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this is great, another fantastic read David.
I have to wonder how it's possible to mitigate the impact of having much better same-position alternatives on the same team has on this analysis.
In polak's case, when he isn't on the ice, that meant that Pietrangelo or Shattenkirk were on the ice. I would think that I would expect every single defenceman in the league with the exception of maybe doughty, keith, karlsson, and maybe chara and vlasic to have a negative impact on their teammates when the alternative is playing with pietrangelo.
I think we need to be cognizant of the fact that his teammates' CF stat when without him are basically their stats when playing with Pietrangelo and hattenkirk. Pietrangelo's chart on you site (same bubble chart as above for polak) is crazy lopsided towards indicating he has a strong positive impact on his teammates games.
To look at this objectively, especially when analyzing how someone's performance may impact a new team where pietrangelo isn't the alternative player but instead it's Franson or Gunnarson, then we need to account for the fact that it may not be Polak making hi teammates worse so much as it is Pietrangelo and shattenkirk making them better while polak does a fair job himself, but isn't one of the top d-men in the league like the other two.
shattenkirk is widely regarded as a good to very good defenceman, and even his chart looks lopsided, showing him bringing down the performance of his teammates, not as significantly as Polaks, but nonetheless, these charts may as well be called the "how do you compare to the best same-position-alternative player on your team" becase they are influenced equaly as much by your replacement player as they are by the analysis player.
I hope this all made some coherent sense, and I'm looking forward to hearing back on how this replacement player type issue can be tackled so we can objectively look at how a players WOWY's might be expected to change when he changes to a different team, as the beginning of this article states it may have given the leafs brass a second thought, but perhaps if the theory I stat above can be overcome then it may show that while Polak is certainly having a negative impact compared to pietrangelo/shattenkirk, what we're really looking for is will he have a positive or negative impact as compared to gunnarsson, thus defining the quality of the 1 for 1 trade.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on A WOWY Analysis Guide
Great post David! Looks like bozak put up a hell of a season. Top 6 A-per-60 in the league? Gives some credence to Burke/non is who have been touting how good bozak is/can be for a long time. Hopefully he can build on this, imagine if he even put up better numbers this year? He'd be approaching legit top line centre territory.
3 months ago on A look at Tyler Bozak’s improved 2013-14 Season
Just had a thought reading through everyone's comments, I see a lot of posters here assuming that because bozak doesn't make kessel better that he's no good. But I'd like to see more info before coming to a judgement (full disclosure - I'm a bozak supporter - in his play/effort/talent for his pay grade, not calling him joe Thornton here but he's good value IMO)
To really get a handle on how bozak impacts the team, we need a wowy for every player with bozak, not just kessel. Can he really be faulted for not making one of the best offensive players in the world better than he already is?
Food for thought: If he doesn't slow kessel down, and makes every single player he plays with apart from kessel better, then isn't that a better representation of value?
Not trying to steal your personal time here David but I'd love to see a qualified statistician like yourself discuss this point of view.
3 months, 1 week ago on Updated WOWY analysis of Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak
Great article, glad to have you aboard the MLHS family David. very concise and relevant, something all analytics articles should strive for. Looking forward to reading more.
I would throw in my opinion that bozak looked like different player this year and was good to very good, I hope and expect to see that continue next year
@wendelsfist @Sic_Transit_Gloria @Cameron19 i'm not saying I agree with my dad's theory, but you're arguing a straw man case here, making the argument out to be more encompassing than it is and then knock it down easily.
the idea isn't that every single player will not try to win if the coach is on a lame duck contract, but rather that everyone performs better when they are inspired, and being inspired by a guy you believe is about to leave is not a recipe for success. I'm sure the majority of players will give it their all no matter what, but I'm equally as sure that there are some players on the team who's character is not beyond reproach and would not buy in to the team's approach if they thought the coach would be gone anyways.
the leafs don't mind paying Carlisle for the next 3 years if it provides even a touch more buy-in from a subset of the team.
4 months ago on Wednesday Mashup: Dubas Mania
@Cameron19 @wendelsfist my dad's theory: the contract extension was just so that the players wouldn't have the excuse of not playing for a guy who's contracts up this year anyways
i.e. whether they're going to fire him if the team falters or if babcock becomes available they won't have a lame duck coach until then.
@Mind Bomb @Sic_Transit_Gloria morning bra!
@colino17 @.JVR. good point!
I like how we've definitely got 4 lines capable of scoring at least some goals, rather than last year where we had two scoring lines, and two energy lines (to a degree) and the fourth line was 100% useless at generating offence. Now no matter which line we have out there someone will be able to pot a goal here and there; not to mention being deeper allowing us to put out a first line that's rested enough to do damage more consistently and later in the year
@LeafsGuru @Sic_Transit_Gloria haha yeah that's a concern eh? his forwards look great, and I notice he has a few young guys in there that are probably his great late round pickups, but his goaltending (other than Rinne) is garbage! not sure if goalies are worth a lot in that pool, but the points for players don't count any PPA, PPG, or SH points so it's a little simpler than some. IN regards to the competition of the pool, it is very, very high, knowing a few of the guys involved, they are as mad about fantasy hockey as anyone on this board.
the team he won the fantasy title with during the lockout year:
just got his roster from last year, he finished 8th but apparently was not as interested as much in this cause the greyhounds were on a roll:
Morning Guys, been a while since I posted but I've been reading more of your guys opinions every day.
I wanted to comment on the Dubas signing cause I have a little information. 3 of my best friends from Highschool went to Fanshaw college where they were room mates with funny little guy named "Diddo", who happens to be one of Dubas' best friends from the Soo growing up.
While I've hung out with Diddo on multiple occasions and met Dubas once, 2 of my 3 buddies are very close with Diddo and also are friends with Dubas, I've been asking about the guy since we heard the news yesterday and what I've gotten back is this:
#1 is the guy is apparently an insanely hard worker, that's the first thing that came up talking to both guys. The 2nd thing is that while he is open to and used advanced stats to the degree he can for the greyhounds (not a lot of great record keeping in the OHL) he is not by any stretch of the imagination some kind of stats wiz, or even overly proficient in math. He's a smart guy who works his ass off and doesn't ignore advanced stats when they provide value.
It's been a little odd hearing how many outlets are running with some kind of moneyball/advanced stats/theo Epstein type story when it's just flat out entirely untrue. From what I've heard from his friends he is a great worker, a great judge of talent, has good ideas about how to combine grit (instead of just size) and skill, and stats fit in there somewhere but it's an appendix, not the title page
He is also apparently winning or contending almost every year in a very competitive keeper pool... I'm trying to see if I can get his fantasy team roster from my buddy, he won it 2 years ago.
@Axle_Goalie my guess is the Gorges trade was Gorges for Gleason, but gorges nixed it and so we had to buy out gleason on the last possible day to do so
4 months, 3 weeks ago on Maple Leafs’ Tim Gleason to be bought out
I'm trying to get this to work on my ipad, are you guys watching "stream1" or "LeafsTV"?
1 year, 2 months ago on GDT: Preseason Game #1 – Flyers at Maple Leafs (6 p.m., Leafs TV)
HELL YEAH! first game of the season!
anyone know a good streaming link to watch this one?
Thanks in advance.
that's interesting to hear. sometimes I watch the CBC games on mute because I can't stand how much leaf bashing goes on. Healy's colour commentary is making fun of the players, drives me nuts.
1 year, 2 months ago on No more talky
that is great outside the box thinking... I'm actually going to look into that... imagine being paid while watching leaf games with drunk people!
it's north Hamilton/west burlington
she's already got two... and if I get another myself then I won't even be home to watch the games streaming!
haha, are you in the waterdown area by any chance? we could be that guy together...
awesome, thanks for the info. HNIC will at least give me Saturday nights without issue, but those mid week games are all that keep me from killing myself all winter
amazing, that's what I needed to know, thanks brother.
I couldn't stand to miss even one game so i'd either be at my parents place 2-4 times a week or I'd become that guy by himself at the local bar who doesn't order anything and sits quietly in the corner but loses his mind if people don't shut up while the game is on.
you're not wrong...
boys I have a MAJOR problem I need help with. I'm moving this weekend and my girlfriend is making us cancel cable to save cash each month. The only thing I use cable for is leafs games.
so what I need to know before I debase myself and beg her to let me keep CBC, TSN, Sportsnet, and LeafsTV is how often can you find an online stream of the games? are most of them available or is it hit and miss?
1 year, 3 months ago on <!--:en-->Passion Re-Ignited<!--:-->
Seems like bollands PK time per game is under a minute? That doesn't sound like he was used a ton there... In the playoffs frolik and Kruger were there top PK guys
I had originally been under the impression that bellad was a defensive and therefore PK whiz, but perhaps that isn't the case?
1 year, 4 months ago on <!--:en-->Where does Dave Bolland fit in?<!--:-->
my internet searches seem to agree with you... now i can berate my colleague for the bad info, thanks.
1 year, 4 months ago on <!--:en-->Thursday Morning Mashup: Letang Prefers Toronto?<!--:-->
what? is that a change in the rules or something? I think the TSN guys were the ones to originate this approach for the leafs to acquire lecavalier... are you sure picking a player up on waivers doesn't mean splitting the cap hit? it's that how it used to be and still is? (i'm not talking about salary here, just cap hit)
man i'm on the opposite side of this fence than a lot of you fellas, clearly.
the leafs didn't get screwed, and i don't see any double standard whatsoever. they didn't say everyone but the leafs can do this, it applies to everyone... how are the leafs treated differently in any way at all?
all that happened is the league confirmed that cheating in this way would be punished. anyone familiar with the CBA and the past history of what happens when you deliberately circumvent the intention of the CBA (see: NJ-Kovalchuk) should have been able to reason on that this would be cheating the rules.
how is it a screw job when the league confirms that "no toronto, you don't get to cheat the CBA because you have more money" if anything it enforces that the leafs are treated the same as every other team, not worse.
some crazy thoughts going on here IMO
I couldn't agree more!! i know letang has his defensive deficiencies, almost everyone other than a couple players in the league do. but I can't get help but get blow-a-load-in-my-pants excited over the prospect of a defense corps that would look like:
with reilly and liles as the guys in and out of the lineup
I think that gives us as good or better a d-corps as any other championship contender out there, including chicago, SJ, Boston, nashville, LA, NYR
i think we might have to give up gunnar in the letang deal though... just a feeling.
yes you pay the entire salary (not an issue for the leafs) but you split the cap hit.
i agree!!! something big is coming! bernier was just the start!
One of my colleagues had an interesting take on the buyouts. He is saying that the process for compliance buyouts involves placing the player on waivers first... meaning toronto could pick lecavalier up on waivers before he can be bought out, leaving tampa with 50% of his cap hit and toronto with lecavalier for a cap hit of about 3.5 m. that's pretty solid... we could play him for a year and then buy him out.
so the question is, (if it's in the rules) would you use one of our compliance buyouts on lecavalier if it meant we could have him play for us for 1 year at the same cap hit as kuli/kadri have?
it's an interesting scenario...
cool, thanks for the correction.
you're entitled to your opinion, but there's a lot of misunderstanding the facts there I think. First, I'm not positive, but i think reddens buyout was just a regular buyout, not one of the two compliance buyouts? again i could be wrong there.
The deal with lecavalier and the leafs was clearly circumventing the cap for one important reason, that lecavalier would then resign in tampa. it wasn't that he couldnt be traded for the point of buying him out, it's that he wouldn't then be allowed to go back to tampa. If the league allowed this I think it'd be anarchy, every big money team would do it and it wouldn't be fair. the point of the cap and cba is to implement parity in a non-financial-parity league. that would ruin it. good call on the NHL i'd say, there has to be some integrity to these dealings
good morning boys.
I am getting absolutely giddy about the possibilities on the horizon. Burke and Nonis have set us up to take advantage of the coming FA/Trade/Draft storm than any other team in the league. who knows what could happen this weekend or over the next few weeks! Trading for letang to play with Dion, signing briere, weiss, or lecavalier, drafting a new potential impact player or moving up in the draft!
I AM PUMPED!!!!
more on topic....I would trade a package like Kulemin+Percy/Finn/Biggs/Leivo/D'Amigo/Colborne+our first this year for Letang, but I'm not sure I would go into two roster players, and I don't think I'd include franson, reilly, kadri, or gardiner. I don't think the upgrade letang offers is worth any of those players and a first round and a prospect/other player.
the one guy I hope hte leafs throw some money at in the off season is weiss, and I also wouldn't mind snapping up ference to play a depth role on the blueline if the price is right (get rid of liles somehow)
let's get excited boys!!!! it's going to be a hell of a draft weekend!!
(for the record I think we land letang at the draft!)
@Mind Bomb I think LA is going to win the cup, and i'm not sure if it'll be Pit or Bos they win it against.
Quick looks just like last year, and when your 2nd(!!) PK unit is Mike Richards and Jeff Carter.... that's hard to beat. maybe impossible.
1 year, 5 months ago on <!--:en-->Thursday Morning Mashup: Fancy Stats to the Rescue<!--:-->
I would definitely take a run at running some stats for MLSE if it ended up getting me a job in hockey operations... sounds like a dream come true!