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Funny, but I always thought Pirri's best chance of sticking with the team was if the Hawks had signed somebody like Boyd Gordon. Currently Q doesn't use the third line (when Shaw is centering it) as a checking line. So either the second or fourth lines have to step up and play against a tougher line than they have in the past.
As an example, when Kruger (early in his career) centered the Hawks second line he was taking the shifts that Shaw is taking now. If an actual checking center was on the third line then Pirri could be doing what Kruger was doing then. So now he either has to either beat out Shaw for that role or play a better two way game. And sometimes players like Shaw who are more multidimensional can take an offensive slot away from a better offensive but more one dimensional player like Pirri.
9 months ago on Is Brandon Pirri in Trouble?
@JesusMarianHossa @Neo1978 OK, so I found where you were getting your data. That is total on ice data including penalty kill numbers. So of course your top PK guys will have negative possession numbers. Here is actual 5o5 data:
That data is what I have as confirmation. Note that the SB Nation Corsi data differs in that it doesn't exclude pulled goalie data. Nullisecund appears to do it correctly. BTW, because it was only one game and the score was always within one goal the ExtraSkater 5o5 score close data confirms it as well:
So +2 Corsi for Nordstrom and +6 Corsi for Kruger. Kruger got a boost when he was replacing Handzus.so that is the difference there.
11 months ago on Community Ratings Results: Blackhawks vs. Capitals (10.1.13)
Where did Nordstrom lose a puck battle on the first goal? You are the second person to say that, btw. Puck goes to the far boards, Nordstrom's speed gets him to the puck first and he sends it down the ice. Grabo brings the puck up and Keith gets beat in the neutral zone to let the Caps enter the zone. Nordstrom moves off his guy by turning around to take a whack at Grabo. That slows him down and lets Keith get back into the play. Nordstrom then moves back to his side of the ice. From there, Caps had the puck until they scored. Where was there a puck battle?
And at 5o5, Nordstrom was even on Fenwick and +2 Corsi. Kruger was +4 and +6 respectively, not -4 and -6 like you have.
John, the Hawks still haven't figured out two quality lines built from Toews, Kane, Sharp and Hossa. If you can't get a line from Sharp and Toews playing together then I just don't see what the Hawks are going to do.
I think Brunette is a "placeholder" until Morin comes up. But I got nothin on the other top 6 slot. Don't see it being in house.
2 years, 9 months ago on Blues 3, Lost Sheep 0: Should Have Tried the Veal
So, I try to be supportive and look where it gets me.
2 years, 9 months ago on President Cup Champs 6, Hawks 2
Hawks don't seem to have a left side defenseman capable of stepping up to the top 4 after an injury. Maybe Olsen might be that guy later in the year.
Hey John, Hawks seem to have a problem when facing teams with two real scoring lines. Do you match your shutdown line and shutdown d-pair against the Stamkos line or against the Lecavalier and St. Louis line? Q put his checking line against one of them and his shutdown d-pair against the other.
Unless Hossa and Toews play together the Hawks don't have a second defensive forward line. And Montador doesn't appear to be able to play the Left D side (as you have said he is right handed). Kind of ironic that you miss Campbell on the defensive end, at least when Keith or Hjammer are injured?
2 years, 9 months ago on Blackhawks, 4 - The Team With Some Guy Who Scored Like 100 Goals In The Past Two Years And Who Already Had Two In The Game But Wasn't Worth Covering And Therefore Scored Another (And Then Some Other Guy Scored One In OT Too Just To Piss Me Off More), 5
@RSA Course. You're welcome and thanks for stopping by...
2 years, 10 months ago on Q’s Random Line Generator - The CBJ Game Compared to the Previous Five
Hey John, choir here. Just reportin' in...
2 years, 10 months ago on In Defense of the Defense
You know Brian, I stopped worrying about the 2010 tape after Leddy and Campoli showed up last year. Totally different team when you have a 3rd d-pair and this year's version is better than the end of last year's version.
2 years, 10 months ago on Hawks 3, Avs 1
@John Jaeckel Yeah, JJ when I need a good laugh I go read what you say.
And seems I wasn't so delusional after all. You know, for thinking Salak was going to sign for under 1.3M, huh? What did he sign for again? The 600K I originally said? Really? And you wonder why I stopped posting there?
2 years, 10 months ago on Someone's Gonna Have To Pay
@John Jaeckel Seriously, that is your argument? You have been spewing on your blog how Leddy has "hurt" Keith with the pairing. And on the three goals against your complaint is that Leddy didn't cross the goalie on a shot from the point? To cover a stick? Sorry dude, but that is NOT a rookie mistake.
If you are going to complain about Keith being saddled with somebody (because they are inexperienced) pick a better example.
Amen, brother. Of course with me, you are preaching to the choir...
John if you are going to be a Chicago Blackhawks blogger, you need to know more about hockey. You need to learn the important facts:
Stan Bowman only got his job because of his father and doesn't know anything about hockey. So any decision he makes is based on pure whim.
To win at Hockey requires unmeasurable qualities in players so you should never bother to use stats.
Bryan Bickell doesn't play to his size. And positional awareness isn't important. You need big hitters on your checking line, someone like Troy Brouwer, instead of players like Bickell.
Patrick Kane doesn't take the game seriously and is a waste of his God given talent. And nothing he does on the ice makes up for him partying too much off it.
And Duncan Keith can't play hockey unless he is paired with Brent Seabrook.
Geez, John I thought you knew this stuff...
2 years, 10 months ago on Photoshop Of The Day: CarBomb, Thoughts On Hawks 4-3 Win Over Jets
I would hate to be a coach. If Olesz is having problems with his knee then it makes sense to rest him and play Scott or whomever your 23rd player was. If the Hawks are having problems with Olesz' attitude then that makes sense too.
It's unfortunate that it just can't be transparent what the plans are or what the deal is. 'Cause it would be interesting to find out what's what with Olesz.
Carcillo was brought in to be a top 6 replacement guy. Looking at this team with Kane at center it really does look like the Hawks have/had plans for Stalberg in the top 6. It will be interesting to see what the Hawks are going to look like with him in the lineup.
I thought that Mayers and O'Donnell were going to be the press box fillin guys because of their ages. Still might be that way but that 4th line still isn't making sense. Not if Kruger is going back down when everyone is healthy.
2 years, 10 months ago on Much Ado About CarBomb: Hawks Host Winnipeg Thrashers
@wardrums Actually, I thought Saturday was a little calmer. Friday was the day I was going wt???
2 years, 10 months ago on Q's Random Line Generator - The Dallas Games
@ChicagoNativeSon Well John, you have to start somewhere. Not sure where I'm jumping to any conclusions either. All I have really done so far is show facts. And show where the first two games of this year differ from last years primary strategies.
And as we go along I think we will be able to get a better grasp on what the Hawks are trying to do.
@ChicagoNativeSon Everything you said about Kane's line applied to Sharp's line last year. And Q was very reluctant to use Sharp at center in defensive situations last season.
And last year Jake Dowell would step up and the third line with Bickell and Fernando Freakin Pisani would at least play the other team's second line. With Frolik replacing Pisani that line should be better this year than last. It should be able to step up instead of having to play Kane in defensive situations. So I stand by what I said, the Hawks this year have NOT even replaced Jake Dowell's ability to be a replacement center.
@cliffkoroll I agree with you on the road and home games. It is just that I have been doing this investigation all of last season. And what I found is that Q generally "wins" the match-ups he prefers, even on the road.
@e.kim Hey, e thanks for showing up. And yes, we are trying to be a little bit more analytical and in depth here in some of our posts. Glad to hear when people find it interesting...
Yeah Cliff, a little but not as much as you would think.
Take the very first shift of the very first game. Q put Seabrook and Hjammer out there and Dallas didn't put out their first line. Immediately, Seabrook and Hjammer left the ice. Only to return when the Dallas top line went out on the ice.
Q does SO much more of that than the other team that he generally, eventually, gets his preferred match-ups.
@ChicagoNativeSon It is still a rob peter to pay paul kind of league. So if you have 4 high priced forwards and the other teams don't then you are at a disadvantage somewhere else. The next part I will compare the Hawks to the Bruins and Canucks. That should show the difference in salary cap approaches.
I thought the "Goals For/60" really showed that Hossa didn't have any help on that second line. Which contributes to his personal numbers being down. Which is why it is such a catch 22 for the Hawks. And I think that catch 22 is why Hossa was available in the first place. If a guy isn't your top winger on the top line you really can't afford the player. Hawks are the only team that has really tried 2 high priced wingers, let alone three.
I'm of the opinion that either Sharp or Kane has to play center on that second line or somebody needs to be traded to get that extra center, Centers are just too expensive to think you can find one cheap.
2 years, 11 months ago on Diminishing Returns - Part 2
@ChicagoNativeSon yeah, the goals against for non playoff team players was a surprise. Still trying to my head around that data.
I have graph's on the Hawks goals against compared to the playoff teams in the next article. And the "four big holes" weren't considered to be scrubs. Two were in fact core guys.
And I agree, the have and have not issue with the league is a big deal. Of course when it costs you a 600% increase in salary to get a 50% increase in points, well, I understand the reluctance to spend.
2 years, 11 months ago on Diminishing Returns - The Prelude
You know the league could just start to actually call charging again. If the players have gotten too big and the speed has gotten too fast, just calling charges removes all of that.
This Smith kid was skating backwards, turns around and makes six power strides then tries to "coast" for about 5 feet before he tries to put in an eviscerating hit. Seriously? Just call charging on the guy even if he makes a "legal" hit and most of this stuff just goes away.
2 years, 11 months ago on Wings Brendan Smith Suspended for Illegal Hit On Ben Smith
Interesting that with all those kids playing, Kruger was centering 22 and 13. Is he the 4th line center? Still don't get what the Hawks are doing.
2 years, 11 months ago on September Hockey: Thoughts about Turco, Keith, and the Hawks
Bryan how does Saad get his 9 games? Near as I can tell you've got 14 forwards ahead of him:
Patrick Sharp "A"
Jonathan Toews "C"
So for Saad to get the 23rd spot, you have to waive Scott and put either Smith or Kruger in the minors. Not sure they are going to do that with Kruger. They are still short on centers. So are you going to put Smith in the minors? You know the guy that was a "lock" for the team after the playoffs?
@ChicagoNativeSon I have been putting my insomnia issues to good use. I grabbed the summary game by game scoring info for the year into a spreadsheet. I will do that as the season goes along for next year. That should keep it from being as daunting of a task.
None of the data I have here has changed my opinions on lines from my very first blackhawkup article. I still have Brunette with DDN and Kruger getting the first shot at centering for Sharp and Hossa. Though I think the Hawks are looking at Olesz on one of those two lines if Kruger isn't the center. It still sounds like Frolik is the 3rd RW and not a top 6 guy.
It will also be interesting to see if Q goes with two checking lines on occasion instead of just the 3rd checking line/4th banger line approach. It would help to know who the Hawks have as their primary 4th line center. That would make it a whole lot easier to understand their approach.
2 years, 11 months ago on Can't we just Clone Toews?
@cliffkoroll I still had the DobberHockey FrozenPool shift info for Kane. That gave me the ratio between DDN playing with Sharp, Brouwer and Stalberg.
That let me adjust for the different percentages of playing with Toews and Kane.
And one other thing. Yeah I think the "eye test" can notice the 5+ extra goals that the Toews and Kane line scored when Sharp was on their line.
I don't think the "eye test" always notices the extra goals that that line gave up when Sharp was on that line. And it was the goals against that made 10-19-88 not really outperform the other combinations.
Yeah the "catch 22" that is Marian Hossa. It is hard to justify your salary when you don't play with a top line center. And the Hawks can't afford another top line center to play with Hossa BECAUSE of Hossa's salary.
There are reason's teams typically don't have three high priced wingers in their core. And the catch 22 reason is one of the big ones.
@cliffkoroll Nah, I would rather just talk about the bullshit coming out of Bowman's mouth that, well you know, was never ever really said by Bowman. That is the more mature thing to do.
And where is management still talking about Scott at forward? It's my understanding that Scott relayed to the Media what he was told by the team. That he should concentrate on defense in the offseason.
That pretty much tells me that if there aren't injuries on defense Scott isn't going to make the team. And you can probably expect him to be traded before the season starts.
2 years, 11 months ago on Why John Scott Isn't Going Away - Yet
@cliffkoroll Never understood why people get mad at Bowman over the incompetency of the local media. Bowman never stated that they traded for Frolik to play center.
And Bowman never even said "that was the plan all along" regarding Kruger. That was some 144 character twit paraphrasing a Bowman answer to the question "were you going to bring in Kruger before Bolland got hurt."
And the Scott statement was way overstated by the media as well. Coaches and GM's talk all the time about trying to get the backups more playing time and seldom ever really do.
Never understood why any of that is somehow Bowman's fault...
Yeah, that is the only way I see Scott making the team too.
Which is why I don't understand the info coming from the Tribune. Where the Hawks management was telling Scott to "only concentrate on defense." If that were true, Scott would pretty much have NO chance of making the team. So I don't see why the Hawks would say that.
From yesterday's article in the Chicago Tribune, "Bowman and Quenneville have told John Scott to concentrate on defense after he saw some time at wing last season."
So you think the Hawks are going to keep two extra defensemen and only one extra forward?
@cliffkoroll Yea, I noticed that too. There was a definite cause and effect issue with TOI. People always commented on the fact the Hawks tended to win when Campbell had the most Time on Ice. Somehow just playing Campbell more was the reason the Hawks won.
What I noticed was that Campbell having the most TOI was the effect of the Hawks playing well. When the Hawks played well, Q extended the bench. When the team played poorly, Q shortened the bench. So Campbell's additional TOI was the result of the team's play not the cause.
2 years, 11 months ago on What Went Wrong Last Year, And Will It Be Fixed?
Hey Brian, I'm firmly in the camp that says "Q didn't want to lose because of his bottom players." He only played them in situations he felt they could succeed. Which obviously wasn't very much ice time.
I'm also of the opinion that the strategy of the Hawks was to save as much "cap space" as they could to be able to add players later in the year. With that in mind, I have the season broken down into segments based on players added: Leddy, Campoli and Frolik. If we could see the 3rd period results, before and after these guys were added to the team, we could start to see if fatigue was indeed an issue. In particular, before and after Leddy/Campoli replaced those 500K guys. From my "eye test" I thought that was "the way of it" but I don't have any data to back that opinion up.
Sorry, I was dense on that. Caught up though...
2 years, 11 months ago on Around the NHL in 30 Days - It's The Chicago Blackhawks, Man!
When I looked at this, it was the drop in goals against this last season that made up for the lesser offensive production of last season's team.
Third periods I just thought "trying to play mostly 4 defensemen for an entire season" just took its toll.
That is why I still think Leddy, Montador and Lepisto >>> Campbell, Boynton, Hendry.
And I totally agree on the PK; Montador should really help. And don't forget that Lepisto got PK time too. You have 7 defensemen that you feel comfortable putting on the PK. Big change from previous years.
You got me. Bowman did say he wanted to get Scott more ice time. Bowman failed to mention that he was going to accomplish that by putting Scott in the AHL, though.
3 years ago on Tolkiens Take - The Two Towers
The "goals for and against" data compared to forward lines was all when 72 were together. The year data does indeed include times when 7 & 2 played with different defenseman.
And yes this is all 5o5 data. Seabrook was more a little more productive offensively than Campbell. And while Campbell had a great defensive year it WAS against easier opponents AND in more offensive situations. And being injured he did avoid most of Turco's problems and Sharp/Kopecky problems when they didn't have Hossa early in the year.
What John said, good defensive teams actually LOWER the goalies overall save percentage. They don't typically raise it. That is because good defensive teams have a tendency to block more outside shots compared to the overall shots against. This raises the ratio of tough shots compared to all shots against. And that lowers sv%.
3 years ago on Leddy Gaga, Part Two
@rayvalek PDO is similar to BABIP (Batting average Balls in play) in baseball. Generally, when the batters puts the ball in play they have around a 300 Batting average. Good hitters put the ball in play more, poorer hitters less so, which is why there is a difference in batting averages. When the average is based more on an abnormal BABIP you should view the results with some skepticism.
Good hockey players put themselves in position to put more shots on goal. However, their shot percentage is usually not all that much better then other players. They just get more shots.
Same with goals against. You compare the overall save percentage of the goalie and the save percentages of the defenders in front. Individual defenders usually change the number of shots at net more then the quality of those shots. So by the end of the year the save percentages of individual teammates should approach the norm. At least for that team.
Both Campbell's good numbers and Leddy's poorer numbers are outside the "normal" range for the teams PDO. That is why they should both be viewed with at least some skepticism.
@cliffkoroll Sorry, should have said Brunette or Sharp and Leddy/Keith
3 years ago on And Now For Something Completely Different: Defensive Pairings, Part 3
@cliffkoroll Why does everybody think the Hawks are going to go with those lines? Hawks have all these examples this past season on how the Hawks could and did use Leddy. In almost 2/3rds of them, Q split Hjammer and Campbell. When he did, he paired Hjammer and Seabrook and used Campbell as a 5th D-man.
72 is one of the best two-way pairs in the league. It makes sense to have them play with checking lines of Bolland/Havlat or Ladd and Versteeg. Lines that can also score.
It makes a whole lot less sense when they are paired with Bickell and or Olesz. Remember Bickell's offensive numbers this year had a whole lot of PDO "luck" associated to them. Even with that luck the Hawks scored a half goal less per 60 minutes of ice time with their checking line this last season compared to the previous.
And for all the "complaining" about Keith's "horrible" season, his goals against per 60 was eerily similar to his Norris winning season. It was his offensive numbers that were down.
And remember all the complaining about "how Kane didn't take the next step last year and become a serious Hart candidate?" Well adding Brunette/Sharp and Leddy/Keith to the top line on a consistent basis will give Kane the best chance to be more then a PPG player. I'm going to write about that one of these days...
@cliffkoroll Sometimes people's memories just don't "jive" with the stats. And sometimes they do. Keith's Corsi vs Fenwick numbers do show a shift in more blocked shots compared to the total shots for his time on ice. It was an issue and when you use Fenwick numbers (which remove blocks) you can see the shift..
The thing about Corsi is that it is only supposed to "infer" time on ice. It is NOT supposed to be the end all be all stat that some (see that Nucks dude) think it is.
To me Corsi and PDO are insights into Plus/Minus numbers. They don't "excuse" the results.
@cliffkoroll@ChicagoNativeSon You "beg the question" there don't you. Q "trusted" three D-Man last year in critical defensive situations: 72 and Hjammer.
Campbell had an awesome defensively responsible year last season. He just did it in more offensive situations against lesser talent. He just wasn't a top guy against the top guys defensive player.
Still, it will be harder for the new guys to replace the defensive results of Campbell last year, then his offensive exploits.
3 years ago on Nick Leddy: A Perfect Ten, Or Even Higher?
When Campbell was injured, half your D-men were some combination of Boynton, Hendry, Cullimore and Scott. That had more to do with missing Campbell then Campbell being injured.
The moves the Hawks made are in good measure to deal with D-man depth. And I am working on that as part of my next article.
And the "blown leads" were more an issue before Leddy and Campoli arrived. And having that extra depth arrive is one of the biggest reasons those issues became, well, less of an issue.
@cliffkoroll PDO is a stat created by Vic Ferrari. It looks at Sh% plus Sv% and expects it to be 100%. Players above that are perceived as "lucky." As John mentioned Players below that number are perceived as being unlucky. I think there is something to the idea that Keith was unlucky this last year.
To me the interesting part is looking at the players that are "always lucky." Those are the guys that "make their own luck." My understanding is that this stats has only been around for the last two years. In both of those years, Toews and Kane have been "lucky."
@antumbral.light Seabrook and Keith are two of the best two-way defensemen in the league. Thing is you can negate their two-way play by not having a good offensive checking line. With Pisani on the third line last year the Hawks did just that.
Last year Keith's Goals Against per 60 minutes of ice time was very similar between last year and the Cup year. It was his Goals For numbers that fell off dramatically. Playing with Leddy in offensive situations that Campbell was in last year would actually give Keith more offensive opportunities NOT less.
And yeah, Keith and Leddy were paired for 20 games last year. And I see them playing a good portion of this coming year together as well. And I totally agree with McClure, improvement on the team is going to come from better numbers from Keith. And I think he has a better chance of that teamed up with Toews and Leddy then he does in more typically defensive shifts.
What's the fun of no Math?
If Leddy gets the almost 14 minutes of 5o5 ice time he got last year and takes over the 2 minutes of Power Play time that Campbell was getting (and nobody else is really a candidate to fill), well, that is 16 minutes with really NO improvement in Leddy from last year. Any kind of improvement and well, ...