stacher
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there were times this year i watched kershaw and felt like his command took a step back from where it was at last year. by the end of the season it looked like it didnt even matter.
@phattonez7 @Mike Petriello I understand the importance of using statistics and sample size to determine whether a guy is getting unlucky or not, but I think at some point you also have to step back and analyze what is actually happening in the game. You look at his FIP, K/BB, and BABIP and you assume, "holy hell this guy is getting unlucky!" If you watch him pitch and look at where he is locating then I think you can throw all those out the window because he is throwing very hittable pitches and a pretty high rate. Yeah, he might not be walking guys, but he has trouble throwing offspeed for strikes and supplants that with a flat fastball over the middle of the plate, that has generally been around belt high, and that turns into a very hard hit ball. Since none of those hard hit balls have left the park yet, it gives a misleading FIP. His last outing against the Rockies was his most successful because he got his fastball down and threw very good breaking pitches, and I think looking at pitch F/X data will back that up. The problem is he does not do that consistently and when he starts leaving his fastball up in the zone on a regular basis, and that is all a batter is looking for, they will hit it, and they will hit it hard. When he gets the ball down he can be an effective pitcher, and then you will see the correction that you want.
I am all for looking at numbers, but you also have to evaluate actual performance.