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@KevinTheNYRBlog Article in three weeks: "SOURCE: Intoxicated Kevin DeLury Bets $5K on Ron Greschner winning 2015 Norris Trophy."
3 days, 15 hours ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@Josh-CK The arena is scheduled to be finished sometime in 2016. I'd bank on the 2017 season being the target; at least from Las Vegas' perspective.
@Josh-CK Miller is a high-octane banger while Hayes is a bit slower and more methodical. Both can play wing or center. There's room for both to make the team if they both earn it.
1 week, 3 days ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/report-kevin-hayes-has-signed-with-the-new-york-rangers.html
@Scott from SEC 224 @Herman_NYRBlog @G Ryan Graves, when sent back down to the QMJHL, comes off the books. Puts them back at 50.
@gravey94 I don't really know what you've been expecting from Miller this far. He turned 21 in March and would have been a junior in college last season. The vast majority of hockey players have not "lit the world on fire" at that point. In fact, majority haven't even played more than five NHL games.
@G John Moore will be #50.
@Sniper Turcotte Good catch, thanks.
1 week, 3 days ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/report-rangers-avalanche-have-inside-track-on-fa-kevin-hayes.html
Over the last two seasons, Derek Stepan is 16th among NHL centers in PPG (minimum 80 GP). That's ahead of Patrice Bergeron, Ryna O'Reilly, Paul Stastny, Jeff Carter, and Nazem Kadri. He already is a 1st-line center and now at 24 years old he's only going to get better. I disagree with the complaints about Rick Nash, but I at least understand the source of them. When it comes to Stepan, I have no idea what anyone who thinks he's not a 1st-line center is looking at.
2 weeks, 5 days ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@TerrieMacklin If this is true, then that's fantastic. However it appears that it's at least partially devolving into, "here's some ice on my head. Support ALS awareness, guys!" Again, though, even mentioning it will hopefully lead to people googling it and learning about it.
3 weeks, 2 days ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
For those who aren't soccer fans, that chip shot was ridiculously good.
1 month ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@JamesLaker1 I must have missed the memo that hitting men for "running their mouths" is somehow acceptable.
1 month ago on Conversation @ http://awfulannouncing.com/2014/espns-worst-nightmare-has-come-to-life.html
@SmellyKisio Average. $5M cap hit until 2019.
1 month ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/rangers-sign-brassard-to-five-year-deal.html
@NYRblogneill Yeah, fixed that. Oops.
Terrible article that doesn't even address the important questions. What the hell is going on in that framed picture behind Zuccarello? Who is that person he is with? Which Old Navy catalog were those stills taken for? Also, why the hell is the Swiffer not stored in a closet somewhere?
1 month, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog Nope, you just called me "not that pithy."
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog Not very good. You separated two independent clauses with a comma and no transitional word.
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog *you're
You'd only need to sell 6,495 article spots to people who want to whine about the Rangers not being big enough. Come on, Kevin. Let's do it and buy the ultimate bachelor pad!
@jslnyr1102 If Staal gets $5.5M, then he, Girardi, and McD would combine for a $15.7M cap hit. Keith, Seabrook, and Hjalmarsson combine for about $15.45M, and that's with a lower salary cap than what will exist next year. Clearly, you can pay 3 defensemen that kind of money while still being a well-rounded, contending team.
@EHBIGAPPLE The Knicks and Rangers are, for many obvious reasons, in very difference places. Phil Jackson is pretty much retaining Carmelo and aside from that starting from scratch. The Rangers, though maybe not perfect, have been a pretty finely tuned machine for years now. Sather has been President and GM forever, Gordie Clark has been head amateur scout for almost a decade now, and Schoenfeld and Gorton have been the right-hand men for Sather for some time as well. I get the sense that, within the Rangers' organization, everyone is pretty much on the same page in terms of what to look for in prospects. They like guys who can skate. They like guys who have a good hockey IQ and aren't one-dimensional. I think, more than many teams, they place a strong emphasis on mental makeup and character; guys like McIlrath, Kreider, and Stepan were praised for their work ethics and attitude when they were drafted, and I can't remember the last time they took a gamble on someone with red flags, such as a Josh Ho Sang or Kirril Kabanov. A big reason they supposedly got rid of Ethan Werek, their 2009 2nd-round pick, was because they weren't enthralled with how he carried himself. They moved him for Oscar Lindberg, who is the consummate professional. When talking to players and other people working in hockey, the message is pretty clear: The Rangers are as good as any organization when it comes to working with its prospects and giving them whatever they need to be successful. Despite his faults, a big credit has to go to owner James Dolan, who cuts no costs in helping make that happen.
@(Blank) McDonqvist Cristoval Nieves' mother arbitrarily started calling him "Buggaboo" as a child. It eventually got shortened to "Boo" and stuck. Based on Danny Kristo's twitter history, it appears he prefers burritos to tacos. Thus, soft shell seems to be his preference. Those are two of your questions answered. I'll work on the rest later.
@betweentheworlds North Americans are first draft eligible at 17-18 and remain eligible until 20. After that, they become free agents. Mat Bodie is 24. Most players don't break into the NHL until around 23. For goaltenders and defensemen specifically, you're looking at an even later peak. That means that, on average, you're looking at about 4-5 years from draft date that these guys will theoretically be ready for the NHL. A lot can happen in that time. At 17-18, most kids are still developing both physically and mentally. It's impossible to predict with 100% accuracy how they will develop. When drafting players, you're not drafting based on what they are at 17 or 18; you're drafting based on what you think they might become in five years. That's why a guy like Keegan Iverson, who had 40 points in the WHL, goes in the 3rd round while Luke Philp, who had 77, went undrafted. It's largely a guessing game. There's a reason why only about 53% of first-round picks play so much as 200 games in the NHL, and that numbers shoots all the way down to about 20% by the late second round. Obviously, if 5 years ago NHL scouts knew that Mat Bodie would turn into the player he is now,then he would not have gone undrafted.
1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@GiveGartneraCup Appreciate it! Definitely a lot of work but I think it's worth it.
@Josh-CK As I tweeted, somewhere between Allen and Skjei.
@Josh-CK I have them as pretty even. The difference for me was that defensemen are a bigger commodity than centers. I could see justifications for rating Lindberg as high as #2 on this list.
@KevinTheNYRBlog I think this was largely based on reputation than merit. Where did the reputation come from? I don't really know. He looked good when he started with Hartford and I think that just carried over despite him not doing much over the last two seasons.
@Josh-CK Since 2000, only 10 goaltenders at the age of 21 have made at least 15 NHL starts. That number falls to eight if you make it 20 NHL starts, which is around what the Rangers would want from their backup. I'm not going to say he absolutely won't be ready, because it's possible. Just very doubtful. In any case, if Skapski does play well this season, then I'm sure the Rangers would prefer he get 55-60 starts in Hartford, anyway, to develop him. Goaltenders take a long time to develop. I don't think Skapski is realistically looking at the NHL until the 2016-2017 season.
@allagash @Herman_NYRBlog @Dgimbz Another good point, but again; this is something that has been accounted for! People who have put in the grunt work have found that, over long stretches of time, the impact of shot "quality" is very minor. Here's a very good article on it by Eric T, who is basically the Bill Nye of hockey statistics.
http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2013/12/12/5114366/nhl-stats-shot-quality-player-evaluationFYI: There are stats that account for where shifts start and who else is on the ice. They are called "Zone Start %" and "Quality of Teammate/Quality of Competition." You can find those numbers on extraskater.com. Obviously, they need to be taken into account as well. A player with a 45% Corsi but starts 50% in the defensive zone is clearly not the same as a 45% Corsi who starts in the defensive zone only 20% of the time. These are things taken into account.
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog @Josh-CK Clearly not. Can you remember an instance in which Sean Avery stopped being Sean Avery because of being punched? How about Chris Neil? Donald Brashear?
@Dgimbz @Herman_NYRBlog I don't think anyone in the stats community has ever stated that Corsi is the only metric that matters and is infallible. There are plenty of other factors that matter. Just like there are plenty of other factors that contribute to health, such as genetics, environment, eating habits, etc. That doesn't somehow negate the fact that smoking is in itself a severely influential factor in how long you might live. The point isn't that signing a bad Corsi player automatically dooms you. It's that it's very likely to.
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog @Josh-CK Here's one study done of many. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7675572
@allagash @Dgimbz @Herman_NYRBlog That's a really nice point! But here's the thing. People have literally sat down with a stopwatch and timed possession, then compared it to Corsi. They found that the difference between Corsi numbers and literal possession of the puck is negligible. Thus, Corsi works as an indicator of possession. So, for instance, a team who has a 60% Corsi in a game has been found to have had possession of the puck for roughly 36 minutes (or 60% of a hockey game). Is it literally pinpoint accurate? No. But it's close enough that it works as a competent substitute.
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog @Josh-CK As I've shown time and time again, that's not true. You WANT it to be true, but don't have the evidence that it is. Just admit that you like fights and antics. There's nothing wrong with that. You don't have to try to justify it as being a winning thing despite all the evidence to the contrary.
@Dgimbz @KevinTheNYRBlog LOL that article has been one of the most mocked by people in the statistics community. Citing Dave Staples is like citing William Lane Craig to debunk evolution.
@Dgimbz @Herman_NYRBlog "Studies that say smoking is bad for your health are unreliable because my grandma smoked a pack a day and lived until she was 93." See how silly that is? Obviously good corsi doesn't guarantee success. It's about trends, and teams who field a roster with good Corsi players are A LOT more likely to be successful than those who don't.
@Dgimbz Feel free to tell the Blackhawks and Kings, who have built their teams to be heavy on possession metrics, who have publicly stated that they highly value possession metrics, and who have collectively won four of the last five Stanley Cups, that Corsi "hasn't proven itself to be all that reliable."
@Josh-CK Yes, I'm sure the people who value antics and MMA over actually contributing to winning a hockey game will go crazy for him.
@FrankCerbone All this did was prove that NHL scorers are inconsistent and biased. There's a reason teams keep their own real-time stats and ignore those from the official box scores.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/the-clear-cut-case-of-tanner-glass-hes-not-good-at-hockey.html
@CJW Also known as the best possession players.
@CJW Nobody called it foolproof. It's about trends. For instance, people who smoke tend to be more prone to lung cancer. That doesn't mean that everyone who ever smokes will get lung cancer. The (mathematically backed) logic is that teams with higher corsi tend to win more. Obviously, you also need to "watch the game" and use the stats as a supplement. However, I don't think it's much of a coincidence that the Los Angeles Kings and Chicago Blackhawks are both the two main pioneers in the advanced stats world and both have won two Stanley Cups in the last five years!
@Say my Name @Herman_NYRBlog It's a five-season study. You're drunk. Read it again tomorrow ;)
@Say my Name @Herman_NYRBlog That was merely one study. I think you're also misreading it. The one "strong in the other direction" concerned the bottom-half of the standings. So, like, teams who fought more may have been more likely to end up 20th overall instead of 28th. In either case, that's not a position the Rangers want to be in. Besides, many other studies have been done. I obviously can not cite them all. Here's one done covering years 2005-2013. http://www.brockport.edu/newsbureau/1990.htmlAnd there are multiple more. I think you need to be careful with the whole "blogger" thing. Nate Silver was merely a "blogger" whose statistical work was equally mocked... now he's basically "The Man." Similarly, Jonathan Willis, one of the people you're also knocking down, was merely a "blogger" but has recently been hired to write for publications such as ESPN, Grantland, and the Edmonton Journal. I didn't just log onto a message board and search for guys who used fancy words. These are some of the most respected minds in the stats community.
@King For Cup Well we literally just traded Derek Dorsett. There's a start. Also, Carcillo is superior.Did you bother reading the article? I think it explains pretty well how I know he can't play. Good luck finding any players who suddenly improved at 31. The possession stats I cited are largely independent of teammates. It doesn't work like that. I recommend reading up on the theory behind possession stats. A good place to start is here. http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/3/14/4104952/hockey-advanced-stats-corsi-intro-primer
@King For Cup Cool. So why not get someone who can do that but can also play actual hockey?
@NYR 2014 I just showed you a study that fighting leads to more injuries and penalties. Not fewer. Therefore, please explain how Tanner Glass "kicking Brad Stuart's ass" would "protect" Nash despite it historically meaning that Nash would be more vulnerable to being attacked in the future.
@Say my Name Please feel free to point out all the flaws in these studies. I look forward to you debunking the National Institutes of Health in particular. That should be a fun one. Thanks for reading!
@CJW @Herman_NYRBlog @jiBRO22 Or people had the foresight to see that these decisions were bad before they were made.
@jiBRO22 I don't understand what this means. Sather also had a reason for bringing in Mike Rupp, Wade Redden, Donald Brashear, Ales Kotalik, and Bryan Trottier. It doesn't mean the reasons were good.
Perhaps you missed the part of the article where I said his Corsi over the last seven years has been brutal. This isn't a one season thing. He's consistently been terrible.