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I'm low on Verner, actually, after reading Mike Tanier's piece. http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/68458420/tennessee-titans-alterraun-verner-headlines-nfl-free-agent-class
His argument is that (based on what he saw on film), Verner is more of a zone coverage guy. He's not a physical corner, very rarely bumping anyone at the line. Instead, he backs off, relying on his quickness and intelligence to close on receivers. He sounds like a great player, but not like what the Colts do with their CBs...in fact he sounds like the opposite. Given that, I just don't trust our coaches to use him wisely. It sounds like a recipe for disaster: they'll bring him in, ask him to do crap that he has never done and isn't particularly good at, and we'll be paying 12M per year for someone playing like he's below average.
Good article...sounds like Davis is the best option. It's easy to dream about free agents and upgrading the roster, but as this article and the articles on free agent centers show, these decisions aren't as simple as "our CB is ok...let's get a new one." You have to see what's actually out there and decide what makes the most sense. Well done!
6 days, 7 hours ago on Free Agency PFF Spotlight Part 2: The Cornerback Contingency Plan
I fucking love this column every single week.
2 months ago on CA Charting Project: Offensive Line Charting, Wild Card Week
Great analysis. Let's hire Reggie as a coach when he's done.
2 months, 3 weeks ago on The Difference a Good Route Makes
Great, great work. This article has become mandatory reading for serious Colts fans. You are not only putting in a ton of solid work--you're also applying good analysis to it. Good stuff!
3 months, 2 weeks ago on CA Charting Project: Charting the Colts' Offensive Line, Week 12
I vote Vontae
5 months ago on Abridged All-22: Masking Poor Coverage & the Peyton Prism
This is a fantastic article! Really thoughtful, in-depth analysis of scheme. Great, great work.
I hope Werner can step up and make an impact as a replacement for Walden. I also hope the front office and coaching staff will be quick to pull a player (Walden or whoever) if they aren't working out, regardless of who got which contract or who got drafted highly.
But again, great article. Excited to see more stuff from you.
5 months, 2 weeks ago on All-22: Defense, Week 3 vs 49ers.
Also--welcome back to Colts Authority, where accurately describing Chris Johnson as overrated won't start a comments-destroying flame war of epic proportions. I always found that hilarious.
11 months ago on What Can the Colts Expect from the 2013 Draft
Great stuff as always...I'd be curious, too, about breaking this down by position. Is a WR picked 20-30 generally better than an OT?
I kinda hope they trade down and get more picks in the 20-45 range.
@bradicus18 @SGV I'm actually ok with RJF...dude is playing back-up to the Smiths. I think I've heard Greg Cosell say good things about him, too, for what it's worth.
11 months, 3 weeks ago on Guest Post: Were the Colts Free Agents Worth the Money?
@mattshedd Yeah, that's what's so hard about this (and the draft)...the only thing you really can do is wait to see how it pans out. There's just now way to predict things. The draft is probably worse in this regard.
That said, I think we can use stats like you do, to at least see if Grigson's behavior makes much sense. If common patterns pop out, and they reflect what could be good, solid reasoning, then that makes me feel better about the organization. If it's all over the place and self-contradictory, that would make worried. No matter how Landry pans out, I'm okay with the strategy here.
@mattshedd Dude--your post is good, and a spelling mistake isn't a big deal. The guy's name is Gosder Cherilus!!! That name already looks misspelled!
Also, the idea that "oh, now you have no credibility and I have to verify all your stats". Um--reading blogs is always about trust--no one can verify all this stuff. I choose to place my trust in people based on if their analysis seems sound and carefully thought out. Your post is a good example of that. Spelling counts for very little with me--I believe it's a poor proxy for statistical inference.
In sum: rock on.
@JonathanCaldwell At first I was gonna respond to the guy, but I think I'm better off if I imagine that SGV is a really good friend of the writer and that this is a big joke. It makes me happier to believe that, so I'm just gonna do that.
Oh, one more point on stats technique. If I had the time, what I'd like to do is go beyond just last year. I'm interested in how much does AV bounce around for a player? Is it common for a guy to go (0.3, 0.8, 9.4, 1.2), or are more guys like (3.7, 4, 3.5, 2.8). Both those players would have similar AV over four years, but I'd probably have more faith in the second one. Then again--maybe it makes sense to swing for the first guy.
In any case, I bet that the reason FA is such a bad idea in general is that you pay for guys who are like (2, 2, 2, 9) cause you think they're on a good trajectory, when really what you just paid for is a guy who in a few years will look like (2, 2, 2, 9, 2, 2, 2). It sounds like, with the exception of Landry, that Grigson got a bunch of guys who are (2, 2, 2) but whose situations suggest that their numbers are deflated--eg, Francois (a possible 8 sitting behind Aldon Smith, a 10), or Thomas (same situation). I actually really like this approach because, even if Grigson is spending a lot--which, again, is irrelevant because of the Colts' cap situation--it shows that it's in a thoughtful way. Grigson might still be wrong about all these guys, but he's not just going out and signing Albert Haynesworth to make the fan base happy.
Great post...I liked the technique. It's not perfect, but no technique will be, and this strikes me as a good, rough way to get a sense of things.
I think your takeaway is right--the Colts got a bunch of unproven, young guys. Lots of upside. But most importantly--there's almost zero downside. Given all our cap space and Luck's rookie contract, it just doesn't matter all that much if we blow a lot of Irsay's cash for the next three years. We have to spend this money anyway...and I don't think there are plausible alternatives. If we spent less money, we wouldn't get the best people available. If we wanted "marquee" guys like Jake Long or Mike Wallace, we'd have to spend even more money (and probably guarantee cash well into Luck's second contract, which would be the only big mistake you could make).
So, the only question is, did Grigson roll the dice on the wrong guys? Should he have gotten Vollmer instead of Cherilus? Kept Freeney instead of Walden? But as you rightly point out--we just don't know yet, and at this point, it makes sense to give Ryan "I found Jerrell Freeman" Grigson the benefit of the doubt. FA rarely works out well, but if you have extra cash, doesn't it make sense to blow it and see? It's not like you can use cap space to buy first round draft picks...
And, optimistically, perhaps Pagano's background as a DB coach will help the Colts take advantage of Davis' skills and coach up his skills.
1 year, 6 months ago on A Closer Look at Newcomer Vontae Davis | August
I agree re the defense. On offense, we know what we have--an old Reggie Wayne, a solid Donald Brown, an unspectacular line that needs reinforcement, Austin Collie, and not much else. It makes sense to retool it. On defense, though, it's much less clear what we have, since we won't know how folks will transition. Makes sense, then, to go all in on Luck this year, making it easier on him (while still getting the best players available), and wait and see on the defense.
1 year, 10 months ago on Post Draft Thoughts | Articles
Loved the article--he's a good writer, and I like the "find arbitrage opportunities" approach
1 year, 10 months ago on Interesting Taibbi Draft Theory | Articles
That got me really excited! Aaron Rodgers arm + Tebow body? Nice
1 year, 10 months ago on Luck and ESPN Sports Science | Articles
@psvirsky Was the end of that comment a cry for help???
2 years ago on Drama and Change is Boring | February
Good stuff, as always. It might complicate things if Peyton comes back...at this point, I'm most worried about getting good WRs/TEs for Luck. If Peyton is back and close to his old self, the draft picks won't be as good. Here's to hoping that they hit some home runs in later rounds on an WR/TE or two...