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I've said my piece on Twitter but wanted to leave a brief comment here as well. Thank you to everyone for making this an unbelievable experience. Hopefully you all recognize that all debates had in the comments section were purely hockey debates and nothing personal. It's been a privilege discussing the Rangers with all of you. I'm incredibly sad this experience is over but I'm sure we'll see plenty of Kevin in the future no matter how hard he tries to resist.
As for me, I'm joining up with Blueshirt Banter of SB Nation. I don't mean this as a product pitch, because I know you all came here for The New York Rangers Blog's special brand which will never be replicated. But that's where I'll be if anyone still tolerates me after all this time. As always, you can find me on twitter at @Herman_NYRBlog. Your readership over the years has gotten me through some rough patches for me personally, so I thank you all for being open to my thoughts and writing. It means a lot to me.
4 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@JMK8363 Chris Mueller is the team's fourth-line center. He is a PP specialist. Moore is the third-line center.
4 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/jets-1-rangers-0-shootout.html
@BringBackBeukeboom Or maybe you just haven't heard of them. We literally have a stat called "Quality of Competition." Also, "nowhere near as comprehensive or predictive as they are in other sports" is a long ways away from "bullshit."
4 months, 4 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@BringBackBeukeboom If you are truly involved in the field of analytics and cost-benefit analysis then you shouldn't be naive enough to assert that a nine-game sample size discredits conclusions drawn from almost 10 years and almost 25,000 games of data.
@gravey94 That's exactly the point. PDO fluctuates HEAVILY over small sample sizes but balances out in the long haul.
5 months ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/the-rise-of-mats-zuccarello-is-inevitable.html
@KevinTheNYRBlog @ObviouslyTwoPointsAreGreat Alternative theory: It's been seven games.
5 months ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
I don't think there's much doubt that Marc Staal isn't playing the best hockey of his career. That being said, his possession numbers have fallen in large part due to whom he's being paired with. The return of Dan Boyle in itself should bring things back to relative normalcy.
@Hotfreak Pretty well. He's never going to put up All-Star offensive point totals (then again, how much did we expect McDonagh to do that prior to last season?) but he skates well and has a good brain and a nice wrist shot. I think he'll be offensively comparable to Stralman.
@DP_Snotty Here's the entire College hockey TV schedule http://collegehockeyinc.com/tv-schedule
@Hotfreak @AnnoyingJoe @Herman_NYRBlog @BringBackBeukeboom I have no problem with people discussing aspects of the article, or disagreeing with them outright. That's not what he was doing. You know it.
5 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@BringBackBeukeboom If you don't like my writing style, then you're entitled to not click on my articles. It's nor overly complicated. Just because you're not a fan of it doesn't give you the right to make ad hominem attacks and draw conclusions about me without having actually gotten to know who I am.
@rangermom @Hotfreak You want the Rangers to completely ignore a potential offensive breakout and instead cover the slot while they own the puck in case the defenseman with the puck happens to make a play that most Bantam players know to avoid?
5 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/islanders-6-rangers-3.html
@scrangersfan As I said at the bottom, this very obviously is not Hank at his best. He's not letting in softies, though. These are brutal defensive breakdowns. He's not a concern. You know he'll get it together very soon and on his own accord. Can't say the same about the defense right now.
@J_CKfor30 I think stating that Kostka shouldn't have been put on the 2nd-pairing against the Tavares line adequately highlights the poor decision made by Vigneault tonight.
@FrankCerbone I'm sure you have mounds of evidence to support this claim.
5 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@IhaveawaiteratMSG We're not exactly bubbling with cap space, either. Don't know what player they'd be willing to move that we could fit and would benefit us.
5 months, 4 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/projecting-the-rangers-opening-night-roster-attempt-one.html
@JMK8363 Thanks for pointing this out. Fixed.
6 months ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@shishya100 To add to this, Evgeny Kuznetsov was even more hyped than Buchnevich currently is and was making about $3.75M in the KHL. He dropped that to sign an ELC with the Capitals. I don't know what Buchnevich is making right now but it's certainly well below that. Most of these guys want to come to North America.
6 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/uncategorized/prospect-update-pavel-buchnevich-scores-twice-is-on-the-rise-video.html
@shishya100 Yes. Will that deter him? Who knows. Like in real life, everyone has different priorities. What the Rangers can offer him in lieu of the straight up paycheck is a higher quality of life, better training facilities, better travel, playing at a higher level, etc.
Buchnevich attended the draft in 2012 and he attended the Rangers' summer prospect camp. Gordie Clark has said from the very beginning that the unofficial agreement the two sides came to is that Buchnevich would stay until his contract expires at the end of this season and then he'll likely come to North America. There are no promises, but all signs point to him prioritizing the NHL.
@KevinTheNYRBlog Article in three weeks: "SOURCE: Intoxicated Kevin DeLury Bets $5K on Ron Greschner winning 2015 Norris Trophy."
7 months ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@Josh-CK The arena is scheduled to be finished sometime in 2016. I'd bank on the 2017 season being the target; at least from Las Vegas' perspective.
@Josh-CK Miller is a high-octane banger while Hayes is a bit slower and more methodical. Both can play wing or center. There's room for both to make the team if they both earn it.
7 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/report-kevin-hayes-has-signed-with-the-new-york-rangers.html
@Scott from SEC 224 @Herman_NYRBlog @G Ryan Graves, when sent back down to the QMJHL, comes off the books. Puts them back at 50.
@gravey94 I don't really know what you've been expecting from Miller this far. He turned 21 in March and would have been a junior in college last season. The vast majority of hockey players have not "lit the world on fire" at that point. In fact, majority haven't even played more than five NHL games.
@G John Moore will be #50.
@Sniper Turcotte Good catch, thanks.
7 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/report-rangers-avalanche-have-inside-track-on-fa-kevin-hayes.html
Over the last two seasons, Derek Stepan is 16th among NHL centers in PPG (minimum 80 GP). That's ahead of Patrice Bergeron, Ryna O'Reilly, Paul Stastny, Jeff Carter, and Nazem Kadri. He already is a 1st-line center and now at 24 years old he's only going to get better. I disagree with the complaints about Rick Nash, but I at least understand the source of them. When it comes to Stepan, I have no idea what anyone who thinks he's not a 1st-line center is looking at.
7 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@TerrieMacklin If this is true, then that's fantastic. However it appears that it's at least partially devolving into, "here's some ice on my head. Support ALS awareness, guys!" Again, though, even mentioning it will hopefully lead to people googling it and learning about it.
7 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
For those who aren't soccer fans, that chip shot was ridiculously good.
7 months, 4 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@JamesLaker1 I must have missed the memo that hitting men for "running their mouths" is somehow acceptable.
8 months ago on Conversation @ http://awfulannouncing.com/2014/espns-worst-nightmare-has-come-to-life.html
@SmellyKisio Average. $5M cap hit until 2019.
8 months ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/2014-articles/rangers-sign-brassard-to-five-year-deal.html
@NYRblogneill Yeah, fixed that. Oops.
Terrible article that doesn't even address the important questions. What the hell is going on in that framed picture behind Zuccarello? Who is that person he is with? Which Old Navy catalog were those stills taken for? Also, why the hell is the Swiffer not stored in a closet somewhere?
8 months ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog Nope, you just called me "not that pithy."
8 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog Not very good. You separated two independent clauses with a comma and no transitional word.
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog *you're
You'd only need to sell 6,495 article spots to people who want to whine about the Rangers not being big enough. Come on, Kevin. Let's do it and buy the ultimate bachelor pad!
@jslnyr1102 If Staal gets $5.5M, then he, Girardi, and McD would combine for a $15.7M cap hit. Keith, Seabrook, and Hjalmarsson combine for about $15.45M, and that's with a lower salary cap than what will exist next year. Clearly, you can pay 3 defensemen that kind of money while still being a well-rounded, contending team.
@EHBIGAPPLE The Knicks and Rangers are, for many obvious reasons, in very difference places. Phil Jackson is pretty much retaining Carmelo and aside from that starting from scratch. The Rangers, though maybe not perfect, have been a pretty finely tuned machine for years now. Sather has been President and GM forever, Gordie Clark has been head amateur scout for almost a decade now, and Schoenfeld and Gorton have been the right-hand men for Sather for some time as well. I get the sense that, within the Rangers' organization, everyone is pretty much on the same page in terms of what to look for in prospects. They like guys who can skate. They like guys who have a good hockey IQ and aren't one-dimensional. I think, more than many teams, they place a strong emphasis on mental makeup and character; guys like McIlrath, Kreider, and Stepan were praised for their work ethics and attitude when they were drafted, and I can't remember the last time they took a gamble on someone with red flags, such as a Josh Ho Sang or Kirril Kabanov. A big reason they supposedly got rid of Ethan Werek, their 2009 2nd-round pick, was because they weren't enthralled with how he carried himself. They moved him for Oscar Lindberg, who is the consummate professional. When talking to players and other people working in hockey, the message is pretty clear: The Rangers are as good as any organization when it comes to working with its prospects and giving them whatever they need to be successful. Despite his faults, a big credit has to go to owner James Dolan, who cuts no costs in helping make that happen.
@(Blank) McDonqvist Cristoval Nieves' mother arbitrarily started calling him "Buggaboo" as a child. It eventually got shortened to "Boo" and stuck. Based on Danny Kristo's twitter history, it appears he prefers burritos to tacos. Thus, soft shell seems to be his preference. Those are two of your questions answered. I'll work on the rest later.
@betweentheworlds North Americans are first draft eligible at 17-18 and remain eligible until 20. After that, they become free agents. Mat Bodie is 24. Most players don't break into the NHL until around 23. For goaltenders and defensemen specifically, you're looking at an even later peak. That means that, on average, you're looking at about 4-5 years from draft date that these guys will theoretically be ready for the NHL. A lot can happen in that time. At 17-18, most kids are still developing both physically and mentally. It's impossible to predict with 100% accuracy how they will develop. When drafting players, you're not drafting based on what they are at 17 or 18; you're drafting based on what you think they might become in five years. That's why a guy like Keegan Iverson, who had 40 points in the WHL, goes in the 3rd round while Luke Philp, who had 77, went undrafted. It's largely a guessing game. There's a reason why only about 53% of first-round picks play so much as 200 games in the NHL, and that numbers shoots all the way down to about 20% by the late second round. Obviously, if 5 years ago NHL scouts knew that Mat Bodie would turn into the player he is now,then he would not have gone undrafted.
@GiveGartneraCup Appreciate it! Definitely a lot of work but I think it's worth it.
@Josh-CK As I tweeted, somewhere between Allen and Skjei.
@Josh-CK I have them as pretty even. The difference for me was that defensemen are a bigger commodity than centers. I could see justifications for rating Lindberg as high as #2 on this list.
@KevinTheNYRBlog I think this was largely based on reputation than merit. Where did the reputation come from? I don't really know. He looked good when he started with Hartford and I think that just carried over despite him not doing much over the last two seasons.
@Josh-CK Since 2000, only 10 goaltenders at the age of 21 have made at least 15 NHL starts. That number falls to eight if you make it 20 NHL starts, which is around what the Rangers would want from their backup. I'm not going to say he absolutely won't be ready, because it's possible. Just very doubtful. In any case, if Skapski does play well this season, then I'm sure the Rangers would prefer he get 55-60 starts in Hartford, anyway, to develop him. Goaltenders take a long time to develop. I don't think Skapski is realistically looking at the NHL until the 2016-2017 season.
@allagash @Herman_NYRBlog @Dgimbz Another good point, but again; this is something that has been accounted for! People who have put in the grunt work have found that, over long stretches of time, the impact of shot "quality" is very minor. Here's a very good article on it by Eric T, who is basically the Bill Nye of hockey statistics.
http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2013/12/12/5114366/nhl-stats-shot-quality-player-evaluationFYI: There are stats that account for where shifts start and who else is on the ice. They are called "Zone Start %" and "Quality of Teammate/Quality of Competition." You can find those numbers on extraskater.com. Obviously, they need to be taken into account as well. A player with a 45% Corsi but starts 50% in the defensive zone is clearly not the same as a 45% Corsi who starts in the defensive zone only 20% of the time. These are things taken into account.
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog @Josh-CK Clearly not. Can you remember an instance in which Sean Avery stopped being Sean Avery because of being punched? How about Chris Neil? Donald Brashear?
8 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://nyrangersblog.com/
@Dgimbz @Herman_NYRBlog I don't think anyone in the stats community has ever stated that Corsi is the only metric that matters and is infallible. There are plenty of other factors that matter. Just like there are plenty of other factors that contribute to health, such as genetics, environment, eating habits, etc. That doesn't somehow negate the fact that smoking is in itself a severely influential factor in how long you might live. The point isn't that signing a bad Corsi player automatically dooms you. It's that it's very likely to.
@Bring back Langdon @Herman_NYRBlog @Josh-CK Here's one study done of many. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7675572