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7 months ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs
Nate, did you mean dhb was negative 26.2? If so, that is truly amazing. Do you happen to know the worst Dvoa all time for a WR ?
Does this analysis on Cherilus hold true for many of the other games, or just this one? Curious as I believe he is our most expensive lineman?
8 months ago on CA Charting Project: Charting the Colts' Offensive Line, Week 11
@Nate Dunlevy @DougEngland Do players that were with multiple teams still "choose" which team they go into the Hall of Fame representing? Or does that not happen at all? The one thing that would kill me is Irsay ticking him off to the point of entering the HOF as a Bronco. Arghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh....
9 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Broncos
When the Colts hired Pep, I read a lot of great things about him, and how he would be a head coach in just a few years. Well, he won't be if he sticks to his guns. Instead, he might need to morph his offensive strategy. My question is, how many OCs have adapted and changed away from their core approach? If you look at innovators, like Bill Walsh, for instance, did he "morph" away from a running background and come up with that himself? Wondered how many examples there are of OCs that have changed versus tweaking their "training" that came from early years. Lots of the west coast offense guys came from west coast lineages. Wondered how many people have truly adapted and changed to fit the need and whether or not, based on that, we would expect Pep to be able to change direction.
9 months, 1 week ago on Seifert: Let Luck Loose, Already
You know, that's an interesting analogy to the 2003 Brady. And if the Colts get the squad to allow Luck to pass more without being sacked 60 times a year, he could later be the Brady that broke Peyton's TD/year record. I hope the coaching staff is an malleable as Belichick's was (gasp, choke, said his name....) and can flex this offense over time to fit the overall pieces. But, I have a feeling Chuck is going to be #Runstrong his whole tenure regardless.
9 months, 3 weeks ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Jaguars
@GregC Blaine's World! Excellent! Party Time! That was awesome. Thanks for posting.
10 months ago on Breaking down the Colts' Big Win at San Fransciso and Previewing Colts at Jaguars Week 3 with Colts Authority Radio, Live at 8pm ET
@Colt_Following OK. I'll come out of the darkness, quit being a vampire, and live in the sunshine of the victory... Good point about franchise QB's and them not usually leaving over offensive scheme... It was indeed fun yesterday to see them stuff someone like that defensively...
10 months ago on Eyes in the Backfield: 49ers
As for Luck's legacy being reduced by our perception of where things are headed - that depends on one thing - that Luck actually wants to stay past his rookie contract. I guess they could tag him and prolong it, but eventually, if he wanted out, he could do it. If he was going to become the next Aikman, maybe you stay to win 3 rings like Troy did. But if you don't see that in the club's future, I'd say you make like Peyton and choose the team that has the best overall prospects. I hope the fear of a still young Luck leaving due to displeasure with the direction of the club would shock the FO into some sort of change. Perhaps in that manner, there is a check and balance in the future.
It is insane that I actually think about this as much as I do!
You have now officially convinced me of my fear that last year was solely a product of Arians, not Chuck. How Irsay buys that running theory, though, after a decade plus of Peyton is even more confusing.
@hankster @Nate Dunlevy Going back to Pagano's hiring, he talked about running and stopping the run. Of course, Grigson seems to support that, as does Hamilton. Has anyone ever seen an interview of any type with Pagano or Grigson (from last year or this year) where a question of the following nature is asked: "Given that most successful teams in the NFL today are good at passing, and rushing the passer, why would you favor 'run and stop the run' as your strategy?" I don't recall ever hearing this. I've seen them talk about running, but I've never heard any media member ask why you would build on that principle. I'd love to know if a) they think run/stop run is indeed a viable strategy still, even with acknowledged understanding that it is a passing league, or b) they don't buy into the concept that pass/stop pass is the modern NFL. I'm honestly baffled that they wouldn't know the same statistics that people like Nate have put up over the years that clearly show this trend. I'd like to get some insight as to what they are thinking with this approach. Maybe I'm just trying to convince myself that this running thing can work!!!
Nate, this is really fun. How many "Worst" categories can you expand into? Certainly, there are opportunities for Worst Coaching Moment each week. But, for sure we need a category for Mark Sanchez and his hair barette, or whatever that thing is in his hair. It's freaking me out!
10 months, 1 week ago on The Worst of Week One
@zgs1288 I was at the Jax game where he laid on the field motionless for 5 minutes or so. I was honestly afraid he was dead (as were many of us) and yet some idiot Jaguar fan behind me kept yelling "Yeah! That's how we roll in Jacksonville!"
1 year, 5 months ago on Then and Now: Colts Part Ways with Freeney and Collie
"Should have chosen 'D.' " The Rosencopter memory is an awesome one. Thanks for putting up that link!
@mshah9008 We might take a step down next year just due to schedule strength, assuming it isn't as easy as this year's schedule. That won't bother me too much.
With regard to the WC offense Pep will bring in - aren't there wide variations in the WC approach? I think Green Bay would be regarded as running a variant of the WC. They have a tremendous receiving corp and certainly don't just dink and dunk it. The original WC offense of Walsh had Jerry Rice and they didn't rely solely on short passes. So, I hope that the overall abilities of our squad will result in Pep giving us a WC variation that incorporates some of the higher efficiency passing, as well as preserving a less frequent vertical approach.
Can't wait to see!!
1 year, 6 months ago on Colts Monday Musings: Did the Cardinals do the Colts a Favor?
Scary game, this one. I hope Luck can still walk when it is over and doesn't have Clay Matthews jersey number imprinted onto his chest. Packers D isn't great, but the interior OL potential of Link-Shipley-McGlynn is scary.
And I DO think Freeney is dogging it.
1 year, 9 months ago on Eyes in the Backfield-Packers | October
What's your opinion on the long-term impact of multiple sacks per game on Luck's development? Lots of people would attribute David Carr's stunted growth to the beating he took early in his career. I'm not talking about the physical effect of all those sacks as much as the mental. Hoping Luck is pretty tough. I'll be watching the "rotting interior" this weekend to see if they've gotten any better.
1 year, 10 months ago on Eyes in the Backfield-Vikings | September
@pierrezombie @DougEngland I was thinking about the same - it's better than what we had. When they brought in Justice, they re-did his contract and took him down to about $1MM a year if I recall correctly. If that's right, Grigson knows that's about all he is worth, and didn't over value him. That figure is not too bad. i'm guessing that they didn't have the cap room to get a proven FA. That would cost significantly more than what they are paying Justice. Once the cap room frees up after this year, I would hope they get a couple of decent FAs on the line. They'll be able to pay then, and the draft slots maybe go to defense instead.
1 year, 10 months ago on Regular Season Week 1, Quick Recap: Colts 21 at Bears 41 | September
I like your analysis tool, Kyle. Statistics aren't the perfect way to evaluate things, but they take the emotion out of it, at least. Jaws and most other analysts seem to have an emotional attachment or two to certain players. I can't figure out how Rivers was that high in his ranking. He blew chunks last year. And I agree - nobody wants to place Stafford in that upper group, but if he is healthy, he is the real deal. Flacco is another guy the analysts want to love no matter what he does. Hey, just like the QBR was an improvement over passer rating, maybe the TURD will gain some love...
2 years ago on The Ultimate Statistical Quarterback Ranking | July
@SpencerFGray Oh, yeah, and if the Colts aren't on TV, fans will watch Peyton every week instead. That would just be ducky...
2 years ago on The Colts will Teach you for not Buying Season Tickets | July
@SpencerFGray Seems like bungled PR. It would be a disaster if NONE of the home games sold out and the local fanbase didn't get to see any of the games this year (would the local channels carry away games?). Fans need to see the new players. There should be better explanations coming from the PR dept.
@BlueAndWhite17 I read it, as well as Colts Authority, Bleacher Report, and anything else I can read about the Colts. There is some good stuff on there sometimes - a point I think Nate once mentioned with regard to the quality of some of their pre-draft analyses. The incessant whine about fickle fans and Polian does get old, but if that is the point of the article, I just skip it. But, I don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. And, in the latest article, buried amongst the ranting, is a good point about blackouts - they do hurt the Colts in generating interest for the new product. So, I like reading all the blogs and reports and considering them together.
2 years ago on Are you Buying what the Colts are Selling? | July
@coltsauth_todd So, when all is said and done, we could probably boil down the Polians' problem to one area (even though there was more than one) - they let the secondary get really bad. Over the last 3 years, that's what let the Colts PDR rise steadily. Stating the obvious, I suppose, but I guess it is as simple as that.
2 years, 3 months ago on GM Boot camp lesson 4 | Articles
@coltsauth_todd Well, I realize now I was looking at the 2010 data when I made my comment. I got the 2011 from NFL.com and it made more sense. There are a lot of ways to look at that data. I wonder if something more complex could be built than just the PDR. May have to play with that concept... One thing is for sure - the Ravens D always does well in defensive pass rating. All you would need is an offensive passer rating of 90 with their D and you would be in the same realm as New Orleans, New England etc, when it comes to PDR. I won't mind if Pagano gets the D into the 60s for def pass rating. Won't need an offensive rating of 120 then... Yeah, I know the PDR isn't causal. But fun to think what it could look like.
Todd, the pdr makes sense and I get the point about the passing game, on both sides, winning games. But, I'm a bit confused how GB and NY have passing defenses rated as low as you say, yet can have defensive passer ratings in the 60s (I read the chff article). Shouldn't the two be correlated?
@Sinn0331 @pierrezombie @kasey_junk I would agree with that. In three years, the best QB available might have been someone like Tannehill this year, who would be #3 QB this year, but a large dropoff from Luck/RGIII. Combination of circumstances led to this, and agree with the previous statment that Irsay is playing longball. Hope it works for both Colts and Broncos
2 years, 4 months ago on Did Irsay pull the chute too soon? | Articles
Well, Peyton said in the interview yesterday that he still wasn't where he wanted to be physically. He thinks he can get there, and so do the Broncos. But it certainly confirms that Irsay had to "pull the chute" during a time where even Manning knew he wasn't back all the way. There can be no right decision for Irsay in that scenario. You either guess that Peyton comes back and plays the way he used to, or you guess that Andrew Luck will be the next Peyton Manning. But, to be fair - it's a guess either way. And I doubt PM has 5 years left in him, regardless of what the Broncos think. Maybe 3 good years and 2 mediocre years. The number of 41 year old QBs that played at a high level could easily be researched, and I think we would find that there really weren't any. Favre had one good season above 38 (that first year with Vikings), but the other two (second with Vikes, other with Jets) were certainly not HOF-worthy. Warren Moon wasn't lighting it up in his 40s, although he was playing. I don't see this being a 5 year comparison with Luck. Three max.
I think the question is do we like Peyton so much that his being on a team could overcome your dislike for the team? For me, I could watch and root for him on a lot of teams. Just not San Fran or New England. If it were new England, I think I would actively root against him.
2 years, 4 months ago on The unstoppable force meets the immovable object | Articles
In addition to buying my new jersey, I had planned on buying a jersey from PMs new team too. I'm originally from Tennessee, so the Titans would work for me. Denver - well, they're unoffensive, so I would gladly wear a Broncos Manning jersey. Miami and Arizona - those are fine too. But the 49ers??!! I nearly vomited when I heard he met with them. I've hated the 49'ers ever since "The Catch" since I grew up with the Cowboys as my childhood team. I honestly don't think I could wear a San Fran jersey, even with MANNING on the back. Here's to hoping Bud Adams doesn't seem as crazy to PM as he does to people like me....
2 years, 4 months ago on My new Peyton Manning jersey | Articles
@pierrezombie PZ - I've got one other thought on the rationale for the Polians departure, and your comment on Bill being a HOF'er reminded me of it. All great civilizations (Greece, Rome, Britain, etc.) eventually came to an end. We see this in the workplace as well as companies ascend and eventually descend. The cultures that escape that typically are very adept at both anticipating change and adapting to the new scenario.
I once read a funny comment that said Al Davis knew a ton about football - but unfortunately, his knowledge was contained to the football played in the 70s and 80s. I believe the premise was that he didn't adapt to the changes in pro football and continued to hold to older ideologies that were less effective in the present times. I worry about that for myself in business, and honestly, I worried about that for the Colts the past few years. You'd hear a lot of things about the Colts "doing what the Colts do." At some point, schemes need to change and players to fit those change. Small and fast (and economical fits to the Colts scheme) might be a concept that has come and gone as collision-based injuries rise with physical speed and strength increases (just as one example). I personally never felt the Colts FO would admit they might want to change. Along with my speculation theme for this thread, I speculate part of the decision to part with the Polians is that their approach might have passed several years ago, and PM just blinded everyone to this with his ability to transcend overall team capability. Maybe JI looked at that and thought this regime, while legendary, couldn't make the strategic shift to a new brand of football that might be necessary in the NFL in the post 2010 era. Bill IS 70+ years old. That doesn't mean he can't be a GM, but I bet his desire to change isn't very high...
Combine that with all the other stuff, and there you go. Ciao.
2 years, 4 months ago on Rams get 3 first rounders for 2nd pick | Articles
Following this purchase, I feel emboldened to buy a Reggie Wayne jersey. I may end up with a whole collection now...
You are probably correct about Chris, but if he was the next Bill Polian, I would be surprised that no interest was shown immediately.
So, I've read more about the contract - I will agree with you that it appears that Peyton gave the Colts a hometown discount. And, I agree that he had the leverage to put in that awful March 8th date that basically made him untradeable. Maybe what really is bothering me about the deal is something I haven't really wanted to say out loud because PM seemed to be the model player - but the "gift" deal - I mean, PM knew his neck was hosed when he offered it. And, I believe the FO knew his neck was hosed when they agreed to it. If everyone knew the risk was that high, why didn't the FO work on a friendlier contract that protected both parties against what has now happened? I suppose maybe they didn't know, but there wasn't that much time between the contract signing and the fusion surgery. I hate suggesting that about PM, but I keep thinking it. The financials of the deal, even if a "gift," led to one of two outcomes - cutting him with a $10MM cap hit anyway, or keeping him with a $35 MM hit. And in either scenario - no clue whether or not you're making the right choice. I suppose that's what I mean by a bad contract.
We will never know exactly what PM knew, what BP knew (and Chris, if that ever mattered), and what JI knew when that contract was conceived and signed. But I'm pretty sure they knew the neck wasn't healthy (even PM has stated that publicly) when they did it.
I hope PM can play at a high level again and I will watch with interest and root for him. I worry though, that his competitive nature doesn't allow him to see the situation with total clarity (for reference, the bizarre belief that he could actually play in week 17). I'm guessing he had the same lack of clarity in his vision when the deal was struck last August.
@pierrezombie Well, I don't think we'll ever know the true reason. But, since it is fun to speculate - i don't think it had anything to do with whether Bill wanted to either keep or release Peyton. I think it had more to do with the accumulation of many faults that couldn't be tolerated any longer given the outcome of the past season. I think the treatment of staff was one thing, but I still think that Chris Polian was ultimately Bill's undoing. It's interesting to me that Chris is still not employed, at least to my knowledge. He's not a GM somewhere. He's not a Director of Player Personnel. He's not a scout for a team. Meanwhile, his college friend, Telesco, was interviewed several places this year, and ultimately was rewarded by the Colts with the promotion to VP of football operations (still don't know what that means). So, Bill got his son made GM, but I think now we would see that other teams won't even touch him - that says something about capability. Meanwhile, the guy that came through the ranks with him, Telesco, is a bonafide GM candidate elsewhere and was ultimately rewarded. Chris was a bad move. He didn't make the team better. Bill is responsible for that, along with Irsay. But at least Irsay could make things right and get rid of Chris. Bill went along on that ride - they are a package family deal. That's my take. Didn't hurt that the front office made a really bad contract with Peyton that put the team in this position. They knew he wasn't healthy, hence the structure of the 1 year/4 year extension type contract - but did it anyway. The timing of the roster bonus for the 4 year part seemed absolutely abysmal - forced the move to happen when it did. Again, Irsay signed off on it, but he does pay his FO to get these things right. Eventually, accountability was had with the Polians.
Been thinking about that as well. I think it would have still been a race against time given all the issues the colts needed to fix. Rookies, even high draft picks, don't usually change the landscape that much in year one. I think the colts would have been 10-6 with good draft picks and healthy Peyton next year. They might not even get a wild card assuming Texas wins the south. 2013 might be a really good year in the "picks for Luck" scenario as the draft picks progress in their second year. Peyton would be 37 for that campaign and turning 38 after the super bowl, if they made it. That would be the end of the useful career, likely. So, trading the picks for Luck gets you a shot at one really good year, and then you are without Peyton and looking for your next QB. It sucks, but in my mind, trading one potential SB worthy season for the same qb rebuild two years later - might as well do it now and hope Luck has you competitive for 2014 through 2024.
2 years, 4 months ago on The Purge | March
@kc6624 If you read Kuharsky much on the ESPN AFC South blog, you'll note he has a theory that anytime the media stories are going "against" Peyton, Peyton shows up in some format or another to "reset the conversation." (check his Nov 3rd blog if you want to see what I'm referring to) Sometimes he does this himself. Sometimes, I think he uses his agent (as I suspect in the recent "medically cleared" story. Perhaps Polian is just another evolution in his ability to try and reset the conversation. I think the noodle arm / can't throw left conversation gained steam for a couple of days, and it needed to be "reset." Enter Bill with his comments. I don't think Bill knows any more about his condition than Grigson or Irsay. But, I'm sure there is some residual relationship between Bill and Peyton, and maybe Peyton is calling in some chips here. I'm sure the recently fired Polian wouldn't mind helping him out. ;) Pure conjecture on my part.
2 years, 5 months ago on Polian disputes Lombardi report | Articles
@Nate Dunlevy I keep recalling the report I've linked below where Addai said his short game was good enough to play in the NFL. And that was Dec. 21st. That's another report that is more on the side of Peyton is improving.
@The Walking Eye I was wondering the same thing - what are the responsibilities of the VP of Football Operations versus those of the GM?
2 years, 5 months ago on Tom Telesco promoted | Articles
I don't think we can believe much of anything we read anymore regarding his condition. I remember, back in late December, reading a story, supposedly from Joseph Addai, stating that in the 25-30 yard zone, Peyton was throwing "NFL ready" passes. Now we read things like "noodle arm" and 40% loss of strength. Nor do I believe Collie or White or Gonzalez would comment on his arm strength (not if they knew what was good for them).
2 years, 5 months ago on Lombardi: Manning can't throw left | Articles
Reading this, I would say the the firing of the Polians might have as much to do with the structure of this contract as it did their bad behavior and failure to have an adequate backup. The contract seems really bad in the sense that even if Manning is cut, the Colts STILL take a $10MM salary cap hit. So, no backup to Manning was in place, and, when faced with moving onward, you have to pay a hefty cap hit. I contrast that to how the article describes Favre's cap hit. If you believe Brandt, that was intentional (Favre's low dead money). Wish the Colts situation was more similar. Paul
2 years, 5 months ago on Brandt: Manning, the cap and cash | Articles