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 @El Prez Yeah, +/- on a single game, single player level is ridiculously noisy.  Over many games or used for units (3-5 players) is where it ends up being really meaningful.

1 year, 6 months ago on Thunder cruise into 2013 with 114-96 win over Phoenix

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 @novelisticbee0 He made 4 of his 8 FT's (4 possessions) during that stint.  On the night the Lakers only scored 105 points on 103 possessions.  Leaving Dwight in there wasn't why they lost.

1 year, 7 months ago on The Thunder hang on in Brooklyn, 117-111

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 @OBoy Jones III  @Perk90X  @MisterJohnsonOKC  @justin_mia He only had 4 all year during the regular season.  And 3 in the playoffs...all against the heat :/.

1 year, 7 months ago on The Thunder hang on in Brooklyn, 117-111

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 @FF_pickups I don't know, Hollinger's pre-season projection (for Harden with the thunder) was a PER of 20.81, and his current is 20.42.  That's pretty accurate under any circumstances but particularly considering a change in teams (which is often accompanied by a difficult to project shift in not only frequency of usage but also method).

 

His TS% is down quite a bit from last year, but I bet 9/10 analytics guys would've nailed that prediction.  It's tough to replicate a historically great anything every year (and his .660 last year was historically great for his usage%).

1 year, 8 months ago on Thunder get their signature win, top Clips in OT 117-111

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A lot of comparisons of players at the max are errant. Because it's a max, there's a lot of players that are WAY below what they are worth (KD and the upper echelon of stars). Harden is really fairly compensated at $16m/yr. in terms of his production and probably will offer a bit of value above that with a bump in minutes, touches, and experience. Comparing two players at the max and concluding that one is "overpaid" is errant because most players that are making the max are underpaid (some of them wildly so).

1 year, 8 months ago on With Thunder U shaken, believe in Kevin Durant

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 @Crow  Normally I think playoff jitters are a much smaller factor than they get credit for, but in the Clippers case it was the exact opposite for DeAndre Jordan.  It was like someone had kidnapped him and replaced him with a frightened child.  And it really just seemed to get worse as the playoffs went on (Del Negro yanked him early in a few when he started timid and he looked completely terrified from there on out).

 

Toss in Paul & Blake's injuries as the playoffs went on and you end up with their starting lineup completely abandoning them.

 

Subjectively I feel like they'll be a lot better the next go-round since it won't be DJ's first dance (provided health for Blake and Paul).  Well that and they can't hardly be worse.

2 years ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Hail the Beard

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  @thunderatom  

We were 33-10 with an avg MOV of 6.9 when Westbrook had as many or more FGA than Durant (RS & PO's 2011-12)

 

We were 27-16 with an avg MOV of 4.3 when Durant had more FGA than Westbrook.

 

I've been meaning to look at strength of schedule for those 2 groups, haven't gotten around to it though.

2 years ago on Westbrook, Durant and Harden all make Team USA

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 @ElMexiThunder  @BRY BRY Its a longshot, but I'm wondering if Cuban's temperance (or failures, depending on how you want to look at it) this summer is going to work out pretty well for him next summer when it sinks in with everyone else that they *really* don't want to be perpetual tax payers.

2 years ago on Westbrook, Durant and Harden all make Team USA

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 @ou_sas  @justin_mia  @diddoff  @gnaygg Yup, don't forget Serge!

2 years ago on Oklahoma City’s summer league roster

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 @justin_mia  @El Prez  @Daniel OBoymuzik  @K-Dagger Daniel Plainview That too.  Seems like for them to make that move they'd have to be getting a pretty clear upgrade, and if Taj wasn't involved in the trade he and Serge are fairly redundant.

2 years ago on Oklahoma City’s summer league schedule

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 @El Prez Once we get up to ~$12m that we'd be paying noah, I get more optimistic about our odds of resigning ibaka (and all else equal I think we'd probably be better off with Serge).

 

Serge for Noah does sound as good or better than anything else if Serge is definitely looking for the max though.

2 years ago on Oklahoma City’s summer league schedule

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 @Crow Admittedly its rough, but I've been messing around with the few days pegging production/value levels for contracts.  Initial results (and there's still some things I'd want to tweak) had Perk listed as the 34th worst value in the league (out of 352 with qualifying minutes).

 

Other interesting one was Deron Williams new contract down around the 75th worst.

2 years ago on Friday Bolts – 7.6.12

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 @neo12  Gordon I think has already set Harden's market at 14.5.

 

So its pretty much however much of a discount Harden's willing to give at this point (12-13m is about what I'm hoping for).

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @MisterJohnsonOKC  That was funny, but now I just feel bad for Perk Sr.

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @gnaygg  Honestly, I'd have to consider Maynor just for CP3's kid (which says way more about his kid than Maynor)

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @Daniel Hawaii  Someone mentioned it, but they can't possibly shoot better from 3 than they did in the Finals.  (They'll approach it more consistantly probably, but exceed it...nah).

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @Daniel OBoymuzik  Not 100% but I think Lowry was wanting to leave (miffed with McHale over losing his starting job when he went out for a bit).

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @MisterJohnsonOKC  They haven't resigned him yet, but I'd be a bit surprised if they didn't (he actually fit in coming off the bench pretty well).

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @MisterJohnsonOKC  @Daniel Hawaii  @shiki  @Daniel OBoymuzik Rubio's just an ACL.  It takes awhile to get back from, and a bit longer to trust it again, but that's not uncommon or persistant once it's healed up (usually).

 

Roy is missing the cartilage in his knee (really seems like some smart guy would figure out an artificial substitute, but evidently its harder than all that).

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @K-Dagger Daniel Plainview  True, but I hate their offseason so far (live near LA so they're probably #2 for me).  Lamar for Mo was a joke (Mo was an asset, Lamar, meh).  Reggie Evans had horrifying numbers, but in my opinion earned a roster spot in the PO's (and the fans loved him).  I love Bledsoe (particularly with Paul as a small 2), but then they went out and signed Crawford and Billups which nixed that.

 

I think they'll still be good, but they really just needed to add a capable wing defender that could shoot a little (probably for Mo) and they would've been gold.

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @ThunderBelize in 12-18 mins more realistic would be like 5pts/4 boards/1 block

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @Daniel Hawaii  Its probably overpaying him a bit at this point, but his 4th quarter against dallas in the 2010-11 playoffs still holds a special place on my DVR.  Who knows, maybe he's got his knees straight and it will end up a bargain.  Glad to see him get another shot.

2 years ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich

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 @MrRaysianHe didn't receive a qualifying offer I don't believe (as the 2nd pick of his draft his QO would've been in the ~6m/yr range).  So he's not a RFA.

2 years ago on Hasheem Thabeet is signing with the Thunder

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 @Daniel Jooseppi  I don't know as they're that misleading, 12 pts per 36 minutes isn't saying anything particularly wonderful about a guy.  It just sounds that way because our reference point is Perk @ 6.9 per 36mins (and it doesn't seem like a stretch to say that both of these guys are probably better than he is offensively).

2 years ago on Hasheem Thabeet is signing with the Thunder

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 @S4TISF4CTION That doesn't impact their ability to match Ebanks I don't believe, but it does make him cost ~3.5x whatever he gets signed for (filling 4 roster spots with min guys puts them into the 3rd tier of the tax where its an additional $2.50 on the dollar)

2 years ago on Hasheem Thabeet is signing with the Thunder

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 @S4TISF4CTION  Mmm, I think they're tied to minimum deals and the bi-annual exception now.  They have 78.1m committed for next season to 8 players (assuming they amnesty Artest).

2 years ago on Hasheem Thabeet is signing with the Thunder

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 @justin_mia And in case I wasn't clear at the start, I'm a Perk fan, and honestly am not trying to make a case for Thabeet to start or anything.

 

I was just curious.  Perk has the undisputed edge in all those things that Brooks loves that don't show up in boxscores.  (presumably its scowliness).

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @justin_mia Yeah, that's reflected in the PPP(def).  Perk averaged ~9.3 possessions per game where he was the man defender (so -1.3 ppg).  Thabeet's higher offensive rebounding though (.6 pos/27 mins and increased efficiency (~.7 pts/27 mins) offset it pretty closely.

 

Thabeet does foul alot (5.0/27 mins vs. 3.0/27 mins for Perk), but that's largely already baked into the PPP(def).

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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First off, let me state that I like Perk and think he's was crucial in several ways to the team arriving at this point (albeit most of the effect off the court), and serves a vital role vs. the Howards and Bynums of the world.  I'm under no illusions that Thabeet's signing was anything but an insurance/long-shot potential play.

 

But, out of curiosity I decided to roll up a comparison between Perk's Thunder career (2170 mins) and Thabeet's career (1400 mins):

 

Perk Thabeet

Off Rat 96 107

Def Rat 103 105

PPP (off) .81 .91

PPP (def) .79 .93

OReb % 8.9 10.4

DReb % 20.1 19.9

Blk % 2.9 6.3

TO R 23.2 20.9

Ast R 14.5 4.5

Usg 10.9 10.3

TS% .530 .569

WS/48 .054 .091

 

For better or worse, it was a lot closer than I expected.

 

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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They have 78.1m committed for next year w/o Artest and 5 roster spots to fill.  If they do it for 1.1 per they'd be at 83.6m salary with a tax bill ~24.5m (108.1m total).

 

If they keep Artest they'd have 89.75 committed in salary with a tax bill of ~43.2m (133m total).

 

Jooseppi is probably right, that won't break them.  (Rumors on the TV deal were ~$150m per season)

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Daniel Hawaii  @Jooseppi Oh I don't think it would be a good deal value-wise, just that the move they made on Fields made less sense than backing a truck up Nash's house and dumping $$ all over the lawn.

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Daniel Hawaii  @Jax Raging Bile Duct Well I guess my feeling is offering 3/20m to fields (when he's probably worth 3/8) makes it seem like they were spending 48m on Nash either way.

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Crow  @Jooseppi I actually really enjoy watching Kobe (sick I know), but I'm not sure there's a team that could profitably trade for him at this point (his contract is enormous).

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Daniel Hawaii  @Jax Raging Bile Duct It seemed like they would've been much better off just throwing more money at Nash instead of trying to be sneaky and handcuffing NY.

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @ElMexiThunder Adjusting for minutes he's 2nd in adjusted plus/minus (Fields passes him) and 3rd in value added (counting stat version of PER).

 

The minutes weighted defensive efficiency of the teams he played against was 101.4 (league average 101.8).

 

I'm not saying he was amazing.  Most evaluations I've seen rank him as probably a bit better than league average and that seems right to me.  Compounded with there being no effective alternatives to take his minutes, his impact for the team was quite large (I think the case is pretty strong for 3rd largest, but I can agree to disagree).

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @ElMexiThunder Lin ranked 2nd in PER and 1st in adjusted plus minus, so 3rd feels about right to me.  I'd rank them Tyson, Carmelo, Lin, Amare (his raw stats were pretty poor last year and his 1 & 2 yr +/- was horrifying).  

 

Maybe 3rd best is the wrong term and 3rd most important would suit better, mostly because they had zero effective options to replace his minutes.

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Coletrain17 Yeah, this seems like a pretty poor fit for the Lakers.  None of their primary offensive pieces really lacked the capability to create their own shot, and they've been destroyed the past several years by quick pgs.  He's a large shooting upgrade over Blake/Sessions, but for the $ that was getting tossed around, they paid a steep price.

 

I guess its possible that adding him makes them a completely next level offense, but I'm having a hard time seeing why that would be.

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @ElMexiThunder Oh, I agree, was just shooting for closest approximation (3rd best player + wing defender going down and defensive center laying an egg).

 

Harden and Thabo are definitely superior to the counterparts, but Chandler is a pretty dramatic upgrade over Perk too (and Lin's value is amplified on that roster b/c they ended up having to replace his minutes with J.R. Smith running point).

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @ElMexiThunder  The knicks looked horrible in the POs, but that was also with lin out, shump going down early, and Chandler playing well below his norms.  I think they're probably closer than it looked on the court.  (similar impact for us would've been harden being out, thabo going down, and Perkins actively turning around and playing as the other teams 6th defender.

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 I'll be very disappointed if Toronto manages to miss out on him.  It was puzzling that they threw $20m at Fields to complicate a NYK sign and trade rather than just sweetening the deal for Nash (say 48 for 3, way overpaying, but probably a better value than 3/36 and 3/20 for Nash and Fields.

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Crow  Westbrook actually had pretty strong positive interactions with the harden/collison pair both in the regular season and playoffs last year (+6.7 net RS, +27.4 PO).  Those both ranked 3rd on the team (so slightly above mid-pack).

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @dancassidy35  @Crow From who he brings in, seems like he's just perusing the discount rack, bringing folks in, making a call on if there's a potential bargain.

 

I'm fine with that.  Even standing pat I think we'd have to be the favorites for the title next year? (Based mostly on another year on Wade and the merry men's odometer vs. our guys entering their age 23 and 24 seasons).

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Grolgar I agree for this next year, but Terry is 34 and $15m for the age 35, 36, and 37 seasons isn't a slam dunk.  Based on his trends the last 3-4 years, the sheet I've been toying with puts him ~6m value this year, 5 and then 3-4.  I'd guess over the life of the deal its probably a coinflip on if they get any value out of it.

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Lost Ones  Perkins contract would've been fine/possibly even good if he could've returned to anything like the player he was before his knee injury (he was actually quite efficient with his shots and a largely superior rebounder to what he's been).  It just hasn't worked out that way, and he's become something of an offensive tragedy, shooting inefficiently, turning the ball over even more, and rebounding less effectively.

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Prye05  @justin_mia I like it.  It mostly depends on which you believe though, 4 years and 300 games worth of data that say he's a slightly below average big across the board, or 37 games that say he's solidly above average.

 

His improvement was across a pretty broad range (15% rebounding, 50% passing, 5% efficiency, 10% volume, 5% turnover reduction) so that would tend to bode well for it being sustainable.

 

 

2 years ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition

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 @Prye05  @Daniel Hawaii I really think that a year or two with the more strict tax will bring about some price correction for player salaries, just so far this offseason it definitely hasn't sunk in for the GM's, and I'd be surprised if it manifests by the time Serge & James sign their next deals.

2 years ago on Thunder interested in Devin Ebanks and Roger Mason?

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 @El Prez Basically the new CBA was all like "Oh yeah?  How about we make the tax a GAJILLION dollars?!"  and everyone was like "Hrm, yeah that oughta work, no one would be able to sustain paying a GAJILLION".

 

Except evidently gajillion doesn't translate to Russian.  

2 years ago on Thunder interested in Devin Ebanks and Roger Mason?

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 @Prye05  @Daniel Hawaii Wilts team lost 7 more games the following season and 20 more the season after that (after he was traded).

 

Shaq's team lost 15 and 19 more games the following 2 seasons.

 

Those probably aren't the best examples of finding value.

2 years ago on Thunder interested in Devin Ebanks and Roger Mason?

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 @OBoymuzik  @Lost Ones  I haven't seen a 9m figure for Ibaka, that's way below his market though.

 

Using the average rank in Per/VA/1yr APM/2yr APM Serge ranks in the 66th percentile (mostly due to his low minutes)  his closest comps as far as big men not on the rookie scale are:

 

Joakim Noah - 12m  (71st %)

Tyson Chandler - 13.1m (69th %)

David Lee - 11.6m  (68th %)

Hibbert - FA (offered the max by Portland)   (67th %)

David West - 10m  (65th %)

Nene - 13m  (64th %)

Varajao - 7.7m  (61st %)

 

Based only on production on the table, a conservative market price for Ibaka would be ~12m or a bit more.  But he's also younger than all of those guys, and is nowhere near maximum usage in terms of minutes.

 

 

2 years ago on Thunder interested in Devin Ebanks and Roger Mason?

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 @moriarty84  Harden love incoming:

 

There have been 25 full perimeter player seasons since the NBA/ABA merger with a usage over 20% and a true shooting % over .620.

Reggie Miller (6 times)

Adrian Dantley (5 times)

Magic Johnson (4)

Steve Nash (3)

Chris Mullen (1) 

Ray Allen (1)

Peja Stojakavic (1)

Mark Price (1)

Dana Barros (1)

Kevin Johnson (1)

James Harden (1)

 

Of those, James is the youngest to do it (Dantley managed it at 23, Price and Miller at 24). He was also the highest TS% (.660) of the group.

 

His 125 offensive rating for the season was the 20th highest ever for a season with qualifying minutes (>41 games, >30mpg), and he was the youngest person to post an offensive rating that high (Stockton, Barkley, and Reggie Miller all did it in their age 25 season to tie for the next youngest).

 

2 years ago on Thunder interested in Devin Ebanks and Roger Mason?

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 @Lost Ones  @ILikePancakes Should mention the APM numbers are season long (so playing time mattered).

 

For comparison, Harden was 30th in PER, 20th in VA, 4th in APM, 41st in 2yr APM.  And he's 22.

2 years ago on Thunder interested in Devin Ebanks and Roger Mason?

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 @Lost Ones  @ILikePancakes I am leaning that direction as well.

 

Williams ranked 35th in PER, 26th in value added (counting stat version of PER), 108th in adjusted plus/minus, and 109th in 2yr adjusted plus minus.

 

Max guys (via market distribution) really should only be the top 20-25 players in the league, and his case for that is borderline.  Additionally, his PER last year was within a quarter point of his projected PER, and less than a point off his career high.

 

At 28 (will be 34 by the end of the deal) his contract seems really optimistic.

2 years ago on Thunder interested in Devin Ebanks and Roger Mason?

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 @EatSleepThunder I especially like none of the teams managed to improve

2 years ago on Thunder interested in Devin Ebanks and Roger Mason?

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 @Lost Ones Well, like KD's net defensive efficiency the past two years were +2 this year, +5 last year

Lebron was -1.6 and -4.5 (negative is good)

Iguodala was -5.1 and -4.0

 

Not sure why but the Grizzly on/off data isn't available :/

2 years ago on Thunder and Scott Brooks officially agree to contract

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 @Lost Ones Well, in the context of his on/off court defensive splits I think whoever mentioned him as a pretty strong on ball defender but a pretty meh team defender is probably close to spot on.

2 years ago on Thunder and Scott Brooks officially agree to contract

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 @Lost Ones  Defensively:

Durant was .64 PPP in isolation (.89 on spot ups)

Lebron was .69 in isolation and 1.02 on spot ups

Iguodala was .86 in isolation and .80 on spot ups

Tony Allen was .70 in isolation and 1.01 on spot ups

2 years ago on Thunder and Scott Brooks officially agree to contract

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 @Lost Ones  He averaged 5.1 rebounds per 36min in the finals (down from 7.2 on the year)

2 years ago on Thunder and Scott Brooks officially agree to contract

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 @FREE_COLE  @Lost Ones  @justin_mia  @bmuelle21 He was about +2 net defensively (not good) this year.  +5 last year (even worse).  His 2011-2012 net defensive rating for the playoffs was actually slightly negative (-.3) but with only 123 minutes off the court in the playoffs, that number isn't terribly reliable.

2 years ago on Thunder and Scott Brooks officially agree to contract

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 @FF_pickups  @OBoymuzik Bird rights require 3 years from the last change of teams via free agency

2 years ago on Thunder and Scott Brooks officially agree to contract

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 @Lost Ones  We can't offer 5 for the extension, but if we allow them to become unrestricted free agents, near as I can tell Bird rights apply (at least for Harden and Ibaka) and that should allow us to offer up to 5 years.

 

 

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @Lost Ones  @Old Man Game I think the main advantage we would have would be the additional year we can offer.  So even though someone else can offer 4yrs/58m to them as a RFA, we could offer something like 5/65 and still be relatively competitive (just because there is a larger guaranteed sum).

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @Old Man Game  @Lost Ones Other interesting part that that site seems to talk about (I was pretty sure I'd read it somewhere but didn't have a source) is that the tax liability is linked to where the games are played.  So even though you'd play more games at 0% if you played in Florida or TX, the actual tax benefit is only ~half that since states can claim taxes on income earned while you're playing their team.

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @Old Man Game  @Stringer Bell Yes.  And Russ already did by passing on his Rose rule bonus (Think it works out to ~14m that he left on the table).

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @jdstorm True, that's part of why I'm so excited about PJ3 though, probably not as good as that lineup offensively, but plugging him in at the 4 and swapping ibaka in to the 5 has the potential to be ridiculous defensively (and not shabby on the offensive end).

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @jdstorm Yeah, I like him a lot.

 

Actually the fan in me really wanted him on the Clips.  Would've been such a massive upgrade over Butler.

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @Jooseppi  @FREE_COLE  @jdstorm  @Daniel Plainview Yeah, Serge is going to be up near the max.

 

DeAndre Jordan sorta set the floor for a lot of these athletic bigs (4yrs/$43m).

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @jdstorm What Thunder said.

PJ3 had an 11.31s on the agility and 3.19s on the speed drills

 

MKG had a 11.7 & 3.18

Harrison Barnes 10.93 & 3.16 (fastest at the combine)

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @justin_mia  

Probably similar.  Perkins had a -7.9 net offensive rating this past year.

 

In ~1400 minutes Thabeet has posted a -4.8 net OR for his career.

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @jdstorm  Perry's much quicker/faster than Marion/Battier (probably close with Batum).  That's 90% of what's crazy about him.

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @Lost Ones From the trade through the end of this years playoffs:

 

mpg    pt/36  A/36  R/36  ppp   pos/36  to/36

30.9   18.6   3.9     4.9   1.10  17.0       2.3            shooting splits .473/.366/.847

 

Just last year (JG trade thru end of 2010-11 POffs)

mpg    pt/36  A/36  R/36  ppp   pos/36  to/36

29.9   17.6   3.5     4.7   1.09  16.2       1.9            shooting splits  .465/.314/.845

 

This year

mpg    pt/36  A/36  R/36  ppp   pos/36  to/36

31.4   19.1   4.2     4.9    1.11  17.3      2.5            shooting splits   .477/.395/.848

 

 

 

 

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @Daniel Plainview Javale's agent was making noise about some very near max deal right before Washington traded him.

 

Doubtful he'd get it, but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if he got in the $12-13 range (DeAndre Jordan getting 4 yrs/43 m seems about his floor).

2 years ago on OKC the ‘most likely’ landing spot for Hasheem Thabeet?

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 @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones  @Grolgar I'll be a little surprised if any of the teams continue to operate in the tax area habitually once the new levels kick in.  It's a lot of money to throw at even a pretty small incremental improvement (relative to what the tax has been).

 

The canary in the coal mine I think is Cuban with the Mavs, if he's not in for the tax, it will be very surprising if other owners are.

2 years ago on Scott Brooks closing in on new contract with the Thunder

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 @loplopol That's hilarious.  Nash just went up like a gorillion points in my estimation (honorable mention to jared dudley as well)

2 years ago on Thunder select Perry Jones III with the 28th pick

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 @GrantGates We averaged 18.7 per game during the regular season, we just made twice as many.

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @dbenge Sorry!  Loves me some data

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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Hollinger actually wrote about this today.  Short version, in our small lineups regular season/playoffs

 

Perkins +5.0/+5.3

Collison +20.0/+13.1

Serge +19.1/+19.7

 

We give up a lot by having a complete non-threat offensively, and being a step slower than the other two really hurts Perk's defensive value in this series.

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @criznazy53  @No Looker Hooker  @Lost Ones I'm glad Presti makes that call instead of me.  That said, there are worse things that you could do than overpay a bit for a 23 yr old with a pretty unique skillset and lots of room to grow (skillwise).

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @Nick the Quick 4 Life  @criznazy53 I know this isn't actually the case, but I've been wondering if Brooks playing perkins so many minutes just to keep ibaka's #'s in line so we can keep him under max.

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @ThunderStruck2412  @Lost Ones  @Lucas_Allen1In fairness, when he won a championship he was playing a barely under league average offensively.  He's a pretty massive negative in our current offense.

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @OBoymuzik  @ThunderStruck2412 Honest question:  Do ya'll think Brooks is as bad or worse than he was last year?

 

I'm not crazy about some of his stuff, but his chemistry with the guys seems great and that's a lot harder to learn than X's and O's (which I feel like he's been a lot better with this year, and would be likely to improve).

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @TheShiester  @El I agree about Nick, he ought to be an A.  He's had all of his normal intangibles and some decidedly tangible moments...his putback tonight was ridiculous (for him)

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @Lost Ones  @Eggs_Benedict  @Koka_Da_Bauce  @VAThunder I shudder to think of trying to squeeze Russ into Sloan's offense.

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @SB718 Unfortunately Mario had a lot of regressing to do as well :/

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @persiansooner13  @Koka_Da_Bauce  @SB718  @Royce Young Basically someone needs to sit Perk down and discuss small sample sizes with him.

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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 @persiansooner13  @docbndgrl9113 If Nazr plays in game 5 it better have been a 30 point win for us.

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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Here's the thing with teams down 3 to 1 being 0 for 30...that includes a lot of teams that were just flat out-classed.

 

Coming in, most folks figured 7 games/coin-flip type series.  Through 4 games the margin is 1.3.  We honestly have had a great shot in all 4 games.

 

Even a coin flip comes up heads 3 straight times 1 out of 8.  Statistically speaking, it's WAY overdue.

2 years, 1 month ago on Thunder back themselves to elimination in Game 4, 104-98

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The correlations are mostly pretty low (which makes some sense, even playing 48 minutes at 35% usage, a player's offensive data is still <20% of the team data including defense, so much over that may indicate an actual effect).  There's a good chance a lot of them are noise, but here's rate stats that are on the larger side (all of the counting stats tend to be negative to one degree or another, probably due to stars playing more minutes the tighter the game).

 

KD's correlation coeffs:

PPP 0.35

Ast/36 0.34

%possessions 3pta   -0.29

Reb 0.24

usage%   -0.22

 

Westbrook's:

MPAP/36* 0.25

Ast/36 0.23

PPP 0.23

%possessions 3pta -0.21

 

Harden's:

Pts/36 0.26

PPP 0.21

 

*MPAP/36 = (PPP - Perk's PPP)*possessions/36

 

2 years, 1 month ago on Russell Westbrook: Mindset

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 @KoolKeith3000  @loplopol That sounded right to me (that KD should get more shots when he's in the groove), so I ran those #s:

 

For KD (all relative to his averages)

12-5 with a margin of +6.4 when he's high usage/high efficiency .706 W%

25-1 (+11.8) when he's low usage/high efficiency  .962 W%

12-13 (+0.3) when he's high usage/low efficiency .480 W%

11-4 (+5.9) when he's low usage/low efficiency .733 W%

 

Surprisingly we're very ordinary (for us) when he's taking a lot of shots and hitting, about the same as if he's missing and deferring.  We're ridiculous though when he's hitting shots but staying selective with his spots.  The only loss from the 25-1 was G2 vs. the Spurs when they put up 120 on 98 possessions, and probably should've had another 3-4 if they weren't clanking FTs.

 

I thought maybe his usage was just an indicator of how poorly the rest of the team was doing (he'd take more shots if no one else was hitting), but the correlations for Harden's and Westbrook's efficiency to KD's usage are pretty much 0 (-.09 and .06 respectively).

2 years, 1 month ago on Russell Westbrook: Mindset

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 @OBoymuzik Heh, he doesn't move the needle much just b/c he uses so few possessions in the first place (.718 W% when he's over .721 when he's under).

2 years, 1 month ago on Russell Westbrook: Mindset

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Truehoop had a good article on Westbrook yesterday, along those same lines here's some additional interesting figures:

 

On the season (including playoffs)

When Durant & Westbrook both are above their average usage% we're 14-8 with an average margin of +4.7

When both are below their average usage% we're 18-3 with an average margin of +10.0

When Westbrook is above and Durant is below we're 18-2 with an average margin of +9.3

When Durant is above normal and Westbrook is below we're 10-10 with an average margin of +0.7

 

For the playoffs only:

3-2 for Westbrook and Durant above average usage%

4-1 for both below average usage%

5-0 for Westbrook above average and Durant below

1-1 for Durant above and Westbrook below

 

I think a lot of it has to do with their efficiency as their usage increases:

Westbrook's efficiency is .945 pts/pos during his high usage games, and .890 during his low possession games.  The difference between the two is 7.6 possessions for 8.4 points (1.10 PPP).  His assists/36min (5.6 vs. 5.7) and rebounds/36min (4.9 vs. 4.7) stay roughly the same.

Durants on the other hand is 1.02 pts/pos during his high usage games and 1.12 during his low possession games.  The difference between the two is 6.9 possessions for 4.7 points (0.68 PPP).  Durant's assists/36min (2.9 vs. 3.7) and rebounds/36min (6.9 vs. 7.6) also are higher for his low-usage games.

 

Based on the eye test watching the games, some of that is as much effect as cause, but I think its safe to say that Russ staying aggressive is pretty integral to our success and the marginal shots we generate when we force feed KD aren't very high quality.

2 years, 1 month ago on Russell Westbrook: Mindset

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