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ESPN's RPM metric had Memphis projected to win 57. They just didn't publicize it.
2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://analyticsgame.com/
@Otis Byrd III "What is Byrnes talking about?" You have to ask the guy who told the guy who told Byrnes.
9 months, 2 weeks ago on Eric Byrnes: 2013-14 was David Lee’s “most miserable basketball season”
@paperback writer I must have missed his help on D his entire career then.
Draymond plays with no fear. That is why he is a special player. Barnes, well, is not special.
1 year ago on Curry and Bogut lead Warriors to win in Utah
This is fantastic. Writing D3 directives for Angular has been on my todo list for a while now.
1 year, 10 months ago on Sky Blue Trades | AngularJS + D3.js = Radian
@ascreamingacrossthecourt Ooh, that's interesting. Another idea I had (for another day) is to do this in 3-D with %AST being the third axis. Perhaps, there would be a frontier plane to look for!
1 year, 10 months ago on Lists! The League's Best Scorers in 2013 according to Scoring Index
@plarson01 USG is definitely coming too!
2 years, 1 month ago on Introducing NBA WOWY!
@plarson01 I'll definitely be putting possessions up, but minutes will come later. For basketball reasons. ;)
@JakeNichols Right now, because you can do any arbitrary combination that doesn't make much sense. But if you want to do that, just run the query without any filter and do the comparison manually. Hey, it's better than nothing right?
I have an idea about letting the user chain together multiple queries for comparison, so eventually you'll be able to do this automagically. That may take a bit of time, though.
@ivanbe I would argue that you are actually implicitly following the rules already. We might could only settle the ceiling comparison (Granger vs. Pierce vs. whomever) by actually constructing such a bet in real life. ;)
2 years, 3 months ago on On Ceilings and Floors and Betting
@ivanbe LeBron or Bird. Is Bird the ceiling for LeBron? Is LeBron already better?
@ivanbe "If you actually asked everyone to put money on this game, then of course nobody's going to say LeBron. And then you just have a boring game with safe bets and little imagination."
It actually does sound like we're playing the same game. I'm just giving it formal rules.
@creedofhubris Good suggestion. I haven't done that yet, but I should. I would assume the TP11 ratings will be similarly shrunk, but it would be interesting to see the ∆ values.
2 years, 4 months ago on Bayesian True Power Ratings for the NFL
@creedofhubris I don't know. I read somewhere that this has been one of most unpredictable seasons in recent memory. I've seen models that are producing crazy results like Denver being #1.
@creedofhubris They are and those won't come up until more games are played. It's the bias-variance tradeoff.
@creedofhubris Good idea!
2 years, 4 months ago on Starting work on Bayesian football power ratings
@creedofhubris The Vegas line on BAL-HOU was -7.5. If you picked Houston to beat the spread, you would have won. Bayes predicted the spread to be -4.3, meaning "Houston beats the spread". That is the sense in which "BEAT" should be understood here.
@bjlevy34 " The more games you play, the smaller the standard deviation will be even with the exact same variability in performance."
This is not true. The mean of the s.d. upon repeated samplings will be the same whether the sample size is small or large. What will change is the distribution of the s.d. and the C.I.'s. For large sample sizes, the s.d. will approach it's "true" value by LLN. For small sample sizes, the s.d. could be smaller or larger than the true value, or it could be the same. We don't know. Go try it out for yourself with a RNG. Calculate the s.d. for 100 values sampled from a U(0,1) distribution and do that 1000 times. Do the same exercise for 1000 values 1000 times. You'll see that in the second case, the s.d. is just about the same in each trial, but the for the first case the s.d. will vary substantially. Sometimes it will be higher, sometimes lower, but the mean of those trials will be the same as the mean of the larger trials.
This is not to say that I disagree with your main point, however. In general, we should not trust smaller sample sizes as much as larger ones. So if Aaron could take this a step further, calculate confidence intervals, yada, yada, maybe we'd see a real effect, or maybe not.
2 years, 5 months ago on Player Capsules (Plus): The Flickering Candle of Stephen John Nash
@Blumbs Eric Snow is not even close to the worst jump shooter of all time.
2 years, 6 months ago on The Tyranny of Allen Iverson
@DSMok1 You read my mind!
2 years, 6 months ago on Stephen Curry is a great shooter, but he ain't *that* great
@EthanSherwoodStrauss @GhostofGeorgeLynch A lot of it is rule changes that have made defenses less effective over the years. One major one is instituting the 3-second rule in 2001. Imagine if Shaq or Duncan (or today Dwight) could just park in the lane, how difficult it would be to drive to the basket. I think, not coincidentally, now you have an era of slashing point guards who make a living that way. In 1999 they completely eliminated contact by defenders with their hands or forearms in the backcourt. There were also changes on defending screens to prohibit defenders from wrapping up or clutching screeners or re-routing offensive players coming around a screen. Those changes apparently weren't enough. The biggest change came in 2004-05 when they completely eliminated hand checking. The ORTG went from 102.9 to 106.1 and stayed above 106 for the next several seasons until last year when it dipped back down to 104.6.
For anyone who follows advanced stats and knows what RAPM, it should be noted that Iverson did have a very positive effect on offense from 2003-2008 (the data doesn't go back farther).
@EthanSherwoodStrauss @AndyGrimsrud No doubt, but better than the alternative of being kicked out of the league after your second contract.
@EthanSherwoodStrauss @AndyGrimsrud You know, just out of curiosity, I went to BBR PlayIndex+ to look at whether AI improved over time. Indeed, check out his eFG% on jumpshots:
A couple blips along the way (2004 and 2009), but that's pretty amazing improvement on the jump shot over the span of a decade. It has to be put in perspective, of course. Stephen Curry, for example, shot 58.6% eFG% last season.
@AndyGrimsrud "You could build a team of defensive aces (that are usually cheaper and more easily obtained than gifted offensive players) and stick Iverson out there to be the entire offense, and win games that way."
But couldn't you stick a lot of players in there? Would Monta Ellis have been an All-Star if he played with Dikembe Mutomobo (or *cough*Andrew Bogut*cough*)?
@khj It's about 2 1/2 seasons through February 2012.
2 years, 6 months ago on Which Set of Rankings Passes The Eyeball Test?
Got to be the hands.
2 years, 7 months ago on How did Michael Jordan play?
I'll say this. Everyone missed on John Henson. Except for me.
2 years, 7 months ago on Milwaukee Bucks Roundtable: Milwaukee's ceiling, floor and everything in between
2 years, 7 months ago on Things looking up for Golden State