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Stats do mean something... they're indictors but should be complemented with observation. Butler was ranked high last year as a CB but it was primarily due to his bloated INT's vs limited playtime. It's like my van getting 60 miles per gallon(trip computer) when driving down a mountain. When I reach the bottom those numbers eventually level out. The same thing goes for bad play.. to use the van analogy, if I idle my car for 30 minutes I'm getting 0mpg and it takes a while for the average to go UP. The more you play, the more accurate the numbers as the extremes tend to balance out. But for equations like PFF? I have no use for it.
1 year, 4 months ago on Initial Reactions: Bills beat Colts 44-20
smonroe Hate PFF... watch game tape, don't look at stats. If you're good at all at math you realize that numbers can be misleading, they are an indicator but one bad play can scew the numbers. Football isn't played on numbers, it's on the field. This isn't a video game, it's pro football.
Comment on Colts. This is a new season, just because a team was outscored last year doesn't mean that it will happen this year, same for turnover differential. They had a new QB, and a new Defensive and Offensive schemes. They gave up most those point differentials in 3 games. Chicago(week one) Jets(week 6) and New England(most those point were off turnovers). After than NE loss, they won 5 of he next 6, splitting game with Houston, and winning the final game by 12 against a Texans team that needed that win to secure a first round bye. This was with the worse offensive line in the NFL and a defensive line that was pretty much just free agents picked up off the street mid season. Watching late in the season, I saw names like Heard and Guy starting, names that weren't even on the roster week 8, and they still managed to win 5 of their last 6! Was it an easy schedule? Sure. but they still beat Houston rather convincingly late with playoff position on the line. Luck looks to be a QB that plays his best with the game on the line. With a MUCH stronger defensive line and Defensive backfield, a stronger running game, and a stronger OL, I can't imagine them not winning 10 games with this schedule. Biggest concern to me is how bad Allen's foot injury is. Also, a new offensive scheme, and the first 'real' full year under Pagano. The Colts locker room atmosphere has a family feel to it, and that means something. It's a class organization who prioritized the right way. They get players who work in their system, they make decision to make their team stronger, not getting players to make the media or players happy. I fully expect them to win a playoff game this year and be one of the top 5 teams for 2014. Remember, in 2011, the 49ers were given no shot.... and they fears regression last year. They dropped in record but made the Super Bowl. At the beginning of 2011, people said the 49ers had a weak roster, and in 2013, people are saying it's the deepest team in the NFL. That's how fast things can turn around when you gave the right organization. I'm not calling the Colts the 49ers, they are not, but I am saying that attitudes change quickly once the games are actually played. Also the case of the Giants, both their recent Super Bowls came from 9-7 seasons, so even if the Colts regress in record, it doesn't mean they can't go far in the playoffs.
1 year, 4 months ago on Conversation @ http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/NFP-preseason-power-rankings.html
What's more is that they are influenced/blinded by trends, and some just say crazy things because saying what everyone else is saying doesn't 'stand out' or start a discussion(Skip Bayless)
1 year, 5 months ago on Finding the Colts' Strengths and Weaknesses: Defense
Talking heads are just that. Often times they're less informed than you and I.
Comment: I can't stand the PFF. It's often said there are three types of lies, Lies, More Lies, and Statistics. My Statistics profesor used to say it all the time, and it's been used for a long time and there is a reason(Mark Twain often used this quote). In this case, Football is played on the field. Numbers are scewed, one of the reasons that Toler had a high rating is because he didn't play a lot, and our middle LB got low grades because they weren't asked to rush the passer and Conner and Sheppard had high grades because they didn't play on pass rushing downs! While it can be used as an indicator, it should not factor into decision making. Football is played on the field, not in a stat book. If you build a team around PFF numbers you're going to struggle like the Redskins have done under Snyder. The reason why Andrew Luck's passing completion rating was low was because we did NOT dink and dunk, no on in the league attempted more passed of more than 20 yards than Luck. It's easy to get low INT's and High completion percentage if you're not taking chances, yes he led an NFL season record 7 4th quarter comebacks? Yes, that's a tie of the all time record. Gut and making plays when it counts are what wins football games, not what the PFF says. A couple years back, I made a bet with a friend that the 49ers would win 10 games, even 49er fans bet against me, they won 13. They're arguments?Talent that doesn't produce, look at the stats! Then they point to Harbaugh having not coached in the NFL. In two years they went from the team with no talent to playing in the Super Bowl and much of this same 'ho hum' talent is considered top notch. What I will say from watching the team? We had a horrible offensive line, It's was painfully obvious, we couldn't pass or run block. On defense, we had trouble up front, but keep in mind that we were pulling in free agents off the street to play DL. We really struggled at producing turnovers, and yes the pass rush was weak, as was the DL consistency(see comment about who was playing on the DL). We had trouble sustaining drives, and I attribute that to Arians dislike for dink and dunk, if it's 3rd and 5, don't sent all your receivers out 15 yards! This also kept Luck running for his life as he had to hold onto the ball longer. I'm not deluded to think we're going to be the best team in the league, but you never know what could happen if the team gets hot late in the season.