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No offense but you have a severe blind spot when it comes to Wieters.
1. He was not hyped as a decent player, he was hyped as a great Joe Mauer type player. He was the number 1 overall prospect according to Keith Law in 2009 preseason. You devoted an entire website to how great he was going to be. You can't pretend to view him as some in a vacuum player who the Orioles stumbled across like Jeff Tackett or something. Under your logic Ben McDonald was a tremendous success because he had a lifetime 3.91 ERA and an above .500 winning percentage.
2. Manny Machado was ultra-hyped and guess what....he is 10 times better than anyone thought including me and I watched him play in the minors and thought he was going to be an immediate superstar. The last O's position player to post 7 WAR in a season was Hoiles in 1993. Machado is going to blow by that like a Lamborghini racing a car with a flat tire at age 20/21. Machado probably wasn't as hyped as Wieters however and Wieters has never exceeded 4.7 WAR. He just isn't getting it done.
3. It is questionable at best your logic on Wieters' improvement. He was less valuable in 2012 than he was in 2011. His peripherals right now look very similar to 2010 except more power and less BABIP and in 2010 his w/OBA was .305. He was a 2.2 win player that year. He is basically what he is at this point, a 2-4 WAR player who thinks he is a superstar and deserves superstar money.
4. The O's have other things to take care of. Jones makes good money, Davis will make good money (and has actually made significant improvement both peripherally and otherwise this year and deserves it), Machado in 3 years will get a tremendous arbitration bump, Johnson makes a lot of money, etc. If the O's are staying in the 100 million dollar range I do not think you can commit 15-20% of your payroll to a player that can't run or hit all that much. I also have serious moral concerns about rewarding a guy for not improving. It is like food stamps for people who don't work.
5. Let's just put it this way, regardless of how good you or I think Wieters is. I would rather give Machado 15 years 300 million and lose Wieters via trade or free agency than offer Machado 280 million and have even a .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 percent chance he might test free agency at age 26.
9 months, 3 weeks ago on Matt Wieters Is Good At Baseball