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I don't know if you've miscalculated, misinterpreted or simply misrepresented the data here, but you've certainly done the last. There are problems here: "In the past ('85-'98), winning your conference in the regular season was a pretty reliable indicator of success in the playoffs, as that implied a ~71% chance of winning the holy grail." Not possible to win the conference in the reg. season. Not possible for each division champion to have a 71 pct. chance of winning the SB each year. I like the blog, but you've got to be careful writing about numbers & stats.

1 year, 6 months ago on What does it take to win an NFL Championship?

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