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6 days, 7 hours ago on The Side Part: Week 24 – Fat lines
Advanced analytics also says substantial part of Russ' personal defensive rebounding is offset by a reduction in teammate rebounding. Not that surprising or weird but a new statement about my statistical wanderings in search of better understanding of basketball and / or the limitations to understanding basketball better. Ha.
To be honest I recently saw an advanced stat estimate that claims Russ has a modest helpful impact on opponent scoring. That doesn't fit with my eye test dubious view of his man to man defense. Maybe eyes deceive or eyes deceive when one judges too soon or based on inaccurate memory based accounting or maybe it fails to account for the impact of his offense on defense or his fierce attitude on team defense while he is on the court. Math does not express all that may be happening.
6 days, 8 hours ago on The Side Part: Week 24 – Fat lines
Thanks. Trying at least partially to be open minded. As it happens I could do that and put heat on those asserting a positive impact for him.
Advantages to being good looking and affable and maybe average or better on real qualifications compared to the competition.
Kerr is in the fortunate position to coach in NBA and if he fails he gets future yr pay from that and walks back to big money easy tv job on top of that.
There has been a fair amount of Perk defense in the media lately. I don't really mind it but I don't generally buy it either. But it leads me to say this:
If Perk is as bad as he is on both box score stats and adjusted plus minus then your defense of him has to challenge the findings of not just one (which is the common way to defend players) but rather you have to challenge both. Is there a way to challenge without it being just denial? There is one way- assert that Perk has positive impact on team when he is off the court AND that this positive impact is greater than his measured worse than average on the court as measured by box score and adjusted plus minus. The argument would have to be that the defense with him off the court is better because of the starting example he sets and / or the weak offense example the team sets with him on court prods the offense with him off the court to do a heck of a lot better (by necessity). I don't necessarily buy this but it is theoretically possible and logically necessary unless you intend to challenge the accuracy of both box score and APM metrics generally or for Perk specifically.
Biggest minute lineup with Adams and traditional starters sucked this yr. May be good or bad next yr.
6 days, 10 hours ago on The Side Part: Week 24 – Fat lines
Rockets waived Greg smith. I'd probably pick up, even just for next yr. Prob not playoff eligible now.
Could argue that sticking with traditional starting lineup even
in limited games might have made enough impact to cause this small but important shortfall.
Weakest offense on average.
Aimed at Howard but now applies to team management.
Which team do folks want to play in first round?
Not all superstars are great every playoffs. C Paul in 5 playoffs was great 3 times, average once and terrible once.
Prob never get much flack. Only baseball purists / traditional make a stink in defense of long gone greats.
6 days, 11 hours ago on The Side Part: Week 24 – Fat lines
Spurs really weak this yr against best teams. Shorthanded in some but so are others and spurs by far the worst on this among top contenders
Only won 54% of games against teams above average on pts scored per game. Most playoff teams will be in that group.
Importance of defense and maybe advanced stats- butler estimated as having 12th worst impact on opponent shooting. Adams 26th worst in league. Presti at one time employed 5 of the current worst 26 including Mullens and Maynor.
I recall computing that players above .200 on winshares per 48 minutes win a title about once per 10 such seasons. More frequently when you have 2 such guys. Durant and Westbrook and mgt still have a few years to meet or beat average but they might not.
6 days, 12 hours ago on The Side Part: Week 24 – Fat lines
Presti's media style is different on surface but maybe not that much underneath.
As usual when in smug jackass media mode.
Maybe not but if they don't win atitle that will go down as a major fault derailing his other virtues.
And in past playoffs Presti apparently has either been absent in telling him to, late or ineffective. Will this happen again for 3rd time in 4 years?
If they disappoint in playoffs this coaching / mgt rigid thinking is a top contender to be a main factor in that shortfall.
Before last nights game the traditional Thunder starting lineup was the 3rd worst in league used over 250 minutes. But it appears it will be most used in playoffs again despite its past playoff suckage.
By new ESPN real plus minus Westbrook is21st best pg defender amonst the top 40 and estimated slightly despite those steals and rebounds.
6 days, 13 hours ago on The Side Part: Week 24 – Fat lines
Westbrook did show more defensive intensity last night but IMO it is way inaccurate to say he "never quits on a play". In most games I've seen this year he almost quits on guarding his msn as soon as he gives up the ball. He steals the ball and rebound the ball but rarely gives help d. After his man passes or goes by him his most common next action is sit and wait for apass from the rebounder,even before the shot goes up or hits the rim. He can play good d and often does when they really need but it is far far from an everytime thing.
@d21 @L0rv http://bkref.com/tiny/Rc8Ex 5th best in this regular season
3 weeks, 1 day ago on Tuesday Bolts – 3.25.14
@L0rv in above post "was to judge..." should have been "other ways to judge"
@L0rv @Crowws/48 is not good for low minute guys but it is pretty fair for big minute guys
@L0rv @Crowper game? i was using per minute for level comparison
@sammasaaron @L0rvfirst playoffs was shortest (6 games) so second and third playoffs actually weigh heavier
@Crow @El Prezcan't do right now for timing and technical reasons but maybe another time
@L0rv @Crowi was using winshares per 48 minutes but yes there are was to judge or measure and the one choose for simplicity is not perfect.
@sammasaaron @L0rv@Crow2012-13 was his best individual reg.season This season 2nd best but barely better than year 2 &3.
@L0rv @Crow Westbrook best individual playoff performance was his first, against Fisher and it was rumored that the Lakes decided to contain Durant and let RW do his thing. Since that strong playoff performance every playoff has been weaker for him individually but better for team. Russ having a great playoffs could still help but the past is not giving a simple clear message that Russ doing more and / or doing great in the playoffs is necessary or the best path to team playoff success.
Throw out his first playoffs and the regular season to playoffs decline for Russ the individual would be greater.
@El Prez @CrowI'll think / check on that
@L0rv @Perk has a lot of value@Crowalso part of it
@Perk has a lot of value @Crowthose things may be part of it
@anonymous12345 @sammasaaron@d21 @blackhiiippy@Perk-Punt@TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeardthey probably give Monte at least part of next season
Popovich got too arrogant / cute with his loose D on LeBron for too long.
As much as people tout the Spurs culture and system, it has not won a title in 6 years, since the rules tilted in favor of offense and they tilted that way too but in a way that takes what the defense gives rather than taking what you would seem to really want (FTs, inside shots, 3s)..
@anonymous12345 @sammasaaron@d21 @blackhiiippy@Perk-Punt@TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeardNo Spurs front office personnel has won a title as head guy, yet.
@anonymous12345 @sammasaaron@d21 @blackhiiippy@Perk-Punt@TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard
No Popovich assistant coach has done well, yet.
I just put this is earlier thread in response to El Prez's questions. But I'll add it here cause few will be looking at the old game thread.
For playoffs career Westbrook gets about 20% less assists per
minute than regular season. Shoots a bit more often including from 3 pt.
land. Shoots and score a bit less efficiently. Gets to the line a bit
less frequently. Turns it over less. Steals a little less. Overall
rating is a little lower.
@El Prez @f5alcon For playoffs career Westbrook gets about 20% less assists per minute than regular season. Shoots a bit more often including from3 pt. land. Shoots and score a bit less efficiently. Gets to the line a bit less frequently. Turns it over less. Steals a little less. Overall rating is a little lower.
3 weeks, 1 day ago on Thunder dismantle the Nuggets, 117-96
saw this link at Alex's site.
do folks here know about it, like the podcast?
3 weeks, 2 days ago on Nuggets vs. Thunder: Pregame Primer
@thelaughingwiseman I guess you'd have to see him against NBA players to know whether his speed or strength was weaker to determine whether he should guard PGs or SGs. He may not be able to handle either. Maybe with more time.
Clearly he is a SG on offense.
3 weeks, 3 days ago on MRI reveals no further damage to Russell Westbrook’s knee
@thelaughingwiseman He is playing more minutes than last season and shooting 3s better but he averages only 1 assist per game. In NBA he'd have to be paired with a PG that can guard SGs I'd think and handle the passing load. A comparison with Rudy Fernandez is not really an NBA compliment as Rudy couldn't cut here very well.
@Bryson my cousin 3 or 4 steps removed played for him and works for him.
3 weeks, 4 days ago on MRI reveals no further damage to Russell Westbrook’s knee