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@mb21 I have StL, Mil and Cin all in the 85-89 win range, and the Cubs around 80, post-Garza trade. Cubs are at around 10% to win the division, which I assume is a function of the fact that it'll be hard for any of the teams ahead of them to run away with the division if they're so evenly matched.
The problem for the Cubs is they have to beat all those teams, but stranger things have happened. Ask the Giants.
4 years ago on Conversation for http://www.anothercubsblog.net/chicago-cubs/projections/on-garzas-projection.html
Here's the deal with Garza's CAIRO.
As a Ray: 190 IP, 179 H, 24 HR, 65 BB, 150 K, 4.31 RA, 4.04 ERA, 4.38 FIPProjected league average RA for a Tampa Bay pitcher is 4.39.
Moving him into a neutral league and park: 190 IP, 181 H, 24 HR, 65 BB, 155 K, 4.32 RA, 4.05 ERA, 4.33 FIPNeutral league has a projected average RA of 4.55
As a Cub: 190 IP, 182 H, 25 H, 64 BB, 164 K, 4.36 RA, 4.08 ERA, 4.29 FIPProjected league average RA for a Cubs pitcher is 4.76.
The big issue here is park.
Tropicana field has suppressed offense by about 5% using a weighted average over the last four seasons.
Wrigley has boosted offense by about 6% using the same weighted average.
He's also moving to what looks like a league average defense at best compared to one of the top defenses in MLB, which causes his hits to go up a bit. So even though Garza's moving to a league where he should be more effective, his raw numbers appear unchanged. A 4.31 RA in a 4.39 RA park is not as good as a 4.36 RA in a 4.76 park obviously.
Now obviously we never really know how much park and league affect any single player, so it's really just an educated guess. In terms of WAR, if you use RA instead of FIP, Garza's projection in Wrigley would be worth close to a win more than his projection in Tampa Bay.
While retro-active WAR should be park and league-neutral, we can see variations in projected WAR for players switching teams if there are reasons to think the ballpark will affect their projection in some way above and beyond a simple runs per nine adjustment. I still think the Cubs overpaid, but Garza's a pretty good pitcher, and he'll be good for the Cubs IMO.