Its Raining 3's
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@[weed wolf faction] @mattchant @Stephen Jackson is not about this spelling Seems pretty hard to separate Gasol's physical deterioration and D'Antoni's poor defensive structure. When Kobe wasn't playing, who on that team was a real threat outside of Gasol this year? I think we still need to prioritize signing a volume 3pt shooter but assuming we had a way to get rid of Perkin's contract, it seems that starting Gasol would help the offense in the same way that Collison helps the offense, through passing and making occasional mid-range jumpers. He definitely doesn't appear to be worth $10 mil a year though.
I don't see him coming here to play off the bench, and he isn't a good enough jump shooter to play alongside Adams, so it would be a 25 minute, starting center-only type gig in my mind.
7 months ago on Thunder free agency primer
@[brooks' fault] @Jooseppi@ LukeNo way against a Duncan/Splitter frontcourt. I could see it against the Heat though. If Brooks starts Butler/Perkins vs Duncan/Splitter, he deserves to be fired on the spot.
8 months, 2 weeks ago on Serge Ibaka out for remainder of the postseason
@[brooks' fault] Collison played with Lamb more than anyone else this season, and they were a +11.4, while Butler-Collison was +6.7. The Collison-Harden and Collison-Martin 2-man game was usually reliable, Lamb-Collison was headed in that direction and then Lamb hit a slump and Brooks/Presti hit the panic button. Now the Collison/SG 2-man game is mostly absent and our bench hasn't quite been the same. Maybe Lamb never would have recovered or maybe he would have worked through it eventually. But Butler's awful 2pt shooting really limits the potential of that 2-man game.
8 months, 3 weeks ago on Wednesday Bolts – 5.7.14
@[brooks' fault] Durant and Westbrook set the tone on both sides of the ball for the team, when they get lazy and stop playing smart, their teammates follow. Probably not a coincidence that KD's 2 worst playoff, 2010 and 2014, have come in his two highest usage seasons. KD ha a usage of 34 and 36% in Jan and Feb, I think he just got worn out. Our bench all season long has really struggled when KD and Westbrook weren't in, which puts more pressure on Brooks to bring KD in early when we don't have a 20 point blowout.
@Crow @DXL Just compare team defense with and without Perkins and Jefferson over the last couple years. Last year, Utah was 10 pts better per 100 possessions when Jefferson was off the court! It's pretty hard to over come that.
1 year, 5 months ago on Monday Bolts – 8.12.13
@Lambchop HakaAdam's 1st year in college was comparable (just 5% less in PER36) to Joakim Noah's 2nd year in terms of rebound and blocks. Noah got to the FT line a lot more, had a lot more assists, and points. But it was Noah's second year. I think Adam's ceiling is Noah, if he works really hard and is developed perfectly, I don't think anyone would complain. After his 1st year in the NBA, at age 23, http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/summer_league08.html he averaged 5.4 reb and 6.4 pts om 18 minutes a game, helped by a 12 rebound game. Adams at almost age 20 averaged 9.7 pts and 5.7 reb but in 27 minutes. Adams is on track but its going to be a couple years, hopefully right as Perk's contract is up, for him to be able to handle a starting center gig.
1 year, 6 months ago on Tuesday Bolts – 7.16.13
@DXL Lamb only played SF with the Thunder, did he succeed a lot more as a SG at Tulsa? Our perception of him might be skewed because he was out of position when he played on the Thunder. Lamb is only 6'5. He really should only be playing SG.
1 year, 6 months ago on Wednesday Bolts – 7.3.13
@BiffMoneyball Yep, only 29% of his shots in 2008/2009 were jumpshots with the celtics but last year 47% of his shots were jump shots. His eFG% was 35% on those shots.....
Martin has been good but he clearly hasn't figured out the whole bench role thing switching between the #1 and #4 option. Unless he blows up in the playoffs and I think the Thunder would be wise to just give Kyle Korver a 2yr $6 mil contract or another 3pt specialist.
1 year, 10 months ago on Player Power Rankings: Planting seeds
For all the shots that FIsher has missed, the team has a higher offensive efficiency when he is in the game than anyone else (small sample size aside). Also, when Fisher and Jackson play together, the team is a +16 / 100 possessions. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/fishede01/lineups/2013/
1 year, 10 months ago on Thursday Bolts - 3.28.13
@TheFix82 MOV is most predictive when your team stands out in MOV historically and adjusted for strength of schedule.
1 year, 10 months ago on Are the Thunder the most dominant team in the league?
Looking at Lebron's Cleveland team in 2008-2009 that won 66 games and had a high MOV, their biggest flaw was that the team got out scored in the regular season when Lebron was off the court by 6 points/100 possessions. The Heat this year are out scoured almost 4 points/ 100 possessions when he is off the court. Last year it was 3, but they played at a much slower pace which helped to prevent teams from making a run. The Thunder have out scored their opponents with KD or Westbrook or Martin off the floor, so we are more balanced overall but less dominant in our starting lineup. Maybe that doesn't mean anything but its interesting.
The 1990-1991 Bulls went 4-8 against the top 5 teams. Long win streaks in the regular season, especially when you play the easiest schedule in the NBA aren't as big a deal as its being made out to be. The Heat have won a bunch of really close games against far inferior opponents, so I'm not too worried. However, the starting lineups for the Heat and Spurs are much more dominant than ours has been, and now we don't have a dominant bench to counter a slow start like we did last year.
@Nicky Scarfo That's what everybody is saying about Irving but I have yet to find a stat that backs that up. Cleveland has a 10% higher assist % when he is out of the game and 10% fewer of Irving's possessions end up in an assist than Westbrook. Of course Irving doesn't have a KD on his team, but the team assist % shouldn't be a lot lower with him off the court if he is such a good passer.
1 year, 11 months ago on Thursday Bolts - 2.28.13
@jimboslice Its hard for leadership to come purely off the bench, guys follow the way others play. I'm not saying he should start or get more than 15 minutes. If you want to talk about a gap, then look at the gap between your arguments and reality, the thunder outscored their opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions with Fisher in the game last year compared to 6 without him. The offense was at its best when Fisher was on the court, I'm sure a lot of that was due to Harden, but when Jackson was on the court they were only 3 points better. In the playoffs when Fisher played more, the team was 6 points better compared to 1 when he was off the court. You don't have evidence to back up your assumption that team plays better without Fisher, his numbers look bad but if he was such a detriment to the team then the lineup numbers would show it.
Why all the hating on Fisher? Brooks played him at the 2 with Jackson which is ideal and the lineups he was in performed really well, +22 per 100 possessions. Just cuz a guy doesn't put up great stats doesn't mean he can't elevate the play of his teammates, and the opposite is true as well. Westbrook can have incredible 1st quarters but since he doesn't get his teammates involved it drags down the offense, despite his great shooting. Perkins is a good example in certain situations he elevates the defensive play of others. Putting 4 guys with 20+ PER together looks good on paper but the Lakers have proven that it doesn't translate as well to in-game success. The Bulls started Keith Boggans and were able to win games! There are so many variables that go into how a lineup performs, you can't just add up individual PER and expect that to tell you something. We'll certainly see over the next couple weeks how well Fisher and Brewer fit in to the team. We have sooo much talent on this team its more about maximizing our talented players rather than tweaking the minutes of guys that get 10-15 minutes. Fisher might have a calming presence on Reggie or provide some leadership that has been extremely lacking since Harden left. Those small tweaks are really underestimated, its those tweaks that guys like Pop master so beautifully and allow them to get more out of less. Martin has never been on a winning team and has never developed the type of leadership that the 2nd unit needs, they look lost out there as a unit against good teams like the Heat. Enough with the ranting, I'm just so tired of people thinking giving minutes on the 2nd unit to Fisher is this big bad thing. Presti wouldn't have signed him if he wasn't confident that Brooks was going to play him too much again, hopefully Brooks has gotten that out of his system :)
@[censored] @Lambchop Aldrich looked good in garbage time minutes, never produced outside of them...
We still outscored opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions last year in the regular season and had a higher PER than his opponent when he played SG. The thunder would not have given Reggie Maynor's minutes and then traded Maynor away if they weren't confident that A) they wanted to invest in Reggie's development and B) were sure Fisher was going to sign and had a plan in place on how to use him. I find it really hard to believe that Reggie will see his minutes cut in half by Fisher. I think Fisher plays SG along side Reggie to add some perimeter shooting that Reggie lacks. A lineup of Jackson/Fisher/Martin/Collison/Thabeet with Brewer in when facing bigger SG. Many forget but the #1 lineup in terms of minutes in the regular season was Fisher at 2 along side Westbrook with KD playing the 4, one of the most dominant lineups. That lineup was a +33 per 100 possessions!
1 year, 11 months ago on Practice Report: Derek Fisher will ‘definitely’ play
1 year, 11 months ago on Thunder acquire guard Ronnie Brewer
Brewer started most of the year for Chicago last year, averaged 25 minutes a game for the team with the second best record and finished with more win shares/48 the last 2 years than any year Thabo has had except this year. He isn't very good defensively but he is a veteran that is a good defender and doesn't turn the ball over. A bigger Thabo clone. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't average more than 10 minutes a game. I think Presti going after another defensive wing, but someone that is too small to guard Lebron, suggests that Brooks wants to play more small ball with Martin at the 2 instead of the 3 so he doesn't get stuck on big SF.
@AIaska @Skyline The Knicks got off to a hot start when he was in the starting lineup, but their record got worse as he played less. I'm sure there is a direct correlation and that it doesn't have anything to do with Felton getting hurt. :)
Perkins and Thabeet turn the ball over 25% of the time they get the ball! I think part of the reason our small ball lineups are so good is that we don't waste possessions passing the ball to our centers. I'm officially on the Jermaine O'neal bandwagon to replace Thabeet. He's cheap, he scores, he shoots 80% FT, he is on a non contender playing off the bench. Brooks can stay big for the same number of minutes just sub O'Neal with Martin unless Perkins is playing well. If Perkins gets hurt like he did last year, Thabeet will play 10-20 minutes a game. Anybody want to see Thabeet against Duncan or DJ or Gasol? Perkins is too integral to the leadership and defensive mentality of the team to trade him, but Presti needs to give Brooks a quality alternative. O'Neal won't correct the lack of passing or defense against Miami but if our bench can be dominant against Miami it will help level the playing field a little.
1 year, 11 months ago on Friday Bolts – 2.15.13
@Sigmund @PerkPunt. Plus minus isn't without vslue but Maynor has significantly more minutes with KD. The second unit with Westbrook or KD is much better with Jackson than Maynor, Jackson just doesn't know how to feed KD.
1 year, 11 months ago on Friday Bolts – 2.1.13
@[censored] @alvarex Kind of wish Ibaka was the #1 option on the the D-league team for a week, just to give him experience and build confidence.
2 years ago on 3-on-3: Snubbed?
@PerkPunt Westrbrook doesn't have the lowest TO% than all those guys and I would say Parker is having a better overall offensive year than Westbrook. Still great but he isn't in the prime of his career yet, a scary thought. Parker wasn't consistent until last year really, so Westbrook is ahead of the curve of almost everyone but Paul.
2 years ago on Friday Bolts - 1.25.13
@justin_mia @PerkPunt @rednuht He kills me with his lack of effort on the boards, he is a lazy rebounder that benefits from his athleticism.
@justin_mia According to 82games.com, KD is being assisted on 54% compared to 38% last year, and is taking 3% more shots from "inside". The coaching staff has been more determined to get higher percentage shots for KD, more dunks and more post ups. That's freeing up guys from outside for open 3's. In the past the defense didn't collapse around KD enough because he stuck around the perimeter too much, now KD is closer to the basket and looking for open guys on the perimeter. LeBron has done this beautifully and killed us with this strategy in the finals. What I was impressed with last night was that KD played against Barnes and Hill, two guys that have been able to slow KD in the past. Of course it helps that Westbrook, Thabo, and Martin (compared to Harden) are all shooting better from 3 than last year. Any website to compare the % of open vs contested 3's the last couple of years?
2 years ago on Thunder 2.0: Why is OKC better this season than last?
Maybe we can get in on a Mem-Tor trade, Gay goes to Toronto for Calderon, and Tor 1st rnd pick (via us), Toronto gets Gay, we get Ed Davis.... Davis would be a solid backup C and can play PF. We seriously need a better fill in for Perkins than Collison. While everyone is dreaming about who we could draft with the Tor pick, I think it is way more valuable as a trade chip at the deadline. It's a guaranteed lottery pick, we just need to find a team with a young C or PF that wants to get an extra lottery pick.
2 years ago on Thunder Player Power Rankings: Superduo
I would like to point everyone to the fact, at least based on new 82games.com data, that the Thunder have outscored their opponents with Perkins on the floor this year. Part of that can be explained by the lineup with Cook, where our starting unit got killed. But our starting unit with Thabo has been better and the small ball unit with Russ/Martin/Thabo/KD/Perk >>> Russ/Harden/Thabo/KD/Perk.off/def eff 1.40/1.04 vs 1.05/1.08!! Maybe KD is just getting better at playing the 4, the numbers don't really back that up. Martin stretches the floor better with Russ and KD than Harden did, which will be important in the playoffs. But Perkins has definitely been playing better this year.
2 years ago on Maybe Scott Brooks has it right against the Heat?
@justin_mia @ssen Maybe the small ball lineups take more energy from Bosh and Lebron, they hinted at that last year. You get plenty of rest in the playoffs and they didn't play as much small ball during the season. Maybe it's taking a toll this year.
@justin_mia @alvarex @OBoy Jones III @cemitten @FF_pickups We complain about Reggie Jackson but he was picked what, #22? Trading up for Aldrich was a waste, but at that point Maynor was looking good, so why go after Bledsoe. The rate at which the Spurs score in the bottom third of the draft might be just as impressive as Presti's 3 year run, although the spurs system makes them look better than they are in reality.
2 years ago on Kevin Durant’s 10 best posters
@justin_mia @Lost Ones @tygablood The Jazz had to endure the Sloan debacle and were willing to throw away part of a season, disrupt their chemistry, and deal with public opinion over their trade offers. Presti obviously placed a high price on team chemistry and keeping the potential trades quiet. How many title contenders trade a top 15 NBA player at the deadline? Nobody that isn't trying to get rid of a cancer, Howard and Melo were hurting their teams. If Harden just came out and said that he refused to sign for less than the max then maybe Presti would of had more time, but obviously Harden was yanking Presti's chain. We got a good package but a lot of Harden's value was in potential since he was never given 40 minutes and 20 shots a game as the #1 option. He is better than Dwill but Dwill was also a more proven commodity, albeit with an expiring contract.
@Sigmund @Fezzy @OBoy Jones III Jackson plays more often without KD than Maynor played with KD. Jackson has led a pretty good second unit without Russ and KD, which is the goal.
9N. Collison | R. Jackson | K. Martin | T. Sefolosha | H. Thabeet30:28+10.5-1.3+.132+3.0-0.4+.118+.151+4.5+7.6-.143+28.5+1.4
6N. Collison | K. Martin | E. Maynor | T. Sefolosha | H. Thabeet66:45-4.5-10.9+.002+3.1+2.8+.115+.025+8.2+9.8+.003+2.4
2 years ago on Tuesday Bolts - 1.15.13
@justin_mia @thunder_mike Where are those numbers from? At 82games.com its 115 and 107...
@Lost Ones I have a hard time ever seeing Ibaka being capable of being the #2 option on a title contending team and not an efficient #1 on a lottery team.
2 years ago on Finishing Left: KD’s new move
@Lost Ones Can you provide examples of the type of player Ibaka could be? All the high end big men are decent passers, Ast % over 15 %, Ibaka is at 2.3% with KD, Westbrook, and Martin/Harden. Perk has an Ast % 7-9, even at age 21. The low Ast% is the result from Ibaka being mainly a catch and shoot guy. He lacks the feel for the game that separates the good players from the great players. Maybe in a couple of years he learns how to pass and put the ball on the floor, however by age 23 he hasn't shown enough of those skills to be able to project a higher offensive ceiling. He is a good defender that can be an effective catch and shooter offensively, he just hasn't shown flashes of being able to move to the next level.
@justin_mia @FF_pickups The advanced stats backup Justin. http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/grantho01.html, in terms of value, Grant in the early 90s was better than Ibaka is now, had one incredible season, but generally was at or slightly below Ibaka's current level. Grant had 4 times the Ast % that Ibaka has currently. Of course Grant was several years older. For Ibaka to reach the next level it is going to take a pretty big "leap" in his skill set, the point I think Justin has been trying to make. He just got better at the skills he already had, I think a leap is developing new skills. Let's be honest here, Ibaka will never be a dominant big man who you can run your offense through like Duncan or KG. But he will probably be in the David West mold with a little bit better defense. Harden in his last 10 games is averaging almost 30ppg on >45% FG at 23, and is on track to be the best SG in the league once Wade and Kobe retire.
@justin_mia It's a shame that Harden and Westbrook can't coexist. I think in general it's hard to have ball handlers at PG and SG, MJ and Kobe never had high usage PG's for a reason. Harden might end up being a better overall player than Westbrook at the end of their careers, but he was not going to be able to maximize his talent next to Westbrook and KD.
2 years ago on Thursday Bolts – 1.10.13
According to http://www.82games.com/1213/12OKC10.HTM. Ibaka is amazing when he plays the 5. It is a much smaller sample size but he has been a dominant rebounder +5rb, and opposing 5's have an eFG% of 46.7%. More small ball please!
@anonymous12345 @Its Raining 3's Maybe not as low as you think, expiring contract and can still be a good distributor in the right situation.
2 years ago on Thunder Player Power Rankings: High standards
@gnaygg @Its He's expensive, but he isn't playing right now so if the Thunder are willing to pay up like they did with Fisher last year it might be a good match. However, he hasn't played SF in a long time and his defense is shaky. I'd rather have Kenyon Martin than Harrington.
According to 82games.com http://www.82games.com/1213/1213OKC2.HTM, Jackson has be infinitely better with the full 2nd unit (Martin/Thabo/Collison/Thabeet), +18, while Maynor in that lineup was +0. However, Jackson hasn't played as well with KD in the lineup but its also a much smaller sample size. It's going to take a while for Jackson to get used to playing with Martin and KD. Maynor would be alright on a slow paced defensive team with a scoring big down low. The Thunder have incredible trade assets, it just doesn't feel like Presti wants to shake up the team given their past and current success. As has been mentioned before, there aren't a lot of minutes to go around with KD and Russ playing so many minutes. I'd be in favor of adding a scoring SF/PF that would take Thabo's minutes with the second team and/or slide Collison to center in the right matchups. I wonder if the Magic would take Maynor +Dallas pick for Andrew Nicholson.
@justin_mia @MostJadedGamer The Thunder had a disappointing DP last year, way too many close games with inferior opponents. I'm still skeptical we can keep up our DP, which is probably just as much a result of the easy schedule as individual improvement. If jackson just took Maynor's minutes the 2nd might play some defense and our DP would be even higher. I wonder how skillful a stat like " average biggest lead in a game" would be in discriminating playoff success, seems like many of the top teams have mediocre to poor second units that are not as important in the playoffs. Of course you could also look at the stats of a teams top 5 lineups or something that would account for the period of the game in which the scrubs/rookies are playing.
2 years, 1 month ago on OKC wins its ninth straight, topping the Hornets 92-88
@CLthunderfan @DXL I agree, I'm ready to see Jackson have another shot at the backup PG, but I think they are showcasing Maynor and trying to keep up his trade value. Jackson is a much better defender and he is shooting at twice the fg% and 3fg% as Maynor, although its an extremely small sample size. The Thunder didn't draft Jackson so they could trade Maynor for an upgrade at backup PG. If we trade Maynor it will be in a package with picks to upgrade another position.
2 years, 1 month ago on Tuesday Bolts - 12.14.12
@Keith00 @Its Raining 3's @justin_mia @DXL You don't take on a 3year 8mil contract to get a top 5 pick, not a team in rebuilding mode. Clev would have to be idiots to take on Perkins. They can't amnesty him either. Some teams would trade a top 15 pick just to get rid of a contract like Perkins'.
2 years, 1 month ago on Monday Bolts – 12.3.12
@justin_mia @Keith00 @DXL If Clev trades Varejao, they will probably commit to starting Zeller, which renders Perkins useless and on a big contract.
@justin_mia @Keith00 @DXL I don't see us trading Perkins. He is seen as too valuable to chemistry and mental toughness that probably can't be replaced by Varejao. However, from a financial standpoint, you still have to balance out Varejao's contract. According to Trade Machine this works: Tor Pick, Lamb, Maynor, and Collison for Varejao. So Varejao get's collison's minutes and would be a great small ball center next to KD and can take some of the scoring load of the second team off of Martin's shoulders. No way does Clev take on Perkins, it makes zero sense.
@justin_mia @thelaughingwiseman @PerkPunt The bench is giving up all the points though, that stupid Maynor/Martin/Thabo/Collsion/Thabeet lineup. The Thunder don't go for the throat, they let up on defense when they get a big lead. If we were playing better teams I think the defense gets better. We might be pushing the pace up against bad teams as well, preventing our defense from getting set.
2 years, 2 months ago on Monday Bolts – 11.19.12
@Crow How much faith can you put in this if 2 of the top 3 lineups are from Cleveland and Charlotte?
2 years, 2 months ago on Friday Bolts - 11.16.12
82games.com finally updated for this year, big surprise Perkins is the only regular rotation member that has a negative +/- for the season http://www.82games.com/1213/1213OKC1.HTM. Also, the Martin/Thabo combo has been incredible and our small ball lineup with KD as the PF has been insane. Small sample size though but Brooks has hopefully noticed that Perkins is useless if he isn't guarding a scoring big. http://www.82games.com/1213/1213OKC2.HTM
2 years, 2 months ago on Wednesday Bolts – 11.14.12