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Theory #2 is a plot hole when you think about it... If you go back to Series 4 when the Doctor met Capaldi at Pompeii, he was yet to travel to Trenzalore. It wasn't until the Time of the Doctor that the Doctor actually erased the events of Trenzalore from happening, meaning that there was no 12th Doctor in existence back in Series 4 as he was always meant to die at Trenzalore... There's no getting past it, we even saw his grave there!
11 months, 4 weeks ago on Some Theories on Capaldi’s Familiar Face