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@DaveMcClure I doubt those stats on the 2-3 year $3-5m Dave. I think most go to aqui-hire or death well before that. But that's not my real point. My real point is that as 500 startups and others have been successful (which I love) the VCs have abandoned true Series A investing. That of course is as much an opportunity as a problem, but for now it is a problem. And it means that good companies struggle. Not huge, fast break-out companies, but good companies.
3 months, 1 week ago on A rare defense of venture capital classic
@LoraKolodny @KeithTeare @DaveMcClure I'm not seeing what you are seeing. I'm seeing almost no series A deals for post incubated companies, unless they are exceptional, and then the sky is the limit. Many good companies are forced into acqui-hire or death.
@DaveMcClure I'll take the debate challenge id Sarah won't. I think "incubators" are great. But they have led to VC's deserting the risk based, early stage $2-5m A round market. And incubators can't fill the void.
The Series A crunch is structural and not temporal. It is because of the dual poles of incubation $ (small amounts for big dilution) and growth capital (unlimited amounts for proven winners). In the middle is the valley of death. Not a series A crunch but a structural blood bath.
Worse still the model encourages entrepreneurs to think small and build small, and do it quickly., This is mis-educating the current generation of entrepreneurs. They have to "go back to Go" every 12-18 months and do another small idea.
What is missing? A round Capital. Simple as that. The Series A crunch is actually the series A opportunity. What is needed is "Second Round Capital". Post-incubation or post seed capital. Typically $2-5m for a 18-24 month runway. And the Valley really doesn't have it right now. At least not on any scale.
@FakeValley due diligence is BS for the most part. It can't find a good idea or even a good team. Great people who undertsand the moment and can take bets based on educated intuition is as good as it gets. The "managing risk" elements are basically a poor reaction from conservative LP's and GPs to the bubble bursting c2000. This is Private Equity, not Venture capital. Sarah is dead on....
I think I am the only one to comment here. But...
"can’t seem to decide if it’s about messaging or social sharing"
This seems to me more about you. You can't imagine that messaging and social-sharing are elements of the same human characteristic - to communicate. just.me is about you communicating - either to the world, or to specific individuals or groups. No need to separate those into 2 apps. Once can do both...
4 months, 1 week ago on The subversive selfie
Thanks Hamish, Well written and balanced. I would say though that I do not agree that just.me's best hope is to be acquired. My personal opinion - and at Archimedes Labs we see a lot of companies - is that 250k unique users and high retention and engagement is a very large number for the first 90 days of any company. I am amazingly bullish about just.me's chances of getting big fast now that we have all 3 platforms in play.
That said, I do think that mobile social features will find their way into the operating systems, but that process will take quite a while. Certainly long enough for just.me to get a lot bigger than it is today.
4 months, 4 weeks ago on Just.me tops up funding, launches on Android in fight for relevance in messaging
As always, very thoughtful Hamish. Great reading.
7 months, 3 weeks ago on Just.me goes “global first”: A Silicon Valley startup that looks beyond the US
Thank You for the thoughtful piece Hamish. Especially this bit:
"Just.me is one of the first social communications product that looks like it has been built for 2013. It is borderless, so non-users can access the messages too (they just won’t be able to save them or publish their own). It’s designed around the smartphone while being accessible on the open Web and is HTML5-friendly. Importantly, it also puts privacy controls squarely, and unambiguously, in your hands."
But you also ask some good questions:
"There is also some muddle of mission. Is it an email app or a chat app? A social network, or a rich-media-enabled address book? Teare calls it a publishing tool. That’s fine, but the world already has an abundance of publishing tools: Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Google+, to name the most obvious. There’s no guarantee that consumers will be willing to embrace yet another, let alone replace the ones they’re already using. And Lord knows we already have too many apps."
My own thinking evolves on this. My strong belief is that on mobile, messaging IS social. And that the connected web of smartphones IS a social network. Its called the human race and communication is the expression of our socialness. So to that extent just.me is embracing the most social behavior on earth and trying to upgrade and extend it. Chat, Email, SMS, and public posts are all features of what we as humans do, and the phone is the best so far to do it. I hope just.me is the best tool on the best device for what we already do.
10 months, 2 weeks ago on Just.me launches in beta. Is this what Facebook would have looked like if it were built for mobile?
Path is a beautiful mess. Well designed but with no purpose anybody needs.
1 year ago on For me, Instagram isn’t the new Twitter. It’s a more functional Path
@eringriffith Something bigger....Apple has revenue from phones and software, so doesn't need ads. Facebook is a social sharing platform, largely cloud based. It isn't optimized for mobile use, rather for desktop use. Apple has most of the things a user needs to be social from the phone - address book, message creation and sending, photo taking and sharing, video taking and sharing. It is even bringing in FB and Twitter contacts into the address book with IOS6. One wonders where Facebook fits into an iPhone world. In the Android world Google plays a similar role. Facebook could literally implode without a strategy for domination of the mobile user experience when it comes to social. Ad revenue would be the least of their problems. Relevance precedes monetization as an issue.
1 year, 4 months ago on Facebook Needs New Revenue Streams, Fast
This is a really good piece Erin. And brave ahead of the call today. I think that the shift of traffic to mobile underlays all of the problems here. Google too is suffering. If Facebook can figure out mobile revenue and ensure that is, and not Apple or Google, is the social platform of choice for Android and iPhone users, it wins. If not it is toast. It is a zero sum game. And timing isn't good. They have to do it now. Of course Google, even though it has Android, it itself challenged to monetize mobile as desktop traffic shrinks as a proportion of the total mix. Despite their protests to the contrary, this is a big issue for them. Apple is definitely best placed.
" A bigger question, however, is whether Americans will one day take to a mobile platform that offers an all-in-one solution, or if they prefer to stick to a more fragmented ecosystem, where they use devices’ proprietary apps for messaging, Facebook for social, and Instagram for photo sharing."
A great question Hamish. I wonder... Hmmmm :-)
1 year, 5 months ago on What Does This Korean Messaging App Think It’s Doing With More US Users Than Path?
Congrats guys. Nice timing.
1 year, 6 months ago on PandoDaily’s First Ebook Is Out Now! Your Definitive Guide to Facebook’s IPO
Totally agree Sarah, good piece
1 year, 7 months ago on Roger McNamee: Why the Instagram Deal Was Way More Important Than an IPO Schedule
@hamishmckenzie Keith at Teare dot com
1 year, 7 months ago on Instagram’s Windfall Proves Path’s Worth
For insight into just.me see here - http://pandodaily.com/2012/03/12/techcrunchs-other-founder-previews-just-me-a-privacy-focused-social-network/. Awesome piece (although I don't think we are privacy focused, more control focused). I'd be happy to give you a pre-launch sneak preview any time. I agree with many of your assumptions in this piece.