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@Julius Wrek [AR21 FACTION] @DSMok1 @CROklahoma @d21 (That's wassup) I like it.  Not like we're giving up much.  All the pieces seem useful.

Fit (and team psyche) matters... BPM is just a rough estimate.

2 weeks ago on Thunder deal Jackson and Perkins, land Kanter, Singler, Augustin and Novak

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@AlsoAMagicFan Doubtful

2 weeks ago on 3-on-3: Deadline Day

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The points columns are actual points in this game that the player was worth, vs. an average NBA player.

3 weeks, 5 days ago on The Brow drops the Thunder at the buzzer, 116-113

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@d21 @DSMok1 Yeah, he was playing some D

3 weeks, 5 days ago on The Brow drops the Thunder at the buzzer, 116-113

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@_justin @DSMok1 Yeah, bad things.

3 weeks, 5 days ago on The Brow drops the Thunder at the buzzer, 116-113

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FYI: Westbrook had the best game of the season last night, by Gamescore and likely by single game BPM as well (don't have full DB of that)


http://t.co/jzDgpEhMrG

3 weeks, 5 days ago on The Brow drops the Thunder at the buzzer, 116-113

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@Durants Shimmy I really liked the Adams pick, thought he was a top 5 prospect.

4 weeks ago on Thursday Bolts – 2.5.15

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@nowthatsThunderBball Nice piece

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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@_justin @DSMok1 I emailed Royce Webb about this.  See if it shows up sometime.

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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@durantulous [I do fractions, not factions] @DSMok1 I don't think that's the fault of poor wisdom of the crowds so much as manipulation of things by the Fed and ... and  ... 


Nope, not getting started... ...

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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@OKC035 I totally agree, but maybe that's finally brought him back to near league average... :-)

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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FYI, Nick Collison still rates very highly in the best available public metric, long term RPM: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/longterm_RPM_2015.html

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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On a scale of 1 to 5, how would you rate Presti's move in re-signing Collison?


5 being good.


I'd say 4.  Good, solid move.  Not spectacular.

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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@durantulous [I do fractions, not factions] @DSMok1 

If you get sharp people in a group, they do well.  Like ESPN's "ESPN Forecast" http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/ESPN-Forecast-intro-130415/nba-why-espn-forecast-works


Wisdom of the crowds works pretty well.

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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@Divine Mortal He can make like a ton more money here than elsewhere.  That usually helps--max players usually stay.

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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@_justin @DSMok1 Me too.

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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I would love to see % predictions on KD re-signing with OKC.


I'd say 80% chance.


Can we crowdsource this?  I bet OKC fans have a different perspective than other fans.

4 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Bolts – 2.4.15

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Nick's still close to league average, looking only at box scores, and given his history of exceptional non-box-score value, I'd bet he's still above a league-average player.  I wish he was being played more.


1 month ago on Thunder sign Nick Collison to a multi-year extension

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For what it's worth, I've got Nick worth about $4 million a year, based on THIS season's stats.  Box score only, not even considering his ridiculous non-box numbers every season.  Based on box score stats, he's been worth >$4 million, as much as $9 million, every year since 2007.  And I think that understates his impact.


I think it's a completely legitimate move.

1 month ago on Thunder sign Nick Collison to a multi-year extension

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I think that was from the insider article on possible defensive players of the year. Sounds right.

1 month, 3 weeks ago on Thunder drop a deuce against the Kings, 104-83

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@Jooseppi @GREENE1148 [PERRY JONES IS AWFUL FACTION] Typically guaranteed unless he retires, I think.

2 months, 1 week ago on Wednesday Bolts – 12.24.14

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@_justin @GREENE1148 [PERRY JONES IS AWFUL FACTION] @DSMok1 Yeah, it was a tough decision which way to show that.

Is it a rate stat or a counting stat? Final thought was it is a rate stat in season but then would be handled like a counting stat over multiple seasons.  Sort of odd, I know.


However, when full seasons were summed up to get career VORP numbers, the results ARE prorated for the shorter seasons.

2 months, 1 week ago on Monday Bolts – 12.22.14

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@King of Carrot Flowers the third He is a stats guy, but a lot of the better stats still like Josh Smith pretty well.

2 months, 1 week ago on Monday Bolts – 12.22.14

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@Jabb0310 @Tommy_Parker Pretty solid?  It's the best of all time currently....

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Friday Bolts – 12.19.14

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@GREENE1148 @SeinfeldOKC [Seinfeldtinder] Ditto--the stats LOVED Adams.  Top 3 or 4 pick that season.  McGary also, though not to the same extreme.

4 months, 3 weeks ago on Practice Report: Picking up pieces

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@cemitten @Durants Shimmy That was a joke--there are like 200 of us on the panel...

:-)

I think I rated him either a 5 or a 6, can't remember which.  Current rating is at 4.98 for the last player shown.

5 months ago on Thursday Bolts – 10.2.14

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@FallenOSIRIS @FunakiEjectsAnother [#StartLambFaction] I was one of the rankers... he's on the list.

I think my rating of him is why he hasn't shown up yet.

5 months ago on Wednesday Bolts – 10.1.14

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@_justin @L0rv Nathan's one of the top basketball statisticians out there... most people don't know it yet.

5 months, 2 weeks ago on Friday Bolts – 9.19.14

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@ThunderousHornet Celtics.  I live in Maine now, and my wife's family are all big fans.


Also I like to watch the various analytics-based front offices, and I respect the Spurs a lot.


I root against the NY teams and Lakers.

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Meet Anthony Morrow

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@duhsweetness Maybe somebody that the Cavs used last year?

8 months, 2 weeks ago on Tuesday Bolts – 6.24.14

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@GREENE1148 BTW, you can easily link to any view in the Tableau charts, to show exactly what you're looking at.  Just click the Chain icon in the bottom left and copy the link.

1 year ago on What does adding Caron Butler mean?

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@GREENE1148 P.S. what do likes do in here anyway?

1 year ago on What does adding Caron Butler mean?

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@GREENE1148 Sorry.  :-D

Kudos on the VORP reference before I got here!

1 year ago on What does adding Caron Butler mean?

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Caron Butler's last 5 years, through the lens of ASPM & VORP: http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/DKX7HJ2SN?:display_count=no

He's really not been very good for a while now, to tell the truth...

That said, a veteran presence can be useful, if he's a good character guy.


1 year ago on What does adding Caron Butler mean?

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@DXL Wait for someone else to do projections.  Unfortunately, the best in the business moved to Memphis.


The ESPN summer forecast is also very accurate traditionally, as is Vegas.

1 year, 8 months ago on Wednesday Bolts – 7.3.13

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@Dominator@ErenMus@dollarbillrussellESPN Forecast, which is a very good group of NBA minds (over 200 people) ranked Spoelstra 5th in the NBA: http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/58016/the-best-coach-in-the-nba .  Brooks got 4 votes total out of 1872 votes.  Pop was #1, Thibs #2, Rivers #3.

1 year, 8 months ago on Kevin Martin walks, leaving a hole that needs filling

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@ErenMus @Dominator @dollarbillrussell Most folks put Spoelstra around 5th in the league.  The GM's put him 4th when surveyed.

1 year, 8 months ago on Kevin Martin walks, leaving a hole that needs filling

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@Crow @DSMok1 @Fezzy Right, I think...

1 year, 8 months ago on Report: Thunder targeting forward Dorell Wright

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@DXL Nice work on the trade!

1 year, 8 months ago on Report: Thunder targeting forward Dorell Wright

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He'd be a great pickup.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wrighdo01.html

By ASPM, he's basically league average on both O and D, and has been last 4 seasons: http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/XY8KHGWWP?:display_count=yes

Very solid wing.  Did you know he lead the league in 3 Pointers attempted and made 2 seasons ago?!

1 year, 8 months ago on Report: Thunder targeting forward Dorell Wright

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FWIW, here's what I'd grade these moves:

Steven Adams: A-   Best available, but will not contribute much this season.  Hard to do better, though.

Roberson: B  Lots of potential, not sure the trade up was needed (did Kevin Pelton rating him 3rd best talent spook Presti?)

Draft-and-Stash:  B    draft and stash picks are good--not on crowded roster now, some pan out big time.

Grant Jerrett: A   A good value late in the draft, no assets given up.  Easily could make roster.


Oh, and the Harden trade: A.  Absolutely the right move.

1 year, 8 months ago on 3-on-3: Grading the Thunder’s draft

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@d21@DSMok1Answered more fully on twitter: https://twitter.com/dsmok1

1 year, 8 months ago on Welcome to OKC! Now here are some tips

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@d21@DSMok1Like him quite a bit.  http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/D4M5TZPNM?:display_count=yes


Very similar to Cole Aldrich statistically, but... he had this performance as an unpolished freshman vs. Cole as a polished Jr.

1 year, 8 months ago on Welcome to OKC! Now here are some tips

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@d21@lmp5336Steven Adams top 10 comps purely by measurements from predraft camp:

2005 Andrew Bogut 

2003 Darko Milicic 

2002 Nene Hilario 

2012 Meyers Leonard 

2005 David Simon 

2001 Adam Allenspach 

2007 Major Wingate 

2001 Kwame Brown 

 2006 Hilton Armstrong 

 2005 Channing Frye

1 year, 8 months ago on Welcome to OKC! Now here are some tips

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@DanielLawler We had a good draft.

1 year, 8 months ago on Thunder draft recap: Wait and see

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@DanielLawler We could not pay Harden, and got back two potential players on rookie scale contracts.  It was a very good move long term.

1 year, 8 months ago on Thunder draft recap: Wait and see

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