Bay Area, CA
I like to boogie down.
I can't really fathom this signing. Obviously the Pirates don't think Volquez is better than Charlie Morton. Do they think he's better than Jeff Locke and Stolmy Pimentel? If so...how? If not, why are we blowing $5M on someone who we don't even project to make the Opening Day rotation? What makes the Pirates think that Volquez is any better than letting Justin Wilson start? Ugh. Yuck.
2 months, 3 weeks ago on Ken Rosenthal reports Pirates sign Edinson Volquez for $5 million
It's also worth noting that Bryan Morris should absolutely be available as a long man. Dude was starting as recently as 2011 and threw 86 innings in 51 appearances last year.
Also, I think we might be going a little overboard when we're looking at Paul Maholm as unbeatable. ;)
10 months, 3 weeks ago on Game 15: Braves 6 Pirates 4
Maybe it's just me, but I feel like the Pirates fan community is really down on Jeff Locke and I'm not sure why. The kid's been one of our top prospects for several years; he's got a 2.44 ERA with decent peripherals in 170 AAA innings; he struck out a batter an inning in MLB last season. Sure, we all know that Jeff Locke is never going to be an ace, but characterizing him as a "fringey sixth starter" just seems crazy to me (McPherson less so, since he probably does need some AAA time). I'm certainly happy that we don't NEED to have him in the Opening Day rotation, but it's his age-25 season; if he is what we hope he can be, he ought to be a contributor this year.
1 year, 1 month ago on Pirates finally agree to terms with Francisco Liriano
I wrote this poem on the back of a worksheet for a horrific training course in Agile Development, because I live a glamorous life that is filled with such things. Originally I thought it was going to be a poem about a frustrated novelist, which perhaps one day I will also write. For now, I will have to deal with the shame of allowing others to read a confessional poem. Such is life as a bad poet.
1 year, 3 months ago on Mornacale.com - Autobiography Rots
Only if you think the Pirates true talent level is significantly above .500, which it isn't.
Furthermore, if one were to really do the math that Pat suggests, it would result in an inability to reject the null hypothesis that there is no significant difference between Burnett's starts and other games.
1 year, 7 months ago on This is AJ Burnett since the All-Star break | August 2012
@Carnegie Chip McDonald was fine today, really. Obviously it's not the outing you want, but things may well look at lot different without that absurd IBB. He was way too good for the first four innings to be considering pulling him out of a rotation that includes KEVIN CORREIA of all people.
1 year, 7 months ago on The Pirates trade for Wandy Rodriguez: | July 2012
I have an unnaturally good feeling about this game. This is the most absurd optimism I've ever experienced.
1 year, 9 months ago on Let's just give Justin Verlander the no-hitter and get on with our lives | May 2012
I posted this elsewhere, mise well get double use
3 hitters with BA >.240 (Harrison, Walker, McCutchen)
3 hitters with BA <.200 (McLouth, Barmes, McKenry)
2 hitters with OBP >.300 (Walker, McCutchen)
4 hitters with SLG >.400 (Harrison [lol], McCutchen, Alvarez, Jones)
2 hitters with BB% <1 (Harrison [0%!], Barmes)
4 hitters with K% >25 (Alvarez, McLouth, Barmes, McKenry; Jones is at 23%)
Combined slash line: .237/.290/.382\
Combined BB rate: 6.9%
Combined K rate: 21.9%
@kentuckypirate28 Obviously Pedro is always going to strike out a lot, but he really can't be the hitter the Pirates need him to be at a 33% k-rate. I'm not really arguing that he's never going to be a good hitter, but he has a pretty defined weakness in my opinion and if he doesn't address it then he's going to have difficulty being much better than average. He's no longer lost at the plate, but as Pat says pitchers have and will continue to adjust, and he's got to be able to deal with 2-strike counts.
Josh Hamilton is not really a good comparison for anyone in baseball. Dude has a .400+ BABIP and a HR/FB over 40%. More than 15% of his balls "in play" are home runs, he hasn't hit an infield fly yet, and just for good measure his IFH% is almost 10. With that combination of luck and freak athleticism, you can get away with bad plate discipline. And still, for all his whiffs, he strikes out very little: only 5 K in 32 0-2 counts faced this season (also 4/7 on balls in play and 20 balls taken). So either he's very lucky, which we don't want Pedro to count on, or he's very talented at controlling the zone and shortening up his swing in 2-strike counts, which is exactly where Pedro's shortcomings lie.
1 year, 9 months ago on Pedro Alvarez's most recent slump | May 2012
Batter Ahead: 40 PA, 4 K, .4 HR, 333/.500/.833
Count Even: 37 PA, 6 K, 3 HR, .257/.243/.514
Pitcher Ahead: 42 PA, 30 K, 0 HR, .095/.095/.167
(Keeping in mind that it's only possible to walk with the batter ahead.)
Just to be clear, obviously none of those numbers account for foul balls. I do think they they pretty well illustrate the book on Pedro, though: get him behind in the count and then throw him pitches outside the zone until he whiffs on one.
I've been working on a project trying to put together a comprehensive picture of Pedro, but here's what it boils down to:
Pedro Alvarez misses about half the time he swings at a pitch outside the zone. He is also more likely than average to swing at such a pitch. Therefore, if you get Pedro down 0-2 or 1-2, then you can throw him two balls and he will probably strike out.
Check out his by-count splits on B-R. Pedro has gone down 0-2 29 times; 10 times he has struck out immediately, three times he has put a ball in play (1 1B, 2 outs), and 16 times he's taken a ball. He's reached 1-2 36 times; 20 of those times have resulted in an immediate strikeout, 5 in a ball in play (1 2B, 4 outs), and 11 in taking a ball. Pitchers continue to throw him balls on 2-2: 6 K, 7 balls in play (1 1B), 12 balls. (I'm not sure if there's any significance in his much lower K-rate on 2-2 pitches.)
I don't think it's a coincidence that Bedard's start was pushed back to Correia's spot in the rotation. I'm hoping that this is effectively a replacement of Correia with Lincoln.
1 year, 9 months ago on Will Brad Lincoln's bullpen success translate into a start? | May 2012
Ugh, sorry if this is horrible to read, I'm posting from my phone and it looks like it won't post line breaks.
1 year, 10 months ago on Game 30: Pirates 4 Nationals 2 | April 2012
This has really been an amazing series. Let's see what's happened so far:
- Burnett strikes out 10 in 8 innings
- Cutch's first 2012 HR
- Bryce Harper
- Adam LaRoche takes Joel Hanrahan deep for a go-ahead homer, in May
- Rod Barajas walk-off home run after a bloop hit and two wild pitches
- Erik Bedard injures back after 1+ IP
- Brad Lincoln gets 2-pitch K
- Lincoln scores first run of game after reaching on a strikeout and going to third on a ball that hit the pitcher
- Cutch scores from second on a ground ball
- Navarro robs home run in a bizarre way
- Bucs' bullpen throws 8 innings with 1 ER
- both Grilli and Hanrahan get into bad jams and somehow escape
AmI missing anything? At this rate, I sort of expect that Strasburg will K 20 and Clint Barmes will hit a walk-off grand slam.
So, put another way, the only pitching staff better than Washington's is "whoever is facing the Pirates".
1 year, 10 months ago on Finding offense (in the rain) | April 2012
@wkkortas If he can be acceptable at 3B (DRS and UZR have him at +/- 1 run thus far), even Reynolds-level hitting will be a pretty solid addition to the team. But he definitely has to hit better if he's gotta move to 1B.
1 year, 10 months ago on Waiting for Pedro | April 2012
Well, on the plus side, Charlie Morton ringing up strikeouts is a really good sign.
1 year, 10 months ago on Can the offense keep going? | April 2012
@whygavs Counterpoint: from a lefty
1 year, 10 months ago on Pedro plays against a lefty | April 2012
Pedro homers on a high fastball. What is this feeling?