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@Starbonell @donnypump 

If Eli outscores Cam I'll wear a pink Eli Manning jersey, if Cam outscores Eli you wear a pink Cam Newton jersey.  A clear photo must be taken as proof and posted to the website and/or facebook.  I was also thinking about loser shaves an eyebrow but work might frown upon that...

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://sonsofroto.com/

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Chris you know I love ya and you get props for being bold but damn your Cam Newton ranking is crazy, Eli and Dalton ahead of him?  Are his WR's this year, Benjamin, Cotchery and Avant, dramatically worse than last year's (Smith, Ginn and Lafell)?  Newton's ankle bothered him intermittently throughout the 2013 season and he did just fine on the ground, with surgical correction he might actually be better off health wise; he's not going to suddenly stop running or lose his goal line job.  He's never finished outside the top 5 fantasy QB's in any year of his career, and even if you expect a dropoff there's no way he drops all the way to 18 unless he misses multiple games. 


We should get some sort of prop bet going out of this, I'll take Cam and you take Eli, most fantasy points end of season wins...

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://sonsofroto.com/

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@CollegeWolf For that price I'd love him too.  I just don't love him in the late first or early 2nd round with the giant screw in his foot.

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://sonsofroto.com/

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@TreyThompson So because Braun doesn't look like a roid monkey means he isn't?  Roids aren't simply for building bulk - they allow athletes to bounce back quicker from workouts and thus train harder .  Baseball season is long and grueling, having some extra "juice" will allow you to handle the day to day grind of the season better.  Soreness, fatigue, etc. will be reduced, which almost certainly helps performance.  We simply don't know how long Braun was using or how much it helped him.  I'm sure he's a great baseball player without them, but I wouldn't be so quick to discredit the potential advantages he gained while using.


You're right about the thumb, it was a non-issue in the offseason but now that it's back, sell sell sell.  3 bombs last night?  SELL.  Of course intelligent owners know to stay away so you probably have to hold and hope...

6 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://sonsofroto.com/

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That is one hell of a cheat sheet, impressive work man. I can't believe you've got Bryce Harper that low though, I think this the year he and Strasburg fully arrive.

7 months, 1 week ago on Fantasy Baseball 2014 Cheat Sheet

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@CollegeWolf Absolutely, take the discount and run

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Don's DDNTL: Manny Machado

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@Yaomiiiing 17th round?  STEAL

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Don's DDNTL: Manny Machado

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@TreyThompson Sorry for the confusion, "DDNTL" is the name of the series, and as alluded to in the intro some players get a spot on my "list" and some do not.  Addressing injured players I DO trust is just as valuable as addressing those I DON'T.  There will be 20+ players addressed when all is said and done, and I assure you that half of them I'm not trusting.


As for the "Don's Don's Do Not Trust List", I didn't notice it until now but I can't really argue with you there; it's a bit redundant and silly.  Hopefully seeing my name twice didn't distract you from reading the content of the piece, which is the part that matters.  Good thing I'm a physical therapist and not a writer!

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Don's DDNTL: Manny Machado

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@CollegeWolf Well when you consider he's being draft around the likes of Dunn, Howard, Hart, Lind and Reynolds, I'd feel pretty comfortable with Teixeira in that group (Lind the only guy I'd rather have).  Just saying, the price is low here...

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Don's DDNTL: Mark Teixeira

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@CollegeWolf I'd be tempted at a 5th round price tag, I think he holds up physically...

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Don's DDNTL: Justin Verlander

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What's your take on Ridley? Am I delusional for thinking he might have a chance to turn it around with Blount's blunders and Gronk and Amendola returning (keeping defenses honest)? Buy low or jump ship? If you had to start one guy from that backfield would you roll with Ridley or Bolden?

1 year ago on NFL Real Talk: Week Six

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He's been "resting up" since May, almost 3 months! I understand the attraction, he's been a stud the last 3 years. There's just no way I could sink a Top 5 pick on a RB with a legitimate chance of missing Week 1, if not more, who I also MUST handcuff (and overspend to do so). You'll have to take Tate a round earlier (snake) or watch your league mates bid you up in an auction and you'll have to pay up. I want way more security with that sort of investment. No thanks!

1 year, 2 months ago on Don's DDNTL: Arian Foster

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@CollegeWolf Yep, he's still risky as I pointed out, smallish guy with sometimes reckless style of play who will be getting a lot of throws over the middle.  His past injuries shouldn't have lingering effects on him this year though, and that makes him less risky than he's perceived to be.

1 year, 2 months ago on Don's DDNTL: Danny Amendola

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What's with the Forte hate MDS, he might even get goal line chances this year looks like a nice guy to target.  Pretty low on Bush too, which I'm assuming is for a standard league, he looks like PPR gold this year.  Lacy looks likely to get goal line carries and at least the lion's share of the carries (in a pass happy offense) in GB, why you so low on him Chris?

1 year, 2 months ago on Fantasy Football 2013: RB Ranks

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Would love to read a "Dissenting Opinions" column or addition to explain some of the players you guys clearly disagree about.  Fitzgerald, Cobb, Nelson, Amendola, Bowe, Hilton, J. Jones (among others)...you guys have vastly different rankings on those players and would be interesting to see the reasoning.

1 year, 2 months ago on Fantasy Football 2013: QB Ranks

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@CollegeWolf There are similarly tiered TE's who are lesser health risks, that is true, but not many of them have the potential to be an elite option like Davis has.  The fact that there is so much back-end depth at TE this year makes taking a "risk" on Davis (a low cost risk at that) even more appealing - there's a good chance if he flames out you'll have fall back options at your disposal.

1 year, 2 months ago on Don's DDNTL: Fred Davis

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...and right on cue Charles goes down with a foot injury.  Pay close attention to this over the next few days.  If you're drafting and he's yet to return to practice, I'd let him pass.  If he's able to return to practice in the next few days he should be ok.  If they shelve him for the rest of the preseason, be very wary!

1 year, 2 months ago on Don's DDNTL: Maurice Jones-Drew

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Sandusky touched my Vick

1 year, 3 months ago on Funniest Fantasy Football Team Names: 2013

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I think you're selling Panda short, I'd slot him #6. He'll put up the same numbers as ARam (who's equally injury prone) if not better and he's younger. Alvarez is a 1 trick pony and Lawrie can't stay on the field. You can't dock Sandoval for health and not do the same for Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, Ramirez or Lawrie, all of whom carry similar risk. If he plays close to a full season there aren't more than 5 other 3b's I'd take ahead of him. Where would you slot Trumbo? He's 3B eligible in Yahoo! Leagues.

1 year, 7 months ago on Fantasy Baseball 2013: Tiers, Not Fears (Third Base)

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I know he didn't run much out of the 8 spot last year but I think 10 steals for Simmons hitting leadoff in Atlanta seems low.  He's stolen 26 before in the minors and I think he could flirt with 20 if he sticks atop the lineup all year (Bill James projects 18).  Freddi likes to run, and given the kid's athleticism he should be able to steal bases more effectively and I'd expect him to improve his SB % with some added experience.  Add in a solid BA, a few HR's and a boatload of runs hitting in front of a formidable Atlanta lineup and he could be Derek Jeter-lite with more steals...but at a vastly reduced cost. 

1 year, 7 months ago on 2013 Rankings and Projections: SS

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SS blows dude no doubt about it.  I'd go so far as to say that if you don't land anyone in the top 5 you might as well wait until late to grab someone.  I don't see much of a difference between a Jeter or Andrus than a Segura or Lowrie except name recognition.  I'd rather wait and take a chance on those lesser known guys and if they fall flat, well, there will be half a dozen other guys on waivers to turn to.  You'll have to pass on some productive players at other positions to land anyone 6-11 here, don't think they're worth it.

1 year, 7 months ago on Fantasy Baseball 2013: Tiers, Not Fears (Shortstop)

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@CollegeWolf You could easily argue for him at #4 overall. I have him #6 on my board (I'd take the Big 3 along with Pujols and Votto ahead of him). Cano's stats might be slightly less than some of his fellow first rounders (and the Yankees lineup isn't pretty right now) but he's so consistent and durable at the incredibly thin 2B position that I think he's worth it.

1 year, 7 months ago on Fantasy Baseball 2013: Tiers, Not Fears (Second Base)

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I think Matt Carpenter could go from "Fuck My Life" to "I'll probably regret this" in short order if he get's the starting 2B job and everyday AB's. Of course I haven't examined his batted ball (pause) profile as closely as you so perhaps I'm mistaken here. For what it's worth Utley has said he's feeling better than he has in years, might be worth his relatively low price tag for the early part of the season. If he produces early on he'd be nice trade bait before his legs fall off by the All Star Break...

1 year, 7 months ago on Fantasy Baseball 2013: Tiers, Not Fears (Second Base)

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*conscience* not conscious...I have a doctorate...seriously...

1 year, 7 months ago on 2013 Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Don’s Do-Not-Trust List ©

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Tulo is a risk, he's entering the season healthy but as I stated above, he's only played 2 full seasons out of 6 and I can't recommend him in good conscious. If you're a gambling man and want a leg up on the competition at SS then go for it. For me I think I'd rather take Bautista/Stanton at 11 and follow it up with Beltre/Wright at 14, but I'm also the kind of guy who typically scrap heaps his middle infielders and loads up elsewhere. The stats you'd get from any of those guys will be equivalent or better than a healthy Tulo and there's less risk. Position scarcity obviously sides with Tulo but I'm finding that while there's lots of depth at OF, the TOP END depth isn't as great as you'd think and I'd want to be sure I land one of the top 10-12 guys and preferably 2 of the top 20. I couldn't fault you for going Tulo with either Bautista, Stanton or Beltre, looks nice on paper, but Tulo is very risky. I wouldn't take one of the big pitchers here either, it's simply too soon to gamble on the most injury prone position in baseball.

1 year, 7 months ago on 2013 Fantasy Baseball Injury Report: Don’s Do-Not-Trust List ©

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Great work man. People are scared of Trumbo after he fell apart in the 2nd half, but he also was dealing with nagging injuries. Healthy and hitting in the middle of a loaded lineup has me optimistic, not sure #7 optimistic, but top 10 certainly in reach. I'm partial to AGon ahead of Trumbo and Ike simply due to consistency - even his down years result in 100 RBI's, .300+ and descent HR/R. I would avoid both Papi and Tex - heel injuries almost always recur (Papi), and Tex's wrist is similar to Bautista last year, meaning he will be at risk all year.

1 year, 7 months ago on Fantasy Baseball 2013: Tiers, Not Fears (First Base)

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You PA method of setting a baseline certainly makes sense, and I agree tiers are the best way to approach any style draft really.  I'm liking Goldy quite a bit this year, AGonz too at their going rates.

 

No arguments with most of these rankings, I'd knock Big Papi's numbers down (achilles' tendonitis/heel spurs are chronic, his age and size only make it worse) and I'm skeptical Tex hits that many HR's - his wrist injury is similar to Bautista's last year, wouldn't surprise me if the power isn't as good and/or he reinjures.

 

Is it sad as a Twins fan that .272 with 25HR's has me excited about Morneau?  Maybe we get 70 wins this year!

1 year, 7 months ago on 1B Projections and Rankings

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Killer work as always!  I'm curious how you derive the plate appearance numbers.  I would think a guy like Allen Craig who's hurt all the time should be expected to see fewer PA's than healthier options like Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman or Ike Davis regardless of lineup spot...right?

1 year, 7 months ago on 1B Projections and Rankings

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 @andrewakamds I think I read somewhere that the Red Sox have more interleague games in NL parks than any other AL team this year.  They started Big Papi at 1B in that spot last year, that could cost Nap Smear some AB's too I would think.  I'd put the over/under at 120 games and hope for the over.  I mean if he has a hip replacement now he might be back by September...

1 year, 7 months ago on Fantasy Baseball 2013: Tiers, Not Fears (Catcher)

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 @andrewakamds   Let's set the record straight here fellas:  There's no cure for AVN except surgery to replace the joint in question.  The severity of symptoms can vary - the effects aren't the same with every patient either.  Favre was addicted to pain killers for half his career and was freaky in his injury avoidance, he's simply not a good comparison.  Napoli's AVN is in his hips, meaning every step he takes, every swing, every slide, anything where he'll bear weight...all these things put stress on the hip joint.  Medications, strengthening the supporting muscles of the hip and reducing joint forces are how it's managed conservatively.  He might be pain free now, but let's see what happens when he's playing every day.  Napoli's not what you call a fit and trim guy either, the excess weight increases joint pressures which will make him more susceptible to flare ups or even compression fractures with impact activity.  It's literally a matter of time before his symptoms return, and it's not just the games he might miss that's problematic but also the performance hit should he play through pain.  If his hips are killing him it will sap his power as he'll be unable to use his legs to help generate swing torque.  He's not exactly coming off a banner year either as he dealt with often chronic quad issues in 2012 that could easily resurface.  At his current price II'll endorse the value, I think he could be healthy just long enough to generate a top 10 season at the catcher position.  But let's be clear:  he's a huge injury risk, and I highly doubt he appears in 145 games.

1 year, 7 months ago on Fantasy Baseball 2013: Tiers, Not Fears (Catcher)

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Barring injury I'd expect him to get more AB's, I haven't heard anything to suggest he's not the everyday catcher.  I guess your projection doesn't really trash him or anything, I think he'll get a few more AB's and thus a few more counting stats across the board.  Personally I don't think I would draft anyone after Miguel Montero ahead of Perez, but I'm half crazy so...

1 year, 7 months ago on 2013 Rankings and Projections: Catcher | Baseball | Articles

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You don't appear as high on Sal Perez as most, lower AB projection here too, not drinking the Kool-Aid?

1 year, 7 months ago on 2013 Rankings and Projections: Catcher | Baseball | Articles

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I also agree and would say that you're too generous. I think he'll top out around 20HRs, and his added bulk is a bit of a concern both on the bases (his best fantasy asset) and in the training room - his hard nosed style and added weight up the injury risk too!

1 year, 7 months ago on How to Catch a Boot: Trolling for Trout

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 @andrewakamds Thanks for doing the heavy lifting for me, I'll let somebody else have him.

1 year, 7 months ago on SP Projection Notes

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I've seen a lot of love on the Homer Bailey front this draft season.  Humor me with a projection?  Ricky Romero was terrible last year but hurt, I think he's healthy again, what's your take on him?

1 year, 7 months ago on SP Projection Notes

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That's a lot of innings for peg-leg Kershaw... Welcome back

1 year, 8 months ago on Projecting All Over You: SP

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@CollegeWolf Still early man, chance both guys end up fine...maybe...

2 years, 1 month ago on Fantasy Football: Fred Jackson Injury (With A Side Of Garcon) | Football

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 @drummer412

Foster enters the season with no immediate health concerns.  He had hamstring issues last season (and a minor foot injury kept him out of the Pro Bowl) but I haven't read anything about any lingering health issues entering the 2012 season.  The Texan seem confident too, signing Foster to a big money contract this offseason.

 

Given Foster's hamstring problems last season and the relatively clean bills of health for McCoy and Rice, I guess you could call Foster the riskiest of the three.  I don't think Foster's injury risk is significantly more than any other NFL RB, so if you think he's the #1 pick I wouldn't knock him from that perch based on health.  For what it's worth I have Foster behind both Rice and McCoy on my RB cheat sheet because of the presence of Ben Tate.  Tate can flat out play and I expect him to have a role whether Foster's healthy or not, not to mention the 7th or 8th round pick you MUST use on him.

2 years, 2 months ago on Fantasy Football: Don's Do-Not-Trust List 2012 | Football

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 @Will from NY 

Charles will be a full year removed from surgery when the season begins, so he'll be starting from Week 1 probably 90%, moving towards fully recovered by perhaps mid season.  AP, by comparison, will be mere 9 months removed at the start of the season, and I don't think he'll be fully recovered until late this season or next season.  Again, history provides very strong supporting evidence that both backs will likely see a drop-off in production.  Charles, IMO, will be the better bet physically.

 

Colston makes the list due to his extensive injury and surgical history, particularly his knees.  He's had microfracture procedures on both his knees and isn't exactly a spring chicken anymore.  He may appear healthy on the surface but there's definite risk with him.

 

Maclin and Harvin make the list simply because of concerns I have about conditions they've dealt with in the recent past (Migraines with Harvin, "inflammatory virus" with Maclin).  These are not orthopedic injuries with definitive timelines or outcomes.  Much like with concussions, the recovery time and possible recurrence of symptoms is hard to predict, and therefore I put them on my list.  On a side note, I like both of them entering drafts this year as long as Maclin's hamstring issue is indeed as minor as it appears.

 

DJax could be a candidate for my list, concussion history is never something you like to see, but entering drafts this year I find Maclin slightly more risky from a health perspective with the mystery illness and now hamstring issue.  Besides, this is football, we can't put every single player who's had injuries on the list or it'd be 300 players long.  Compared to Miles Austin, Maclin, Harvin and DJax are all less risky from a health standpoint.

 

 

2 years, 2 months ago on Fantasy Football: Don's Do-Not-Trust List 2012 | Football

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@CollegeWolf He's healthy...for now

2 years, 2 months ago on Fantasy Football: Don's Do-Not-Trust List 2012 | Football

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What do you think of Drew Smyly? I feel like a dope dropping Bass for him, but hindsight is 20-20 and Smyly did just impressively shut down Texas and NYY. Future real talk?

2 years, 5 months ago on MLB Real Talk: 4/24/12 | Baseball

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Gio is probably the better bargain and will likely provide a better return on investment, per Mock Draft Central he's currently going 30th among SP (# 108 overall), over 30 picks later than MadBum (20th SP, #75 overall).  Both players should outperform their draft spots, and I'd love to own both of them.

 

If the price is the same and it's just a matter of picking who's the better pitcher to own, give me Bumgarner all day and I don't think it's that close.  I think he finishes the year as a top 10 fantasy SP and will give Timmy stiff competition for best pitcher in SF.

2 years, 6 months ago on Beef: The Series (Madison Bumgarner vs. Gio Gonzalez) | March

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 @Andrew132435 With the exception of 2010, Weeks has missed significant time every season of his career due to injury.  To argue that Weeks missing time is the reason his counting stats are lower is technically true, it's for that very reason that he's a bust candidate - guy is a perennial health risk.  I personally agree with you in that I don't necessarily think he's a bust this year however.  Moving down in the lineup could boost his HR/RBI production (reducing his SB and R production however) but it will also reduce his injury risk as he'll get a few less AB's and likely be asked to run a bit less.  A healthy Weeks is a good player, but his injury history makes him tough to rely on.

 

If you read the tagged piece on Hosmer, he's not saying he's a bad player by any means.  He's merely questioning the power potential of a guy who hasn't  shown to be a huge power threat at nearly every step of his career.  One great 2nd half doesn't mean he's got it all figured out yet.  Guy is already a good hitter, but will he provide the power stats you want out of  your fantasy 1B?  Debatable. 

2 years, 7 months ago on 2012 Fantasy Baseball Busts: Position-By-Position | March

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Soria is screwed, damage to the UCL is never good. Broxton is healthy, has been an elite closer before and has impressed his new manager already. My money is on the big man getting first crack at the 9th

2 years, 7 months ago on Tiers, Not Fears: Closers | March

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The Twins just signed Glen Perkins to a 3 year extension today complete with games finished incentives.  He was pretty solid as a setup guy last year.  I hate to say it as a Twins fan but I think they'll be out of it and looking to deal Capps.  I'm too lazy to look up Perk's peripherals but I'm fairly confident he's better than Capps. 

 

You touched on it when discussing Myers but one thing to remember is that closers make great real life trade chips too.  Hanrahan, Street, Capps, Myers, Soria, Farnsworth, Francisco, Perez, etc. could all potentially be dealt and become setup men. 

 

I'm with you on drafting a stable of closers, I won't pay for the elite guys but I'll usually walk away with 3 or 4 minimum depending on settings.

 

Great piece and props to you for a great series, you don't find rankings with player notes this extensive too often for free on the web.

2 years, 7 months ago on Tiers, Not Fears: Closers | March

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 @CollegeWolf I go Miggy, Bautista, Tulo, Pujols, Kemp as my top 5

2 years, 7 months ago on Tiers, Not Fears: Third Base | February

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When it comes to the number 1 overall player in the draft, I personally value consistent greatness. Cabrera provides just that, posting elite numbers and impressive durability, playing in 150+ games for EIGHT straight years. The dude is still only 28, he could actually improve. He was an early first rounder as a 1B, he's the #1 pick with 3B eligibility tacked on.

I agree with you 100% that Bautista is hands down the better fantasy player than Cabrera the last 2 years, his power is unmatched and he even steals a few bases. Anyone who thinks Joey Bats isn't worthy of the top overall pick is nuts, he's earned the right to be in the discussion. It's personal preference really but I think Cabrera is still the better pick. His floor production won't be too far off what Bautista provides, he hits for a higher average, he's got better lineup protection with Fielder hitting behind him and he's just a safer bet. I think Miggy will outpace Bautista in nearly every category except HR and SB, and frankly I think he'll be in shouting distance in the HR department. League format could change that of course, particularly if your league starts a shitload of OF, Joey Bats OF eligibility would boost him up there. It's close, but in most situations, I'm taking Miggy #1.

2 years, 8 months ago on Tiers, Not Fears: Third Base | February

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That's a lot of innings for Bard transitioning to the rotation for the first time since A ball. I'm sure Boston will protect its prized young arm, and I think an IP expectation similar to Neftali Feliz would be more likely.

I love this tier in general though, I'll own these guys all over the place, so many high K guys with upside. It wouldn't be a stretch for a lot of these guys to make the jump to elite status this season.

Ubaldo scares me a bit. There's no documented injury red flags that I've seen, but the guy lost 2 MPH on his fastball last year in his age 27 (allegedly) season. If he was 35 and losing steam on his heater I'd get it, but not when he's entering his physical prime. Could an injury be to blame perhaps? If he's healthy he has a bounce back year, I'm with you there, but don't overspend in case his arm blows up. Herky jerky throwing mechanics too.

2 years, 8 months ago on Starting Pitcher Rankings (21-40) | Baseball

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Great stuff as always. I'd drop the IP on Hudson though, he's coming off surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back and has a history of back trouble. He might not even pitch until May and may be limited to some extent all year.

2 years, 8 months ago on Starting Pitcher Rankings (41-60) | Baseball

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@CollegeWolf@Starbonell He should have dual eligibility yes, if not to start the season than shortly after once he's played the necessary games at 3rd. He's not a first round pick anymore, you can't trust his health and as Starbs pointed out his new ballpark and declining numbers don't scream first rounder. Hanley is as talented a player as you'll find, and if his shoulder doesn't limit him (I think it will) he can return a ton of value. But I personally am not reaching for him before the 3rd round, which means I will probably not own him anywhere in 2012.

2 years, 8 months ago on Tiers, Not Fears: Shortstop | February

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