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Hi Hamish... congrats on the new PandoDaily gig -- good to see an ex-HK-expatriate contributing to the tech startup community worldwide.
I think you might be over-estimating the penetration and potential of Q Pai and MoTu as they are relatively little used compared to the dominant apps Camera360 and Meitu Xiuxiu. These apps are built to share to existing platforms like Weibo and QZone and aren't strictly photo-sharing apps per se but have become almost default behavior for China's photo-sharers rather than a completely enclosed network like Instagram. However, this is partially likely because they wouldn't want the additional headache of "content monitoring" and bandwidth costs associated with running a photo-sharing network. Also, unlike Instagram, these two apps do nice business selling additional filters and add-ons or have created a community contributing user-generated add-ons, something that Instagram and other Western photo-sharing apps have neglected to do.
Incidentally, one new competitor that you might want to consider is Sina Weibo itself which just launched a photo-filter addition to their Sina Weibo mobile app this week providing many of the same features already included in Camera360/Meitu Xiuxiu.
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