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decided to believe the injury outbreak and the disruption factor.

3 hours, 15 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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Yeah, either I'll do well or folks can enjoy the opposite. Thanks for doing the compiling.

3 hours, 36 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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if thunder finished 6th in west and lost in first or second round would presti fire brooks? probably not. if he did he might try to get Messina, who might or might not say yes depending on his expectations with regard to how long pop stays. other names might include fizdale, gates. presti might again prefer someone who would not contest his #1 power position at all.

6 hours, 46 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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which is about 30% of time

8 hours, 34 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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oops. I meant 538.com.

8 hours, 59 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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Project minutes and RPM by player based on past and aging curve then sum for whole team. see the recent grantland article that has gsw in title.

9 hours, 3 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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best rpm summation, depth, hunger, good ast. coaches to help each side of game.

9 hours, 6 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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It changes each time I look at it, but I'll go with this, to be a bit different:

1-15 downwards

gsw

sas

lac

dal

mem

okc

por

hou

phx

den

nop

sac

uta

min

lak

9 hours, 10 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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past deadline I believe

9 hours, 14 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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yeah morrow was cheap because of weak d and injuries. probably more than that too.

9 hours, 14 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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total of 51 team seasons of plus 5 in 10 yrs. so that level of performance gives you about 20% chance of title. thunder with 3. 2 more and you can say should on average have a title. but it is not like free sub sandwich punchcards.

10 hours, 30 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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in part because a plus 8 by spurs is probably closer to a plus 10 by others given their system of managing minutes down and hurting net rtg.

10 hours, 39 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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the worst main rotation spur on rpm

10 hours, 41 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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make that 4 titlists below plus 8. averaged plus 5.

10 hours, 43 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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titles in tries in last 10 yrs when going plus 8 or better in team net rtg:

spurs 3 for 3, Boston 1 for 2, bulls 0-2, cavs 0-1, mavs 0-1, pistons 0-1, Lakers 1-1, heat 1-2, thunder 0-1, magic 0-1. total 6-15. so 40% when 8 plus of net rtg and half title winners had less. plus 8 and not the spurs really doesn't mean much.

10 hours, 49 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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rattle the complacent? it is a possibility. but presti signing Thomas shows concern for bigman depth due to injuries.

11 hours, 56 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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I don't think anyone sees Jones at pf at this point, including Jones. right or wrong.

11 hours, 59 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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presti saying rj is "core" in public again. sign he is really trying to get an extension deal against the odds or just robot presti words without significance?

12 hours, 2 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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a young version of Caron?

12 hours, 5 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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realistically is there a team who would start Perry this season or next? who is it?

12 hours, 6 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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fairly decent by boxscore. bad by RPM.

12 hours, 10 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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would Durant as well? really mad or just excuse? either would be bad news.

12 hours, 19 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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lose rj for nothing and many national media will turn further on presti.

12 hours, 20 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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all the injuries and question marks probably make reggie's agent think they have more leverage. but presti doesn't really want what rj says he wants and probably won't offer enough money to compensate. not many teams have what rj wants (starting pg, lead role and money). Lakers, pistons and knicks would, especially next summer. maybe a few others.

12 hours, 21 minutes ago on Saturday Morning Cartoons: Offseason

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the injury bad news is unlikely to be over. at least one of these guys will take longer to get back or re-injure. early injuries are better than late but bad luck is on a roll...

1 day ago on Kevin Durant No. 8 in #NBArank

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they still play baseball?

1 day, 1 hour ago on Kevin Durant No. 8 in #NBArank

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Stevens is into analytics compared to many of his noncurious peers. But how deep is his interest and knowledge? I have skepticism. Need to do more than have teams take 3s and look at raw plus minus lineup data (that's what he is "famous" for at butler) to be very into analytics and getting big results. His debut season was a yawn.

1 day, 12 hours ago on Friday Bolts – 10.24.14

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strong or weak opponents (their man and overall)?

2 days, 9 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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this probably says more about spurs, but still massive change needed or reversion in next playoff matchup with spurs.

2 days, 11 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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comparing just 2012 series against spurs to the 2014 series, spurs better on 3 factors in 2014 and thunder worse in all 4. so while thunder got better in 2014 compared to 2012 in general playoff performance, it was the complete opposite against the spurs. very complicated.

2 days, 11 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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I didn't focus on 2013 playoffs but yeah. incomplete info a product of writing as I think then more as I remember more. sorry for not waiting and composing better, later

2 days, 11 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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rw's absence in a portion of 2013-4 reg season contributes to this. the stats will be affected by kd's absence in 2014-5 too. but 2012 to 2014 playoff comparison is pretty legitimate and surprisingly good. they must of slipped some on something or else they really threaded the needle in their 2012 run.

2 days, 11 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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I haven't ck'd the exact same 2nd round and later stats I discussed below for 2012 playoffs but looking at full 2012 playoffs data, it appears thunder were actually better in 2014 in all 3 areas. so without harden / martin they got worse in reg season... but better on playoff stats.. but not on playoff outcome. complicated.

2 days, 11 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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Det not autocorrected set

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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isn't making 3s at all in preseason

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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they always carry / acquire too many in summer. on purpose. perhaps overestimating trade prospects and abilities. but in part they don't mind spending a little extra to even maybe finding an advantage.

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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was there no better package offered or could have been prompted? presti has been well above avg record in draft. in free agency below avg. in trades? might be below avg

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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to clarify: my original post involved late round playoff data. from there we shifted to looking at reg season performance ok but different. probably ought to look at similar playoff data too.

also kd's absence will largely offset rw's last season with respect to own fts. assuming both healthy in playoffs they should do better there than reg season. but... Durant didn't get as many ftas in last pkayoffs I believe. with injury will that get worse not better?

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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morrow could help own fg%. not much reason go hope for efg% allowed improvement. Adams and Roberson might do better but unlikely to be better there than thabo and perk. no strong reason to expect better ft differential unless the ball movement focuses on finding cutters or bigs foul less.

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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yep decline there too, significantly. fall from peak in all 3. sustaining pattern of last yr ain't going to cut it. need one or two improvements at least or spurs fall offs.

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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so on 2 most important factors, presti's team based on his design & decisions have gotten less strong. what about fg% allowed?

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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his usage rate is more uncertain to me than his 3pt fg%.

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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make that 76%.

of 11 questions last season that had a definite answer the gms went 7-4. almost any informed fan went that good or better.

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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85% of gms thought Miami was going to win title last season. there is not a lot of difference between the views of gms and informed fans on most things. not sure how big the gap is on basketball intelligence.

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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I looked at the 4 factor data for last 4 playoffs for teams in west excluding the expected win first round. Comparing the averages for the winners to the losers, the most important factors to winning margin in order were own efg%, efg% allowed and then ft differential. turnovers and rebounds matter a little but the least. spurs and thunder each had all three edges last time compared to simple lg avg but spurs edge was bigger on first two. clips had all three edges and were also better than thunder on two. gsw were good on 2, Houston all 3 but one barely, Portland 3 but 2 barely. who improved or declined on these specific factors? that is important.

2 days, 12 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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I believe Ballmer and detlef schrempf are friendly. wonder if set becomes an informal or formal adviser.

2 days, 13 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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kindascottish used the term thunder fan. you shifted to the individual. I am more a thunder observer / fan than a Westbrook fan but that is true for any comparison of the team to player.

as westbrook's rpm improved in last 2-3 yrs my respect has risen as it has as I understand the value of high usage players with moderate ts%. I am still critical, in part because I think he could be a better leader overall, decisionmaker whether and when to shoot and defender. I don't think I differ from a lot of fans in that view. I just happened to have said these things a lot and firmly. I probably won't do it as much in future because it rests with him and brooks. Either he wins as is, changes and wins title or doesn't win title (with or without change, though it is the title that matters more than the change).

2 days, 13 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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Temper is a / the leading cause of loss of composure. Most important in deep playoffs but this season regular season is important for seeding, especially if they go below #2 in west, which there is more chance of than in last 3 yrs.

2 days, 13 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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Fwiw, I am. But Brooks is too.

2 days, 14 hours ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.23.14

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