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@puffybutrbiscts @I am a basketball fan I don't hate Dion. I would like to see him play a few less minutes, but I think that will happen when KD comes back.

2 weeks, 4 days ago on Week in Review: Russell requires more adjectives

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@_justin @meanstreetsofokc Yes it is. I would feel different if the Suns weren't in the toilet or if the Pelis didn't have so many injuries.

1 month ago on Tuesday Bolts – 2.24.15

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@_justin @Loud City Jimmy @Pillendreher Not saying that Reggie is more athletic than Bledsoe, just that he is a great athlete & I don't think the comparison is off base. Also, it was Kevin Harlan that was quoted as saying Reggie had the highest vertical on the team. I am trying to find the original source.

1 month ago on Tuesday Bolts – 2.24.15

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@_justin @Pillendreher Read somewhere that Reggie had the highest vertical on our roster last year. Don't know if that is accurate, but I have always thought of Reggie as one of our most athletic players.

1 month ago on Tuesday Bolts – 2.24.15

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@OBoy (LaFamilia) Don't go to the Clippers. I want to be able to hate the Clippers with no reservations.

1 month ago on Down To Dunk: Trade deadline bonanza

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@Divine Mortal @Loud City Jimmy @King of Carrot Flowers the KA KAW Portland's next 6 determine whether or not they are in play. If they split them, they are out of reach IMO. Won't know about Dallas until their home & home with Spurs.

1 month ago on Down To Dunk: Trade deadline bonanza

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@Divine Mortal @King of Carrot Flowers the KA KAW TLDR = I think we can catch the Spurs, & maybe the Mavs or Blazers.

1 month ago on Down To Dunk: Trade deadline bonanza

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So I spent a bit of time analyzing the remaining schedules of the 8 Western Conference playoff teams to see if it revealed any insight about whether or not we could close the gap on one of the teams in front of us. I did all of this while oblivious to the announcement that KD is sitting tonight, & his availability going forward obviously affects everything, but since I spent a hour & a half doing it, I’m sending it along anyway.

I broke the schedule down in terms of remaining games against a number of groups of opponents. Here were my groups:

Group 1: GSW, MEM, OKC
Group 2: HOU, POR, SAS, DAL, LAC
Group 3: ATL, CHI, WAS, TOR, CLE, PHX, NOP
Group 4: Everyone Else

Here is the schedule breakdown by group (vs group1, vs group 2, vs group 3, vs group 4):

GSW: (2, 7, 9, 12)
MEM: (3, 8, 6, 12)
HOU: (2, 6, 8, 12)
POR: (6, 6, 5, 11)
LAC: (6, 5, 4, 12)
DAL: (5, 6, 6, 8)
SAS: (4, 5, 7, 11)
OKC: (1, 8, 6, 13)

Some takeaways:

There is a guaranteed minimum of 31 losses ahead of us in the standings in games where the teams ahead of us play each other. The worst case scenario is that all the teams split these losses relatively evenly, which would average 4.2 losses per team ahead of us. The better scenario for us would be for GSW & MEM to stretch out their margins over the teams from Group 2 by winning 12 or 13 of their 15 games against Group 2.


We have the largest number of games against the easiest opponents. At this point, any loss by the WC top 8 against group 4 should be seen as a bit of an aberration, though we all know how “should win” games are not guaranteed Ws.


We have 8 games against Group 2, which is great news for us, since we gain a game on each team that we beat. This is particularly important, since we have 2 games remaining against POR, SAS, & DAL, who are the three teams most likely to fall to us given my analysis of the schedule. Of course, it cuts both ways, & losing more than 1 of those games could mean that we are stuck in the 8th seed.


I don’t think that we have any shot of catching Houston. Though they have the same record as Portland, their schedule is considerably softer than the Blazers.


Of the four teams in the middle of the pack, the Clippers seem like the team we are least likely to catch. I thought we had a legit shot at them after we beat them two weeks ago, but their three straight wins against the Texas trio probably puts them out of reach. Additionally, their closing schedule (after Mar. 22nd) is really soft. If we are going to catch them, we need to be already ahead of them by then & I don’t see that happening.


Portland’s next 6 games are super tough (vMEM, vSAS, vOKC, @SAC, @LAC, @DAL). If they manage to split this set, they are almost certainly out of reach for us, but if they go 2-4 or 1-5, & assuming we beat them on the 27th, catching them becomes a possibility.


Dallas has the fewest remaining games against Group 4, but that is in part because they have played the most games, & have already banked a few of their easier wins. Their win last night over Houston was huge for them. That said, they are not yet out of reach. The real key for them is their 2 games against OKC & their back to back against the Spurs (Mar. 24 & 27), but provided that they don’t drop all 4 of them, I think they stay safely ahead of us.


It almost feels like sacrilege to write this, but I think that we are going to pass the Spurs. They are 4 games up on OKC right now with a pair of games left against us. Their closing schedule is absolutely brutal. They finish (vGSW, @OKC, vHOU, @HOU, vPHX, @NOP) while we play (vHOU, vSAS, vSAC, @IND, vPOR, @MIN). They are likely going to need to still be 2 games up on us to hold us off down the stretch.


So after my (spent way too much time on this today) analysis, I think there is a better than 50% chance that we catch the Spurs, about a 30% chance that we catch the Mavs, & a 10% chance that we catch Portland.

1 month ago on Down To Dunk: Trade deadline bonanza

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@Eastbrook Also, Woj's article doesn't mention Augustin

1 month, 1 week ago on Thunder closing in on Brook Lopez: What we know

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Utah will buy out Perk & he'll end up in Dallas or with the Clippers I would guess.

1 month, 1 week ago on Thunder closing in on Brook Lopez: What we know

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Perk Gone!!!!

1 month, 1 week ago on Thunder closing in on Brook Lopez: What we know

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@DonBurgundy I would imagine that deal would include one of them.

1 month, 1 week ago on Thunder closing in on Brook Lopez: What we know

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For what it's worth, I replied to Amick's tweet about RJ's contract offer & he didn't move off it.


http://imgur.com/emrWl68

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@FF_pickups 2:00 PM Central tomorrow

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@Cray Allred Well, he was on the air for about 25 seconds, so we're good now.

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@mattchant Or you could read it as the GM who sees the current Harden, Westbrook & Ibaka while they were still raw athletes & controversially reached to take them earlier in the draft than almost every GM thought they would go, is maybe not such a bad GM.

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@lockness11 Yes, per year. He is going to sign a huge deal. Teams are desperate & stupid. I would be surprised if he signs for less than $14/year.

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@lockness11 He is going to get bigger offers than that.

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@okcjim Thomas is an interesting comp, but he is so small.

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@DaPoint @Loud City Jimmy @Divine Mortal I don't disagree with you. I would not be in favor of paying our backup pg that kind of cash...all I was saying is that someone is going to offer him that kind of money.

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@DaPoint @Loud City Jimmy @Divine Mortal Their numbers from last year before Hayward signed were almost identical.

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@Divine Mortal @Loud City Jimmy Maybe, he's not, but when Gordon Hayward & the like sign for near max deals, you know he is getting a big offer.

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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I have been saying all year long after some of the deals last summer that Reggie was going to be getting closer to $14 than $10, & people said that was crazy. It is just the market now, & more than one team will offer him that too. I am glad to let him walk for that price, but you guys can't seriously be surprised that this is what he is expecting to get.

1 month, 1 week ago on Reggie Jackson awkwardly addresses trade request report

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@McDouble McGary *Sponsored by McDonalds* Certainly improves Houston, but on the bright side, it all but guarantees our spot in the playoffs.

1 month, 1 week ago on Kevin Durant said a lot of interesting things today

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@Jabb0310 Love that it says Nu Jerzee instead of Bruklin

1 month, 1 week ago on Russell Westbrook: Rather win than lead my own team

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@UnfortunatelyOptimistic @L0rv @okcjim no way he opts out...too much $$$ on the table from his perspective

1 month, 1 week ago on Russell Westbrook: Rather win than lead my own team

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@f5alcon @Loud City Jimmy @TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard @d21 I think Reggie is going to get a lot more than that...Maybe I am sleeping on IT, but I wouldn't have thought him better than Reggie.

1 month, 1 week ago on Tuesday Bolts – 2.17.15

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@f5alcon @Loud City Jimmy @d21 Maybe he has "Eastern Conference All Star" potential?

1 month, 1 week ago on Tuesday Bolts – 2.17.15

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@TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard @d21 $6.5ish million for IT over the next three years seems a bit steep for a backup pg.

1 month, 1 week ago on Tuesday Bolts – 2.17.15

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@f5alcon @Loud City Jimmy @d21 Is there a single person in the NBA universe that thinks Terrance Jones has "all star potential?"

1 month, 1 week ago on Tuesday Bolts – 2.17.15

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@d21 There was a lot of talk of Houston trying to acquire Dragic...who could they possibly give up to get him, given what PHX is asking?

1 month, 1 week ago on Tuesday Bolts – 2.17.15

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@CLthunderfan @TempBoy Brandon @CollisonDoppelganger I'm not sure how he moves the needle at all for the Mavs...I don't see how he plays any minutes when Dirk is on the floor. They can't really play him at the 5 without getting killed inside, & I consider every single second that the Mavs want to keep Dirk on the sidelines as a win for whoever they're playing.

1 month, 1 week ago on Monday Bolts – 2.16.15

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@TempBoy Brandon @CollisonDoppelganger Mavs are a better team than either the Clips or Rocket in my opinion, but they have no interior defense apart from Chandler & Amare doesn't help them there. I think Amare is pretty much a non-factor at this point.

1 month, 1 week ago on Monday Bolts – 2.16.15

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@_justin @d21 @Douse em WAITERADE Also, in an ideal world, neither would get more than 20 minutes on our roster. I think we are so much better with Robes or Morrow on the floor than either Reggie or Dion, & I would only play one of them as Russ' backup. When playoff time comes, I think the minutes for Reggie & Dion will both get squeezed even more than they have lately.

1 month, 1 week ago on Friday Bolts – 2.13.15

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@_justin @Loud City Jimmy @d21 @Douse em WAITERADE I am not a Waiters apologist, but I don't hate the move as much as you do. We have too many young players & I don't mind us not having to take on another salary after the draft. Taking on Dion is a gamble, & maybe you will be right & it will be a terrible move, but we'll see. Also, Reggie has been so bad on D, & though his ceiling is certainly higher than Dion's, they have been comparable players (with obviously different strengths & weaknesses), & I would rather pay Dion 5mm next year than Reggie $12 or $13, which is what he will likely cost.

1 month, 1 week ago on Friday Bolts – 2.13.15

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@d21 @Loud City Jimmy @Douse em WAITERADE No, I am with you guys. Paying the tax this year for what amounts to picking up Dion doesn't seem like a great move, but I am going to reserve judgment until after next Thursday.

1 month, 1 week ago on Friday Bolts – 2.13.15

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@d21 @Douse em WAITERADE We can't say that we are paying the tax for Dion until after next week. I still think we get under.

1 month, 1 week ago on Friday Bolts – 2.13.15

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@TempBoy Brandon @ Luke I'm equally frustrated by Morrow's hesitancy to shoot with Durant & Westbrook on the floor as I am about his minutes. He gets a lot of catches with enough space to get a shot off & I wish he would be a little quicker to pull the trigger on some of those. He is in there to shoot. If he doesn't shoot, he really isn't helping.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Thunder vs Grizzlies: Pregame Primer

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@_justin @BarryeffingGibb Really most of the stars from that generation...Jordan, Magic, Chuck...great ballers, but I wouldn't want any of them running my team.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.11.15

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@RobotLion That's a good point. Almost all of Serge's 3 point attempts are uncontested.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.11.15

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@_justin seems like he is diving a bit more to the rim in the last few weeks. I haven't looked it up to confirm, though.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.11.15

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First

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.11.15

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@Lost Ones He doesn't have to play major minutes. He could play the same number he has been playing, just with the starters. There are several ways to limit his minutes, & fortunately for us, Perk does a pretty good job of limiting his own minutes with unnecessary fouls.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Monday Bolts – 2.9.15

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@Es Wild *team we want our spot back* @Loud City Jimmy There are so many nights coming up where at least one of the 3 or 4 teams right above us in the standings is guaranteed to take a loss, since they are playing each other. This is a HUGE factor, & one of the reasons I am still very confident about making the playoffs.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Monday Bolts – 2.9.15

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@Es Wild *team we want our spot back* @Loud City Jimmy They have a stretch of Eastern Conference games after these 11 that they can gain some ground, but I would say in a week or so, they will be included in every conversation about the fight for the 8 seed.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Monday Bolts – 2.9.15

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So, I just took a look at the next 11 games for the Clippers. They have @DAL, vHOU, vSAS, vSAC, vMEM, @HOU, @MEM, @CHI, @MIN, vPOR, @GSW.


They have 2 gimmes in Kings & Wolves, but they could realistically go 4-7 or something like that without Blake over those games. They are in real danger of falling out of the playoffs.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Monday Bolts – 2.9.15

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@sammasaaron @_justin I really like the idea of going small against Memphis, but you can't afford to do it with Robes on the floor, because they will guard him with Gasol, which neutralizes the Thunder small-ball advantage. If you go small against them, you have to play 3 of Russ/Reggie/Morrow/Dion all the time.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Monday Bolts – 2.9.15

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