Tracy Boxer Zill
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@RBRtweets @auburnreality @BASportsGuy No way is Roaracle going to be "quiet." If you don't buy your tickets, others will. Mine are $12k for the season alone and if I don't reup at $14k for next year, there are dozens in line to take my seats.
5 months, 2 weeks ago on Warriors season ticket holders facing significant price increases
@Giants55 Disagree re: EVERYONE needing a good year. We need relative health and reasonable seasons from the SP (i.e. Bum pitches like an ace, Cain like a 2, Timmy and Huddy like 3s, and Vogey like a 5). As long as that happens we'll be fine. We'll see if the doyers can stay healthy as well. What if Greinke has a 2014 like Cain's 2013? What if their SP get hurt or are suddenly ineffective like ours last year? You think they won't be worse?
7 months ago on Grading Brian Sabean’s offseason
@Eric Another lunfringy whine. I guess we picked up Belt, Crawford, Sandoval in trades? And Posey was "a layup?" Four teams didn't think so, and passed on him. Fact is, Sabean DID draft him, he's a MVP, and you don't want to give credit for the pick. How many orgs have four of their starters homegrown and playing as well as Posey, Belt, Crawford, Sandoval?
Bottom line: were in the mix in the NL for the foreseeable future. Instead of whining like RedSoxfan whenever we DON'T win the WS, why not appreciate the fact that we're highly competative. Oh, wait, that'd be waaaaay to rational.
7 months, 1 week ago on Grading Brian Sabean’s offseason
@DAVIDM87 Yawn. Another lunatic fringy whine about a team that has a 150MM payroll being "cheap." Rinse, blather, repeat.
@RDyer @maxwell623 This is one of the most ridiculous takes I've read in quite a while. It echoes the drivel that Damon Bruce's callers come up with. Let's address your points in order:
1. 2014 is done if we don't get a front line LF -- horsecrap. We've got Pagan/Scutaro/Posey/Sandoval/Pence hitting 1-6 and Crawford hitting 8. That's 7/8 of our lineup with competent to very good hitters. We could easily get a platoon RHH to pair with Blanco in left and get decent production out of the 7 hole. If our 7 starters have average years, we'll score plenty of runs. We don't need to sign Choo or Ellsbury -- that would be $20MM plus a year spent on the 7 hole which would be stupid.
2. A rotation of Cain/Bum/Hudson/Lincecum/(Vogelsong or Petit) means we won't contend -- horsecrap again. Hudson and Lincecum are not "bottom of the rotation" starters. Taking his last three years, Hudson projects out to a 109 ERA+ and 2.1 WAR. That's a solid #3. For Timmy, you have to look at his last 20 starts as that's when he finally adjusted to the loss in velocity. We won't see Cy Timmy again, but to expect him to pitch like he did over the 40 starts in 2012-2013 before he adjusted is simply lazy analysis -- he's not that pitcher either. If you take his final 20 starts from this year, he projects out to a 105 ERA+ and 2.0 WAR. Again, a solid #3. For Cain, you cherry pick just this season, but if you take his last three seasons, he projects to 115 ERA+ and 3.0 WAR. That's a #2. I assume we can agree Madison is a #1.
In sum, we've got a #1, a #2, 2 #3s, and an opening. We might get Arroyo (he projects to a #3/#4. But if you look around the league, very few teams if any have a solid 1-5 rotation. The doyers certainly don't. If the top four pitch as projected, our rotation will be solid.
Lastly, your doom-and-gloom predictions are tired, and unsupported by any real analysis. For instance, you give oversimplified terse summations like "Cain has never been a #1 and regressed last season;" (2009-2012 all say "hello??"). You really need to have better grasp of the facts if you're going to have a serious blog. As it is, you seem like just another whiney lunatic fringer, ranting about "cheap Giants FO."
8 months ago on SF Giants On a Spending Spree? Not So Far
@RDyer @LoneStarGiantFan Again, you're obfuscating. They are going to up the payroll by at least $13MM this year. Probably more. In any event, how much they bring in from other ventures has nothing to do with the payroll. Those land deals that they are working on have nothing to do with payroll; it's merely another way for the owners to make money. It would be similar to the owners investing in a startup that did well -- they've no obligation to take profit from those sources and plow it into the Giants payroll. The fact remains that the Giants are top 5 in spending, which is PLENTY to filed a contending team. Averaging contracts over their life is just plain lazy; Cots gives you the breakdowns. The bottom line is this: they spent $137MM this year and will spend $150MM+ this year. That's not cheap. The "Giants don't spend enough money" meme is just tired; you need to come up with something better than that.
@LoneStarGiantFan Great post; Richard does exactly what he accuses the press of doing regarding Giants payroll -- he obfuscates. They spent $137MM in 2013. They've got $125.5 MM committed to 13 players already (Cain, Pence, Pagan, Scutaro, Affeldt, Sandoval, Casilla, Posey, Romo, Bumgarner, Lopez, Hudson, Lincecum). Adding in estimates for 6 arb eligible players: Mijares (2.1), Blanco (2.2), Arias (1.2), Belt (2.4), Abreu (0.7), Petit (1.3) brings us to $135.4. Then you've got 5 young players under their rookie contracts: Crawford (0.9), Sanchez (0.9), Dunning (0.5), Hembree (0.5), and Peguero (0.5) which totals 138.7MM. Add in 7.3 for Zito and Vogelsong's buyouts and you're at $146MM. That's with 24/25 roster spots filled. It seems pretty likely that we'll trade for a platoon LF during the winter meetings, so allow $4.0MM for that and we're at 150MM total for 2014.
Now, you can quibble with my choices for who makes the roster (Mijares and Abreu may not get offered arb; Dunning, Hembree, and Peguero might be Kontos, Machi and Perez; Petit might be Vogelsong) -- but I think I'm going to end up pretty close to the actual budget. We could easily exceed $150MM if we sign Arroyo or Haren, or trade for a starting LF.
We were sixth in payroll in 2013 -- we'll be in the top 8 again this year. This whole "Giants are cheap" meme has just got to stop.