBs (his RB and D allow this to work--they're a great team). He's thrown 82% as much as Manning, 76% as much as Roethlisberger, 73% of Brees, 89% of Rodgers, 80% of Brady, and 72% of Luck.  At the current rate, Luck will finish the regular season with 200 more passes than Wilson, or the equivalent of 6.3 of WIlson's typical games more--a QB like these other guys is carrying much more weight than Wilson.


In terms of TD rates, those other QBs all range from 5.1% (Ben) to 7.2% (Rodgers) and average 6.1% with Wilson producing passing TDs at a clip of only 4.1%.  So they all throw more AND score at a higher rate, which, like compound interest, adds even more value.


Wilson's rushing/scrambling/play-extending contributions are enormous, but you do a disservice to the Seattle D and Lynch by declaring him the divisional MVP. The reason an awesome player like JJ Watt won't win the MVP is because even with all his contributions, he doesn't affect the game as much as a 600+ pass attempt QB with similar excellent stats, and neither does a QB who projects to throw fewer than 500 times. Wilson is playing very well indeed, but it's not at an MVP level because he does not produce enough.

9 hours, 39 minutes ago on Conversation @ http://thesportsdaily.net/

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Regarding Dallas, I guess this will be our real playoff test. TY limping and Reggie fading?  uh-oh.  A team with a top TE vs our soft middle pass defense?  uh-oh.  My big hope is that broken-hand Demarco Murray plays and is (A) ineffective and (B) coughs it up.  I think Witten will go Gronk on us, but also think we'll be able to mostly contain their run game, and therefore maybe defuse their play-action passing.  Their vaunted OL is missing 1.5 starters, both on the right side!  If Davis contains Dez to some extent, and Witten is our main weakness on D... we should be able to hold them to 24 or 27.  Romo is also subject to horrible brain farts--we can hope.


The Offense needs to get on track and act as a unit for the playoffs and this is the time to work on it--road game against a decent team. I don't know where Dallas is vulnerable but we'd need at least 24 pts.  They've been ordinary at best at home this year...  I think a 28-27 Colts win is possible.

2 days, 17 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-17-texans-10.html

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A minor work of minimalist art.  I often think of my hens as egg-producing slaves but that's evened out by my "ownership" of two cats, for whom the humans are the slaves. "Feed me at 4 a.m., boy, or you'll be bleeding from places you didn't know you had.  And then clean up the puddle of urine I just left. Drat, is the sofa really that absorbent?  Sorry." And don't even start on my son's snake and fish. All I do is feed and clean, feed and clean.  I am enslaved by fish!  Man, am I pathetic.


The whole racist thing made my head explode.  My kids come home from school and everything is "racist." Not sure if they get it from the Internet or school itself.  "Dad, you told an Italian joke, that's so racist!"  "Mark, (A) how is it racist? and (B) I'm half Italian! Plus, (C), go to your room!"  "You're sending me to my room, that's racist."  Only a slight exaggeration.


I hate to compare the two teams, but the Bumblebees and Colts have some frustrating similarities in that it's hard to predict which team will show up, but both can win on off-day as well. We just do THAT better than they do. I still want sweet sweet revenge on them, but would be happy if they beat up the Pats first

6 days, 10 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-15-2.html

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@Brad Cronin  Hey, hold on there... Tennessee spent multiple first round draft picks and big FA money on their OL and ... and...,um oh, never mind.


In other news, does Bob Sanders have a son who is old enough to play yet?


And finally, it was wistful fun watching Freeney punch around Brady last night. No sacks, but made him eat dirt a few times.

1 week, 2 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-25-browns-24.html

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Man, did the Fins look horrible last week against the Jets. I be happy to play them! Balt sans Ngata would be fine. Pitt has multiple personality disorder, and at least one of them can be dangerous (though I till want sweet revenge).


I'm mainly thinking of rounds 2 and 3--2014 Colts can beat Den in Den, but I don't think NE in NE. Who out there can take care of the Pats for us? SD?  I'd like some revenge on them as well.


Sweet, An all-playoff-revenge post-season for Indy!  Pitt, then Den (no playoff revenge) hen SD at home in the AFCCG, then... New Orleans?  Maybe not.

1 week, 6 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-14-2.html

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Since we're talking a lot about the line, (tackle and guard heavy discussions), I have to address the center position.  Is Jjonnatthonn getting any better? He started pretty horribly, inexplicably replacing Shipley two months ago.  (Okay, the one explanation I read was Pagano wanted to establish a long-term rapport with Luck... while snapping it over his head, getting him killed, and feeding JJ Watt?  Maybe losing games? Whatever. Way to develop rapport. What the hell did Shipley *really* do to Pagano? Run over his dog, is my bet.)  Anyway, how are we doing at C?


Finally, TY's back-shoulder sideline catch around the 5 yard line was insane as both a pass and catch. They kind of toss where you say "no way no way no way" on release because it's going out of bounds and behind the receiver, and then when it's caught you try to figure out how the hell they did that. Even in slo-mo it looks impossible. Luck said it in an interview: TY is great at not putting up his hands until the very last second (like both 88 and 87).

2 weeks, 2 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-49-redskins-27.html

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Nate,

I think I am rooting for the Ravens to win AFCN with an<= record to Colts so we're #3 and they're #4 (Cincy's tie messes things up, as does the loss to Pitt). No faith in getting a bye.


Want to face Pitt in 1st round and reverse karma from 5 playoff losses and 2005 season in particular (reg season win/playoff loss vs Pitt). Also, screw you, Kordell Stewart! I think Indy can take Denver in Den more likely that Pats in NE. Maybe we get a replay of 2006 post-season. After all, last week I felt as if we gave up 400 yards rushing to the Jags all over again....

3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-13-2.html

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Ben, a fine read as always. 


I'm hoping not, but is there any chance that Satele is like Spinal Tap's drummer? Or Snape applying for the DODA job?  (Glad to mix metaphors and references any time I can) There was plenty of talk a few years back (pre-TY Hilton) that all our third round picks were cursed.  Hoping this does not apply to C, too. On the plus side, the curses seem to end eventually....

4 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you like the play?


Ugh.  The only consolation I took away from 2010 was that the SB champ Packers were the only team more injured than we were. And now it turns out I was wrong on two counts--Cleveland was worse off, but the Packers slightly healthier.  Of course we nearly won it all in 2009 with the 2nd worst AGL.  Ironically, the season with our worst record was our "healthiest." Of course losing the GOAT QB should count quadruple in this measure....

4 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/injuries-anomalies-adjusted-games-lost-from-2009-2013.html

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@erhall01 I suspect every team has fans that feel the same way, and about 1/3 to 1/2 are justified.  A few years back (2010?) I thought the Colts were a SB team except for all the injuries. Turns out they were 2nd most injured that year... but the team that lost more starter games to injury was the Packers, who won it all. So I've stopped griping myself. This is terrible news and may affect not only this year, but future years if Luck is unable to continue developing along the proper trajectory. The interior OL was our thinnest unit, IMO, and is now thinner. That being said... next man up!

4 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/colts-place-donald-thomas-on-ir-for-2nd-straight-year-sign-udfa-eric-pike.html

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This garbage (ESPN's not Kyle's) is hardly worth commenting on, but here's where a huge fault lies.  #32 in "draft" must be based entirely on 2014.  Yet they are ranking for the next three years, so I guess the stellar A+ 2012 draft and mediocre 2013 draft never happened?  (And those players were all abducted by aliens and won't contribute in the next three years.)  And they apparently assume future drafts will all involve trading away a first rounder for a dubious starter?  That's idiotic. Do they really believe the team is 12 slots worse in 2014 than 2013?


I am a financial analyst and one of the very first things an old boss told me when valuing an asset was NEVER tell a client "well, that's what the numbers say." These guys are inputting semi-valid opinions of independent variables and without assessing the logic of the whole, it's spitting out garbage.

5 months ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/colts-ranked-21st-in-espns-futures-power-rankings.html

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"Nevertheless, he tested positive for a PED, and the league may not ...."  Technically, he tested positive for a masking agent. Big difference that a lot of media yahoos may ignore.  I suspect he has a mountain of evidence to support his case, were this an actual courtroom event.  But the NFL is not. 


Just a huge, stupid mistake by him. Jeez, these guys know they cannot ingest anything out of the ordinary without checking--with the proper authorities-first.  (I once had an MD prescribe what he said were antibiotics for an ear infection. Thy did not work.  Some time later, my bro-in-law, also an MD, said, "No, that is a decongestant.") Robert, Robert Robert, I hate that this will be lumped in with the Whizzinator and Richard Sherman's Adderal use (h got off on a technicality, not on proven innocence)


On the flip side, congrats on the rowing family. Catch up on your sleep now, my friend.

7 months ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/robert-mathis-faces-4-game-p-e-d-suspension-possibly-over-fertility-treatments.html

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Wow, the top clip shows his QB short-arming like 80% of the throws. Not bad, but most are back-hip throws for a guy who is running, not pivoting (i.e. leading him might have given him some YAC).  One thing I did NOT like, but that is correctable, is he looks for the ball WAY too early. 87 will fix that. All in all, pretty good looking.

7 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/uncategorized/colts-snag-wr-donte-moncrief-with-the-90th-overall-pick.html

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This looks like a fine pic. I viewed WR as a bit of a luxury or second-tier need. Yes we'll need one next year, but there are guys we need more this year. Unless Delano Howell has recently stated breaking granite slabs with the power of his mind and shooting pigeons out of the sky with his laser vision.  Then I guess we're cool at safety. And if an "X-Men: Indianapolis" movie is in the works, we're pretty much set there as well.

7 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/uncategorized/colts-snag-wr-donte-moncrief-with-the-90th-overall-pick.html

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Aaaaaand... the head-scratching commences. Probably not a bad pick (damned by faint praise) but not at all hat anybody was thinking. The only thing stranger would have been QB. Hey, if a QB was BPA would they have taken him?

7 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/uncategorized/14126.html

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@ECB I'm not sure Brown's production from his first four seasons was the reason he was not resigned.  Last year's production and his refusal to give up when things looked grim more than merited signing, him; problem was, he was one of he top FA RBs and got a market deal at $3.0-$3.5M per year. Our entire current backfield (Ballard, Bradshaw, TRich) costs a hair more than that, and if healthy, the team feels they can all produce a well as Brown for less. His nagging injury history prior to 2013 may have factored in.

If there were 5 clearly superior RB FAs on the market and Brown looked like a $2.0M player given that market, I think they might have resigned him.

7 months, 4 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/uncategorized/colts-go-back-to-work-four-things-to-keep-an-eye-on-in-2014.html

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Wasn't it Josh Gordy who officially put the KC playoff game away by batting away Smith's final pass (or maybe it was just body positioning to force the WR out of bounds). Regardless, it was a good defensive play (on a marginal pass) when we needed it. I'd hate for Sergio Brown to leave special teams (small of me, I know).

7 months, 4 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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If you judge by 2013 records (not always the smartest idea) it' an EZ sate-AFCS was bad, as was NFCE, and ACN was so-so.  The other div champs will be tough, of course... and all those weak 2013 teams could be improved.  Except the Jags, of course.

8 months ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@thellamajockey @DougEngland Wow, that is a very interesting idea about PUP for Reggie and maybe trading one of the promising ids to a team whose WR goes down early.... I am sure RW would HATE it--a guy who drives a dump truck to training camp with a hard hat on--he wants to work and get a job done and not be put on a shelf, but it could be the smart move. May depend on schedule, too.

8 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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Totally off-topic, but I just saw a great Grigson quote about Donald Thomas:  "He’s stronger than 9 acres of garlic up top."  This totally makes me wary, of course, because their other flamboyant phrases ("rolling ball of butcher knives"--Pagano on Richardson and "800-lb safe in the middle"--Pagano on Chapman) have hardly been the stuff of NFL legend. We do have a front office with a gift for phrasing things, however. If they start tossing around "caveman neckbeard" we can anticipate a down season for Luck. 

8 months, 3 weeks ago on Colts 2014 Draft Order Finalized

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I'll join the hit parade of happy fans. This I darn good news.

9 months, 1 week ago on Colts Sign WR Hakeem Nicks to a 1-Year Deal

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Yeesh... Glad he's aboard, but the money scares me. If Mathis has another great year and Werner matures and Jones brings QB pressure from the DE slot while he and Jackson limit the run, Vontae should have a fine year that justifies the price.  But if we generate no QB pressure, nobody can cover a good WR for 6-7 seconds, it'll look like wasted money on Davis.  I'll remain optimistic, but cautious.

9 months, 1 week ago on Colts Re-Sign Vontae Davis

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@MarcusDugan  Marcus, an upgrade you say? I say that you, bound head-to-toe in duct tape, with your feet in cement and a jester hat on your head (not entirely sure why) would be an upgrade. A scarecrow with halitosis would be an upgrade.  Hyperbole? Perhaps. I'll draw the line at a 56 year-old Ray Donaldson.. No... no, I won't.  Ray, the door's open. Bring your cane.

9 months, 2 weeks ago on Goodbye, Samson Satele

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@Lou Pin @Stuebers_Inn I'm stunned! Did not recall that.

10 months, 4 weeks ago on Good News Tuesday: The Last Edition

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@Lou Pin  Nice work, Lou, you sunny optimist, you.  I love it that your Colts glass is always half full (or more!). My only "complaint" (much too strong a word) would be to ask that you somehow eliminate the Satele images. Or superimpose Alex Mack's or Evan Dietrich-Smith's face....?

10 months, 4 weeks ago on Good News Tuesday: The Last Edition

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@ikcl  You are WRONG!, he explained.  (there, that wind you up enough?)  Wouldn't want you to get bored in the off-season....   It's almost funny that the two areas where they said "This is most important" their efforts came to naught, and the reasons for our success were the other stuff. It's like if I said to my wife and publicly declared, having a beautiful lawn is the most important thing. I'll spend a ton on supplies, equipment, seed, fertilizer, irrigation and in the end, it sucks. She decides I am incompetent and hires a gardener.  Our front office is not incompetent and will not be replaced, but they fell far short of their stated goals... what will thy do next year? More of the same?  Clone Erik Walden, RJF, and Trent Richardson?  Yikes! will that make us any better? No. Let's hope they learn and are adaptable or they will waste Luck's prime.

10 months, 4 weeks ago on Franchise Building: It's All About Efficiency

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@NelsOlson  That is true to some extent--a healthy receiving corps + Luck should be very good. I cannot wait to see Allen and Reggie back, and a refined seasoned, and mature Rogers as well. But the things the "run philosophy" can do to LIMIT the passing game includes things like the Richardson trade which reduces our draft picks in 2014, reducing our ability to get bargain-priced top talent. That hurts the whole team. (If they valued running less, they could have signed any available back for $1M, gotten similar production, and kept the draft choice. Their RUN ideology drove that deal, not merely the injuries.)     They can focus on signing OL who are better run blockers than pass blockers, again diminishing the pass game and maybe Luck's health. They can sign run-stoppers at the expense of signing pass rushers and cover CB and Safeties. That ignores league-wide trends and reduces any competitive advantage Luck and the receiving corps give us, if your D cannot compete in the league in 2014 because it is built to play football circa 1975.

10 months, 4 weeks ago on Franchise Building: It's All About Efficiency

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@chip_bennett  Yep. I thought Blount was pretty pedestrian, until he kneed us all in the privates (thanks to a fine defensive effort). 1 score game, on the road in the playoffs, with Luck, in the 4th quarter? Can't ask much more than that. Those damn turnovers and field position.

10 months, 4 weeks ago on Franchise Building: It's All About Efficiency

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@zgs1288 And it paid off with the NFCCG win.

11 months ago on Vernon Davis, free agent watch

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Lou, you mean Vernon's brother, Vontae.  My first thought was "another TE? We have two good ones!" Then I realized the mistake.

11 months ago on Vernon Davis, free agent watch

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@MarcusDugan @Brent_Dragoo Ricky Williams has/had a somewhat debilitating social disorder and after a few disappointing seasons (and a lot of medicinal drugs) managed an 1,800 yard season.      What concerned me is the suggestion that he's having problems at practice, where you are in a safe, controlled environment. Jeez, if he can't even hit a hole hard in practice...?  Don't want to think about it.

11 months ago on Colts Notebook: Ryan Grigson Discusses the Offseason Ahead

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@MarcusDugan @AJ_  Ouch, ouch, ouch.  I really shouldn't be laughing at this stuff. But I am.  Maybe they're using the carts so they don't injure themselves. Their jobs probably require it. Just like football players can't ski or sky-dive, these BMI-enhanced folks have stringent limitations on what they are allowed to do lest they pull a hammy, pile-drive their shin-bones into the ground, or unbalance the earth in its orbit.

11 months ago on Colts Notebook: Ryan Grigson Discusses the Offseason Ahead

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Someone needs to teach Grigs the definitions of "fact" and "opinion."  THAT, my friends, is a fact.

11 months ago on Colts Notebook: Ryan Grigson Discusses the Offseason Ahead

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Thinking back to the skeptical articles written when these guys were signed, I have to say #1 , hey, you guys are pretty sharp.  Toler's injury history was not a mirage (as predicted). TRich is... TRich (as predicted).  Walden, glad to say, was not as bad as feared. Not special, just not horrid (which was speculated). RJF's biggest asset, when signed, was supposed to be versatility on the DL in a 3-4 (any position if needed). Not sure we've reaped the rewards of that, but we may need that some day.       Werner might make a leap in year 2 (or at least be healthy), which could plaster over a lot of cracks in the D. More pressure on QBs makes it easier for DBs to cover receivers. Grigson, please keep that in mind if that does happen next year, the DBs didn't suddenly get good (i.e. let's not extend them!).       It was hard for him to go wrong with Luck as the first pick.  Grigs also did a fine job with other draft picks, Fleener, Allen, TY, etc.  But this surely will be the year when a GM earns his salary--no first rounder, a lot of needs, and a bit of cap room, but not too much, with that looming Luck extension a few years distant.

11 months ago on 2014 Salary Cap Impact for Cutting Notable Colts

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@Colts365 @ColtsAuth_Kyle @Coltsfanwilson  Can't Luck just snap it to himself? We used to do that all the time playing in the street.... and he's WAY better than my brother.

11 months ago on 2014 Salary Cap Impact for Cutting Notable Colts

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@smonroe @MarcusDugan All it takes is one fool with a checkbook. I'd like 41 back, but not as a full time starter, an not for a lot of money. $1.5M per year for two years? I think the pass-rushers saw how the market treats 30 year old guys at a highly valued spot--Abraham, Freeney, and Co were surprised, to say the least, at how little they could command.    But if somebody's starting S blows out a knee in June and there's no clear replacement, AND they think they're one or two players away, 41 might get his money. 

11 months, 1 week ago on Colts Notebook: "Like Last Day of School"

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IIRC Rogers was targeted 4-5 times and had at least 3 drops. Maybe they were contested but we've seen him mike those catches before. A bit disappointing.  The D had a nice run in the 2nd/3rd quarters I believe, holding the Pats to 4 3-and-outs in five possessions. That's when the O has to capitalize on it and build momentum and go for the jugular.  Didn't quite wok, and after holding the Pats barely in check for that time, the am burst in the 4th Q.   Ah, well, it just wasn't there. I still wonder why some of those other teams didn't run on us more, regardless of score.  Good move, BB.  I'm pretty hopeful for next year. On top of it all, Dierdorf was not horrible. Sure they missed Mathis's strip sack with the "Dan's Retiring" tear-jerker-attempt, but for the first 55 minutes of gametime he was at least average and his most annoying problem was harping over and over on the Pats run count. Dude, we heard it the first time, find something else to provide "insight" about.

11 months, 1 week ago on DIVISIONAL ROUND REPORT CARD: COLTS AT PATRIOTS

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@MarcusDugan  Barnwell's preview on Grantland ended with basically, eh, it's a tossup. A lot of people will se one narrative or another (emotional momentum, or emotional exhaustion) but for me, I'll go with turnovers. He was right. It was a close, one-score game but for the picks on our side and recovered fumbles for the Pats. Mathis finally got his strip sack (better late than never) but nobody had a clue where the ball went until #70 fell on it. That stung. Literally every bounce of the ball went the Pats' way, from the missed tackles, ref no-calls, good coaching decisions, Havili's bobbled INT, the Punt that could have been a TD then ended up being just a safety (net 5 pt loss). And Rogers dropping every one of his targets.  Dayum.     Seriously, if three unusual plays went the other way its a tie game--not one that we should have won, but a much closer contest: Havili hanging on to the ball, The safety being a TD, and somebody tripping Blount on the 73 yarder.  Their run game was steady and not bad, but until that point, they averaged under 4.0 YPC and gained maybe 120 yards total--good but not blowout good.     As I told my sons, we didn't play well enough to win, but the final score was galling.  Pats are 3-1 over Colts in playoffs, with the home team winning each time. Let's see how the 4-4 road team does in Denver next week.

11 months, 1 week ago on AFC Divisional Round Recap: Patriots 43, Colts 22

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@MarcusDugan @matt_has @hankster Message, schmessage. It's surely a wasted opportunity. Always hated that from the Manning Colts, especially when our opponents, in that situation, would take advantage of D weakness and succeed with 30 seconds left about 1/4 of the time. But when you kneel on the ball, you succeed 0% of the time.

11 months, 1 week ago on AFC Divisional Round Recap: Patriots 43, Colts 22

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@mdunn919 @NateDunlevy  Rogers and a double move might = DPI or D holding. I think his first target was a long DPI this year. A defender has to be concerned bout this big fast guy blasting by him, or juking him regardless of his rout refinement. Safer to grab than to risk him catching a timing pass.  Now... will it be called? Odds are against it. Good article on DPI playoff penalties, and the Seahawks today in the Wall Street Journal.

11 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Patriots

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@Nate Dunlevy @hankster 30's?  Eh maybe, but it came out my sr year of college, when I had lots of time to watch god movies. And I hit 50 next year. It's timeless and ageless. And the book is even better, but not much.

11 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Patriots

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Nice work, Nate. I couldn't agree more... except for the score.  I think you are about 10 pts light on each side.    Let's just put down our weapons and and kill each other like civilized men.

11 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Patriots

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The Pats' injury report is always BS, but if there's ANY credibility there, we're looking alright. If we can score 45 on a better D, despite 4 turnovers, I think we can score 30-35 against NE with one or fewer TO. Can we hold them to less?  Yes.  Colts, 35-33.

11 months, 1 week ago on Hitchhiker's Guide to Colts at Patriots, AFC Divisional Round

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Greg, this was beautiful, but too big to comment on in one post. Part The First:  Regarding "taking way Hilton and going to Fleener" keep in mind that the Pats IRed their best ILB run defender, but still have decent ILB pass defenders. The underneath pas game is still a challenge, unless we flood the crossing routes, short outs, etc and scatter those guys, or hit Brown a LOT out of the backfield. Or just run if they have 6 in the box. Brown has 5.3 YPC and their run D is awful. Even better, it keeps the ball out of Tommy's hands. I could see a run-heavy battle for 2-3 quarters. (Pep an Pagano finally vindicated!)      If Hilton and Rogers both go deep on opposite sides of the field (A) Luck s choices, (B) one should not be doubled, (C) if both get safety help, the underneath lanes should be open for passes AND runs.  BB is way smarter than I am, but I think they are vulnerable.       Last game we had 29% of our hole season turnovers in ONE game; roughly 5 games worth. Yeowch!  Not likely to happen again.       Last year, Pats had two pick-sixes and a PR TD, plus two TDs to Gronk--not likely to repeat those 35 pts. Plus 24 of Brady's 35 attempts went to guys who are not on the field Saturday night.

11 months, 1 week ago on Hitchhiker's Guide to Colts at Patriots, AFC Divisional Round

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I knew Belichick was impressive, but if he already trademarked The Maiming Plan, then he's really outdone himself.

11 months, 1 week ago on Hitchhiker's Guide to Colts at Patriots, AFC Divisional Round

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Watch that GIFF above-Mathis could have had the sack earlier, but he ran alongside Smith's left side 3-4 strides so he could get closer and attack the arm on the right side.  Any fast defender could have gotten that sack once he was past the second blocker, but Mathis knew what was needed--not just a sack, but a FF.  THAT's veteran savvy and adding value.        Nice piece, Kyle. I agree that Watt (like Manning) could win it (MVP) every year, but when he has a down statistical year and someone else has a big one, the other guy gets the hardware, In this case, Mathis. 

11 months, 1 week ago on Why I Voted Robert Mathis for DPOY

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@Lou Pin I think Luck referred to it as his patented strip or something like that, yeah.  It must have been agony to watch for KC fans because I was pretty clear what was going to happen for a couple seconds. I was yelling in my house "he's gonna get a strip, watch this..." and sure enough.  I don't have the free time to dig into all of Brady's 40 sacks (who were his opponents, who were his receivers, early/late season, win/loss) but I suspect 98 and co will have their chances and if they succeed, good things will happen. Plus we'll get to see Brady sitting on the frozen turf screaming at the refs like a kid who just lost his lunch money and wants to kick somebody. That's always good theater.

11 months, 2 weeks ago on Good News Tuesday Infographic: Colts Stun Chiefs with Historic Comeback

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@Bobman1 Oh, and great stats on TY! I had no idea. Sure, the NFL has changed in the last 15 years or so, thanks in part to Manning (pre-Manning,.no QB had more than 3 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons--Manning has like a dozen, or something like that. Brees has hit 5,000 4 out of the last 6 years! Matt Stafford, of all guys.... oh, never mind), but those other guys (except Wayne) were generally the go-to guy with not much help. TY has done all this with Wayne producing well for 1.5 of those first two years. Much higher production than I realized. And hewasn't even the true 2 for most of that time (Avery, DHB)

11 months, 2 weeks ago on Good News Tuesday Infographic: Colts Stun Chiefs with Historic Comeback

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A fun read, Lou, but you left out Mathis's strip sack?  That was huge  Man, I hope you don't run into him in a dark alley some day, while you're carrying a football, and wearing another team's jersey, and by dark alley I mean football field... oh never mind.

11 months, 2 weeks ago on Good News Tuesday Infographic: Colts Stun Chiefs with Historic Comeback

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@MarcusDugan  Shouldn't they have added DB help instead? Now with 6 WRs on the squad, where the hell will we fit all the FBs Pep wants to run his offense?  Hmmm, maybe they've seen the light. Let's see... Pats IR Spikes, Colts IR two defenders and add two WRs... does that nudge the "over" line any higher? To, like, 100? Have the Pats contacted Marvin Harrison or Craphonso Thorpe?  Oh wait, they already have Collie, whether he knows it or not.

11 months, 2 weeks ago on Indianapolis Shuffles the Roster, Signs WR Deion Branch

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