Author and editor of The 6th Sens.
@Oman Thanks for the question Oman. Eric Tulsky handled this question for NHLnumbers.com back in 2012. The reason why people continue to use proxies like Corsi or Fenwick is that it correlates strongly with scoring chances and zone time while serving as a good predictor of future goal scoring.
In terms of save percentages, here's a great article on team effects and even strength save percentage: http://objectivenhl.blogspot.ca/2011/05/team-effects-and-even-strength-save.html
2 weeks, 2 days ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/bringing-pesky-back.html
@TrevorKluke Wasn't it a hoodie with a cell phone still inside the pocket? Gold.
3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/shake-it-off-ottawa.html
@Sandysensfan love the passion Sandy. If we're talking recent player departures, I'm inclined to hang some of that on the owner (ie. Spezza and Alfie) -- mind you, if I'm in the Senators' position, I'm not sure I'd want to invest in Spezza moving forward anyway.
1 month, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/elliotte-friedman-speaks-bobby-ryan-issue-melnyk-approached-by-prospective-buyers.html
@Micklebot thanks for chiming in and you're right. I was simply referring to more disposable money coming in from another investor that can ideally be put towards payroll or go towards paying off the debt load (creating more financial flexibility down the road).
@bobby_kelly which is weird, because in the aftermath of the Alfie departure, people were generally happy with the outlook because they thought the team was better and younger on paper. The shitty part is that fans were sold on a rebuild and bought in, but the team expedited the process by overreacting to the Alfie decision. They had the opportunity to be more patient and grow the fan base's expectations slowly, but management and ownership made an all-in move on Bobby Ryan - knowing full well the risks associated with not being able to keep him in the fold.
Now that the possibility exists that Ryan could bolt, management doesn't seem to accept responsibility for the move and instead looks eager to pin it on Paul MacLean's handling of the roster. Make no mistake, Paul MacLean will be the fall guy if this goes south.
1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/bryan-murray-speaks-candid-interview-with-tsns-bob-mckenzie.html
@bobby_kelly they need guys who can move the puck on the back end too. They have a number of guys who handle the rock like it's a grenade.
@PalladiumDirt ... and threatened to move him if there's no contract extension.
@PalladiumDirt thanks for picking one up. The money goes to a good cause.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/report-senators-looking-to-add-top-9-forward.html
@T-Money Was that ever a prerequisite to participate for a drafted prospect?
2 months ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/senators-ownership-is-going-to-the-dogs.html
@bobby_kelly Methot's not an idiot. He knows he has all the leverage.
@carteciel Yeah, talked about it a bit when he signed his two-way deal earlier this summer: http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/derek-grant-signs-one-year-two-way-extension.html
2 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/prospecting-with-pronman-senators-top-10-prospects-revealed.html
Neglected to mention this in the post, but every team in the Atlantic Division had a higher ranked system than the Senators. Buffalo (1st), TB (2nd), Florida (5th) and Montreal (10th) were all ranked in the top 10.
2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/prospecting-with-pronman-senators-have-23rd-best-prospects-in-nhl.html
@FloAction @TrevorKluke Not sure they'd want to give that much term to Methot, but if the base salary is low like FloAction stated, maybe that works. I'm thinking it's going to be a 4-year pact worth $20-23M based off some of the contracts being handed out.
2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/methot-contract-negotiations-stall.html
@smilesic @Nichols6thSens @FloAction For the reasons outlined by the two of you, I'm not inclined to disagree. I think the organization feels like he's the "safe" choice however.
3 months ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/kyle-turris-keeps-rising-to-the-challenge.html
@FloAction Pretty safe to assume that it will be Philly.
@FloAction Melnyk doesn't strike me as the kind of individual who'd want to bring in a minority partner. It's his toy and he's not about to share it.
3 months ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/crossroads-contract-negotiations-update-with-lehner-and-impending-2015-ufas.html
@DanThibault fans won't change teams. The loyalty is too deep for that now, but I can see fans losing their patience and throwing more blame Melnyk's way.
@NutritionFacts except Hoffman's shot is pretty good - he even played decent minutes on the power play because of it.
3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/may-the-schwarz-be-with-you-hoffman-working-out-hard-in-ottawa.html
@Leajjes I suppose that's the rub of putting all the eggs in a line of Zibanejad, Stone and Hoffman.
@JeremyBridger He said it (and he did so in a joking manner), but I don't want to read too much into it.
3 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/melnyk-speaks-on-bnn.html
@VivianJordon @Sandysensfan the Alfredsson situation (and ultimately, his decision to leave) reminded me of how much a business sport actually is.
3 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/
@Sandysensfan there will always be a sect of the fan base that will wilfully believe everything that comes out of the mouth of the org.
@Sandysensfan top six depth will be tested if one of MacArthur, Turris or Ryan gets hurt. As bad as the Senators were last year, they were also incredibly healthy.
3 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/david-legwand-speaks-its-going-to-be-fun.html
@slavitch Having read Simmons for a number of years, he doesn't strike me as stupid. He strikes me as someone who's incredibly stubborn.
3 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/spezza-speaks-praises-stars-ownership.html
@UzeLogicPlz Great comment, thanks for posting.
For an org with limited finances like the Senators, it never would have made sense for them to retain Spezza beyond his current contract and for many of the reasons that you outlined, perhaps they can allocate the payroll more wisely now that he's gone.
@fmblair The problem is that we simply don't know how much of these revenues will be spent on things that aren't transparent to the common fan. Things like the debt load (with crazy high interest rates) and budgets for scouting and player development, which Melnyk has played up in previous interviews, are things that we cannot get a great handle on.
It's not satisfying for fans who want to see tangible proof that the Senators are investing their revenues wisely since they're not putting it back into their player payroll.
3 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/the-problem-isnt-the-internal-budget-its-the-senators-philosophy.html
@AlexLaney There's still time obviously, but it is somewhat surprising that the Sens have not improved their blue line at all this offseason. I suppose the org is hoping improvements from Wiercioch, Cowen and Karlsson will resolve the problems that plagued the group last season.
@percussivepiano I'd be more inclined to buy the argument that Sens fans won't support a rebuild if the Senators weren't papering the building during the team's popular semi-competitive "pesky Sens" days too.
Rightly or wrongly, there's no question that more and more Sens fans are vilifying Eugene Melnyk for the state of this team and if they keep up this cycle of mediocrity, will it only be a matter of time before many stop supporting him as an owner anyways?
3 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/
@beermooch I think everyone is going to be paying close attention to attendance figures this year, especially if the organization is true to their word and refuses to paper the building.
That being said, some people want to support the Senators not to support Eugene, but to do their part to support the hockey team.
3 months, 4 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/the-problem-isnt-the-internal-budget-its-the-senators-philosophy.html
@RyanH @Nichols6thSens It's a pretty hysterical idea, I'll give you credit for that.
@RyanH @Nichols6thSens easier said then done and that's why I kind of laugh when fans say that the team needs to spend. It's not as easy as just bumping your cap from $51M to $69M - still have to be smart about how the money is spent.
4 months ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/the-problem-isnt-the-internal-budget-its-the-senators-philosophy.html
@RyanH if it's Melnyk's intent to have a competitive team on a cheap payroll and then maximize the revenue streams, there's probably no better time to sell.
@boortjoon Yeah, I suppose if I'm going to poke fun at Murray for saying his name correctly, I may as well get the name right myself. Thanks.
4 months ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/bryan-murray-speaks-spezza-trade-bringing-michalek-back-blergh.html
@smilesic Working on a Ryan piece that should be posted in the next few days.
4 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/monday-news-and-notes-spezza-karlsson-wjhc-invites.html
@smilesic Appreciate that. Thanks.
4 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/bryan-murray-speaks-spezzas-market-trade-scenarios-michalek-offer.html
4 months, 4 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/report-senators-break-off-talks-with-ales-hemsky.html
@Leajjes Will pass along to the guys who run Bloguin, but I've never noticed them because I use AdBlock on my brower.
@fmblair I'd be more inclined to agree your assessment of holding onto Michalek/Spezza had the latter not allegedly asked for a trade in 2011 and had the former not piggybacked Spezza's production and Erik Karlsson's Norris Trophy winning season.
5 months ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/brad-may-on-the-daniel-alfredssonscott-niedermayer-incident.html
@Supersen Except he was right.
6 months ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/daniel-alfredsson-was-right.html
@FloAction @Nichols6thSens the way the Clarkson contract was written, it's essentially buyout proof because of terms contained therein. In a nutshell, there's no incentive to buy Clarkson out, because it doesn't save the Leafs much in the way of cap space.
6 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/uncategorized/senators-set-to-lose-staff-to-buffalo.html
@FloAction Interesting comment. I thought I've been pretty consistent with my "trade Spezza because it makes sense as a hockey decision and you can't afford to re-sign him and be wrong or can't afford to lose him for nothing" take.
6 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/2014-articles/spezza-mum-on-his-future.html
@FloAction Clarkson being the same UFA Clarkson that the Senators pursued aggressively?
@TrevorKluke Not a clue. What's that from?
6 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/uncategorized/thoughts-on-30-thoughts.html
@FloAction Small sample size, Flo?
7 months ago on Conversation @ http://the6thsens.com/uncategorized/pageau-promoted-jason-spezza-and-cowen-out-for-tonights-game.html
@FloAction What's the throwing the players under the bus in reference to?
7 months ago on Senators Content to 'Ride With Spezza as the Main Guy'?
@freewillig @jmikelittle Yeah, was weird hearing Murray say that in the interview. I think a few weeks (or a month or two ago) he mentioned that they could talk with these guys about it, but just couldn't do anything formal.
@sensuries much of what Wallace said doesn't sound like the sort of thing that he'd just throw out there for the sake of doing so.
7 months, 2 weeks ago on TSN's Brent Wallace Gets Candid On 'In The Box'
@sensuries too lazy to Google. What'd they write on Grant?
7 months, 4 weeks ago on Deadline Day Was Anything But Dead
@FloAction you can rule out him investigating the possibility of putting a casino there.
8 months ago on Cory Conacher and Joe Corvo Waived