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@Webster81 Casey should get renewed by Toronto unless the GM goes egotistical and self aggrandizing and wants to name his own guy or they get into a battle over money. If Casey becomes free I don't think Presti would swap him for Brooks or Casey really wants to go to Sonic successors.
3 hours, 18 minutes ago on Wednesday Bolts – 4.23.14
@Perk-Punt @Crow Unless Presti were to move Westbrook or Jackson we are talking about 3rd string guards for next season and that is a pretty minor thing... unless someone gets hurt.
3 hours, 21 minutes ago on Wednesday Bolts – 4.23.14
@Coaeche Brooookes If they have a bad series loss I think the pressure, if it really comes and it probably won't for Mr. stability stay with the same plan as much as possible Presti, would be directed towards Perk and just maybe Westbrook.
3 hours, 23 minutes ago on Wednesday Bolts – 4.23.14
@Tvaddic But I now see his winshares per 48 minutes is really terrible too. Much worse than Perk's.
3 hours, 25 minutes ago on Wednesday Bolts – 4.23.14
@Tvaddic PER is really heavily oriented toward scoring contributions.
3 hours, 29 minutes ago on Wednesday Bolts – 4.23.14
Might have been better than Maynor and some of the other minor PGs used along the way.
Could still be a decent option next season if he'd take modest money and 10 minutes a game.
3 hours, 30 minutes ago on Wednesday Bolts – 4.23.14
Presti may have helped select Udrih for Spurs but he did not avail himself of several chances to get him on the Thunder. But with Fisher around it wasn't going to happen.
3 hours, 31 minutes ago on Wednesday Bolts – 4.23.14
by this measure it is Russ' worst playoffs and moderately below league average.
1 day ago on Tuesday Bolts – 4.22.14
By winshares per 48 minutes Durant and Ibaka are doing great. Fisher the only other better than league average. Perk and Jackson neck and neck for worst rotation guy.
@BlueBradleyOKC agree that it is over done with him, especially with just one (?) credited steal payoff.
rest of team not getting enough, not sure if they are trying enough.
@OKC035 So far thunder has best EFG% allowed but lowest /' worst turnovers forced rate.
@supreme35 Didn't read last night. But I respect your stated concerns.
Thunder 12th on team 3pt FG%. Slightly above average on rate of taking them. 11th on what they allowed the Griz.
basketballreference estimate says Thunder have about 77% chance to win series.
@BlueBradleyOKC @CrowDurant's defensive impact rating is well down from last season. Could be change in the metric design, noise or real.
@BlueBradleyOKC @Crow Spurs work well but by real plus minus I don't think they have any +1 on both offense and defense guys.
Only about a dozen such guys in league.
@BlueBradleyOKC @CrowFor regular season only two teams had 2 or more +1 or better guys on offensive and defensive real plus minus. Clippers with 4, Mavs with 2.
Durant on is only slightly negative but Durant off in short minutes has been hugely successful.
@d21 @BlueBradleyOKC@Crow Serge positive on both offensive and defensive RPM but not quite +1 on offense.
@BlueBradleyOKC @Crow By "real plus minus" Collison is only Thunder player +1 or better on team offensive and defensive be. Durant and Westbrook just barely above neutral on defensive impact.
Gasol estimated as having negative overall impact on Memphis offense.
Westbrook's slightly positive.
Huge negative +/- on /off for Perk. But Durant's is significantly worse.
Thunder starting lineup is terrible in playoffs again (as usual). -16 per 100 possessions. So far it is the very worst lineup used in playoffs over 20 minutes (by miles). Of course not everyone has played two games. It is bottom third of those used over 10 minutes.
1 week, 5 days ago on The Side Part: Week 24 – Fat lines
Advanced analytics also says substantial part of Russ' personal defensive rebounding is offset by a reduction in teammate rebounding. Not that surprising or weird but a new statement about my statistical wanderings in search of better understanding of basketball and / or the limitations to understanding basketball better. Ha.
To be honest I recently saw an advanced stat estimate that claims Russ has a modest helpful impact on opponent scoring. That doesn't fit with my eye test dubious view of his man to man defense. Maybe eyes deceive or eyes deceive when one judges too soon or based on inaccurate memory based accounting or maybe it fails to account for the impact of his offense on defense or his fierce attitude on team defense while he is on the court. Math does not express all that may be happening.
Thanks. Trying at least partially to be open minded. As it happens I could do that and put heat on those asserting a positive impact for him.
Advantages to being good looking and affable and maybe average or better on real qualifications compared to the competition.
Kerr is in the fortunate position to coach in NBA and if he fails he gets future yr pay from that and walks back to big money easy tv job on top of that.
There has been a fair amount of Perk defense in the media lately. I don't really mind it but I don't generally buy it either. But it leads me to say this:
If Perk is as bad as he is on both box score stats and adjusted plus minus then your defense of him has to challenge the findings of not just one (which is the common way to defend players) but rather you have to challenge both. Is there a way to challenge without it being just denial? There is one way- assert that Perk has positive impact on team when he is off the court AND that this positive impact is greater than his measured worse than average on the court as measured by box score and adjusted plus minus. The argument would have to be that the defense with him off the court is better because of the starting example he sets and / or the weak offense example the team sets with him on court prods the offense with him off the court to do a heck of a lot better (by necessity). I don't necessarily buy this but it is theoretically possible and logically necessary unless you intend to challenge the accuracy of both box score and APM metrics generally or for Perk specifically.
Biggest minute lineup with Adams and traditional starters sucked this yr. May be good or bad next yr.
Rockets waived Greg smith. I'd probably pick up, even just for next yr. Prob not playoff eligible now.
Could argue that sticking with traditional starting lineup even
in limited games might have made enough impact to cause this small but important shortfall.
Weakest offense on average.
Aimed at Howard but now applies to team management.
Which team do folks want to play in first round?
Not all superstars are great every playoffs. C Paul in 5 playoffs was great 3 times, average once and terrible once.
Prob never get much flack. Only baseball purists / traditional make a stink in defense of long gone greats.
Spurs really weak this yr against best teams. Shorthanded in some but so are others and spurs by far the worst on this among top contenders
Only won 54% of games against teams above average on pts scored per game. Most playoff teams will be in that group.
Importance of defense and maybe advanced stats- butler estimated as having 12th worst impact on opponent shooting. Adams 26th worst in league. Presti at one time employed 5 of the current worst 26 including Mullens and Maynor.
I recall computing that players above .200 on winshares per 48 minutes win a title about once per 10 such seasons. More frequently when you have 2 such guys. Durant and Westbrook and mgt still have a few years to meet or beat average but they might not.
Presti's media style is different on surface but maybe not that much underneath.
As usual when in smug jackass media mode.
Maybe not but if they don't win atitle that will go down as a major fault derailing his other virtues.
And in past playoffs Presti apparently has either been absent in telling him to, late or ineffective. Will this happen again for 3rd time in 4 years?
If they disappoint in playoffs this coaching / mgt rigid thinking is a top contender to be a main factor in that shortfall.
Before last nights game the traditional Thunder starting lineup was the 3rd worst in league used over 250 minutes. But it appears it will be most used in playoffs again despite its past playoff suckage.
By new ESPN real plus minus Westbrook is21st best pg defender amonst the top 40 and estimated slightly despite those steals and rebounds.
Westbrook did show more defensive intensity last night but IMO it is way inaccurate to say he "never quits on a play". In most games I've seen this year he almost quits on guarding his msn as soon as he gives up the ball. He steals the ball and rebound the ball but rarely gives help d. After his man passes or goes by him his most common next action is sit and wait for apass from the rebounder,even before the shot goes up or hits the rim. He can play good d and often does when they really need but it is far far from an everytime thing.