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@El Prez Yeah, +/- on a single game, single player level is ridiculously noisy. Over many games or used for units (3-5 players) is where it ends up being really meaningful.
2 years, 3 months ago on Thunder cruise into 2013 with 114-96 win over Phoenix
@novelisticbee0 He made 4 of his 8 FT's (4 possessions) during that stint. On the night the Lakers only scored 105 points on 103 possessions. Leaving Dwight in there wasn't why they lost.
2 years, 4 months ago on The Thunder hang on in Brooklyn, 117-111
@OBoy Jones III @Perk90X @MisterJohnsonOKC @justin_mia He only had 4 all year during the regular season. And 3 in the playoffs...all against the heat :/.
@FF_pickups I don't know, Hollinger's pre-season projection (for Harden with the thunder) was a PER of 20.81, and his current is 20.42. That's pretty accurate under any circumstances but particularly considering a change in teams (which is often accompanied by a difficult to project shift in not only frequency of usage but also method).
His TS% is down quite a bit from last year, but I bet 9/10 analytics guys would've nailed that prediction. It's tough to replicate a historically great anything every year (and his .660 last year was historically great for his usage%).
2 years, 5 months ago on Thunder get their signature win, top Clips in OT 117-111
A lot of comparisons of players at the max are errant. Because it's a max, there's a lot of players that are WAY below what they are worth (KD and the upper echelon of stars). Harden is really fairly compensated at $16m/yr. in terms of his production and probably will offer a bit of value above that with a bump in minutes, touches, and experience.
Comparing two players at the max and concluding that one is "overpaid" is errant because most players that are making the max are underpaid (some of them wildly so).
2 years, 5 months ago on With Thunder U shaken, believe in Kevin Durant
@Crow Normally I think playoff jitters are a much smaller factor than they get credit for, but in the Clippers case it was the exact opposite for DeAndre Jordan. It was like someone had kidnapped him and replaced him with a frightened child. And it really just seemed to get worse as the playoffs went on (Del Negro yanked him early in a few when he started timid and he looked completely terrified from there on out).
Toss in Paul & Blake's injuries as the playoffs went on and you end up with their starting lineup completely abandoning them.
Subjectively I feel like they'll be a lot better the next go-round since it won't be DJ's first dance (provided health for Blake and Paul). Well that and they can't hardly be worse.
2 years, 9 months ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Hail the Beard
We were 33-10 with an avg MOV of 6.9 when Westbrook had as many or more FGA than Durant (RS & PO's 2011-12)
We were 27-16 with an avg MOV of 4.3 when Durant had more FGA than Westbrook.
I've been meaning to look at strength of schedule for those 2 groups, haven't gotten around to it though.
2 years, 9 months ago on Westbrook, Durant and Harden all make Team USA
@ElMexiThunder @BRY BRY Its a longshot, but I'm wondering if Cuban's temperance (or failures, depending on how you want to look at it) this summer is going to work out pretty well for him next summer when it sinks in with everyone else that they *really* don't want to be perpetual tax payers.
@K-Dagger Daniel Plainview He declined I believe
@ou_sas @justin_mia @diddoff @gnaygg Yup, don't forget Serge!
2 years, 9 months ago on Oklahoma City’s summer league roster
@justin_mia @El Prez @Daniel OBoymuzik @K-Dagger Daniel Plainview That too. Seems like for them to make that move they'd have to be getting a pretty clear upgrade, and if Taj wasn't involved in the trade he and Serge are fairly redundant.
2 years, 9 months ago on Oklahoma City’s summer league schedule
@El Prez Once we get up to ~$12m that we'd be paying noah, I get more optimistic about our odds of resigning ibaka (and all else equal I think we'd probably be better off with Serge).
Serge for Noah does sound as good or better than anything else if Serge is definitely looking for the max though.
@Crow Admittedly its rough, but I've been messing around with the few days pegging production/value levels for contracts. Initial results (and there's still some things I'd want to tweak) had Perk listed as the 34th worst value in the league (out of 352 with qualifying minutes).
Other interesting one was Deron Williams new contract down around the 75th worst.
2 years, 9 months ago on Friday Bolts – 7.6.12
@neo12 Gordon I think has already set Harden's market at 14.5.
So its pretty much however much of a discount Harden's willing to give at this point (12-13m is about what I'm hoping for).
2 years, 9 months ago on Finally, time for Cole Aldrich
@MisterJohnsonOKC That was funny, but now I just feel bad for Perk Sr.
@gnaygg Honestly, I'd have to consider Maynor just for CP3's kid (which says way more about his kid than Maynor)
@Daniel Hawaii Someone mentioned it, but they can't possibly shoot better from 3 than they did in the Finals. (They'll approach it more consistantly probably, but exceed it...nah).
@Daniel OBoymuzik Not 100% but I think Lowry was wanting to leave (miffed with McHale over losing his starting job when he went out for a bit).
@MisterJohnsonOKC They haven't resigned him yet, but I'd be a bit surprised if they didn't (he actually fit in coming off the bench pretty well).
@MisterJohnsonOKC @Daniel Hawaii @shiki @Daniel OBoymuzik Rubio's just an ACL. It takes awhile to get back from, and a bit longer to trust it again, but that's not uncommon or persistant once it's healed up (usually).
Roy is missing the cartilage in his knee (really seems like some smart guy would figure out an artificial substitute, but evidently its harder than all that).
@K-Dagger Daniel Plainview True, but I hate their offseason so far (live near LA so they're probably #2 for me). Lamar for Mo was a joke (Mo was an asset, Lamar, meh). Reggie Evans had horrifying numbers, but in my opinion earned a roster spot in the PO's (and the fans loved him). I love Bledsoe (particularly with Paul as a small 2), but then they went out and signed Crawford and Billups which nixed that.
I think they'll still be good, but they really just needed to add a capable wing defender that could shoot a little (probably for Mo) and they would've been gold.
@ThunderBelize in 12-18 mins more realistic would be like 5pts/4 boards/1 block
@Daniel Hawaii Its probably overpaying him a bit at this point, but his 4th quarter against dallas in the 2010-11 playoffs still holds a special place on my DVR. Who knows, maybe he's got his knees straight and it will end up a bargain. Glad to see him get another shot.
@MrRaysianHe didn't receive a qualifying offer I don't believe (as the 2nd pick of his draft his QO would've been in the ~6m/yr range). So he's not a RFA.
2 years, 9 months ago on Hasheem Thabeet is signing with the Thunder
@Daniel Jooseppi I don't know as they're that misleading, 12 pts per 36 minutes isn't saying anything particularly wonderful about a guy. It just sounds that way because our reference point is Perk @ 6.9 per 36mins (and it doesn't seem like a stretch to say that both of these guys are probably better than he is offensively).
@S4TISF4CTION That doesn't impact their ability to match Ebanks I don't believe, but it does make him cost ~3.5x whatever he gets signed for (filling 4 roster spots with min guys puts them into the 3rd tier of the tax where its an additional $2.50 on the dollar)
@S4TISF4CTION Mmm, I think they're tied to minimum deals and the bi-annual exception now. They have 78.1m committed for next season to 8 players (assuming they amnesty Artest).
@justin_mia And in case I wasn't clear at the start, I'm a Perk fan, and honestly am not trying to make a case for Thabeet to start or anything.
I was just curious. Perk has the undisputed edge in all those things that Brooks loves that don't show up in boxscores. (presumably its scowliness).
2 years, 9 months ago on Wednesday Bolts – America! Edition
@justin_mia Yeah, that's reflected in the PPP(def). Perk averaged ~9.3 possessions per game where he was the man defender (so -1.3 ppg). Thabeet's higher offensive rebounding though (.6 pos/27 mins and increased efficiency (~.7 pts/27 mins) offset it pretty closely.
Thabeet does foul alot (5.0/27 mins vs. 3.0/27 mins for Perk), but that's largely already baked into the PPP(def).
First off, let me state that I like Perk and think he's was crucial in several ways to the team arriving at this point (albeit most of the effect off the court), and serves a vital role vs. the Howards and Bynums of the world. I'm under no illusions that Thabeet's signing was anything but an insurance/long-shot potential play.
But, out of curiosity I decided to roll up a comparison between Perk's Thunder career (2170 mins) and Thabeet's career (1400 mins):
Off Rat 96 107
Def Rat 103 105
PPP (off) .81 .91
PPP (def) .79 .93
OReb % 8.9 10.4
DReb % 20.1 19.9
Blk % 2.9 6.3
TO R 23.2 20.9
Ast R 14.5 4.5
Usg 10.9 10.3
TS% .530 .569
WS/48 .054 .091
For better or worse, it was a lot closer than I expected.
They have 78.1m committed for next year w/o Artest and 5 roster spots to fill. If they do it for 1.1 per they'd be at 83.6m salary with a tax bill ~24.5m (108.1m total).
If they keep Artest they'd have 89.75 committed in salary with a tax bill of ~43.2m (133m total).
Jooseppi is probably right, that won't break them. (Rumors on the TV deal were ~$150m per season)
@Daniel Hawaii @Jooseppi Oh I don't think it would be a good deal value-wise, just that the move they made on Fields made less sense than backing a truck up Nash's house and dumping $$ all over the lawn.
@Daniel Hawaii @Jax Raging Bile Duct Well I guess my feeling is offering 3/20m to fields (when he's probably worth 3/8) makes it seem like they were spending 48m on Nash either way.
@Crow @Jooseppi I actually really enjoy watching Kobe (sick I know), but I'm not sure there's a team that could profitably trade for him at this point (his contract is enormous).
@Daniel Hawaii @Jax Raging Bile Duct It seemed like they would've been much better off just throwing more money at Nash instead of trying to be sneaky and handcuffing NY.
@ElMexiThunder Adjusting for minutes he's 2nd in adjusted plus/minus (Fields passes him) and 3rd in value added (counting stat version of PER).
The minutes weighted defensive efficiency of the teams he played against was 101.4 (league average 101.8).
I'm not saying he was amazing. Most evaluations I've seen rank him as probably a bit better than league average and that seems right to me. Compounded with there being no effective alternatives to take his minutes, his impact for the team was quite large (I think the case is pretty strong for 3rd largest, but I can agree to disagree).
@ElMexiThunder Lin ranked 2nd in PER and 1st in adjusted plus minus, so 3rd feels about right to me. I'd rank them Tyson, Carmelo, Lin, Amare (his raw stats were pretty poor last year and his 1 & 2 yr +/- was horrifying).
Maybe 3rd best is the wrong term and 3rd most important would suit better, mostly because they had zero effective options to replace his minutes.
@Coletrain17 Yeah, this seems like a pretty poor fit for the Lakers. None of their primary offensive pieces really lacked the capability to create their own shot, and they've been destroyed the past several years by quick pgs. He's a large shooting upgrade over Blake/Sessions, but for the $ that was getting tossed around, they paid a steep price.
I guess its possible that adding him makes them a completely next level offense, but I'm having a hard time seeing why that would be.
@ElMexiThunder Oh, I agree, was just shooting for closest approximation (3rd best player + wing defender going down and defensive center laying an egg).
Harden and Thabo are definitely superior to the counterparts, but Chandler is a pretty dramatic upgrade over Perk too (and Lin's value is amplified on that roster b/c they ended up having to replace his minutes with J.R. Smith running point).
@ElMexiThunder The knicks looked horrible in the POs, but that was also with lin out, shump going down early, and Chandler playing well below his norms. I think they're probably closer than it looked on the court. (similar impact for us would've been harden being out, thabo going down, and Perkins actively turning around and playing as the other teams 6th defender.
I'll be very disappointed if Toronto manages to miss out on him. It was puzzling that they threw $20m at Fields to complicate a NYK sign and trade rather than just sweetening the deal for Nash (say 48 for 3, way overpaying, but probably a better value than 3/36 and 3/20 for Nash and Fields.
@Crow Westbrook actually had pretty strong positive interactions with the harden/collison pair both in the regular season and playoffs last year (+6.7 net RS, +27.4 PO). Those both ranked 3rd on the team (so slightly above mid-pack).
@dancassidy35 @Crow From who he brings in, seems like he's just perusing the discount rack, bringing folks in, making a call on if there's a potential bargain.
I'm fine with that. Even standing pat I think we'd have to be the favorites for the title next year? (Based mostly on another year on Wade and the merry men's odometer vs. our guys entering their age 23 and 24 seasons).
@Grolgar I agree for this next year, but Terry is 34 and $15m for the age 35, 36, and 37 seasons isn't a slam dunk. Based on his trends the last 3-4 years, the sheet I've been toying with puts him ~6m value this year, 5 and then 3-4. I'd guess over the life of the deal its probably a coinflip on if they get any value out of it.
@Lost Ones Perkins contract would've been fine/possibly even good if he could've returned to anything like the player he was before his knee injury (he was actually quite efficient with his shots and a largely superior rebounder to what he's been). It just hasn't worked out that way, and he's become something of an offensive tragedy, shooting inefficiently, turning the ball over even more, and rebounding less effectively.
@Prye05 @justin_mia I like it. It mostly depends on which you believe though, 4 years and 300 games worth of data that say he's a slightly below average big across the board, or 37 games that say he's solidly above average.
His improvement was across a pretty broad range (15% rebounding, 50% passing, 5% efficiency, 10% volume, 5% turnover reduction) so that would tend to bode well for it being sustainable.
@Prye05 @Daniel Hawaii I really think that a year or two with the more strict tax will bring about some price correction for player salaries, just so far this offseason it definitely hasn't sunk in for the GM's, and I'd be surprised if it manifests by the time Serge & James sign their next deals.
2 years, 9 months ago on Thunder interested in Devin Ebanks and Roger Mason?
@El Prez Basically the new CBA was all like "Oh yeah? How about we make the tax a GAJILLION dollars?!" and everyone was like "Hrm, yeah that oughta work, no one would be able to sustain paying a GAJILLION".
Except evidently gajillion doesn't translate to Russian.
@Prye05 @Daniel Hawaii Wilts team lost 7 more games the following season and 20 more the season after that (after he was traded).
Shaq's team lost 15 and 19 more games the following 2 seasons.
Those probably aren't the best examples of finding value.
@OBoymuzik @Lost Ones I haven't seen a 9m figure for Ibaka, that's way below his market though.
Using the average rank in Per/VA/1yr APM/2yr APM Serge ranks in the 66th percentile (mostly due to his low minutes) his closest comps as far as big men not on the rookie scale are:
Joakim Noah - 12m (71st %)
Tyson Chandler - 13.1m (69th %)
David Lee - 11.6m (68th %)
Hibbert - FA (offered the max by Portland) (67th %)
David West - 10m (65th %)
Nene - 13m (64th %)
Varajao - 7.7m (61st %)
Based only on production on the table, a conservative market price for Ibaka would be ~12m or a bit more. But he's also younger than all of those guys, and is nowhere near maximum usage in terms of minutes.