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I also find it hard to believe AU was as focused as they needed to be this week in practice. Who knows if that's the case or not or how many points its worth. We'll find out tomorrow. Should be a good game.
Sorry for the long posts - had to put keys to page somewhere. Thanks.
4 days, 5 hours ago on SEC Championship Game Preview – 12/6/13
Predicting scores is a crap shoot as evidenced by the
variance of results against those 5 common opponents.Statistically speaking, I’d say it’s pretty close to a
toss-up.Nonetheless, averaging out the
score results without weighting would give a prediction of:
Doing a more in-depth analysis of what I would expect the running/passing success of each team to be and play selection based on that and their previous patterns, I produced the following estimate of what a box score for this game might look like:
30, Auburn 25
Rushing:Auburn 54 for 287, 1 Fumble; Missouri 42 for 203, 0 Fumbles
Passing:Auburn 20 Attempts for 142, 1 Int.; Missouri 33 Attempts for 257, 1 Int.
Of course, there's pretty much zero chance it'd actually come out like that but, for me, it's interesting to look at the numbers. Anyway, turnovers are probably the most impactful factor.If Auburn keeps the turnovers even, I'd say it’s a
toss-up.If Missouri is +1 in turnovers
as would be most probable, the +5 is probably closer as turnovers are worth, on average about a touchdown each.
Good analysis. I appreciate that you concentrate more on SEC games as opposed to comparing statistics from all games. When one throws in results from non-conference games, most of which are $$ games against inferior opponents, the statistics can get quite skewed. I independently researched some stats from only the 5 games each with common opponents. If you'll humor me, I'll offer those here (AU/MU first - opponent second):
Average Rush Yards Per Game:Auburn 346-148; Missouri 241-137
Average Fumbles Lost Per Game:Auburn 1-0.2; Missouri 0.2-0.8
Average Yards Per Rush: Auburn 6.5-4.0; Missouri
Average Rush Plays Per Fumble:Auburn 54-185; Missouri 214-40
Average Pass Yards Per Game:Auburn 155-327; Missouri 223-259
Average Interceptions Thrown Per Game:Auburn 0.2-1.2; Missouri 0.2-1.2
Average Yards Per Pass Attempt:Auburn 8.1-7.9; Missouri 7.9-6.1
Average Pass Plays Per Interception:Auburn 95-35; Missouri 142-35
Total Yards Per Game:Auburn 501-475; Missouri 464-396
Turnovers Per Game:Auburn 1.2-1.4; Missouri 0.4-2.0
Average Yard Per Play:Auburn 6.9-6.0; Missouri 6.5-5.3
Average Plays Per Turnover:Auburn 61-56; Missouri 178-37
Plays Per Game:Auburn 73-79; Missouri 71-74
Play Selection, Rushing:Auburn 74%; Missouri 60%
Percent Scoring by Quarter:Auburn 37-18-18-26; Missouri 17-38-21-25
"VU has no track record of high achievement on the gridiron." Depends on your definition of high achievement, I guess. They do have more undefeated seasons and conference championships than many SEC teams but it was a 100 years ago and few remember or care.
I'm close enough I wouldn't mind going to their games occasionally but they're too hard to like with all the UT hatred.
3 months, 3 weeks ago on Lack Of “Sidewalk Alums” Hurts Vandy At The Ticket Office
So, if memory serves me correct, then out of 4 Heisman runner-ups, Tennessee players have lost to the last Ivy Leaguer, a player from a losing team, and a defensive player. It'll be interesting to see who they come up with next time ;)
4 months, 1 week ago on SEC Headlines 8/3/2013
According to another story I read, he also discussed renaming the divisions. Reportedly, he said "If [the divisions] are not geographic, we are not going to have geographic names." I just don't see why that would be a problem for a soon-to-be 14 team conference that calls itself the Big Ten.
11 months ago on Big Ten Commissioner Talks Conference Expansion
One last? point: Perhaps, Wade and Thomas could share one spot (half a face to each). The collective back-to-back run of Wade and Thomas was on par with the Bryant era: 5 NCs, 81% (v. 82% for Bryant) wins in 23? (v. 25) years.
11 months ago on Time To Add Saban’s Face To The SEC’s Mt. Rushmore
I'm a fan of history but unfortunately most fans aren't (as you can see by your number of responses). I appreciate your respect for Neyland. He is underappreciated even at Tennessee (but then most people just count total wins). Neylands record matches or exceeds Bryant's in everything except longetivity and density of championships. As you pointed out, he could've coached many more games but for his service to our country. As to the density of championships, he was coaching against the likes of McGugin, Wade, Thomas, Bryant, and Vaught. Still, in addition to having not been beaten by Bryant, he had winning records against every one of those great coaches.
I would go all the way back. I consider the SIAA as SEC v.1 and the Southern as SEC v.2. The core SEC teams dominated those conferences. The better teams SECeded from the SIAA to form the Southern and then SECeded again from the Southern to form the SEC. McGugin and Wade (if you remove the year limit) and Thomas are the other 3 that deserve mention IMO.
You'll have to hope Oklahoma St. isn't sucked into the SEC by then, lest his OSU record brings his conference percentage down ;)
Unless I misundersand your criteria, Frank Thomas should also make the first cut.
"As you know by now, the Commodores’ win in the Music City Bowl secured the program its best season since way back in 1915."
I'm not sure where this information comes from but it's way off. The 1922 Southern Conference champs were 8-0-1. I think we can safely say they had a better season. Most wins - yes. Best team - not by a long shot. 17 Vandy teams since 1915 (most in the 20 years or so immediately thereafter) have had a better winning percentage. 30 teams since then had less losses (4 teams undefeated (though 2 were in the war years), 5 with one loss, 9 with 2 losses and 12 with 3 losses).
11 months, 1 week ago on SEC Bowl Observations: VU, LSU, MSU, USC, And UGA
"Already, some are saying WKU will win football games but lose its soul by hiring Petrino. (Actually, I think a few ministers out there might point out that the soul in better shape is the one that offers forgiveness to someone else’s.)"
Please understand that just because I wouldn't entrust someone with particular responsibilities because of past failures, that doesn't mean I wouldn't forgive them.
1 year ago on Nightmare Scenario For UK: Petrino Hired By WKU And Will Open Against New Wildcat Coach
@TigerinMO Tennessee's played the same 4 as MO. FL also gets FSU. Apparently the author of that article didn't do any schedule checking.
1 year ago on SEC Headlines 11/13/2012
Arkansas (3-5) with Tulsa, at S. Carolina, at Miss. State, LSU is a bowl contender yet Tennessee (3-5) with Troy, Missouri, at Vanderbilt, Kentucky is not? Extremely poor logic. They're both bowl contending. Unless there's something I'm missing, I assume they each would need to get to 6-6 to make a bowl. With those schedules, it's more likely for TN to go 3-1 or better in their remaining games than Arkansas. If you want to argue that TN could lose out in the SEC and finish in the "basement", sure they can. But your standard is stated as "what we believe each squad’s ceiling to be". I assume that means you believe it's highly unlikely they'll do better than 2-2. While I could see it happening, I certainly wouldn't consider it highly unlikely and particulary when compared to Arkansas' chances.
1 year, 1 month ago on MrSEC.com Power Rankings - 10/30/12
Yeah, but being the best of 4 is more satisfying than being the best of 2 and there'll be less squawking.
1 year, 1 month ago on SEC Still Has Five Teams In BCS Top Eight; No League At More Risk With Move To Playoff
I'm not sure I get the logic of the Georgia, Florida, SC order. FL beat SC by a lot. SC beat GA by a lot. GA beat FL by a little. Seems to me that should favor Florida. Coincidentally, that's the way the computers have Florida on top despite not factoring point spread. The humans have Georgia highest.
@John at MrSEC @CowbellCruiser
I actually think people are undervaluing Ole Miss. They are still seen largely as a basement team that has risen only because of others' descendancy. I may be wrong but I think Miss will give Georgia all they want. I believe Arkansas has been playing better as of late but that was masked by an Ole Miss team that is better than they are giiven credit for by most. Time will tell.
1 year, 1 month ago on SEC Game Roundup: Hot Seat Coaches Lose, Richt Wins A Big One, Bama Rolls On
Petrino as the cure for the worst defense in Tennessee history? Yeah, right. I don't think even his offense could keep up with the yards TN's defense is giving up.. Not to mention a little baggage. If Hart's that stupid, he should've been fired yesterday.
1 year, 1 month ago on What We're Hearing About Those SEC Coaching Jobs
Here's another way to look at turnovers. If you look at only games where teams have an equal number of turnovers, you can calculate the average number of yards per point (14.5 in SEC v. SEC games so far this year). Then, you compare games with unequal turnovers and look at the difference in average yards/point. From that, you can calculate what the average turnover costs in yards (82) or points (6).
When offenses are credited for yards or defenses for yards not allowed, turnovers are not normally considered though they should be. Consider Tennessee's pass game v. Alabama's in SEC on SEC games:
SEC #7) AL 218 ypg, 0 interceptions/game
#8) TN 213 ypg, 2 interceptions/game
If you deduct the average yards per turnover:
#2) AL: 218 ypg
#12) TN: 49 ypg
Contrast rush yards:
#1) AL 236, 1 fumbles*/game (*not sure if these are all fumbles on rushing plays)
#2) TN 206, 0.5 fumbles*/game
#1) TN 165 yds/game
#2) AL 155
BTW, did you know that Tennessee leads the SEC in yards/rush in SEC v. SEC games:
#1) TN: 5.7
#2) AL: 5.5
1 year, 1 month ago on MrSEC.com Stat Analysis: Butterfingers And Bandits 10/25/12