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@Mattmark @Cameron19 NHL contracts trump AHL contracts. If another team signs him to an NHL contract, he's their property. He (officially) has nothing to do with the Leafs at the moment. For the Leafs to secure his rights, they'd have to sign him to an NHL contract.
2 days ago on Rookie Tournament Game #3: Maple Leafs vs. Penguins
More evidence of Carlyle's gross incompetence. MAYBE Shanahan can get him to change his "system", but probably not. And the personnel on defence aren't necessarily improved. I expect Rielly to be a legitimate top-4 Dman this season, but Robidas is still broken, Polak is just an average 3rd-pairing Dman, and if Phaneuf is forced to line up on the left side, his play will be negatively effected.
3 days, 1 hour ago on 10 Questions: Part 1 — Will Randy Carlyle Change?
Need a goal? Leivo it up to Josh.
Ugh. I hate myself. Lol.
5 days ago on Rookie Tournament Game #1: Maple Leafs vs. Blackhawks
@Loric76 @DWCMLHS I just thought of it. It isn't that creative, lol.
@Burtonboy @DWCMLHS @dlb Mad @FRyan So do I, and I'm very conservative when it comes to my expectations of players/prospects. I had Nylander ranked 4th, heading into the draft, and I think he was an absolute steal at #8.
5 days, 9 hours ago on Maple Leafs invite Henrik Tallinder and Brendan Mikkelson to training camp
@dlb Mad @FRyan Nylander skates and rushes the puck up ice like Kessel, and he dangles and passes the puck like P. Kane. If all goes well with his development, watch out. He has superstar potential.
I agree that he should be in the AHL this season, though. If he is dominant, he can always be called up. I don't see his size being an issue. He's a very elusive skater, and like Kessel, he won't take many big hits.
@Murph2417 I'm going to get it eventually. Just need to beef up my bank account a bit. Any other year, I would have just gotten it on day 1, regardless of whether it's the financially responsible thing to do or not. I'm just not as excited for the game this year.
1 week ago on Spencer Abbott signs one-year deal
@Savo43 @Murph2417 I have always bought the EA sports NHL games the day they came out. This year, that changed. Partly due to the missing features, partly due to losing my phone, and having to spend $400 getting a new one. I'm really pissed that they took so much out. They had two fucking years to make the game for the next-gen systems.
Phil @AlsoNamedPhil 4m
FTR though, laughing pretty hard that Nonis just wants Clarkson to go for 15 goals and hit people. He's an overpaid Matt Frattin.
1 week, 3 days ago on Sunday Mashup: ‘Legends Row’ a great gesture, ‘Fan Fest’ goes septic
@Loric76 And we still paid that much? Ugh.
@alex callis He has only produced points at a rate like that once: the year he scored 30 goals. He had a ridiculous shooting percentage that year, and was getting 1st unit PP time with Kovalchuk, Elias, Parise and Zidlicky. The odds of him putting up 54 points in Toronto are pretty damn slim. He won't even hit 40 unless he's on the 2nd line and 2nd PP unit all year. Even if he does play that role, he might not do it.
3 weeks, 5 days ago on Friday Mashup: Leiweke not long for Toronto
Kessel and Bozak having on-ice chemistry is - and always has been - a myth. Kessel makes Bozak better because he's elite. I bet everyone's numbers would be better with Kessel than without him, in the long run. Kessel will be great with anyone. I'd love to see what he could do with another player of his caliber, though. He has gotten to play with some good linemates, (Lupul and JVR), but nobody that comes anywhere close to his level. Not since Savard, at least.
1 month, 1 week ago on Updated WOWY analysis of Phil Kessel and Tyler Bozak
@Bruffins You've got this "casual trolling" thing down pat.
1 month, 1 week ago on Tuesday Mashup: Catching up
Corey Pronman @coreypronman 4m
In first liked: #McJesus x 10. Also, Theodore/Ritchie-ANA, Domi-PHX, Petan-WPG, Fabbri-STL, Buchnevich-NYR, Valiev-TOR, Sanheim-PHI.
@Jmessih @-Keon "First two months of August". What? Lol.
1 month, 2 weeks ago on Friday Mashup: We’re Gonna Need a Montage
8 years for PK. Now, can we stop talking about him potentially becoming a Leaf? It was never a likely scenario.
@Gilbey93 @DWCMLHS @Burtonboy Playing with Kessel is why he has such a high career shooting percentage. He's not nearly a good enough shooter to be 16.7% without heavily benefiting from playing with an elite player. Bozak has spent his entire career with Kessel. He shot 21.1% last season, though. NO player in the league can keep that up long-term. Expecting Bozak to is crazy.
1 month, 2 weeks ago on Jake Gardiner talks contract with Greg Brady
@Burtonboy @DWCMLHS Players can improve. Bozak isn't likely to. He had a super lucky year %-wise last season, and he's 28. And he hasn't improved every year. His point-production and shots/game dropped between the 11/12 and 12/13 seasons, FYI. That 11/12 season is probably the most realistically repeatable. SH% almost equal to his career average, and shots/game just a little bit above his career average. It's also the last season during which he played more than 60 games. Large sample - more accurate results. He scored at a 53-point pace in that 11/12 season. His career average points/game pro-rates to a 51-point pace. If you're going to bet on what Bozak will produce, 50-55 points per 82 games is the most likely.
If you count on a player to improve after a season during which their %s were through the roof, you're going to have a bad time.
@Burtonboy @DWCMLHS You're fucking crazy, BB. He scored at a 69-point pace last season, but no player can maintain a SH% above 20% long-term. Nobody. And he was 4th in the league (min. 30GP, forwards AND Dmen) in on-ice team SH% last season. He's not anywhere near good enough to keep that up. Bozak's rate of production is almost certainly going to plummet. The only way it doesn't, is if he and/or his linemates generate way more shots this season. Kessel and JVR were already 3rd and 8th respectively in SOG last season, and Bozak set a career-high in shots/game. Kessel and JVR really don't have much room to improve in that area, and typically, when a guy sets a career-high at 27/28 years old, he doesn't best it again the following year. All three are likely to generate less shots, especially if their ice time is cut down. The Leafs are supposedly planning on spreading ice time around more this upcoming season, so...
Bozak's %s are going to drop sharply, he probably won't generate any more shots/game, and his linemates probably won't, either. It's very easy to predict a sharp drop in his rate of production. He can probably hit between 50-55 points over an 82-game season, but that's it.
@Burtonboy He won't even hit 57.
@Pent_House @DWCMLHS @ingy56 He's a lot like Kessel, in that he's a very evasive skater/puck-rusher. It's not easy to hit the guy. He's just too agile. I could see him being significantly better than McKegg already.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on Jake Gardiner Signs for 5 years, $20.25 million
@mike_84 @DWCMLHS I think both will be good enough to play on the 1st unit. But yeah, only one actually will play in that role. One can set up Phaneuf for one-timers, the other can set up Finn (eventually) for one-timers.
@ingy56 Give him a contract, and let him center the Marlies' 1st line. We need to at least try to develop him as a center. He's by far our best long-term 1C option.
Very good contract for the Leafs. Gardiner is already a 2nd-pairing Dman, imo. There's also a chance he could become a 1st-pairing Dman at some point. It's not a guarantee that he does, but either way, I think he can be a 1st-unit PPQB, capable of 40+ points.
@Jordan29 Booth played most of his ES minutes with Kassian and Richardson. Santorelli with Higgins and Kesler.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on Toronto Maple Leafs sign Daniel Winnik to a one-year deal
@Bruffins I wouldn't really consider Rielly a prospect any more. Obviously, he still has lots of potential, but he has played enough in the NHL to be considered an NHL player, imo.
There's a big drop after Nylander. I'd say it's a toss-up between Leivo and Finn. Holland is right there with them, if he still counts. But like Rielly, I think he has enough games played to be considered an NHL player.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on James Reimer Signs for 2 years, $2.3 million per season
@lukethenuke @DeclanK @Hifi75 @rockydundas @Bon Scott was a Leaf fan Picking Ritchie - with Nylander still on the board - would have been absolutely insane. Nylander was the 4th-best prospect in this draft, imo. (I was saying that before the Leafs took him).
1 month, 3 weeks ago on Kyle Dubas: 5 Takeaways on the Leafs most recent hire
It's hard to believe that the same guy who retained Carlyle, moved Gunnarsson, a 4th, and cap space for Polak, and was willing to pay nearly $5 million for a 3rd-liner (Bolland) made today's hiring and trusted his scout on Nylander. The Leafs have made some bad decisions this summer, but not as many as last summer. And some of their moves show signs of progressive thinking for once. Dubas is exactly the kind of guy the franchise needed.
1 month, 4 weeks ago on Leafs sign David Booth to a 1-year, $1.1 million contract
@Pent_House @DWCMLHS @DeclanK You sure? He has said crazy stuff like that before about other players.
2 months ago on The Cody Franson Arbitration: What is he Worth?
@DeclanK I don't get this guy. "Advanced stats" (hate that term) are useful, and have great predictive value, but simply looking at possession numbers to judge players, ignoring the role that they play, is downright reckless. On an individual level, a player's role has a huge impact on their possession numbers. Franson would almost certainly have far worse possession numbers in Phaneuf's role than Phaneuf does. Most of the hardcore stats guys understand this. Hopefully we don't get the chance to see that assumption proven right or wrong, though.
@Ze_theLeafsFan @DWCMLHS @dlb Mad I don't think he is waiver-exempt any more, though. It's unlikely he'd make it to the AHL without being claimed. So it shouldn't matter much to him whether he's on a 1 or 2-way deal, imo. Maybe he just isn't super confident about that.
2 months ago on Maple Leafs re-sign Peter Holland to 2-year, $1.55 million deal
@MaxwellHowe @DWCMLHS @Ze_theLeafsFan Right. Ice-time, too. If Kontiola or Santorelli force the Leafs to keep him down in the 4C role for a significant length of time, he definitely won't hit 35 points. He's a good offensive player, but a guy in a 4C role isn't going to produce like that.
@dlb Mad @DWCMLHS Not too much more, but I'll take any kind of cap-savings like this. They help make up for dumb decisions like retaining salary in the Polak deal. All the small amounts add up in the long run.
Holland deal is very good value. Him taking this deal instead of his QO is pretty fantastic luck for the Leafs. Methinks he'll be worth more after next season, but we'll still have him locked up for another year at a low cap hit. I doubt the 1-way/2-way thing really matters to MLSE.
@Ze_theLeafsFan If he gets to play on the 3rd-line all season, it's not impossible. Wouldn't bet on it happening, though.
Is the sudden Loov love simply the result of him looking good in a couple highlights from the scrimmage?
2 months ago on Monday Mashup: The Dog Days are Here
@TheCanucksnaphook Have fun. Just try not to blow all of your money on Nick Ritchie merch.
@wendelsfist @drummond Even if Robidas is better than Gunnarsson (debatable, at this point), Phaneuf-Robidas still won't be an upgrade over Gunnarsson-Phaneuf, because Phaneuf plays much worse on the left side than the right side.
@drummond This is 2014. You can't just bully your way to victory in today's NHL. The Leafs don't need to get "nastier". They need to bring in a competent coach, and more good players. That's it. They certainly don't need to trade 2nd-pair caliber Dmen for 3rd-pair caliber Dmen because one is "soft" and the other is "tough".
@Bruffins This can not possibly be a serious question.
@TheCanucksnaphook @DWCMLHS @Zep2 When the Leafs consistently make good decisions, and enjoy some kind of success, sure.
@Zep2 I wanted a real 1st-pair LD to push him down the lineup. Didn't want him moved, with a pick, for a worse Dman, while retaining salary.
@TheCanucksnaphook @DWCMLHS @B_Leaf @Cameron19 Just a couple. Don't go too overboard.
@TheCanucksnaphook @DWCMLHS @B_Leaf @Cameron19 Go read some Nick Ritchie prospect profiles.
@B_Leaf @DWCMLHS @Cameron19 Polak fits a need? We needed a 1st-pair LD. We didn't need a 3rd-pair RD. We have one already. Maybe 2 or 3, depending on how ready Granberg/Holzer are.
@Cameron19 Moving a 2nd-pair Dman for a 3rd-pair Dman (while retaining salary and giving up a pick) was absolutely laughable.
Possession numbers are very useful on a team level, but on an individual level, you can't take them at face value. Zone starts have a huge impact on possession stats, and quality of competition/teammates effect it as well.
The Leafs' bad possession numbers tell you two things: Carlyle's system is horrible for possession, and the Leafs just aren't very good, outside of goaltending.
Phaneuf's bad possession numbers tell you the same. But every Dman on the Leafs has bad possession numbers. His bad possession numbers RELATIVE to a guy like Gardiner tell you that he probably starts fewer shifts in the offensive zone, and plays against much tougher competition. A quick look at his zone-start percentage and QoC data will confirm this.
I think possession stats are very useful, but on an individual level, it's all about context. I bet if Phaneuf and Gardiner were in opposite roles last season, their possession numbers would be reversed as well. Phaneuf would actually probably do better in Gardiner's role than Gardiner did, and Gardiner worse in Phaneuf's role than Phaneuf did. Because Phaneuf is better. Period.
2 months, 1 week ago on Wednesday Mashup: The Leaf – Episode 9
@mike_84 I think he'll look good enough to get people talking. But if the Leafs are smart, he'll start the season with the Marlies. No need to rush the kid. If he is dominating the AHL, call him up. I think he will probably need a whole year there, though. Then a year on the Leafs' 2nd-line. And maybe, if we're lucky, he'll be a 1st-line talent in year 3. He is an incredible talent, and just needs to learn the North American pro game.
2 months, 1 week ago on Sunday Mashup: Leafs News and Notes
2 months, 2 weeks ago on Sunday Mashup: Leafs News and Notes