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@Animals @Craig Ross The game plan against Fleury is "shoot the puck on net as many times as you can"hahaha
1 week ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/snapshot-emery-and-flyers-hold-off-penguins.html
O4rill? I thought Lehtonen was better than everyone thinks he is. Both he and Fleury have been in the NHL since 2003-04; but Lehtonen has him whipped at even strength save percentage (Career = Lehtonen .926%, Fleury .918%). What else matters? Lehtonen's career worst season is still better than Fleury's 6 most terrible seasons. For an example of what the difference is between .926% and .918%: If both goalies play 65 games this year, and both goalies face 30 shots against per game, Fleury will allow 159.9 goals against this season and Lehtonen 144.3 -- in other words, Lehtonen would allow 15.6 fewer goals this season than Fleury. Nevermind how consistent Lehtonen is, based on these numbers, compared with mr inconsistency over here.
A straight up swap between DAL and PIT involving these two players would be an enormous joke at Dallas' expense.
2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/three-things-to-watch-for-dallas-stars.html
I guess the Dallas power play will be a good test to see whether Pens PK has improved at all after four days' practice.
@SlegrStoleMyWallet Thornton would be amazing though! It makes at least one of our current top 6 guys strengthen the bottom 6. Thornton would be an ABSURD 3rd center. He has 1200 points in the NHL. He has a career 14.2 shooting percentage. He passes like a mother, he dominates in possession. He has 100 points in 132 playoff games. Not many players can score .76 ppg in the playoffs. Think of the other players that do that. They are also awesome. I don't get the disappears in the playoffs thing. That's just not true. Just because the Sharks have been unlucky doesn't mean they arent one of the best teams in the league, have been one of the best teams in the league for years years years, and Thornton is a big part of the reason why.
If Martin is gone anyway, why not? It won't happen though. SJ would need to get more than Martin.
3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/
@PenGeno @Mr. Confidence @brendannn So..........
Where is he, really?
@BML_on_Ice Martin for Thornton would be too good of a deal for the Pens to actually happen. However, I would be delighted.
@hootenanny @dannyjimmy It's fair to say that pure numbers alone cannot possibly tell the whole story. No one would disagree with that. But I think it's also super important (and no one really talks about this) that you don't do the opposite. I'm speaking of this notion of "the whole story." The problem with experience and the role it plays in the constructive of narrative is that it typically lacks an understanding of contingency. For example, you see Fleury come across and stop Lindstrom's shot at the end of Game 7 in 2009 and that experience has an undeservedly large influence on the story, as it was written/told. When in reality, there was a chance he saved it and a chance he didn't. If he hadn't, there was a great chance he wouldn't be a Penguin afterward. But he did. And he was called a Stanley Cup champion caliber goaltender. Like Cam Ward. The entire story isn't something you only get from the numbers. But the story is only the story. How particular stories (in any context) come to dominate popular ideas and common sense is an interesting process and worth looking into. But the numbers (especially with large data sets) give you other views; they give you the opportunity to ask: What are the various factors that mediate my experience? Which of them do I know about, and which of them operate whether I notice their effects or not? How much does luck play in success? Is it possible that success, separate from ability, leads to the construction of stories that are inaccurate? Fleury is like Ward or Niemi or even Crawford in this respect. Championships mean huge contracts, whether earned or not, because the whole story often mistakes correlation with causality, and rewards accordingly.
3 weeks, 2 days ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/14594.html
@jivory it's all on nhl.com
61 goaltenders played at least 20 games last year. Fleury was 42nd of 61 goaltenders on that list in even-strength save percentage. He was 30th on that list in total save percentage. He was 18th in goals against average. He was 2nd in wins lol.
@hootenanny I like this guy's "Win Threshold" idea; it gives you a pretty clear understanding of how team play contextualizes goaltender performance. http://brodeurisafraud.blogspot.com/2009/10/win-threshold.html
You can use it to see just how much slack the Penguins as a team give Fleury.
@p1ttsportsfan @jmarshfof That was like Ludqvist's worst year; almost all of Fleury's seasons were worse than Lunqvist. You can't compare the two really at all. Lundqvist is an elite goaltender. On the career level, Fleury is a tenth of a percentage point behind Lundqvist in save percentage and has a higher GAA by .36 Not to mention the fact that the discrepancy between the two grows even more so if you look only at even strength save percentage (it's widely held that PP and PK sv% vary wildly in ways that are outside the goaltenders' control--they vary for all goaltenders--so that data is not reliable).
Fleury had one awesome year--2007-08. With the cup win, he got a big contract. But that makes him no different from Cam Ward. I'm not sure he was worse against Philly in 2012 than he was against Washington in 2009. The difference of course was that the Penguins won and no one ended up caring until it was too late. Where is Fleury right now if the Pens didn't bail him out against the Caps in 2009 though? Sewing novelty neckties in Hackensack.
The bottom line I think with the whole Fleury vs average thing is that you have to imagine that when it comes to Fleury, it doesn't matter who your goaltender really is because Fleury is totally replaceable. Losing him would not matter. If you get a true elite goaltender that's great (expensive, but great). There aren't many of them. Rask, Lunqvist, probably Price, probably not Quick, etc. If you don't (and most teams can't by definition), there's really little reason to value one particular goaltender over another.
@Billyho I heard the Islanders over/under is way too low and would be a relatively safe bet. Also Colorado's I heard was way too high. Is that true? Where do you look up the vegas lines? I've never really done it.
3 weeks, 6 days ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/recap-preseason-game-5-vs-red-wings.html
@Billyho shit really!!!! I might bet against that and I never gamble.
@Billyho KK for nine games though right?
@Billyho Zatkoff hahahahaha
@PenGeno @dannyjimmy The Scuderi buyout referendum. November 2014. November 2016 is too late.
1 month ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/thirdpres.html
@PenGeno @dannyjimmy I don't really have any money. I would agree to participate in the drafting of a petition; we could formulate a concise argument presenting overwhelming evidence for it as a business move and intelligent roster decision, and then gather signatures. It's probably too late to get it listed on the Pittsburgh municipal or Allegheny County ballot box this November as an initiative or a referendum, but whatever. Do we have anyone in Penguins realm who specializes in referendum strategizing? PA does have state mandates for charter cities and counties guaranteeing the right to a referendum based on number of signatures.
Democracy, or whatever.
@PenGeno @dannyjimmy Oh man I forgot about that part. Yea, at this point trading him and retaining salary is prob better than keeping him. Buying him out would probably be slightly better.
Rob Scuderi buyout from CapGeek.com
The buyout is a lower cap hit than trading and retaining between 40% and 60% of his salary, but with an additional year w a small cap hit.
@KyleSchroeck @Zhan No harm in losing Zatkoff. Greiss #1, Fleury #2!!!!!!!!! Fleury is an excellent backup goaltender.
@PenGeno I sat in the end where pens defend twice last night. He still ices the puck all the time; he's old and slow. He's got to be 6th or 7th Dman I hope I hope I hope.
@LP66 @PenGeno Pens prospects vs US prospects on the moon 10pm Sunday.
1 month ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/preseason-gameday-minnesota-wild-pittsburgh-penguins.html
@LoranMannIsTheMan In the East they easily make the playoffs. In the West they prob end up wildcard. Same statements hold for Pens.
@Redacted_66 @dannyjimmy both Minn and SJ will make the playoffs, no? Fairly certain they will. Minn maybe gets the wildcard. San Jose wins their division like almost every year. This could be San Jose's year; you have to figure sooner or later they get it with that team.
Parise Koivu Pominville, Vanek Granlund Keranen. That should be decisive. We'll get to see how the youths handle being destroyed. I'm going to this one. Excited to see how the new guys and the young guys handle being outmatched.
@Mrmcgibblets @Zhan ugh letang. so terrible.
1 month ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/
re: zac sill vs craig adams: ideally you go with neither, right? Adams doesn't have the ability to be a regular starter anymore. It's cool. No biggie.
@brendannn look at their D pairings though. No Zetterberg either. Also, hahaha their D pairings.
1 month, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/
You got dem good zings going. I see tpb training camp is officially in session. So many revving engines.
1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/pens-delivered-tickets-today.html
@mwn3d @Claude Giroux's Arresting Officer Yea so 1) you can't put a fake faceoff man in the circle, anticipating that he'll get kicked out, after which you put your real faceoff guy in, because they make the first guy retake the draw.
and 2) it has the drawbacks of like a fault serve in tennis because you only get one redo and then you suffer. Puts pressure on the second draw; even if you screw up honest it's a penalty so you're at a disadvantage if you get warned in the circle after icing.
1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/nhls-new-rules-and-what-it-means-for-you.html
@DoorMatt @FuuManChuMan If Letang's bad decision habits end up having been a consequence of Bylsma's coaching system and not a consequence of Letang's bad decision habits, I'll wear lady underwear on gamedays for a month and send pics to whoever wants them.
Can the responsible media persons be identified, ridiculed, and publicly humiliated for publishing this "story"? LOL hoaxes. I swear one day my dream will come true--I'll wake up, open the paper, and the front page headline will say:
YOUR MOM IS GAY
1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/here-is-a-pic-of-the-front-page-of-the-ottawa-sun-when-they-thought-sidney-crosby-was-arrested.html
@pawsbyandmeowkin yea, still not buying. When I turn on the car radio and hear the words "hooters" and "pornstar" coming out of his fat disgusting throat it makes me want to let my car drift off the road. But then I remember that I can turn the radio off. And I do that instead.
2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/madden-malkin-not-impressed-by-johnston.html
wings and prepare to fly
For you have
become a Sutterfly
abandonedly into the sun
If you should return to me
were meant to be
your wings and fly
through the sky
wings and fly
2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/
@Hibbits @dannyjimmy Penner would prob sign for less (as other UFAs have been doing), but yes at any rate Scuderi would have to go
Sign. Dustin. Penner.
@Beaube Nett Odds are pretty strong that Greiss is better than Fleury.
@brendannn @jmarshhh @ignoramus DEFEND THE MOLD
2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/according-to-many-nick-spaling-sucks-and-is-overpaid-because-his-advanced-stats-arent-great.html
@Animals LOL Paul Gaustad
3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/
A draw, really? I think Wilson is the clear winner here.
3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/rob-rossis-malkinjohnston-column-faces-harsh-criticism-should-it.html
Trading Malkin. Here we go. Malkin is like the greatest center in the league (after Crosby), and one should NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER TRADE HIM EVER. That's as silly as trading Crosby. Trading Malkin for more good players is like agreeing to give an evil intelligent dog your arms as a meal in exchange for the car you always wanted.
@NickDobda Ridiculous right? What I have been seeing all over the interwebz is people asking of the Capitals, 'if you've decided to bolster your blueline by raiding another team's defensive corps, why pick the Penguins of all teams!?' hahaha
Barry Trotz a "retread" and Mike Johnston "full of potential?" Trotz is elite, he's barely 50 years old, and has been coaching in the NHL for 15 years. Any team would love to have him as their coach, if they needed a coach. Penguins could have made him an offer if they didn't wait so long to officially fire their coach. I wish Barry Trotz was our coach. That would've been amazing.
Johnston is 57 and hasn't coached a day in the NHL, except as an assistant. If you're going to honestly evaluate these two clubs, for what it's worth Washington has the clear edge in coaching. Then again, anyone would have been an improvement over Adam Oates, who I think is maybe the worst head coach I can think of ever.
3 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/heres-matt-niskanen-in-a-caps-jersey.html
@PenGeno @Claude Giroux's Arresting Officer @3TProductions
Hold On To Your Butts.
3 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/sidney-crosby-needs-wrist-surgery.html
@rderr27 @bobbykimberley Kapanen top 6?? haha he's 18 years old 5-10 and 165 lbs. Never played in North America. He's top 9 WBS, for sure.
3 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/brian-gibbons-signs-with-columbus.html
@Pot Ash @dannyjimmy @Non Here is the direct link: http://capgeek.com/buyout-calculator/?player_id=491
unless tPb doesn't allow the posting of links in their comments sections, and I feel like they understandably don't, in which case no one will ever see this.
3 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/pens-ink-steve-downie-to-1-year-deal.html
@Pot Ash @dannyjimmy @Non au contraire, Pot Ash, there is. According to capgeek anyway (and when are they ever wrong?). So if you go to capgeek website and select 'Penguins' and select 'Scuderi' and select 'buyout', you'll see what has influenced me.
@brendannn @ac2012 Well, There were 62 goalies who played at least 20 games last year. Fleury played 64, Greiss played 25, and Zatkoff played 20. Greiss blew both of them out of the water on even strength save percentage:
Greiss - .932
Fleury - .917
Zatkoff - .916
The problem with Zatkoff is that he isn't even as good as (or he's only as good as) Fleury. Most backups are better than or equal to Fleury. Greiss is 28 and played backup for the Sharks for years. Either he sucks and never deserved a chance, or he never got a chance. Let's find out. If Fleury is gone after this upcoming season, Pens need to start figuring that shit out.
3 months, 4 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/the-dream-dies-kulemin-signs-with-the-islanders.html
@Beaube Nett $7.3 ? Not including Sutter, Spaling, Depres, Megna, Samuelsson, Farnham? If they all take their QOs I think we gotz just under $200,000.00
@Josh Boyd @dannyjimmy Sure you can. In fact, it'd be fantastic. Instead of paying him $3.375 million for the next three years, with a $3.375 million cap hit for each of the next three years, You'd pay this:
2014-15 $1,055,556 paid to Scuderi (but only $430,556 cap hit)
2015-16 $1,055,556 paid to Scuderi (but $1,430,556 cap hit)
2016-17 $1,055,556 paid to Scuderi (but $1,930,556 cap hit)
2017-18 $1,055,556 paid to Scuderi (and $1,055,556 cap hit)
2018-19 $1,055,556 paid to Scuderi (and $1,055,556 cap hit)
2019-20 $1,055,556 paid to Scuderi (and $1,055,556 cap hit)
It spreads the cap hit over twice the length of term, with more cap relief built into the front end of the buyout and minimal damage on the back end because of incremental increases in salary cap. Of course it's not all roses, but it's better than having Scuderi and not being able to add affordable free agent forwards that make the team better.
How will next year's free agency crop compare to this one? How about the year after that? Will those free agencies be better or worse? Who is Rutherford going to pick up at the trade deadline? What terrible teams with good wingers are going to be terrible enough to sell off their good wingers to the Penguins at the trade deadline? What do the Pens give up at the deadline? Draft picks? UGH.
Signing Kulemin and Grabovski is maybe not the greatest idea for Penguins, but on the other hand, they probably would have taken slightly less money to play on the Penguins (maybe...), and then you can trade Sutter for goodies--you're giving another team a solid 3rd center who is also an RFA so the team that gets him has a great amount of control over him, etc.; you could get something young plus a 1st rd draft pick even. AND you fit Grabovski and Kulemin on your team for 3-5 years. Grabovski now is better than Sutter will ever become anyway.
4 months ago on Conversation @ http://thepensblog.com/2014-archives/the-dream-dies-kulemin-signs-with-the-islanders.html
All they had to do was buy out Scuderi and not sign Downie.