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These numbers do tend to support the eye test (I thought Riley Nash played a great game), and they make me feel a bit better about things. The second and third lines were the ones we were worried about, and they played great. Yeah, the first line struggled, but we have history saying they'll figure things out. If the second and third can keep up their strong play (especially when Ruutu comes back) and the first can come on, Carolina should be in the mix.
1 year, 2 months ago on Game 1 By the Numbers: Red Wings at Hurricanes
So seven teams have a shot of finishing in the top four, and you project five teams in the playoffs and one on the bubble (which will be on the wrong side of the bubble if the other five are in the playoffs). Tough division.
1 year, 2 months ago on Metropolitan Division Preview & Predictions
How do Skinner and Gerbe do on their off-wing? If there's minimal dropoff, I'd rather have Gerbe slide into the top six as an injury replacement than Dwyer do it. Although, to be fair, Dwyer did fine there last year in the very short term. It was when he was up for several games in a row that trouble started.
1 year, 2 months ago on Who will be the final 23?
So from the midpoint of the second period to the midpoint of the third period, scoring chances were 8-6 Carolina, 4-5 at even strength. The rest of the game, it was 15-4 Toronto, 12-2 at even strength. That's definitely the game I watched and definitely the team I've watched for the last two weeks. 20 minutes of strong hockey, 40 minutes of bad hockey. Only difference from game to game is when the 20 minutes happens.
1 year, 8 months ago on Game 32 by the Numbers: Hurricanes at Maple Leafs
@AgainstCorey The others are a lot harder. If I had to guess, I'd say A is Bowman, B is Wallace, C is LaRose, and E is Jokinen. That seems to fit most of my impressions just from watching games. The thing that makes me reticent is that A has a much better chance/60 rate than ES chance/60 rate, which I'd think indicates power play time, which I'd think indicates Not Bowman.
1 year, 9 months ago on Filling the void on the second line
So D is better at pretty much every single metric? Yeah, this looks like an obvious choice.
Assuming the "D" is for "Dwyer"
@AgainstCorey You're in luck, I have logic homework I don't want to do, and I can go through your scoring chance lists and count 5v5 chances. Going through all the games sounds like probably too much procrastination, but I can do the last four (forgive me if I made an oversight somewhere--I was obviously doing this quickly).
5v5 chances vs Pittsburgh
up two: 1-3
up one: 1-0
down one: 1-0
5v5 chances vs Florida (home)
up two: 4-0
5v5 chances vs Florida (away)
up two: 4-4
5v5 chances vs Buffalo
up two: 1-10
up one: 8-7
up two: 10-17
up one: 11-7
(FWIW, this matches my memory pretty closely. Played poorly in Sunrise until we got the first goal. Played well against Buffalo when we weren't up two)
1 year, 9 months ago on The Anatomy of a Streak
Do you have "close" scoring chance numbers? I know we had three goal leads in three of the last four (and three two-goal leads in the fourth)
What is the answer on the third line? All three of those guys seem to be competent third-line players, but they can't seem to get it together. With Ruu not coming back any time soon, what shakeups are available? We don't want to disturb the top six, which has been great. Promote Nodl and put LaRose on the 4th?
1 year, 10 months ago on Game 11 Scoring Chances: Hurricanes at Islanders
I was saying for all of the second and third periods that I hoped Boston didn't get sent to the box because I thought we had something going in 5on5 and had no idea how to handle their aggressive penalty kill. Especially not with our second unit. LaRose, Jussi, Sangs, and Corvo out on the power play together just doesn't inspire confidence (as I recall, they're the ones who spent the first power play in their own zone trying--and failing--to kill off a penalty). We have to learn how to handle a team that kills penalties aggressively.
And I sure hope Faulk doesn't get hurt again if this is the result. Dayum. I'm confident that, barring injuries to a couple key players, we'll figure things out. But it's a shortened season, and that needs to happen sooner rather than later.
Also, I'm blaming the inconsistent energy on the Canes shifting last season's intro song ("Noise" by Chris Hendricks Band) to first intermission (and replacing it with something uninspiring). No wonder we don't show up until the second period.
1 year, 10 months ago on Bad third period dooms Carolina, drop 5-3 decision to Bruins
I tend to think that LaRose-Sutter-Bowman has potential to be exactly what we need in a third line. Obviously, it's a question how he'll sustain things in his second season, but he showed a lot this year.
2 years, 8 months ago on Drayson Bowman 2011-12 Scoring Chances | Scoring Chances
Either I'm completely misreading your graph, or you have the blue and green lines mislabeled.
2 years, 8 months ago on Bryan Allen Scoring Chances 2011-12 | Scoring Chances
Tend to agree with your projected lineup for next year. With as much youth as we have, I wonder if we use anybody as trade bait in an attempt to shore up the forward lines. This would also free up room for signing a defensive defensemen to a longer-term contract
2 years, 8 months ago on Carolina's youth movement on the blue-line | Articles/News
@AgainstCorey Well, I only looked back to February, where he was at 42% (instead of just under 41%) and was being very slightly out chanced, so you're probably right when you have the perspective of the whole season.
On an unrelated note, do you know why your blog shows a post as having 0 comments until you click on it, at which point the comments appear?
2 years, 8 months ago on Carolina Hurricanes Scoring Chances Through March | Scoring Chances
Dwyer continues to be astounding on defense. Giving up the fewest chances with the second most defensive zone starts? Well done, sir.
Bowman's future is looking bright.
It looks like Allen is starting slightly more shifts in his defensive zone. Is that enough to explain the slight increase in scoring chances allowed?
I have the same concern about Tlusty's personal shooting rate (and the team's when he's on the ice) coming back to earth. But he's also young, and if the team projects him as a top six, keeping him up there with Staal and [please big FA signing] may still be a good idea.
2 years, 8 months ago on Eric Staal's linemates | Statistical Analysis
Good stuff. Although I wouldn't say the Canes are going to need to fill some other holes in their forward corps FIRST. I'd more say that in filling other holes in the forward corps, the Canes have improved their 4th line, because Tlusty and LaRose get bumped down to third, and Dwyer and Nodl get bumped to 4th (and they'd be a terrific shutdown pairing). And Stewart goes away.
I'm not so sure that it matters that much whether the defensive line is the third or the fourth though. You say that Dwyer and Nodl don't have the offense to be top nine, but if the third line is the shutdown line, then that's exactly the role they're most suited for. You'd just have to counter with a little more offensive prowess on the 4th line.
Also, Bowman looks like he's found his home on the 3rd line, which means we really only need one top six addition to get a 3rd line of Bowman--Sutter--LaRose and a 4th line of Nodl--Brent--Dwyer. Which would be a terrific bottom six. Now that'd still leave Tlusty overslotted, but I think he can grow into a legit top six role. If he does, it'll be amazing what one top six addition would do to the whole team.
2 years, 8 months ago on Improving the fourth line | Articles/News
The first thing I notice here is that the two segments with the highest shot % have two of the three lowest shot rates. On the other hand, the segment with the lowest shot % has far and away the highest shot rate. Is there anything to be read into this regarding shot quality? Basically, does it mean he was forcing bad shots in segment two?
2 years, 8 months ago on Eric Staal and shooting percentage | Statistical Analysis
Was just talking to my seat buddy at the game last night about how Dwyer is one of my favorite players on the team because he's so valuable as a penalty-killer and defensive forward in general. Nice to know I was on to something. It'd be interesting to see who would walk to add some defensive prowess to the front line, since the only free agents this summer are young guys who you'd expect to see re-upped. Looks like there's more room to make moves on the blue line, although I have no idea who's out there.
2 years, 9 months ago on Carolina's defensive problems | Statistical Analysis