Its Raining 3's
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@Crow @DXL Just compare team defense with and without Perkins and Jefferson over the last couple years. Last year, Utah was 10 pts better per 100 possessions when Jefferson was off the court! It's pretty hard to over come that.
6 months, 4 weeks ago on Monday Bolts – 8.12.13
@Lambchop HakaAdam's 1st year in college was comparable (just 5% less in PER36) to Joakim Noah's 2nd year in terms of rebound and blocks. Noah got to the FT line a lot more, had a lot more assists, and points. But it was Noah's second year. I think Adam's ceiling is Noah, if he works really hard and is developed perfectly, I don't think anyone would complain. After his 1st year in the NBA, at age 23, http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/summer_league08.html he averaged 5.4 reb and 6.4 pts om 18 minutes a game, helped by a 12 rebound game. Adams at almost age 20 averaged 9.7 pts and 5.7 reb but in 27 minutes. Adams is on track but its going to be a couple years, hopefully right as Perk's contract is up, for him to be able to handle a starting center gig.
7 months, 3 weeks ago on Tuesday Bolts – 7.16.13
@DXL Lamb only played SF with the Thunder, did he succeed a lot more as a SG at Tulsa? Our perception of him might be skewed because he was out of position when he played on the Thunder. Lamb is only 6'5. He really should only be playing SG.
8 months, 1 week ago on Wednesday Bolts – 7.3.13
@BiffMoneyball Yep, only 29% of his shots in 2008/2009 were jumpshots with the celtics but last year 47% of his shots were jump shots. His eFG% was 35% on those shots.....
Martin has been good but he clearly hasn't figured out the whole bench role thing switching between the #1 and #4 option. Unless he blows up in the playoffs and I think the Thunder would be wise to just give Kyle Korver a 2yr $6 mil contract or another 3pt specialist.
11 months, 1 week ago on Player Power Rankings: Planting seeds
For all the shots that FIsher has missed, the team has a higher offensive efficiency when he is in the game than anyone else (small sample size aside). Also, when Fisher and Jackson play together, the team is a +16 / 100 possessions. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/fishede01/lineups/2013/
11 months, 2 weeks ago on Thursday Bolts - 3.28.13
@TheFix82 MOV is most predictive when your team stands out in MOV historically and adjusted for strength of schedule.
11 months, 2 weeks ago on Are the Thunder the most dominant team in the league?
Looking at Lebron's Cleveland team in 2008-2009 that won 66 games and had a high MOV, their biggest flaw was that the team got out scored in the regular season when Lebron was off the court by 6 points/100 possessions. The Heat this year are out scoured almost 4 points/ 100 possessions when he is off the court. Last year it was 3, but they played at a much slower pace which helped to prevent teams from making a run. The Thunder have out scored their opponents with KD or Westbrook or Martin off the floor, so we are more balanced overall but less dominant in our starting lineup. Maybe that doesn't mean anything but its interesting.
The 1990-1991 Bulls went 4-8 against the top 5 teams. Long win streaks in the regular season, especially when you play the easiest schedule in the NBA aren't as big a deal as its being made out to be. The Heat have won a bunch of really close games against far inferior opponents, so I'm not too worried. However, the starting lineups for the Heat and Spurs are much more dominant than ours has been, and now we don't have a dominant bench to counter a slow start like we did last year.
@Nicky Scarfo That's what everybody is saying about Irving but I have yet to find a stat that backs that up. Cleveland has a 10% higher assist % when he is out of the game and 10% fewer of Irving's possessions end up in an assist than Westbrook. Of course Irving doesn't have a KD on his team, but the team assist % shouldn't be a lot lower with him off the court if he is such a good passer.
1 year ago on Thursday Bolts - 2.28.13
@jimboslice Its hard for leadership to come purely off the bench, guys follow the way others play. I'm not saying he should start or get more than 15 minutes. If you want to talk about a gap, then look at the gap between your arguments and reality, the thunder outscored their opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions with Fisher in the game last year compared to 6 without him. The offense was at its best when Fisher was on the court, I'm sure a lot of that was due to Harden, but when Jackson was on the court they were only 3 points better. In the playoffs when Fisher played more, the team was 6 points better compared to 1 when he was off the court. You don't have evidence to back up your assumption that team plays better without Fisher, his numbers look bad but if he was such a detriment to the team then the lineup numbers would show it.
Why all the hating on Fisher? Brooks played him at the 2 with Jackson which is ideal and the lineups he was in performed really well, +22 per 100 possessions. Just cuz a guy doesn't put up great stats doesn't mean he can't elevate the play of his teammates, and the opposite is true as well. Westbrook can have incredible 1st quarters but since he doesn't get his teammates involved it drags down the offense, despite his great shooting. Perkins is a good example in certain situations he elevates the defensive play of others. Putting 4 guys with 20+ PER together looks good on paper but the Lakers have proven that it doesn't translate as well to in-game success. The Bulls started Keith Boggans and were able to win games! There are so many variables that go into how a lineup performs, you can't just add up individual PER and expect that to tell you something. We'll certainly see over the next couple weeks how well Fisher and Brewer fit in to the team. We have sooo much talent on this team its more about maximizing our talented players rather than tweaking the minutes of guys that get 10-15 minutes. Fisher might have a calming presence on Reggie or provide some leadership that has been extremely lacking since Harden left. Those small tweaks are really underestimated, its those tweaks that guys like Pop master so beautifully and allow them to get more out of less. Martin has never been on a winning team and has never developed the type of leadership that the 2nd unit needs, they look lost out there as a unit against good teams like the Heat. Enough with the ranting, I'm just so tired of people thinking giving minutes on the 2nd unit to Fisher is this big bad thing. Presti wouldn't have signed him if he wasn't confident that Brooks was going to play him too much again, hopefully Brooks has gotten that out of his system :)
@[censored] @Lambchop Aldrich looked good in garbage time minutes, never produced outside of them...
We still outscored opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions last year in the regular season and had a higher PER than his opponent when he played SG. The thunder would not have given Reggie Maynor's minutes and then traded Maynor away if they weren't confident that A) they wanted to invest in Reggie's development and B) were sure Fisher was going to sign and had a plan in place on how to use him. I find it really hard to believe that Reggie will see his minutes cut in half by Fisher. I think Fisher plays SG along side Reggie to add some perimeter shooting that Reggie lacks. A lineup of Jackson/Fisher/Martin/Collison/Thabeet with Brewer in when facing bigger SG. Many forget but the #1 lineup in terms of minutes in the regular season was Fisher at 2 along side Westbrook with KD playing the 4, one of the most dominant lineups. That lineup was a +33 per 100 possessions!
1 year ago on Practice Report: Derek Fisher will ‘definitely’ play
1 year ago on Thunder acquire guard Ronnie Brewer
Brewer started most of the year for Chicago last year, averaged 25 minutes a game for the team with the second best record and finished with more win shares/48 the last 2 years than any year Thabo has had except this year. He isn't very good defensively but he is a veteran that is a good defender and doesn't turn the ball over. A bigger Thabo clone. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't average more than 10 minutes a game. I think Presti going after another defensive wing, but someone that is too small to guard Lebron, suggests that Brooks wants to play more small ball with Martin at the 2 instead of the 3 so he doesn't get stuck on big SF.
@AIaska @Skyline The Knicks got off to a hot start when he was in the starting lineup, but their record got worse as he played less. I'm sure there is a direct correlation and that it doesn't have anything to do with Felton getting hurt. :)
Perkins and Thabeet turn the ball over 25% of the time they get the ball! I think part of the reason our small ball lineups are so good is that we don't waste possessions passing the ball to our centers. I'm officially on the Jermaine O'neal bandwagon to replace Thabeet. He's cheap, he scores, he shoots 80% FT, he is on a non contender playing off the bench. Brooks can stay big for the same number of minutes just sub O'Neal with Martin unless Perkins is playing well. If Perkins gets hurt like he did last year, Thabeet will play 10-20 minutes a game. Anybody want to see Thabeet against Duncan or DJ or Gasol? Perkins is too integral to the leadership and defensive mentality of the team to trade him, but Presti needs to give Brooks a quality alternative. O'Neal won't correct the lack of passing or defense against Miami but if our bench can be dominant against Miami it will help level the playing field a little.
1 year ago on Friday Bolts – 2.15.13
@Sigmund @PerkPunt. Plus minus isn't without vslue but Maynor has significantly more minutes with KD. The second unit with Westbrook or KD is much better with Jackson than Maynor, Jackson just doesn't know how to feed KD.
1 year, 1 month ago on Friday Bolts – 2.1.13
@[censored] @alvarex Kind of wish Ibaka was the #1 option on the the D-league team for a week, just to give him experience and build confidence.
1 year, 1 month ago on 3-on-3: Snubbed?