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Thanks, Kyle. I now have a little more comfort, paying old guys, with this level of detail.  Front-loading them for cap reasons makes sense with the class of 2012 needing to be extended/re-signed in a year or two.

1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2015-archives/the-true-value-of-the-colts-free-agent-contracts.html

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Damn!  Andre and I had golfing plans for next February.... (Actually, I was planning on stalking him at his club and he was going to beat me about the face and head with a 5-iron)  So really, this is probably better all the way around, now that he'll be playing deep into the playoffs for the first time.

2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2015-archives/the-colts-and-andre-johnson-make-it-official.html

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Argh! Redding is gone for sure?  I thought it was between retirement or a return to Indy for him.  WTF would he want to go to AZ for?  I love him.

On to Langford--I know nothing about him but don't see his 2014 as a negative necessarily--they were fortunate enough to draft the DROY who replaced him after four games.  No shame in that.  In light of his work in 2012 and 2013, he should represent an upgrade, so long as he is comfortable in the 3-4 alignment. Plus he's younger than 30!  Yay! For a while there, I worried that Grigs was only signing guys older than he was.

2 weeks, 1 day ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2015-archives/colts-sign-dt-kendall-langford.html

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It looks like a reliable 2 year rental of a reliable, seasoned, productive vet. Not a big receiver, but good in pass pro. Maybe a little expensive, but the production (and trickle down effects on others) could well justify that. Here's what I am looking for:


Gore 240 carries x 4.2 YPC = 1,008 yds

Bradshaw 100 x 4.2 YPC = 420 yds

Boom       100 x 4.2 YPC = 420 yds  or 1,848 combined on the ground


G  20 rec x 10 YPR = 200 yds

Br  40 rec x 8 YPR = 320 yds

Bo 40 rec x  8 YPR = 320 yds or 840 combined yds through the air or 2,688 combined yards from scrimmage from the RB spot


I think we can all live happily with that, especially considering the positive effect it will have on protecting Luck and keeping defenses honest. I'd love to get Luck's attempts below about 560 (35 per game rather that last year's 38.5)

2 weeks, 1 day ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2015-archives/ladies-and-gentlemen-your-newest-colt-frank-gore.html

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What about Gore? To me that came out of left field a bit. He's old, but if we get 1.5 good seasons out of him, 1,000 yards and 4.0 YPC in 2015, plus a 3rd round RB to play with Boom/Ballard and add another combined 800 yards, I think we'd be pretty happy. I hope he's a good value if we do sign him (duh). Pretty optimistic for Gore.  Then again, I also felt pretty good about the Richardson trade and gave him the benefit of the doubt for most of his first season before becoming sane.  Now I have a welcome mat in front of my house named Trent so I can wipe my muddy shoes on him every day.

2 weeks, 2 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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Ranking them by 6-year totals, we are worst, but then again, NE is 3rd worst. In between is a generally successful Giants team.  Beyond that are the usually lousy Car and Cle followed by GB.  So the unhealthiest teams over the past six years include 5 of the last 9 SB winners and teams that have been in conf championships probably 20 times in the past ten years.  That's not so bad.

At the top of the list in terms of fewest AGL over six years, you have a mixed bag--Bal. Min, Ten, NYJ, Den.  Some consistently successful teams, some the opposite. Losing guys is frustrating, but that's why coaches make the big bucks--they create a system, a plan, contingencies, (and then deflate balls, just in case) to drag those injured teams to the postseason where anything can happen.

2 weeks, 3 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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Well, I used to blame it on Torine, Polian, Dungy, philosophy, etc., but clearly I should have kept my tinfoil hat--there is an alien conspiracy afoot, surely.

One thing I find most amusing above is the Colts' "healthiest" year--2011, when the lost Manning and had their worst record since the early 90s. It's not always quantity, but quality in terms of whom you lose.  Sadly, we're losing a little of each. Or should I say a lot of each?

Even if we were perfectly healthy EXCEPT for Manning in 2011 (a freakish 16 AGL surpassed only twice in the past five years), that 2011 team would not have won more than 4 games.  That's what happens when you lose the GOAT QB. 

2 weeks, 3 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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Somebody's been doing his homework... but I think we'll need to see how veteran cuts and FA signings pan out over the next couple weeks. Adding Suh or Murray (neither of which I am advocating!) would surely change this otherwise plausible scenario.

In combine interviews, if any player said something Manningesqe like "If you draft me, I will throw a cream pie in Trent Richardson's face every day for a month" something like that's gotta be worth a 3rd round pick, right?

3 weeks, 1 day ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/guest-post-mycoltsaccount-mock-draft-9th-edition.html

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Kyle, you heartless/rational, soulless/level-headed, monstrous/reasonable, evil/sage monster, you....  Hey, wait, where was I going with this? In two directions, apparently. 

I had always hoped Ballard would return and be a good cog, but I hadn't really weighed the effects of the injuries.  He had a nice rookie season and was certainly a good value coming in at the cost of a 5th rounder.  He has low mileage, but low mileage on a car that was totaled twice might work out the same as high mileage on a Mercedes in decent condition.

3 weeks, 6 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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Nice highlight reel--shows he can make those contested catches and has the speed to pull away, also has good goal line awareness with the ball reach-outs.  Appears to look for the ball too early (which can be corrected), and I didn't realize CFL had a one-foot-in rule like college. That will surely need to be fixed.  We didn't see his drops, of course, but it's promising. He did more on his clip reel than Jerry Hughes ever did on his (where he had no moves but was faster than everybody else--not hard to sack QBs when you go unblocked a few times).

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/the-colts-officially-reach-a-deal-with-duron-carter.html

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Basically, he's probably an additional 2nd round pick for 2015 in terms of talent/skill.  That's pretty good.  He's a 1 year vet in terms of seasoning (2 seasons in CFL). Maturity/off-field, maybe a rookie as well, but according to one story I read (lived on his own in Montreal on $50k/year with no car and no parental financial support, took subway to work), I could bump that maturity/professionalism level up to a 2-year vet.  No idea what he's being paid, but it looks like a pretty good signing. Might even make up for (in some small way, after a few years) losing a first rounder last year. If Reggie stays or becomes an assistant WR coach, I'm even more optimistic.

As others have said, now let's get on to the RB/OL matrix... and the DL/LB/S layer cake. 

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/the-colts-officially-reach-a-deal-with-duron-carter.html

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Marcus, nice article, as usual.

1) Good article on Carters pere and fils by Dan Pompeii today (I forget where... USAtoday.com?  Sounds like Duron matured a LOT in the past few years.  BTW, it's Cris with no "h." And Pompeii also lists him at 6-5. Man, everybody has a different height--it's not like he's Doug Flutie who was listed as tall as 5-10 in some places but my 5-6 brother who went to BC the same years swears he's the same height or shorter. Same for Russ Wilson, listed over 5-10 but an old friend who met him says it's closer to my 5-7. Though same friend noted his hands are as big as dinner plates. But with a WR who is tall at any of those listed heights and has no real need to fudge, you'd think there'd be some consensus.

2) TR suspension looks a bit fishy to me as well--a ploy to save $3M (AKA good business; I try to save $3M whenever and wherever I can.) If the appeal wins, I say he's still cut and they consider the $3M a goodbye gift; both sides will still consider that win-win, though saving $3M is a bigger win for Indy and a loss for TR of course. He seemed like a decent guy and teammate, but production just dragged down what I THINK could have been an elite O.

3) When I first heard Walker was axed I said, "probably a good thing," but your stats with other backs, his #34 albatross around his neck, and the Ryan Leaf comment make me wonder if he's just a convenient scapegoat.  Hopefully he lands on his feet and sees success elsewhere--he had a big rock to push uphill at 3.3 yards per push. What's Gene Huey up to these days?

4) Chud; I know nothing about what he brought to the table, but clearly they like him so it must be good. Then again, didn't Jim Tressel have that title a few years ago? Not sure where he ended up.

1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/a-deeper-look-at-this-weeks-colts-news-duron-carter-rob-chudzinski-david-walker-trent-richardson.html

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All I can do is draw a parallel to the Saints bounty punishment. They had less evidence (11 out of 12 balls underinflated by about 15%? All exactly the same?  That's no coincidence, folks.) for the Saints (nothing measureable, just a lot of innuendo and player comments, some recanted testimony IIRC) and yet suspended Payton and Williams for a season (without pay?) and fined the team a big sum.  Nobody could possibly be injured by an uninflated ball but it "tarnishes the integrity of the shield" or whatever just as much because it could affect competitive balance. (in a game, facepalm, where they certainly did not need to do it.... they whupped us fair and square).  So the League will have some soul-searching to do. If it was a one point game, I think they come down on the Pats pretty hard.  A five-TD margin and they might be tempted to rationalize that it didn't affect the game in question.  Ah, but what about all the other games they might have done it?  What about repeat-offender status?  The league will have to do SOMETHING.


Penalty... the NFL will take care of that and it could range anywhere from the minimum $25k fine, to $1M and lost draft picks and nothing in between would surprise me.  Anything more might.  Suspending BB for 8 games? A whole season like Sean Payton?  That would be interesting, but seems excessive. Again, would not surprise me.  Now making the Pats forfeit their next game vs the Colts WOULD surprise me but would make some sense as it also go toward both punishing the perps and recompensing the victims.  And might tip HFA Indy's way as a tie-breaker in 2015; or might be meaningless in the greater scheme of things (i.e Colts go 10-6 and Pats go 14-2).  Maybe Pats forfeit the right to host any playoff games?  Again, if they enter the playoffs as a wildcard or even miss them, it's a non-issue...


However, since the revenues--both TV and gate--would be zero for that missing game, the NFL would NEVER go for that! A pay-per-view public execution of the ball boys?  Yes, the NFL could abide that.  But missing out on revenues because a came was cancelled and forfeited... no way.


Fun to speculate. 

2 months ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/ball-gate-patriots-under-investigation-for-cheating-again.html

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@dmstorm22 @Nate Dunlevy @Platinum   Hey, what ever happened to Adailus Thomas?  He was, like, the next big thing... and then like Keyser Soze, poof, he was gone.

2 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-24-broncos-13.html

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@dmstorm22 That fits my fading memory--that he won with brains and patience, no so much his arm. True chess match.

2 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-24-broncos-13.html

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@Zachasaurus_Rex To quote the Godfather Part II:  Tom, you know you surprise me. If anything in this life is certain - if history has taught us anything - it's that you can kill *anybody*.


Al Pacino had a monstrous neck beard in that one, right?  Maybe not.  But still....

2 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-24-broncos-13.html

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@vishal_07  I could never imagine an Indy crowd booing 18.  They did yesterday, no? (At least it sounded like it. Maybe they were booing the play selection. Or Mr. Burns?)

2 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-24-broncos-13.html

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Good Lord, Nate, the Ugg-wraith?  That might be the best thing you've ever come up with, and that's saying something.  Can't find a nit to pick above, except maybe the prediction (see, I'm a fan, not a journo). I agree we have as much chance of winning next week as last.


From a distance the team really looks like 2006, with the D playing very solidly with no solid, rational explanation (if you recall, despite the great narrative, the team wasn't appreciably better with Sanders in versus Sanders out). Less of a run game this time around, but Luck's out-producing 2006 Manning so far IIRC.  Like the Ravens two years ago, they just seem to have turned their dial to 11 when it wavered from 4 to 9.5 all season. Nigel Tufnel would be proud.  If they can keep it at 11, it's a coin toss.


Seeing all the DPI/D-holding penalties the past couple weeks has been reassuring, even though they missed at least four more on Talib (one on Allen's TD where he wore Talib like a cape, one about four feet from a ref who was probably watching the ball....). Marcus Pollard won't be mugged next week, pretty sure. Eric Allen on ESPN really likes TY's quickness off the line and thinks he'll be able to get his release more often than one would expect vs Revis.  Sweet.


Finally, nearly EVERY write-up of the whole weekend spent 95% of their ink/pixels on the other seven teams. Our game was all about Manning's end, and nobody in the media is giving the Colts a second thought.  Fine by me.


Man, am I excited about this. I don't expect a win, but it wouldn't shock me.

2 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-24-broncos-13.html

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Aaah, torn quad or 18.  That might explain a few things. Doesn't explain why Luck was not touched by the AFC 's leading D, but I fee less crappy about Manning at least.

2 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/15960.html

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@buymymonkey   Oh yeah.  I was so psyched for those damn Ravens (and I don't say that lightly, mainly because their Colt-hating and Irsay-hating fans are such hypocritical a-holes). I am one of the few who doesn't think of Brady as an all-time great, but Saturday he was good.  Bastid.....


Let the F-bombs fly, baby.  Better during a football game than during church, or work, or in court or the operating room.

2 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/15960.html

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Bittersweet--good word for it, though more sweet than bitter. I am actually surprised I didn't enjoy the win more, probably because Manning looked so ordinary.  But I am happy, make no mistake. If it was a 42-35 win and each QB had a 120 rating and 4 TDs, maybe I'd be happier.  But how about our D!?!?  Like 2006, I tell ya.


Or maybe the sheer genius of benching Richardson lifted every other aspect of the team, OL, DL, RBs, DBs, training staff, janitors... you name it!  Thanks, Trent!

2 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/15960.html

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@ngenovese22 I can't agree enough. I was going to say the same brief, impressed thing, but you beat me to it.  It was a really great piece of writing.


A really nice essay that (bear with me, I have three kids in school) serves as a great model for this type of thing, taking the reader through the personal history and winding up at the present. When my kids have to write a personal essay, or something similar for college applications in a couple years, I may just print this out and say "see how he did it?"


Lit-geek stuff aside, the football fan side of it was great as well--I'd say almost universal, but I know there are narrow-minded, vengeful knuckle-draggers out there who cannot relate to a fandom duality.  The guy has to really mean something to you as a human being, not just a jersey number.  I suspect a lot of Pats fans felt this way about Vinatieri, but after nearly a decade, maybe not much anymore.  Did we ever play Edge and the Cardinals?  Similar thing for me.  Jerry Hughes and the Bills?  Phil Wheeler and the Raiders/Fins?   Nuh-uh.

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/guest-post-wearing-the-dusty-jersey.html

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@Nate Dunlevy @Bobman1 I'm not trying to deny the stats, traditional or advanced. So how the heck did we make a game of it four months ago? Especially after starting down 24-0?


In a one-score game, where the losing team started down 24-0, Manning had a very efficient game while Luck's was ordinary.  Den DOUBLED our 54 yards on the ground, and Julius Thomas was 7/8/104/3 (like Antonio Gates when Brackett missed the playoff game).  JT is hobbled right now and I expect him to play, but at a lower level.  The QB performances could easily flip.  We should get 80+ yards rushing, but Den could still double that.  Also, Reggie almost had 100 yards, which won't happen this week. But TY had just 40 yards, so that should flip.

Den won the sack battle 3-1 which I'd expect and the turnover battle 2-0, which could go either way. (They fumbled twice and recovered both. Allen fumbled for us and we recovered.  If all three fumbles are lost, then the advantage goes to Indy.


This is a work of science fiction, but my point is that we could have been blown out, or won narrowly in Week 1, and the same holds for me this week. On paper, Den is way better. On the field in Week 1 they had a lot going for them and only won by one score... If nothing else, with #34 riding the pine, we should improve on O.


Not expecting a win, but pretty hopeful.

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-26-bengals-10.html

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Nate, one item you sort of missed was the competent Colts OL.  Luck had all day to throw most of the time--very Brady-like.  Yes, the Cinn pass rush is modest at best, but when has that ever stopped our OL from letting 12 get hammered left and right? I was stunned and thrilled to see him with all that time. If that happens next week, I'll be even more stunned and thrilled, and we'd have a solid chance.


It may seem odd, or disrespectful, or... ungrateful or something, but I have no qualms about rooting for a full-on Colts devastation of Denver.  And yes, that includes Manning.  Will it happen?  No. But I found myself thinking this past week, "I hope Manning's gas tank is as empty as many idiots are saying" based on the past few weeks of run-heavy O-scheme.  I suspect he's more or less fine, but have found myself hoping very much otherwise.  He's had his time and I love him to death, but I am a Colts fan, not a Broncos fan, so I have no qualms about hoping for a playoff loss for Denver. That USUALLY will require Manning to have a bad game. If so, then so be it. If he has a good game, our chances diminish significantly.


Wouldn't a defensive contest be interesting? Indy cannot play the run next week like they did yesterday, but shutting down the Den run game and daring Manning to beat them might just be the defensive key (if he has indeed reached the end of the line). Blasphemous to say, and insane to implement that D strategy.  But... so crazy it just might work. Maybe Grigson can sign Willie McGinnest to come in and fake an injury at a key time. (ew. I feel dirty just typing that. must go shower)


Denver IS the best match-up for us, but still horrible with the Den pass rush, running game, and QB & TE competence.  Still, I think Den winning a bit closer, say 28-24 or 34-28, is more likely. And if it's a one-score game, then you can never count the Indianapolis Lucks out. 

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-26-bengals-10.html

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Well, that was a nice win.  I was a little disturbed at the play call distribution early on and said to my son, "That's, like, seven passes in a row." (Let's not even get to the biblical plague of dropped passes)


But what the hell do I know?


I really liked how they were able to close out the win--T-Rich would have given the Bengals a few more possessions (or, as the D might say, a few more three-and-out opportunities).


Finally, I will really miss Cory Redding when his time comes to hang them up. He's been a joy to watch the past couple years and, as I understand it, a true leader/elder statesman in the locker room.


Finally part 2: Is Freeman in a contract year? He was playing like a man trying to earn a few million right away. Kicking ass.


The Broncos are a terrible match up for us (effective RB, great pass rush, great TE, great QB) but Colts still have a better chance there than in Foxboro. And we DO have a decent chance of pulling an upset; after all, Cincy body-slammed the Broncos just two weeks ago.

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/colts-get-the-wild-card-win-26-10-over-cincinnati.html

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Jeez Nick, that was some nice work. Let's hope this postseason provides you with LOTS more material to add....

2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/prepare-for-the-playoffs.html

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@Macko  Macko, I want that scenario so much, and if it happens, I'd tell anyone within earshot that the Colts only won it all because of a lot of luck (small L, though Big-L will have to contribute as well).  The longest shot in that AFC scenario is Indy beating Den in Den.  Ravens very up and down, so if we beat Den, then yeah, I could see it. Carolina is pretty hot right now, so who knows?


Once we lost to Pitt after the 2005 season I lost all interest in the "team of destiny" narrative and subscribed more to the "hot team, lucky breaks, right timing" theory.  It's "any given Sunday" all over again in the playoffs.  Witness Ravens two years ago--sure, they rightfully beat the Colts, but taking Den to OT and then beating them was incredibly flukey, and the SB could have gone either way easily.

2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-titans-10.html

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@DougEngland  I think you mean (and this goes back to an Indy DB in the mid-90s, maybe Nesby Glascow?) ... a Heckell and Jeckell team.


One of our DBs described the team thusly in an interview (meaning, I assume, Jeckyll and Hyde but channeling cartoons from his youth instead) and Tom Jackson repeated it at least once a week on SportsCenter.

2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-titans-10.html

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@Nate Dunlevy @ECB  Yeah, Jeez, I hadn't really thought about the relative states of QBing from decade to decade--I'd normally think of 95-2000 as pretty stellar but the luminaries were really on their last legs except for Favre. Aikman and Young both felled by concussions, IIRC.


Also, Ben's going in, no doubt about it, unless his extracurriculars cause voters to shy away, but I doubt that.  The guy is amazing and has stats, wins, and rings to back it up.  Eli has rings only, really. Of course, when they were TV the other night my wife asked "who is that fat slob?" and I told her.  "Isn't he, like, their third stringer at this point?" "No, he's still starting and playing at a high level, in fact."  Must be his jowls. 

2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-titans-10.html

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Nate, on the 18 vs 12 comparison, I think run game support is worth considering.  Manning had Faulk racking up about 2,000 total yards in year 1, then Edge winning the rushing title in both years 2 and 3, and receiving for another 500 yards or so annually.  There's some cause and effect overlap there, but Faulk's and Edge's contributions to Manning's success cannot be overlooked when you look at what kind of backfield production Luck has had to deal with.

I'm much more concerned about the Ravens than the Colts.... probably putting the cart before the horse with that one, since we'd still have Denver to face.


2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-titans-10.html

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@buymymonkey  Pretty sure that was after the 2005 season and Nick Harper, running on a leg that was stabbed the previous night by his wife, ran the Bus's fumble back about 55 yards before a backpedaling Ben managed to trip him up. There were so many mind-boggling unlikely events in that game, but if we had won, and gone on to win the SB, I'd feel perpetually tainted by the refs missing the call on the Polamalu INT. That was a good pick.

2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-titans-10.html

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@smonroe  I'd much rather face Winston (with his potential off-field troubles/distractions) twice a year than Mariota. He is a magician and was D-1 ready as a freshman. He kept losing playmakers to the draft yet kept producing. If either flames out for not-strictly-football-reasons, I think it's Winston.

2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/colts-go-to-the-bench-but-win-anyway-27-10-over-tennessee.html

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This was awesome:  "He’s like Brett Favre, except his cellphone can’t take pictures."


Our injuries are a major problem--Gosder and TY for starters.  If not for that, I'd be pretty optimistic.  After all, it IS December. bwa-ha-ha-ha.

3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/i-believe-that-we-will-win-colts-at-cowboys.html

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Lies, damn lies, and statistics!  Please don't mix-and match stats to make things seem impressive. To wit:  Russell Wilson has second fewest INTs among QBs who have taken at least half their team's snaps?  What kind of messed up logic is that? What if all their snaps are handoffs, then they'd have zero INTs.  Is "taking half your team's snaps" even a statistic? Look at TD ratio and INT ratio--which is automatically equalized across all passers because it's the number of TDs/INTs divided by the number of passes.  Andrew Luck's giant TD number is tempered by his massive number of attempts (though his rate is still well above Wilson's and his raw number of passing TDs is more than double!) .  Wilson threw just 44 in the last two games (thanks to a stellar run game) and he's good, so of course he has very few INTs in that time. 


Advanced metrics like DVOA put Wilson at just #22 among NFL QBs. With the average NFL QB throwing a pick about 2.5% of the time, Wilson's rate of 1.4% is very good.  But Rodgers with 1.0% is better, and Big Ben is also at 1.4% (but with 136 more attempts, he has just two more picks--basically Ben has thrown in his first 12 games more than Wilson will all year). By pass attempts, Wilson has been asked to bear a much smaller portion of the offense than other top QBs (his RB and D allow this to work--they're a great team). He's thrown 82% as much as Manning, 76% as much as Roethlisberger, 73% of Brees, 89% of Rodgers, 80% of Brady, and 72% of Luck.  At the current rate, Luck will finish the regular season with 200 more passes than Wilson, or the equivalent of 6.3 of WIlson's typical games more--a QB like these other guys is carrying much more weight than Wilson.


In terms of TD rates, those other QBs all range from 5.1% (Ben) to 7.2% (Rodgers) and average 6.1% with Wilson producing passing TDs at a clip of only 4.1%.  So they all throw more AND score at a higher rate, which, like compound interest, adds even more value.


Wilson's rushing/scrambling/play-extending contributions are enormous, but you do a disservice to the Seattle D and Lynch by declaring him the divisional MVP. The reason an awesome player like JJ Watt won't win the MVP is because even with all his contributions, he doesn't affect the game as much as a 600+ pass attempt QB with similar excellent stats, and neither does a QB who projects to throw fewer than 500 times. Wilson is playing very well indeed, but it's not at an MVP level because he does not produce enough.

3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://thesportsdaily.net/

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Regarding Dallas, I guess this will be our real playoff test. TY limping and Reggie fading?  uh-oh.  A team with a top TE vs our soft middle pass defense?  uh-oh.  My big hope is that broken-hand Demarco Murray plays and is (A) ineffective and (B) coughs it up.  I think Witten will go Gronk on us, but also think we'll be able to mostly contain their run game, and therefore maybe defuse their play-action passing.  Their vaunted OL is missing 1.5 starters, both on the right side!  If Davis contains Dez to some extent, and Witten is our main weakness on D... we should be able to hold them to 24 or 27.  Romo is also subject to horrible brain farts--we can hope.


The Offense needs to get on track and act as a unit for the playoffs and this is the time to work on it--road game against a decent team. I don't know where Dallas is vulnerable but we'd need at least 24 pts.  They've been ordinary at best at home this year...  I think a 28-27 Colts win is possible.

3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-17-texans-10.html

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A minor work of minimalist art.  I often think of my hens as egg-producing slaves but that's evened out by my "ownership" of two cats, for whom the humans are the slaves. "Feed me at 4 a.m., boy, or you'll be bleeding from places you didn't know you had.  And then clean up the puddle of urine I just left. Drat, is the sofa really that absorbent?  Sorry." And don't even start on my son's snake and fish. All I do is feed and clean, feed and clean.  I am enslaved by fish!  Man, am I pathetic.


The whole racist thing made my head explode.  My kids come home from school and everything is "racist." Not sure if they get it from the Internet or school itself.  "Dad, you told an Italian joke, that's so racist!"  "Mark, (A) how is it racist? and (B) I'm half Italian! Plus, (C), go to your room!"  "You're sending me to my room, that's racist."  Only a slight exaggeration.


I hate to compare the two teams, but the Bumblebees and Colts have some frustrating similarities in that it's hard to predict which team will show up, but both can win on off-day as well. We just do THAT better than they do. I still want sweet sweet revenge on them, but would be happy if they beat up the Pats first

3 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-15-2.html

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@Brad Cronin  Hey, hold on there... Tennessee spent multiple first round draft picks and big FA money on their OL and ... and...,um oh, never mind.


In other news, does Bob Sanders have a son who is old enough to play yet?


And finally, it was wistful fun watching Freeney punch around Brady last night. No sacks, but made him eat dirt a few times.

3 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-25-browns-24.html

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Man, did the Fins look horrible last week against the Jets. I be happy to play them! Balt sans Ngata would be fine. Pitt has multiple personality disorder, and at least one of them can be dangerous (though I till want sweet revenge).


I'm mainly thinking of rounds 2 and 3--2014 Colts can beat Den in Den, but I don't think NE in NE. Who out there can take care of the Pats for us? SD?  I'd like some revenge on them as well.


Sweet, An all-playoff-revenge post-season for Indy!  Pitt, then Den (no playoff revenge) hen SD at home in the AFCCG, then... New Orleans?  Maybe not.

3 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-14-2.html

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Since we're talking a lot about the line, (tackle and guard heavy discussions), I have to address the center position.  Is Jjonnatthonn getting any better? He started pretty horribly, inexplicably replacing Shipley two months ago.  (Okay, the one explanation I read was Pagano wanted to establish a long-term rapport with Luck... while snapping it over his head, getting him killed, and feeding JJ Watt?  Maybe losing games? Whatever. Way to develop rapport. What the hell did Shipley *really* do to Pagano? Run over his dog, is my bet.)  Anyway, how are we doing at C?


Finally, TY's back-shoulder sideline catch around the 5 yard line was insane as both a pass and catch. They kind of toss where you say "no way no way no way" on release because it's going out of bounds and behind the receiver, and then when it's caught you try to figure out how the hell they did that. Even in slo-mo it looks impossible. Luck said it in an interview: TY is great at not putting up his hands until the very last second (like both 88 and 87).

3 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-49-redskins-27.html

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Nate,

I think I am rooting for the Ravens to win AFCN with an<= record to Colts so we're #3 and they're #4 (Cincy's tie messes things up, as does the loss to Pitt). No faith in getting a bye.


Want to face Pitt in 1st round and reverse karma from 5 playoff losses and 2005 season in particular (reg season win/playoff loss vs Pitt). Also, screw you, Kordell Stewart! I think Indy can take Denver in Den more likely that Pats in NE. Maybe we get a replay of 2006 post-season. After all, last week I felt as if we gave up 400 yards rushing to the Jags all over again....

4 months ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-13-2.html

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Ben, a fine read as always. 


I'm hoping not, but is there any chance that Satele is like Spinal Tap's drummer? Or Snape applying for the DODA job?  (Glad to mix metaphors and references any time I can) There was plenty of talk a few years back (pre-TY Hilton) that all our third round picks were cursed.  Hoping this does not apply to C, too. On the plus side, the curses seem to end eventually....

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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Aside from that, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you like the play?


Ugh.  The only consolation I took away from 2010 was that the SB champ Packers were the only team more injured than we were. And now it turns out I was wrong on two counts--Cleveland was worse off, but the Packers slightly healthier.  Of course we nearly won it all in 2009 with the 2nd worst AGL.  Ironically, the season with our worst record was our "healthiest." Of course losing the GOAT QB should count quadruple in this measure....

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/injuries-anomalies-adjusted-games-lost-from-2009-2013.html

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@erhall01 I suspect every team has fans that feel the same way, and about 1/3 to 1/2 are justified.  A few years back (2010?) I thought the Colts were a SB team except for all the injuries. Turns out they were 2nd most injured that year... but the team that lost more starter games to injury was the Packers, who won it all. So I've stopped griping myself. This is terrible news and may affect not only this year, but future years if Luck is unable to continue developing along the proper trajectory. The interior OL was our thinnest unit, IMO, and is now thinner. That being said... next man up!

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/colts-place-donald-thomas-on-ir-for-2nd-straight-year-sign-udfa-eric-pike.html

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This garbage (ESPN's not Kyle's) is hardly worth commenting on, but here's where a huge fault lies.  #32 in "draft" must be based entirely on 2014.  Yet they are ranking for the next three years, so I guess the stellar A+ 2012 draft and mediocre 2013 draft never happened?  (And those players were all abducted by aliens and won't contribute in the next three years.)  And they apparently assume future drafts will all involve trading away a first rounder for a dubious starter?  That's idiotic. Do they really believe the team is 12 slots worse in 2014 than 2013?


I am a financial analyst and one of the very first things an old boss told me when valuing an asset was NEVER tell a client "well, that's what the numbers say." These guys are inputting semi-valid opinions of independent variables and without assessing the logic of the whole, it's spitting out garbage.

8 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/colts-ranked-21st-in-espns-futures-power-rankings.html

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"Nevertheless, he tested positive for a PED, and the league may not ...."  Technically, he tested positive for a masking agent. Big difference that a lot of media yahoos may ignore.  I suspect he has a mountain of evidence to support his case, were this an actual courtroom event.  But the NFL is not. 


Just a huge, stupid mistake by him. Jeez, these guys know they cannot ingest anything out of the ordinary without checking--with the proper authorities-first.  (I once had an MD prescribe what he said were antibiotics for an ear infection. Thy did not work.  Some time later, my bro-in-law, also an MD, said, "No, that is a decongestant.") Robert, Robert Robert, I hate that this will be lumped in with the Whizzinator and Richard Sherman's Adderal use (h got off on a technicality, not on proven innocence)


On the flip side, congrats on the rowing family. Catch up on your sleep now, my friend.

10 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/robert-mathis-faces-4-game-p-e-d-suspension-possibly-over-fertility-treatments.html

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Wow, the top clip shows his QB short-arming like 80% of the throws. Not bad, but most are back-hip throws for a guy who is running, not pivoting (i.e. leading him might have given him some YAC).  One thing I did NOT like, but that is correctable, is he looks for the ball WAY too early. 87 will fix that. All in all, pretty good looking.

10 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/uncategorized/colts-snag-wr-donte-moncrief-with-the-90th-overall-pick.html

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This looks like a fine pic. I viewed WR as a bit of a luxury or second-tier need. Yes we'll need one next year, but there are guys we need more this year. Unless Delano Howell has recently stated breaking granite slabs with the power of his mind and shooting pigeons out of the sky with his laser vision.  Then I guess we're cool at safety. And if an "X-Men: Indianapolis" movie is in the works, we're pretty much set there as well.

10 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/uncategorized/colts-snag-wr-donte-moncrief-with-the-90th-overall-pick.html

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Aaaaaand... the head-scratching commences. Probably not a bad pick (damned by faint praise) but not at all hat anybody was thinking. The only thing stranger would have been QB. Hey, if a QB was BPA would they have taken him?

10 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/uncategorized/14126.html

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@ECB I'm not sure Brown's production from his first four seasons was the reason he was not resigned.  Last year's production and his refusal to give up when things looked grim more than merited signing, him; problem was, he was one of he top FA RBs and got a market deal at $3.0-$3.5M per year. Our entire current backfield (Ballard, Bradshaw, TRich) costs a hair more than that, and if healthy, the team feels they can all produce a well as Brown for less. His nagging injury history prior to 2013 may have factored in.

If there were 5 clearly superior RB FAs on the market and Brown looked like a $2.0M player given that market, I think they might have resigned him.

11 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/uncategorized/colts-go-back-to-work-four-things-to-keep-an-eye-on-in-2014.html

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Wasn't it Josh Gordy who officially put the KC playoff game away by batting away Smith's final pass (or maybe it was just body positioning to force the WR out of bounds). Regardless, it was a good defensive play (on a marginal pass) when we needed it. I'd hate for Sergio Brown to leave special teams (small of me, I know).

11 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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