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@whygavs The point is, that as a credential media member you can't print stuff that is absolutely wrong and claim it's correct with the disclaimer that "It's a little more complicated than this..."
Mathematical statistics (not statistics like RBI's, etc) are difficult for a lot of people and if you're not good at them you need someone to check your work before you publish.
Dejan is an idiot, you're not.
1 year, 2 months ago on The Pirates don't care about throwing out base stealers. Should they? | August 2012
Your analysis is flawed in that you're comparing apples and oranges.
Comparing runners on and bases empty tells you nothing.
What you need to do is compare A) how the Pirates pitchers have pitched this year with runners on... with B) how the Pirates pitchers WOULD HAVE pitched by paying more attention to the runners (more fastballs, looks to first, pitchouts, etc.) This would give you strikes/outs/runs/wins saved by ignoring the runners. Compare that to the outs/runs/wins lost by ignoring the baserunners and you'd have your answer.
Obviously this is impossible. But I'm guessing Dan Fox has done some regressions and has proved that paying attention to the runners isn't that important.