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@Gilbey93 @DWCMLHS @Burtonboy Playing with Kessel is why he has such a high career shooting percentage. He's not nearly a good enough shooter to be 16.7% without heavily benefiting from playing with an elite player. Bozak has spent his entire career with Kessel. He shot 21.1% last season, though. NO player in the league can keep that up long-term. Expecting Bozak to is crazy.
6 hours, 32 minutes ago on Jake Gardiner talks contract with Greg Brady
@Burtonboy @DWCMLHS Players can improve. Bozak isn't likely to. He had a super lucky year %-wise last season, and he's 28. And he hasn't improved every year. His point-production and shots/game dropped between the 11/12 and 12/13 seasons, FYI. That 11/12 season is probably the most realistically repeatable. SH% almost equal to his career average, and shots/game just a little bit above his career average. It's also the last season during which he played more than 60 games. Large sample - more accurate results. He scored at a 53-point pace in that 11/12 season. His career average points/game pro-rates to a 51-point pace. If you're going to bet on what Bozak will produce, 50-55 points per 82 games is the most likely.
If you count on a player to improve after a season during which their %s were through the roof, you're going to have a bad time.
6 hours, 34 minutes ago on Jake Gardiner talks contract with Greg Brady
@Burtonboy @DWCMLHS You're fucking crazy, BB. He scored at a 69-point pace last season, but no player can maintain a SH% above 20% long-term. Nobody. And he was 4th in the league (min. 30GP, forwards AND Dmen) in on-ice team SH% last season. He's not anywhere near good enough to keep that up. Bozak's rate of production is almost certainly going to plummet. The only way it doesn't, is if he and/or his linemates generate way more shots this season. Kessel and JVR were already 3rd and 8th respectively in SOG last season, and Bozak set a career-high in shots/game. Kessel and JVR really don't have much room to improve in that area, and typically, when a guy sets a career-high at 27/28 years old, he doesn't best it again the following year. All three are likely to generate less shots, especially if their ice time is cut down. The Leafs are supposedly planning on spreading ice time around more this upcoming season, so...
Bozak's %s are going to drop sharply, he probably won't generate any more shots/game, and his linemates probably won't, either. It's very easy to predict a sharp drop in his rate of production. He can probably hit between 50-55 points over an 82-game season, but that's it.
6 hours, 46 minutes ago on Jake Gardiner talks contract with Greg Brady
@Burtonboy He won't even hit 57.
6 hours, 58 minutes ago on Jake Gardiner talks contract with Greg Brady
@Pent_House @DWCMLHS @ingy56 He's a lot like Kessel, in that he's a very evasive skater/puck-rusher. It's not easy to hit the guy. He's just too agile. I could see him being significantly better than McKegg already.
2 days, 5 hours ago on Jake Gardiner Signs for 5 years, $20.25 million
@mike_84 @DWCMLHS I think both will be good enough to play on the 1st unit. But yeah, only one actually will play in that role. One can set up Phaneuf for one-timers, the other can set up Finn (eventually) for one-timers.
@ingy56 Give him a contract, and let him center the Marlies' 1st line. We need to at least try to develop him as a center. He's by far our best long-term 1C option.
Very good contract for the Leafs. Gardiner is already a 2nd-pairing Dman, imo. There's also a chance he could become a 1st-pairing Dman at some point. It's not a guarantee that he does, but either way, I think he can be a 1st-unit PPQB, capable of 40+ points.
@Jordan29 Booth played most of his ES minutes with Kassian and Richardson. Santorelli with Higgins and Kesler.
3 days, 2 hours ago on Toronto Maple Leafs sign Daniel Winnik to a one-year deal
@Bruffins I wouldn't really consider Rielly a prospect any more. Obviously, he still has lots of potential, but he has played enough in the NHL to be considered an NHL player, imo.
There's a big drop after Nylander. I'd say it's a toss-up between Leivo and Finn. Holland is right there with them, if he still counts. But like Rielly, I think he has enough games played to be considered an NHL player.
6 days, 5 hours ago on James Reimer Signs for 2 years, $2.3 million per season
@lukethenuke @DeclanK @Hifi75 @rockydundas @Bon Scott was a Leaf fan Picking Ritchie - with Nylander still on the board - would have been absolutely insane. Nylander was the 4th-best prospect in this draft, imo. (I was saying that before the Leafs took him).
1 week, 2 days ago on Kyle Dubas: 5 Takeaways on the Leafs most recent hire
It's hard to believe that the same guy who retained Carlyle, moved Gunnarsson, a 4th, and cap space for Polak, and was willing to pay nearly $5 million for a 3rd-liner (Bolland) made today's hiring and trusted his scout on Nylander. The Leafs have made some bad decisions this summer, but not as many as last summer. And some of their moves show signs of progressive thinking for once. Dubas is exactly the kind of guy the franchise needed.
1 week, 2 days ago on Leafs sign David Booth to a 1-year, $1.1 million contract
@Pent_House @DWCMLHS @DeclanK You sure? He has said crazy stuff like that before about other players.
1 week, 5 days ago on The Cody Franson Arbitration: What is he Worth?
@DeclanK I don't get this guy. "Advanced stats" (hate that term) are useful, and have great predictive value, but simply looking at possession numbers to judge players, ignoring the role that they play, is downright reckless. On an individual level, a player's role has a huge impact on their possession numbers. Franson would almost certainly have far worse possession numbers in Phaneuf's role than Phaneuf does. Most of the hardcore stats guys understand this. Hopefully we don't get the chance to see that assumption proven right or wrong, though.
@Ze_theLeafsFan @DWCMLHS @dlb Mad I don't think he is waiver-exempt any more, though. It's unlikely he'd make it to the AHL without being claimed. So it shouldn't matter much to him whether he's on a 1 or 2-way deal, imo. Maybe he just isn't super confident about that.
2 weeks, 1 day ago on Maple Leafs re-sign Peter Holland to 2-year, $1.55 million deal
@MaxwellHowe @DWCMLHS @Ze_theLeafsFan Right. Ice-time, too. If Kontiola or Santorelli force the Leafs to keep him down in the 4C role for a significant length of time, he definitely won't hit 35 points. He's a good offensive player, but a guy in a 4C role isn't going to produce like that.
@dlb Mad @DWCMLHS Not too much more, but I'll take any kind of cap-savings like this. They help make up for dumb decisions like retaining salary in the Polak deal. All the small amounts add up in the long run.
Holland deal is very good value. Him taking this deal instead of his QO is pretty fantastic luck for the Leafs. Methinks he'll be worth more after next season, but we'll still have him locked up for another year at a low cap hit. I doubt the 1-way/2-way thing really matters to MLSE.
@Ze_theLeafsFan If he gets to play on the 3rd-line all season, it's not impossible. Wouldn't bet on it happening, though.
Is the sudden Loov love simply the result of him looking good in a couple highlights from the scrimmage?
2 weeks, 3 days ago on Monday Mashup: The Dog Days are Here
@TheCanucksnaphook Have fun. Just try not to blow all of your money on Nick Ritchie merch.
@wendelsfist @drummond Even if Robidas is better than Gunnarsson (debatable, at this point), Phaneuf-Robidas still won't be an upgrade over Gunnarsson-Phaneuf, because Phaneuf plays much worse on the left side than the right side.
@drummond This is 2014. You can't just bully your way to victory in today's NHL. The Leafs don't need to get "nastier". They need to bring in a competent coach, and more good players. That's it. They certainly don't need to trade 2nd-pair caliber Dmen for 3rd-pair caliber Dmen because one is "soft" and the other is "tough".
@Bruffins This can not possibly be a serious question.
@TheCanucksnaphook @DWCMLHS @Zep2 When the Leafs consistently make good decisions, and enjoy some kind of success, sure.
@Zep2 I wanted a real 1st-pair LD to push him down the lineup. Didn't want him moved, with a pick, for a worse Dman, while retaining salary.
@TheCanucksnaphook @DWCMLHS @B_Leaf @Cameron19 Just a couple. Don't go too overboard.
@TheCanucksnaphook @DWCMLHS @B_Leaf @Cameron19 Go read some Nick Ritchie prospect profiles.
@B_Leaf @DWCMLHS @Cameron19 Polak fits a need? We needed a 1st-pair LD. We didn't need a 3rd-pair RD. We have one already. Maybe 2 or 3, depending on how ready Granberg/Holzer are.
@Cameron19 Moving a 2nd-pair Dman for a 3rd-pair Dman (while retaining salary and giving up a pick) was absolutely laughable.
Possession numbers are very useful on a team level, but on an individual level, you can't take them at face value. Zone starts have a huge impact on possession stats, and quality of competition/teammates effect it as well.
The Leafs' bad possession numbers tell you two things: Carlyle's system is horrible for possession, and the Leafs just aren't very good, outside of goaltending.
Phaneuf's bad possession numbers tell you the same. But every Dman on the Leafs has bad possession numbers. His bad possession numbers RELATIVE to a guy like Gardiner tell you that he probably starts fewer shifts in the offensive zone, and plays against much tougher competition. A quick look at his zone-start percentage and QoC data will confirm this.
I think possession stats are very useful, but on an individual level, it's all about context. I bet if Phaneuf and Gardiner were in opposite roles last season, their possession numbers would be reversed as well. Phaneuf would actually probably do better in Gardiner's role than Gardiner did, and Gardiner worse in Phaneuf's role than Phaneuf did. Because Phaneuf is better. Period.
3 weeks, 1 day ago on Wednesday Mashup: The Leaf – Episode 9
@mike_84 I think he'll look good enough to get people talking. But if the Leafs are smart, he'll start the season with the Marlies. No need to rush the kid. If he is dominating the AHL, call him up. I think he will probably need a whole year there, though. Then a year on the Leafs' 2nd-line. And maybe, if we're lucky, he'll be a 1st-line talent in year 3. He is an incredible talent, and just needs to learn the North American pro game.
3 weeks, 3 days ago on Sunday Mashup: Leafs News and Notes
3 weeks, 4 days ago on Sunday Mashup: Leafs News and Notes
@peterbleafs He had played exactly 82 games before he was traded to the Kings. He put up 15 goals, 13 assists, and 28 points as a Leaf. I think that's about what we can expect from him. He might do better if he plays with Lupul and Kadri.
If the Redblacks could please beat the Bombers... that'd be great.
4 weeks ago on Troy Bodie re-signed to one-year deal by the Maple Leafs
After draft+3 season:
- 51 NHL GP, 19 points
- 92 AHL GP, 81 points
- Age 21, 22nd Bday coming up on Oct. 6th.
- 51 NHL GP, 24 points
- 73 AHL GP, 55 points
- Age 21, 22nd Bday coming up on Oct. 5th.
Both were 1st-round picks - Kadri 7th overall in 2009, Baertschi 13th overall in 2011.
Kadri is 6'0", 188 lbs. Baertschi is 5'11", 190 lbs.
Pretty damn similar. I don't see why we wouldn't take a chance on Baertschi, if he's available. The Flames shouldn't move him, though.
@whalz I'd trade Franson for Baertschi in a heartbeat. He's ready to play a full season, imo. He's almost a .5 points/game player through the games he has played to this point.
Look at Kadri's first 3 seasons after being drafted: 19 points 51 NHL GP, age 21. Baertschi? 24 points in 51 NHL GP, age 21. Kadri was drafted 7th overall, Baertschi 13th overall.
I think Baerteschi is ready to break into the NHL full-time. I'd play him with Kadri and Lupul. He's got a lot of upside. We don't need Franson.
@RandomScrub @DWCMLHS Teams don't have to. But some do. It's just community involvement. Monahan and Giordano went with Burke. Ference went for the Oilers. I don't know if they were officially there on behalf of their teams, but they wore their jerseys. And I think the Leafs Twitter account even talked about Bodie going.
@Bruffins @DWCMLHS Meh. Low-risk moves. We needed depth. Still haven't addressed our major needs, though.
@RandomScrub @DWCMLHS Burke was there representing the Flames...
I expected Bodie to be re-signed, since he represented the Leafs at the Toronto pride parade. It wouldn't make much sense to send him if he wasn't coming back to the team.
4 weeks ago on Maple Leafs submit an offer to David Legwand
I bet Legwand could produce more between Kessel and JVR than Bozak does. Legwand is better defensively, too.
@mikeshaver @Marlies Man Maybe over the next 2 seasons combined...
4 weeks, 1 day ago on Maple Leafs submit an offer to David Legwand
@dlb Mad Yes. Bolland and Clarkson are 3rd-liners. The other three are legitmate top-6 forwards: better, deserving of more minutes, harder to replace.
Weren't the Canucks linked to Vrbata at the deadline last year?
@dlb Mad @DWCMLHS Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha. You're funny. Do you do stand-up?
Sedin - Sedin - Vrbata will have all of the Corsis.
Guys like Cammalleri, Grabovski and Vrbata making $5 million doesn't look very bad when Bolland makes $5.5 million and Clarkson makes $5.25 million. .
@Murph2417 same here