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@504ever @jas8888888888 That "model" is really just based on how much individuals contributing, which is a combination of per 36 stats, and time on the court. Jimmer hasn't seen much time in recent years, so of course the model predicts him as bust. His model is equivalent of chicago school economics. All information is revealed by how much a coach uses a player. If they aren't being played, they must suck.
I think I'd want a model that can predict something outside of how much a player is being played.
4 days, 18 hours ago on Rounding out the Rotation: the Pelicans’ Seventh Man
@MasonGinsberg @jas8888888888 I apologize for the Jimmer crazies. I think you all are really fair. I'd just say, it depends what Monty wants. There are other players with fewer weaknesses than Fredette, but also fewer strengths. Jimme has an elite skill in shooting and scoring. If you can use that skill as a role player, Jimmer can be weapon. But it would need to be a second unit designed to get him and Ryno looks, because they are both ridiciously efficient.
If you want Jimmer to just go stand in a corner and wait for an occasional outlet, and then try to play D, he's not being used as weapon, and will give up more points than he scores IMHO.
@CowbellKingdom @TABDOG Thanks for setting TABDOG free!!
8 months ago on Why Jimmer Fredette no longer made sense for the Sacramento Kings
@mdjaehn @Em Gee@sleslie1 Sunk costs are irrelevant. All of this other stuff is rumor and conjecture and doesn't matter. While I'm sure there might have been a little jealously about the hype about Jimmer, Jimmer's rookie season didn't play at well. From this point on, Jimmer's career is up to him. Same for Demarcus. I think Jimmer will fit in great with a defensive team that needs scoring. If he wants more than spot minutes he'll have to get better at defense or playmaking. If Demarcus wants to be an all-star, he'll have to lead his team to winning, and stop whining so much. With that said, with Demarcus, IT, and Rudy, I think the kings can start winning if they get the right SG and shot blocker.
Lets hope they meet again in the playoffs next season as rivals!!
I'd say the main difference between Thomas and Jimmer is that Thomas was rewarded with more playing time when he played well his first season. When Jimmer was leading the NBA in PER to start his second season, his minutes were still kept to a minimum despite struggles from both IT and Brooks. That's the baffling thing. This season, had its ups an downs and even though his minutes were limited, he did consistently well in that limited but consistent role.
Whatever it is, I think its the right move for both parties to let Jimmer go. Malone can only hope he can get his team to buy into team defense like the bulls. In that setting, a spark-plug shooter is pure gold, and I think we'll see Jimmer find has niche.
Poor shooters always brag about their defense.
So Malone thinks sparse playing time reduces FG%.....
8 months ago on Orlando Johnson looks to bring Pacers mindset to Sacramento Kings
@Mad Dam @daddychop @Charger11 Not in the games I've seen. The strategy of other teams (the good ones) seems to be to try take either Gay or Cousins out of the game (depending on the SF or C matchup defensively), and then to let IT take things one and one. IT is good and will keep things close, but because he tries to break down the other team one on one, by min 30 IT starts making bad decisions, and the other team pulls away. This is how Warriors beat us last week, with Iggy taking Rudy out and IT had Curry, but down the stretch lost steam.
Playing IT 40 min a game is the perfect recipe for tanking IMHO. IT keeps things close for 30 min, but then gets tired and other team pulls away. The games are moderately entertaining/frustrating, but the lottery pick numbers improve in our favor.
8 months, 1 week ago on Will Jimmer Fredette see reduced minutes for the Sacramento Kings?
@daddychop @sebass31@snooch2danooch He didn't get traded because the 76's have 9 second round picks. Nobody else has them. So there were few contenders that had a second round pick to off him, as only contenders want a rental. The rebuilding teams don't want to give up an asset to get him, because they can always sign him in free agency. For the kings, he's an expiring contract, so the weren't willing to trade him for another player with another contract. That limited his options to just winning teams which are playoff bound, and very few had 2nd round picks to offer given the hoarding of the 76's.
@layituplikeaman Losing teams don't want a rental for two months. So that limits options to contenders..we'll see. I think the early trade with the Heat might not be the last for the Kings.
8 months, 1 week ago on CK Press Box Report: Golden State Warriors 101, Sacramento Kings 92
@Andromeda4 @layituplikeaman He was trying to pass to Gay and Gay was lazy getting on the court.
@layituplikeaman Its on the draft express website. Look at the meta data. The individual data has the typo.
8 months, 2 weeks ago on WATCH: Jimmer Fredette scores career-high 24 points in Madison Square Garden
@layituplikeaman I believe he's talking about reach. Both are strong. Regarding agility I believe that's a typo on IT's agility (that would mean he completely destroyed everyone who has ever done the agility test by order of magnitude). Also in the meta results for everyone, IT"s agility is 10.49.
Come on guys, quit setting up strawmen, lets move on. Jimmer's a great shooter who hasn't been utilized properly, whose ceiling unknown, but he has to turnover the ball less to get more time on the court.
IT's a great scorer, who is improving in running an offense, but on many times would be a spark off the bench, but an our team, has won a 3 year battle to be PG. He has a lot of strengths. He has it for the next 4 months. Next year....who knows.
They're both great offensively, they both suck a defense. They should play together more often.
Now everyone else, get a room!
@layituplikeaman Let me quote you ...."If Jimmer played more minutes his % would go down."
If he shot 5 3's in 36 minutes, that would actually be reducing his overall attempt rate per 36 minutes from what it is now. I agree that if his usage rate went up, as its already at 23 percent, that would probably lead to decreased efficiency. But if his minutes went up, and his usage went down, his efficiency could very well stay the same. He's playing efficient offense, except on the turnover side. If he could cut his turnover rate by 20 percent, man watch out. Then he'd merit more time as PG, right now he's really a combo.
@layituplikeaman There is no law of mathematics in basketball. There's a lot of statistics, there's a lot of game theory, but there's no law that says performance declines in minutes. If any thing, if we were to estimate such a parametric function (how percentages relate to minutes), it'd probably be quadratic and not linear, as you suggest. Rather than address any of the points I raised, you claim there's a law in mathematics. I'm pretty familiar with math, and I can assure no such law exists. I do agree if his usage rate went up a lot, we might see his performance decline (as happened with IT when he tried to shoulder all of the offensive burden with Cousins and Gay out), but minutes played...I suspect its non-linear, and every player has their own peak.
I agree to maximize performance and minimize the negatives of players, its about fit, and Jimmer fits in best with ball dominant SG or SF where he can add space, and punish teams for double teaming.
@layituplikeaman His per 36 attempts are down only 1 per 36 from his rookie year, and identical to last year. For Jimmer to shoot 200 attempts this year, he need to increase his attempts per 36 minutes to around 10 or 11, given he is only play 11 mpg. For comparison sake, Curry is attempt career high 3pt attempts per 36 and he's only at 8.
Forecasting this stuff is tough. You want to separate signal from noise. Two things are trending at the same time for Jimmer. His time has trended down, but his experience has trended up. Given he has more experience we might expect him to do better. Some players do better with less minutes, but some do better with more (especially when talking about only play 10 mpg). So your argument about his minutes and 3pt attempts while true factually, might be a spurious correlation, and the real causal thing increasing his percentage is his experience.
To counter your argument, Jimmer's usage rate has gone up since his rookie year. Usually an increase in usage leads to lower efficiency, but in Jimmer's case, his efficiency has gone up, shown by higher true shooting percentage and effcective FG percentage. The only thing Jimmer looks worse at is his free throw rate (the number of free throws he gets), but that's partially because he hasn't been in the game when other teams are in foul trouble, and also partially because he's taking more pull up jumpers coming off of screens and usually floaters rather than trying to finish at the rim.
Jimmer looks better and more composed, and is at his best taking open shots (from anywhere). I think we both want the same thing. Jimmer when your open, shoot the freaking ball!!!
8 months, 2 weeks ago on Sacramento Kings at All-Star Break Q&A: trade deadline, call-ups and Jimmer Fredette
@layituplikeaman IT actually passed the ball to Jimmer a lot last season when they came off the bench together and Brooks was starting. But this season, its a little tough to determine optimal usage with Cousins, Jimmer, Gay and IT on the floor because they all have true shooting percentages at around 57-60 percent. Pick the poison (for the other team).
@layituplikeaman By your logic, if he makes his next 3 he's up to 50 percent..
He looks better this year and than last year, and last year he shot 42 percent, so I bet this year he's a 45-50 percent shooter, which is where his average has been all season.
If he look more three's it would probably help the team, because from a game theory perspective if you shoot better from 3 than 2, you should shoot more 3's!!
@layituplikeaman To be clear, I think his currently play merits probably 18-20 mpg. To get more beyond that, he would need to continue to improve. So right now, I would guess he's in the needs more minutes to get better part.
@layituplikeaman I don't shooting percentage is linear in time played its probably quadratic. Meaning if you don't play enough minutes, you get have no routine. If you play a lot of minutes, you get tired and your going against starters. So I think there is a happy medium, if want to maximize his shooting percentage. Maximize points for the team might be a different calculus problem.
Regarding, potential, we like to forecast the future for these guys, but really, a lot of it is up to them and making the most of their opportunities and working hard. For many current all-stars, and past hall of famers, their career took off because someone else got injured and they stepped up. We might look at guys like Kobe and think they're more talented, but really they put in more work than anybody else in the offseason. If Jimmer wants more minutes, he has to keep working hard, and eventually he get more opportunities. If he can have more games like the last one, he'll get more opportunities. To be an all-star he would need 35 min a night, but he would also need to improve his handle, his ability to finish at the rim, and his passing. I don't think Jimmer has peaked yet, so its up to him to keep improving. Lets hope he does because that would be fun basketball to watch.
@layituplikeaman I agree on many dimensions. Keith Smart was willing to sacrifice long term development for short term wins (why else do you play Aaron Brooks over IT or Jimmer). Malone is invested in the future. He's not perfect, but he's a huge step up, and the culture is slowly changing.
That said, Popovich figures out how to use weapons. He's aided by the fact that many of his players have different skills which complement each other even if each player is flawed. In the case of the kings, the pieces are not are complementary, because for every player on the team they can be summed up as
1. Offensively good, defensively bad
2. Offensively inconsistent, defensively bad
Trading a few of the offensive players for defensive minded ones, would help a ton on both sides of the floor, because bad defense makes it harder to run your offense.
That said the last game I saw many plays which were being used to free Jimmer up, with off the ball screens. Also I love the play Landry caught the inbound pass, Jimmer used him as on off the ball screen and Landry passed it through to Jimmer who then had a wide open pull up jumper. Most players in the NBA don't routinely create their own shot, some elite players do, but most teams utilize ball movement, player movement and screens to create a defensive lapse in the rotation. I hope to see more plays where players give up their own shot to help another player get a wide up open shot down the road.
@Cowbb I think the team looked great. It was nice to see B-Mac, IT, and Gay find Jimmer for open 3's after he hit a couple in transition. It was also great to see Williams setting screens, and for other players setting screens for Jimmer when he was off the ball. Although Jimmer was going off, it was a total team effort.
I'd say in addition to improving his mid-range shots, Jimmer is catching and shooting A LOT better. Beforehand, it feel like catching and shooting that Jimmer would want to dribble the ball first, or he have the ball a big dip before shooting. He still dips, but his shot is looking more efficient, and he's doing a good job of bringing imperfect passes into his shooting motion in a more effortless manner.
@layituplikeaman Definitely premature. But I think if IT and Jimmer both keep improving, it wouldn't surprise if we looked back at this time and thought "Jimmer didn't get big minutes, but he was behind IT"
Jimmer is only number 1 in 3pt percentage (and he's qualified now).
I don't know if Jimmer can start, it'd take the right team, and he'd need to cut down his turnovers a ton, but I think if given 20 mpg in the right situation, he could contend for 6th man of the year.
8 months, 2 weeks ago on Road Reaction Postgame Show: Sacramento Kings 106, New York Knicks 101
@layituplikeaman Just imagine what he'd do to the Jimmer fans....
8 months, 3 weeks ago on Isaiah Thomas faces growing pains as Sacramento Kings starting point guard
@layituplikeaman You do realize Korver plays 35 minutes a night, right? :-) I'd be careful in your usage of the phrase never, because its possible, even if somewhat unlikely. He'd need to improve his handling and passing a lot. If he plays how he's played this year, his shooting alone gets him 10-20 MPG on the right team, and possibly more, if there is a ball dominant forward to share the ball handling duties. He might get in the all-star game in the 3pt competition.
I don't blame Malone for Jimmer not being an all-star. I do blame Malone for Jimmer not getting enough time on the court to qualify for the 3pt competition, and for sometimes having some weird rotations. I'd give credit for him improving Jimmer's defensive effort and IQ, and doubling Jimmer's rebounding.
8 months, 3 weeks ago on Road Reaction Postgame Show: Boston Celtics 99, Sacramento Kings 88
@layituplikeaman Good points. You might also note he's also getting a career year out of Jimmer, you leads the NBA in FG, 3pt percentage and FT in limited minutes. Jimmer has also doubled his rebounding rate, which is a much needed improvement. Jimmer has his flaws, but Malone is getting super efficient offense out of Jimmer, in addition to the others you mentioned. That's pretty good for a rookie coach.
@layituplikeaman The kings have two open roster spots. They'd have be taking on three more guys then they were sending out. Maybe if a team was willing to take on Landry and Thorton we could get 5 contracts, but I'm pretty doubtful that would happen. The scenario you suggest is pretty improbable.
@layituplikeaman First, I'm not sure that's something to brag about....second I saw several times in the last two games where he ditched the ball to other players who weren't coming off screen and weren't wide open for them to try to create something with 2 seconds left on the clock.
One reason the other players aren't shooting efficiently is plays aren't being run to get them open, they are being used as bail outt option when Plan A and B don't work out.
@layituplikeaman Perhaps the players would look better for him to pass to if he didn't just pass the ball to them with 2 seconds left on the shot clock.
@layituplikeaman That might be true (better with a pass first PG). But you're also here discussing his foibles and no one else when 10 other guys played tonight, and a bunch of them missed their shots and Aaron Gray wasn't played when he could have hacked and slowed things down and set some good screens for the shooters.
But two things are worth noting, ever since the hand check rule changes, PG's have become almost impossible to slow down which has lead to more scoring PG's. True pass first PG's are becoming a rare breed (even MCW is scoring 17ppg).
Second point, players can still get better. Some players get content making millions a don't develop. Others take a harder road and keep working harder and harder every offseason and season to get better. Jimmer has gotten better in every department since he joined the league. Most players don't hit their true peak until they are about 28. So if Jimmer can start cutting down on T/0's and improve his D a bit more he'll be a completely legit back up PG/combo guard, and perhaps an elite role player just for his ability to shoot the ball, which he is true excelling at right now.
Lastly if you think this is a Kings blog, why don't you talk about the 10 other guys who saw the floor, many of which aren't getting any better??
@layituplikeaman The Spurs do, when that player shooters 48 percent from 3.
@zeke22 @Cowbb Here's the big question. Is Outlaw the answer at SG when MT is hurt? Yeah he's taller, but he's way slower, is a way worse shooter, and doesn't distribute the ball well either.
@layituplikeaman Of course jimmer is only 3 3pts made from qualifying. At his current pace, if he has played 3 more games at the beginning of the season, or even played 30 more minutes at his current pace, he likely would have qualified.
There's noise and signal to all statistics. In Jimmer's case, his sample size over his career suggest he's an excellent shooter from deep. We can also statistically say he's a better shooter this year than his rookie year, even with current sample sizes.
8 months, 3 weeks ago on CK Press Box Report: Sacramento Kings 109, Toronto Raptors 101
@layituplikeaman Come on quit bating the Jimmer fans. On average since December he's been scoring 20 points per 36 minutes. That's well above average for a back PG or SG. Although he played most of the fourth, he was being used for spacing, and was only given the ball on one occasion when he was actually open. You don't need to provide balance to those who are blind to his flaws.
@Cowbb @layituplikeaman I'd say at the beginning of the 4th, there was decent ball movement, but shots didn't fall. Then as the rest of the starters came in, Cousins was the one trying to force shots which still weren't falling. I noticed Jimmer passed up one open shot that led to an easy pass to B-Mac who missed the layup.
@Jim Les for 3 @layituplikeaman Did anyone here actually watch the game? Jimmer played ok, the whole 4th quarter was pretty ugly. And coach went small and had Jimmer, IT, and B MAC for most of the 4th. The offense looked good with good ball movement to start the 4th, but we couldn't buy a bucket. Then B MAC sagged off his man which led to multiple 3s.
@layituplikeaman Everyone was great, and many will point to Jimmer's assists (we all know he can shoot). For me the best thing about Jimmer’s assists was the team got involved. When he drove and attracted three bulls players, Cousins came into the open space to give him someone to pass to. Jimmer once was getting trapped on the baseline, and someone moved to give him an easy pass out, and then passed it right back to Jimmer to reset the play.
For me, it looked much more like everyone was trusting each other and backing each other up. That made it a lot of fun.
8 months, 4 weeks ago on CK Press Box Report: Sacramento Kings 99, Chicago Bulls 70
@Kingznut I'm a Jimmer fan, and I'm fine with him getting 14-20 depending on the night. Maybe 50/50 split between PG and SG. He needs to improve his handle a lot to earn 35 min a night.
9 months ago on Road Reaction Postgame Show: Utah Jazz 106, Sacramento Kings 99
Hope the injuries are minor. Ankle sprains can be minor, and they can also be worse than a fracture.
Regarding achilles, I had an achilles strain playing soccer a couple years back and tried to play through a season with it, and ended up now being able to walk for a week, and then it was 4-5 months before I could run again without pain. Brutal injury. I hope Gay's is pretty minor and just being overcautious.
9 months, 1 week ago on Road Reaction Postgame Show: Houston Rockets 119, Sacramento Kings 98
@KennethBrody @Jim Les for 3 I think that they haven't traded him, because he's a dangerous 3 point shooter, whose value may go up as teams gearing up for the playoffs need another shooter to spread the field.
Also it's been pointed out Jimmer and Gay share the same agent, so it the Kings want a shot at keeping Gay, it may make sense for them to find a nice landing spot (one where he can actually get minutes).
@Cowbb I ran a multivariate regression on IT's games as a king. The more shorts he takes, the less like the team is to win. The more assists he gives, the more likely they are to win. Higher field goal percentages also increases their odds of winning. Basically, he helps the team the most getting the ball to open guys. That's what his own stats reveal.
9 months, 2 weeks ago on Road Reaction Postgame Show: Memphis Grizzlies 91, Sacramento Kings 90
@zeke22 @TABDOG Can we move on from IT and Jimmer discussions. Both were screwed by Smart's rotations in their second year (as he tried to play Brooks and Douglas). Both have improved each year. IT will get a great contract next. Jimmer will get picked up by someone too, and might get a great contract if he can keep his current role going.
The fact is Jimmer has showed himself to be at least a serviceable offensive spark off the bench provided he continues to hit shots at his current rate (about 50 percent from the floor). His stats for the year demonstrate continued improvement in shooting, a much higher assist rate, and drastically better rebounding. With that his defensive rating has improved, and since he took over the back up PG duties, his offensive rating has never been better. Good for him. Jimmer is no longer getting yanked for making a mistake, and Malone generally has settled into a nice rotation making sure Rudy or Cousins is always on the floor when the bench is, which makes the team a lot more dynamic.
If Jimmer wants to be more than a backup, he needs to penetrate better, and cutdown on his turnovers, which means splitting double teams avoiding traps on screens. He's improved a lot. That to me suggests he'll have a place in the NBA which may grow if he can continue to develop.
9 months, 2 weeks ago on Sunday Musings: Jimmer Fredette finds a role and some perspective with the Sacramento Kings
@sosasura I bet if you asked Jimmer if he'd rather have a great light for 15 min a game or spend 30 min a game trying to rebound and give entry passes to Gay and Cousins in the post, he'd might pick 15 minutes to play his game, which is shooting the ball like a beast.
9 months, 3 weeks ago on Sunday Musings: Jimmer Fredette finds a role and some perspective with the Sacramento Kings
@Ruben B @Cowbb @discocricket @JonathanLingo I'd say every player has unique strengths and weaknesses and some are able to adapt to the NBA easier than others. But Jimmer has hardly put himself in the bust category of Adam Morrison because he as been getting better every year. He certainly has shown he can be role player. If he can develop better D (he needs to get mean/tough), finish at the rim more consistently, and cut down on turnovers, his role could grow. To do all of those things he needs to work (which he does) and needs consistent changes to develop in game time. He's getting both. Good for him and Malone.
@discocricket @Cowbb @JonathanLingo I agree to some extent. But at the same time, usually better play merits more time. And in stead of giving Jimmer or Isaiah a chance to develop, Smart and Petrie both put Brooks in the starting line up. That stunted both Isaiah's and Jimmer's development. They weren't given the ability to make mistakes. Both had minutes yanked about, but I'd say Jimmer suffered a bit more.
Smart was crazy with his minutes and lineups and used punishments to develop his players rather than consistency. Coach Malone has given them consistency and a change to make a play after they make a mistake.
@discocricket @benbackstreet This isn't about Jimmer vs. Isaiah. Its about bringing in Brooks. Its about playing other veteran journeymen over your developing talent (also true with Thomas Robinson). The past regime had no vision for the future (because the owners wanted to sell the team and front office was eyeing retirement). The new one does and they have been very patiently developing McLemore even though his PER hasn't been over 10 in months.
Don't forget Jimmer's brother publicly insulted Smart, so there was no love lost between Jimmer and Smart. Lets hope Jimmer can keep earning Malone's trust because that will be good news for Kings and Jimmer fans alike.
@discocricket @benbackstreet I was referring to the last 6 games, which is what James referred to as modest.
To your point, there are many examples of players who rot on the bench until a coach a forced to play them because of injuries and they do incredibly well. Is it practice? Is it the difference between a practice player and a game-time? Is it a question of personality? Who knows, but it happens. '
He was shooting 43 pct on 2 points to start the season, but has done better recent since playing the 1 (where he's around 50 percent for the last 8 games or so).
Also to your point, Jimmer was getting bigger minutes under Westphal, but saw his minutes cut with Smart. That's largely because Smart knew he was in a temp job, and his job wasn't to develop talent, but to try to maximize wins to get his next job (he did this before at other teams too). His minutes are growing now under Malone, which suggest his confidence and the coaches trust are growing too. That's great for Kings and Jimmer fans alike.
Glad to see he's getting his minutes, and if he can continue to improve they might grow. I think he's been given the role most people want to have to develop in the NBA consistent minutes, which was something none of the players had with Keith Smart.
I also don't see how his performance has been modest, other than the minute totals he's been given. 22 points per 36 minutes and 46 percent from deep. That's pretty elite numbers for a combo guard off the bench, and better than other elite scorers not known for defense (Jamal Crawford for instance).
So James, I have a Ph.D. in economics and I did a multivariate regression which examines how Cousins performance affects the teams probability of victory. I found the following.
Increasing his field goal attempts from his 25th to 75th percentil (increase of 5.6) decreases the probability of victory by .02.
Increasing his assits from his 25th to 75th percentile (increase of 3) increase the probability of victory by .17.
Increasing his rebounds from his 25th to 75th percentile (increase of 5.7) decreases the probability of victory by .13.
Increasing his FG percentages from his 25th to 75th (increase of .18) percentile decreases the probability of victory by .12.
In short, when Cousins plays above average the teams tends to win, and below average the team tends to lose. But the the biggest impact he can have on the game by make one play is an assist. And taking more shots has no discernible benefit for the team.
9 months, 4 weeks ago on Sunday Musings: DeMarcus Cousins needs his Sacramento Kings teammates to buy in
@Demarcus Cousins @benbackstreet @TABDOG Not everyone can use cross-overs and hesitation moves to free up 2-3 feet behind the 3pt line on the dribble. Jimmer's great at that.
He struggles in isolation. That's the point at which he turned the ball over was in isolation plays. That's fine if the offense is tailored towards using screens (GSW) vs the PG driving and then finding the open main when the defense tries to collapse (many times us). We have been running more sets with staggered screens, which has worked well for finding open shooters when they can knock down their shots.
I'd also say this season, in the small sample, he's become a much better rebounder, both himself and boxing out other teams' rebounders which makes life easier for cousins and thompson or williams and acy.
10 months ago on CK Press Box Report: Philadelphia 76ers 113, Sacramento Kings 104
@mjmill But the team needed to play better d and prevent penetration.