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@The McAdams Bros @dollarbillrussell @Turf is always Greener

Try reading this...  http://82games.com/barzilai1.htm


Its a bit old, but the only guys to really break the trend since it was published are Marc Gasol, Chandler Parsons, Lance Stephenson, and Isaiah Thomas.  The rest of the late first and 2nd round picks have at best turned into quality starters.  There are guys like Ibaka, Asik, etc. that have exceeded the trend but they are countered by lots of guys who have never made it which is why the trend is in the middle.  The four guys I mentioned are the only guys since 2007 to completely blow away their draft slot projection. 

2 days, 6 hours ago on Monday Bolts – 7.28.14

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@James Haren @senseandsenescence That's because its not a question.  It is an obvious statement disguised as a question where the statement relies on a delusion to have any semblance of fact.

2 days, 9 hours ago on Monday Bolts – 7.28.14

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@James Haren Do you think James would have made the ASG if it weren't for all of his free throws?

2 days, 9 hours ago on Monday Bolts – 7.28.14

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@JordanEraJazz You forgot Bonner, Lewis, Turkoglu, McRoberts, Bargnani, Gallinari.  All were active as of last season and have at least 3 seasons meeting your criteria.  Bargs probably can't do it still and Turkoglu or Lewis could be done too, but there are probably 15 guys in the league that can do that.  Serge met the criteria last year and was close the year before.  Bosh has done it on very low volume multiple years and I could imagine him doing it again on lower volume than last year.  It's not exactly a rare skillset anymore.  Even Perry pulled it off last year on low volume.

2 days, 9 hours ago on Monday Bolts – 7.28.14

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@epicurean yes we'll be over the cap.  sham has us at 92 million in salary and cap holds for next summer.  About 23 million is cap holds for Perk, Collison, Thabeet, Telfair and Fisher that can be renounced or reduced if they re-sign (or eliminated by cutting during this season), but depending on the new cap number currently projected as 66.5 mil, the most we could clear out would be 3-4 mil and that is with renouncing Reggie's Bird and restricted rights, Heustis, next year's pick(s), and pretty much everything else not on a guaranteed contract.  So we'll be staying over the cap and using the MLE or more likely the TPMLE instead.

2 days, 10 hours ago on Monday Bolts – 7.28.14

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@Perk has a lot of value @BangBangThunder It looks like if the player is not already under contract in another league at the time of the draft, you would still need to make the required tender and then likely extend another one when his contract in the other league expires, but it doesn't appear that you have to make a tender every year.  Only after the draft and when there are not other contracts and the player plans to play in the NBA the following season.

2 days, 11 hours ago on Monday Bolts – 7.28.14

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@Perk has a lot of value @BangBangThunder It is called a required tender.  I'm not aware of any other name for it, but it doesn't have to be minimum and in the case of first round picks is actually 80% of the rookie scale.  It also doesn't have to be made every year.  It only must be made once.  You can read the details in article X of the CBA 


http://www.scribd.com/doc/172760974/NBA-NBPA-CBA-2011


The most relevant sections are:


1) For players that do not sign other professional contracts:


"A Team that drafts a player shall, during the period from the date of such NBA Draft (hereinafter, the “Initial Draft”) to the date of the next Draft (hereinafter, the “Subsequent Draft”), be the only Team with which such player may negotiate or sign a Player Contract, provided that, on or before the July 15 immediately following the Initial Draft (for a First Round Pick), or in the two (2) weeks before the September 5 immediately following the Initial Draft (for a Second Round Pick), such Team has

made a Required Tender to such player. "


2) For players already under contract in another league or who sign such a contract covering at least part of the season following the draft:


" If, by July 1 of any year, the player notifies the Team that has drafted him that by September 1 of such year he will, immediately thereafter and for any future Season, be under no contractual or other legal impediment to sign and play with such Team, and provided that on such September 1 the player is in fact under no such contractual or other legal impediment, then, in order to retain the exclusive NBA rights to negotiate with and sign the player as provided in Section 5(a), such Team must make a Required Tender to the player by September 10 of such year.

2 days, 11 hours ago on Monday Bolts – 7.28.14

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@TempBoy Brandon @senseandsenescence @Lambaaaaaa @ThunderChick2010 I know.  My point was more that there has always been pulp which has been profitable and widespread.  The problem is past centuries' pulp didn't have the massive promotional benefits of modern internet media.  It also wasn't worth keeping around.  Pulp becomes dated like most pop culture and each generation finds its own.  The same themes in different clothes.  We tend to look down on all of it, so I doubt today's is any worse than the past's  The fact that women authors are the top in young adult pulp is probably equal parts luck and the increasing power of women in spending and in the workplace and education.  Which is interesting in its own way too.

5 days, 5 hours ago on Friday Bolts – 7.25.14

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@TempBoy Brandon @senseandsenescence @Lambaaaaaa @ThunderChick2010 It is much more difficult (and costly in unrealized earnings for pop writers) to create something than to understand it.  Having not read any of these I won't argue further.


Also I would add that your subtext is perhaps misguided, but not in the most obvious sense.

5 days, 6 hours ago on Friday Bolts – 7.25.14

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@Lambaaaaaa @ThunderChick2010 @TempBoy Brandon She's really asking about what he's not saying.

5 days, 6 hours ago on Friday Bolts – 7.25.14

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@okcjim Or maybe what you think is important to defense is only important in certain systems.  Likely one Minny doesn't use.  For example, Minnesota was best in the NBA in limiting opponent FTAs.  That is the bulk numbers and is not pace adjusted.  So they were best in the NBA at stopping the highest value shot in the game.  They also conceded relatively few 3 point attempts compared to the number of 2 point attempts they conceded.  This again is good while having the confounding factor (which you perhaps erroneously consider negative) of raising their opponent's FG% because 2 point shots go in more than 3 point shots. 

5 days, 6 hours ago on Friday Bolts – 7.25.14

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@okcjim You are better than that.  The business equivalent is...


I have a business that has expenses of 5 million and you have a business that has expenses of 2 million each year.  Which business is better?  Well you can't say because you don't know how much you are making.  


The same applies to giving up points.  It matters not how many you give up, but the net number you give up.  Just like profit (roughly net sales) is more important than expenses.  Its even better to evaluate as percentages, but that's beyond the point right now.


That's not to say Minny has a great defense, but if you want to use a stat at least use one that is useful for comparison's sake.  Volume matters when making comparisons.

5 days, 6 hours ago on Friday Bolts – 7.25.14

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@KC_Thunder Really the only issue with Perk is the money (and health).  I thought he was fine with a better offensive player at the two.  And money is only an issue if Presti wants another expensive player.  Not really the way Presti rolls.

2 weeks, 2 days ago on City Planning: The Thunder and their free agency flaws

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@Crow If he manages to pull together a champion out of OKC then I could see him as option 3 and eventually become a Phil Jackson type who floats around the league to new ownership groups.  However, while I was typing that I had a thought about the so called rise of "new, smart" GMs.  In some ways they are Randian in that they supposedly have these ideals and thus if they fail they may not be able to float from job to job like old basketball lifer types.  On the other hand the world is changing and sports management is closer to banking than coaching now.  In some ways the Fountainhead is about the suffering of the man before his time, the revolutionary, and in that sense Presti (who should have job security for the foreseeable, in sports terms, future) may not be the visionary of the day, but the man of the times.  Not the guy who builds the foundations, but the guy who builds the walls.

2 weeks, 2 days ago on City Planning: The Thunder and their free agency flaws

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@rednuht @Jooseppi I'm generally Presti-positive, but beyond the stockpiling of similar (on paper) players, there is a legitimate question of whether you are optimizing the limited resources of your 15 man roster and salary restrictions by spending so much on redundant pieces in an experience sense.  We have 2 inexperienced bigs, 3 inexperienced wings (and Perry however you want to count him), 4 players with veteran NBA experience in the big 3 + Morrow, maybe you throw Reggie into that mix.  Then you have 2 old bigs.  That's 13 roster locks and only 2 with double digit experience and 6 with no more than a season as a rotation player.  There is something to be said for development, but there is also something to be said for the diversity of varied experience and the consistency of guys who are making rosters year after year.

2 weeks, 2 days ago on City Planning: The Thunder and their free agency flaws

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@sammasaaron @senseandsenescence @Crow Didn't like what I thought she meant either.  It is an attractive idea, but just not realistic.  Many ideas are great until they are forced to face reality.  

2 weeks, 2 days ago on City Planning: The Thunder and their free agency flaws

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@sammasaaron @Crow I was interpreting his comments more through The Fountainhead, but that is mainly because I've never read Atlas Shrugged.

2 weeks, 2 days ago on City Planning: The Thunder and their free agency flaws

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@Crow I think Pop is way too pragmatic philosophically to get Rand's approval.  I think he doesn't have one unique view of basketball, but could be compared to a sculptor with several great works, each of which is great in its own way but with different lengths of construction and themes.


I think Presti's work to date shows more of the monomania with a certain ideal.  However, compromises are only found in the failures and to date Presti hasn't had any real failure.  Conference finals with a healthy core is not failure.  Would need real failure to truly test if he is idealistic or slightly complacent or just reasonably confident.

2 weeks, 2 days ago on City Planning: The Thunder and their free agency flaws

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@Crow Thanks. Wasn't sure what you meant by first time.  Interesting that all those teams were built around older stars than the ones that failed.  Hard to tell without much deeper analysis whether this is a fundamental flaw in young stars overachieving or limitations real or perceived that those stars create on transactions (or expectations on transactions that older stars have or have more power to force).

2 weeks, 2 days ago on City Planning: The Thunder and their free agency flaws

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@Crow Thanks for directing me back to that comment.  Just out of curiosity which were the 5 teams that made the average of 17 moves?

2 weeks, 2 days ago on City Planning: The Thunder and their free agency flaws

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@rednuht @Lost Ones +1  We should also hire lebron as a coach.

2 weeks, 2 days ago on City Planning: The Thunder and their free agency flaws

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@Lost Ones They will be worshiping the all powerful Darko.

2 weeks, 4 days ago on Thunder agree to deal with Anthony Morrow

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@OBoy (LaFamilia) @Lost Ones Don't think Lamb has been bad enough to be given up on yet.  Probably will never be more than average to above average, but has at least this season to prove one way or another.

2 weeks, 4 days ago on Thunder agree to deal with Anthony Morrow

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@Durienne Whenever it happens, I'll be in my garage.

1 month ago on Draft Recap: Thunder go big and then unknown, again

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@Crow @senseandsenescence @Julius F Wrek @[justin] I think it is a little of everything.  Rookies and young players in general aren't ready to bring the same level every night.  Sometimes it is matchups, sometimes fatigue, sometimes other factors.  Ultimately being able to develop consistent contribution is what keeps guys in the league.

1 month ago on Draft Recap: Thunder go big and then unknown, again

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@Julius F Wrek @[justin] Not sure which version Crow and justin are referencing, but you generally have to select a prior for rookies while vets you can use prior years.  This normally automatically downgrades rookies that perform, but even though Adams impressed it is important to remember that almost no one had any expectations for him.  Thus it is easy to think his play was better than it was because he exceeded expectations by so much.

1 month ago on Draft Recap: Thunder go big and then unknown, again

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Have to agree with Royce that filling the shooter need was not the way to go in the draft if you want him to be ready this year.  In the 3 point era (35 years) only 14 rookies have managed to play 41 games and match or better Lamb's career 3 point shooting (.350 and 5.9 attempts/36).  If you use the Lost Ones/Justin suggested filter of .370 and 4 attempts/36 you bump that up to 53 or roughly 2 a year.  Not great odds.  Much safer to sign a proven vet and hope Lamb continues to improve and maybe one of the bricklayers we have becomes more than a mason.




If you check for yourself on BBR I did filter out 25 and older rookies because I didn't find any that were drafted and played as a rookie for that team.

1 month ago on Draft Recap: Thunder go big and then unknown, again

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@CanadianThunderFan @King of Carrot Flowers the third We are exceptional in so many ways.  Especially how we measure things.  Don't tread.  Etc.

1 month ago on Draft Recap: Thunder go big and then unknown, again

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@Perk has a lot of value I see him more as a wall.  The kind that draws charges when you run into it.

1 month ago on Draft Recap: Thunder go big and then unknown, again

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@rednuht @senseandsenescence That's not really my point though.  A guy who shoots 33% is not a floor spacer. He's on the floor for other reasons.  We have guys who can defend.  We need guys who can shoot even if their defense is a bit questionable.

1 month ago on Friday Bolts – 6.27.14

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@Lost Ones @senseandsenescence I don't have time to read through all the comments any more.  Never really left, but will only comment from time to time.


I agree with your %, how about shots per game/ per 36 or per season?

1 month ago on Friday Bolts – 6.27.14

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@Julius F Wrek @senseandsenescence How many shots in a season or career?

1 month ago on Friday Bolts – 6.27.14

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@rednuht @senseandsenescence Not relevant to my question.  Assume he is at least a league average defender if it makes you feel better.

1 month ago on Friday Bolts – 6.27.14

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What percentage would you want a guy to shoot from 3 to consider him a reliable floor spacer?  How many shots would it take you to feel comfortable with that percentage?

1 month ago on Friday Bolts – 6.27.14

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@thunder doge There is a time for fish and a time for lamb.  I love fish, but I've tried lamb too and it is great...

1 month ago on Thunder select Mitch McGary with the 21st pick

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@OKC035 @[brooks' fault] It's even harder for fans to accept that there is variance in sports that is totally independent of team strategy, play calls, and player performance.  Even though I'm sure many fans are aware that this exists, most don't consider it when they are venting.

6 months ago on OKC finally beats Miami, 112-95

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@DanielLawler If we manage to win a championship Brooks automatically is a top 31 coach of all time according to the RINGZ theory of basketball.  

6 months ago on OKC finally beats Miami, 112-95

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@Mr. OBoy @senseandsenescence Didn't realize he was in the D league now.  I would have been more impressed if he did that in college.  It's not hard to be a d-league superstar for a night.

6 months ago on OKC finally beats Miami, 112-95

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@Mr. OBoy Isn't that the one who got suspended?

6 months ago on OKC finally beats Miami, 112-95

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@Durienne @treytech  My favorite is


Scott Brooks: "They didn't turn the ball over? **** better call timeout."

6 months ago on OKC finally beats Miami, 112-95

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@Jax Raging Bile Duct @senseandsenescence Fair enough.  I've been away for a while, but I can't disagree.  He's one of the most inconsistent guys we have, but he has the ability to be spectacular on any given night.  He's kind of like Fish's shooting, but you know Fish will only make the tough shots.  You never know with PJIII.

6 months ago on OKC finally beats Miami, 112-95

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@[brooks' fault] @El Prez He got in a snarl at LBJ too.  That has to count for something.  Scott Brooks is not nice.

6 months ago on OKC finally beats Miami, 112-95

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@Jax Raging Bile Duct That's true, but Lebron didn't really try to take him into the post much which is where he should have the advantage.  I'm impressed with PJIII's decisiveness offensively though.  Props to the kid, but I wouldn't expect similar the next time he's got Lebron.

6 months ago on OKC finally beats Miami, 112-95

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@Bry Bry @SeinfeldOKC That's just part of his game, like Westbrook blowing dunks on breakaways.  The game chose him after all.

6 months ago on OKC finally beats Miami, 112-95

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@OKC035 We tend to remember the extremes and Thabo and Harden just didn't have a chance.  I thought Westbrook did a solid job when he got switched on to him, but obviously that's not a sustainable long-term strategy.  Same way people always complain about how horrible the defense is on shooters when the team regularly posts one of the lowest eFG% conceded.

6 months ago on KD takes OKC to eight straight, 111-109 over the Hawks

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@Royce Young We got our narratives worked out.  Win = KD god.  Loss = Brooks sucks why is Perk playing so much.  Just insert an amusing word in the headline and no one will care.

6 months ago on KD takes OKC to eight straight, 111-109 over the Hawks

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@neo12 No need for a strategy.  Lebron has to stop KD.

6 months ago on KD takes OKC to eight straight, 111-109 over the Hawks

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@d21 @senseandsenescence @thunderny Well you don't really deserve that rep after 3 years. especially when signing lebron and bosh is what takes you from a decent playoff team to contender.

6 months, 4 weeks ago on Nets vs. Thunder: Pregame Primer

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@simonwayne Because Westbrook is actually the MVP and KD doesn't want to be distracted because he wants that 90%

6 months, 4 weeks ago on Nets vs. Thunder: Pregame Primer

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