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Should be an interesting match-up tonight. In many ways, the Leafs are facing a team that is similar to them; both possess deep forward groups, questionable defensive groups, and statistically similar - at least this season - goaltenders.
10 months, 3 weeks ago on Morning(ish) Mashup: Flyers in Town + Links
@mcloki Millen... blehh
1 year, 3 months ago on Game Preview: Leafs look to keep winning while also playing better vs. Canes
@-Keon- Unless you unluckily grew up in the god-forsaken land of the scabs
1 year, 3 months ago on Preview and GDT: Avalanche at Maple Leafs (7 p.m., TSN)
As the Leafs gain more respect around the league, I think you'll find that more and more players will be willing to come out and admit that the Leafs were their favorite childhood team.
@mORRganRielly @Aaron Chan haha I did last week but I'm sure you've got tons of stuff on your TL. Thanks, I appreciate it and it's never too late :)
@Burtonboy @Aaron Chan @wiski This is an extremely small sample size, and I'd take it with a grain of salt at this point, but the Leafs' Fenwick For% (excludes blocked shots) in 5v5 close situations was 38% in first game of the season (Reimer) and 44.1% in the last game against Ottawa (Bernier replaced Reimer). Was trying to find the FF% for the Flyers game but don't see it anywhere... Anyways, BB, take it for what it's worth but it'd wait till at least the 25-game mark to starting looking at whether the Leafs are better at possession with Reimer or Bernier.
Was getting some questions about what is, and isn't, calculated in Corsi. Here is a primer I wrote last week on some very basic "advanced stats". I promise you that it's readable.
@mcloki @Aaron Chan @wiski No, Corsi is basically a plus/minus stats but for shots. It measures the difference between shots missed/blocked/on-goal for and shots missed/blocked/on-net against.
Props to @mcloki for the new banners. Can't wait for the other 25!
@wiski Are you referring to the Ron Wilson era?
@leafmealone @Zep2 that "skewing of data" is called score effects, just in case you were wondering :)
@mcloki @Alec Brownscombe @Aaron Chan @Pent_House We're leagues better than 3 years ago, that's not even up for debate.
@Dan39 @mORRganRielly @Pent_House Come on guys. No specific Corsi% or Fenwick% was cited in this pregame, which hardly makes it an advanced stats blurb.
@mcloki @Aaron Chan @Pent_House @Alec Brownscombe Sure but we can't keep relying on special teams as heavily. If you take a look at 5v5 close situations (what Chris was talking about) you'll see teams like Boston, LA, Detroit, and Chicago in the top-5. Leafs have great special teams, that is without a doubt, but if we want to take it to the next level and have more sustainable success, 5v5 performance has to improve.
@Pent_House @Alec Brownscombe Chris is just trying to point out that the Leafs need to be better 5v5. No harm, no foul in backing up your assertion.
@Mind Bomb @Aaron Chan @Anthony Petrielli haha I saw that "hot female" comment, MB.
1 year, 4 months ago on Toronto Maple Leafs Hot Stove Hangout Ep.#2
@colino17 @Anthony Petrielli That will be relatively easy to create.
@Anthony Petrielli @Dink I'm think Declan and Alec were happy with the initial recording and didn't want to make any edits. The first one was highly edited because it was our first and there was tons of unstructured talk. I think for the next time we'll organize the time better and make it shorter. I agree, it's unreasonable to expect people to listen for a full hour.
@Malkincookies I was like "yinz"? But then I saw Malkin :P thanks for checking us out
@peterbleafs @Burtonboy I'm supposedly doing homework right now but it's t-30m till game time...
1 year, 4 months ago on GDT: Preseason Game #1 – Flyers at Maple Leafs (6 p.m., Leafs TV)
@wiski As someone who is in their early-20s, I do not condone, or listen, to this music. This is what results if garbage took a shit, and that shit puked.
1 year, 4 months ago on Leafs Announce Training Camp Roster
@dlb eh There are several ways for opponents to be caught off-guard. Catching teams off guard with your dogged work ethic and solid execution of systems is perfectly plausible, and is something I believe the Leafs were able to effectuate last season. They can also, as you put it, have inaccurate expectations for the Leafs team that is coming into their barn. I wasn't implying that other teams thought the Leafs were a soft team.
1 year, 5 months ago on Midweek Leafs News and Notes
Babcock: Lucic, I asked for pylons, not tires.
Thanks for reading, everyone. I hope the charts and tables weren't too much. I'm a bit of a chartophile :P Also, all data was compiled from NHL.com.
In writing this piece, and in discussing with Alec, it's hard to envision a scenario that is truly satisfactory. Think about it. We've paid good money for Bernier and I think we all want him to succeed. We also want Reimer to succeed because...well, Reimer. There are very few historical precedents for sustainable 50/50 split tandems and if so, they don't last long. I also can't help but feel that we're squeezing Reimer out, no matter how he performs.
1 year, 5 months ago on MLHS Season Preview – Goaltending: Analysis of Like-Age Goalie Tandems From 2001-2012
@dlb eh @Greg Fenton Come on guys, we all love the same team here... kiss and make up
1 year, 5 months ago on Thursday Morning Mashup: Un-fancy Stat
The predator becomes the prey...
First it was #Leafs & #Sens now #Preds & #Hawks. Agree or Disagree? And the even better question...will it work? http://ow.ly/nXkPp
It’s not easy being the Nashville Predators. Still a relatively
new franchise in the NHL, it’s nestled geographically near two Original
Six teams that have far-reaching fan bases: the Detroit Red...
@Greg Fenton I get it and I didn't take it that way :) Either way, If I'm wrong, I'm more than willing to admit it and change my method/mind. I don't recall pegging him as an All Star in the article but I, too, would caution others from jumping on that boat.
As I was telling @Burtonboy , I actually have a lot more data that pertains to point production trends of players who endure/do not endure sophomore slumps. For example, I categorized players by the number of seasons of point production growth they experienced 3 years after their sophomore slump. I found that players who experience 2 years of PPG growth have the highest likelihood of becoming Impact/*All-Star* players. I have chart of it if people would like to see.
@Greg Fenton You're right, there were technically only 2 all-stars. I just went back to my sheet and corrected the error. If I had more time, I would much prefer to create different player categories as opposed to Bust, Role, Impact and All-Star. I guess what I was trying to get at with this is to see how these high-scoring rookies eventually pan out. Also, when I speak of Gardiner's peers, I'm including the forwards.
That's what the numbers suggest. What I've found is that D that finish in the top-10 of rookie scoring are usually pretty special players. I'll check the data when I get to work but the number of seasons of production growth, following their sophomore year, is pretty telling.
I'm also of the opinion that Gardiner will have a strong bounce-back year but need on the data I collected, players who have 1-2 years of production growth coming out of their sophomore slump are more likely to become Impact and All Star players. If anyone is interested in the findings I would be happy to discuss and put up a dedicated post
Good morning everyone
@Dangle_My_Berries I stopped reading Bleacher Report a while ago. Not much depth of analysis.
1 year, 5 months ago on <!--:en-->Thursday Morning Mashup: Gauthier Shows Well<!--:-->
@Jmessih In any event, I'll try and post some more tweets as the game progresses. :-)
@Jmessih From what I read yesterday, it sounded like Sutter would roll Gauthier's line any time he needed to control the play. Don't see why they'd move him up there, unless I'm misreading based on how Koshan organized his tweet.
Finn - 7th D
CAN Pairings: Nurse-Dumba/Pouliot-Severson/Koekkoek-Pulock/Finn. Fucale starting in goal.
1C duty for Frederik Gauthier. Is anyone watching this? Might be a good idea...
Canada lines vs. Sweden: Poirier-Gauthier-Jankowski; Horvat-Monahan-Lazar; Domi-McDavid-Hudon; Rupert-Gaunce-Rychel; Mantha
USA's PP unit today of
Toninato, McCarron, Guentzel, Butcher and Carrick has done some of the
best work on the advantage all camp.
USA Standouts in Period 1:
Toninato, Compher, Motte, Fasching, DiPauli, Carrick. Good flashes:
McCarron, Guentzel, Butcher, Stolarz
In first period liked: Toninato (TOR), Motte (CHI), Fasching (LAK), Compher (BUF), Carrick (WSH), Butcher (COL).
@ErikGruber @Aaron Chan Let's hope the kids have another strong showing today.
@-Keon- Was going to say, try this: http://usahockey.fasthockey.com/login.php
@-Keon- That's odd because I just created an account with fast hockey
If you guys are interested in paying $8 today's game against Sweden, here is the link:
Crowd source $8 and stream it on a justivTV channel?
... Shinkaruk, Wilson, Girard, Petan, Laughton, Reinhart, Leipsic
Does this mean Gauthier and Finn will see more action against Sweden today?
Canada scratches vs. Sweden today: Comrie, Heatherington, Matheson, Morrissey ...
ICYMI: Doug Gilmour traded his son http://bit.ly/14nOVeX
@mlclearwater I've heard a lot of Canucks bloggers complaining about how there is no insurance policy for Ryan Kesler. I hate to break it to them but they sold their policy to a water buffalo.