Jimisawesome
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This is nothing new even the B1G office publically stated they did homework on something like 20 schools during the time they added Nebraska. Vandy was one of the schools leaked before the Nebraska add. I am sure that there are a few other schools the B1G looked at in the SEC too namely UF. Just because they did their homework does not mean that either side was every close to thinking it was a possibility. But if UF was willing of course the B1G or any other conference would listen.
This reminds me of what happened in Baseball where Veeck warned owners to get in front of free agency before the courts did. And this is likely to happen in this case of O'Bannon v NCAA. You propose a remedy right now and the courts will bend over backwards to give it a chance force the courts to deal with the remedy and the schools are not going to like the results.
A stipend and some other minor rule changes that really will not cost the schools all that much and nothing really changes. Now imagine the court rules that players are allowed to individually bargain for a package see how cheap that ends up being. Right now the NCAA does not take kindly to legal representation of high school athletes wait until the courts open this can of worms.
Going by the leak and other rumors of what the new SEC deal looks like the T1/2 deal did not have a significant jump in revenue for SEC schools. When its actually officially announced it might be a competently different story but I can only go by the information that is out there. CBS fought giving more money and the leak shows they gave just a slight per school bump with the expansion. Adding FSU, Texas or OU would most likely change CBS tune to some degree but UNC is not going to be the A side for their pick in the near future. Again when they announce there might be a huge surprise. The bigger issue is the SEC has to work with in the framework of existing contracts and because of this does not have leverage while the B1G is about to go to market where it has all of the leverage. The B1G will be able to entertain bids from Fox, ESPN/ABC and NBC/Comcast. Fox and NBC/Comcast both are or have started sports channels that aim to go after ESPN and need content. ESPN cant afford to lose B1G content as its a huge money maker for them and they don't want Fox or NBC to have the content to compete against them. Basically B1G hit the lottery in terms of timing while the ACC contract came up at the worst possible time.
As for the demographic talk its not the south in general that is growing in population compared to the B1G states its the Atlantic Seaboard and Texas that are growing. States like KY, AR, AL, MS, and LA have a growth rate similar to that of the B1G states and less overall growth because B1G states in average are larger to begin with.
The culture you are speaking of is fan culture which is of minor importance. What matter is campus culture more specifically do schools share a vision of what they want from their universities. The B1G schools for example are all large research centers. The schools that most would say are desirable like UNC, VT, GT, UVA, Duke, and even FSU are all large research centers. But even using your version of culture FSU which is probably the most SEC school on the surface actually recruits more non athletic students from the Midwest then it does from the non Atlantic SEC states. Illinois alone sends more students year in year out then Mississippi and Alabama together and those 2 states boarder Florida and fairly close to Tallahassee. Michigan would be the state that sent the most kids to FSU if it was in the SEC behind GA and Texas. In the B1G Michigan is 6th in sending kids to FSU.
There are reasons schools that have a choice might very well end up in the SEC. The point I am trying to make though is the SEC is not in control and would have to make an awesome pitch to overcome what the B1G can offer.
It does not work like that for anyone where they can just chose to go on their own terms or pick schools on their own terms well except Big East schools. There is nothing to indicate that UNC is anything but happy in the current ACC and for that matter even with all the chatter that GT and UVA are talking to the B1G it very well might be do we have a place if the ACC falls apart. Most of the schools in the ACC are actually happy in the ACC. The schools in the ACC recruit their OOS regular students from the footprint for the most part. After graduation if a student leaves its mostly to areas in the footprint. The ACC sponsors a lot of sports and overall is very competitive with the Pac for the directors cup.
With that out of the way and assuming that schools are going to leave many have several choices while some are limited. If forced the presidents of the ACC would all rather go to the B1G over the SEC. This is not to insult the SEC in anyway but the simple fact is the B1G has a name brand academic reputation that is world wide in academic circles. The B1G offers the CIC which while its benefits tend to get overblow in expansion talk still has value to the schools. The B1G sponsors more sports and the indications are they are willing to add some important sports to mid Atlantic schools. The biggest plus for the SEC over the B1G is baseball but the B1G schools have spent and are spending a ton to upgrade their facilities. Football is a wash because Michigan or Alabama you are selling out at premium pricing. And of course there is the straight cash homey. The B1G already has a successful and profitable conference owned network after the vesting period a school is good to go. The SEC has not made the details public yet of its network and even if everything goes perfectly (which it won't) it will still take years for it to hit current BTN numbers just because of the nature of the footprint. The B1G also is about to have its T1/2 rights go on the market where they can have multiple bidders while the SEC has to go back to CBS and ESPN to ask for more money.
The SEC very well might land its dream expansion candidates but at this point they are the second choice for the ACC presidents if they move at all.
@Roggespierre @SouthernBoiSB @JRsec @AllTideUp
This on the LHN. The rumor is ESPN is shopping now at or below cost and not getting bites from the big cable providers. There just is not enough content to make it worthwhile. The BTN was able to grow faster then the NFL network because the BTN had content almost year round.
@SouthernBoiSB @JRsec @AllTideUp
Travel issues are a bit overblown. Sure you travel in your revenue sports but sports like Golf, Tennis, Sand Volleyball, Swimming etc are done mostly at meets with regional schools that might or might not be in your conference. Usually its only the conference tournament or finals that is the only in conference meet.
If the most important rule is think like a president the second most important rule is no body wants to go to the B12.
But to bring this back to the more general the Big 10 is in control because the Big 10 offers the most across the board that make University presidents happy. The CIC, academic prestige, sponsors the most sports, the most exposure, and of course they will have the most money by far once their T1/2 deal goes out to bid for 2016 and can go on the open market. This is not to take away from the SEC at all they are the clear 2nd choice if not the 1b choice for ACC schools that are either looking or forced to leave.
The B12 on the other hand is the last choice and Dr Barron president of FSU email laid out the reasons why. The B12 could offer FSU tomorrow and even say pick you 5 bffs and the answer would be we will get back to you until Delaney and Silve file a restraining order.
Gong to 9 or 10 is not adding games its changing the make up of the games. Currently the B1G has 8 B1G games plus 4 OOC games. This would just change it to 9 or 10 B1G games and 3 or 2 OOC games. For schools like Illinois or IU this makes sense as playing Michigan more often is a bigger deal then playing a similar brand level OOC.
I think the AAU screwed up and its supposed to be UM Baltimore not Baltimore County. Looking at more recent fed research numbers its Baltimore that has the 300 plus million in fed dollars as well as it being a Med School.
A bit more on UAB they have 2 of 9 areas where they rank in the top 50 in fed funding both life sciences.
The AAU list I have only goes to 126 (top 130 schools but ties as you can see). The list was made when Cuse was still a member but they are not included in that top 130. In FY 2010 they only did 33.8 million in federal research. Its very likely they would not make the top 150 or even 200 in the AAU formula. VPI in FY 2010 162 million for a point of reference GT and BU the 2 newest members did almost twice as much. Note I am talking fed dollars as this is the biggest weight for AAU. Utah did 227.
VPI is no doubt moving up and getting closer I think they would need to do about another 75 million in fed dollars to have a real chance.
If you want to look for the list the title I have it under and I don't believe I changed it is UNLAAU.pdf
@Roggespierre @Jimisawesome @JRsec
UAB wont get an invite because there research dollars are almost exclusively med research. While med research is extremely important research needs to be more well rounded then just 1 field. I could be 100 percent wrong here but I always had the impression that UAB undergrad was more commuter school which will not help their case.
I have the leak of the Nebraska AAU report on PDF (its fairly hard but not impossible to find around the internet) that has the internal ranking by the AAU with their 2005-2007 rankings. The rankings should not be hugely different to now.
The rankings of schools that are not currently AAU go like this
37 Dartmouth College
40 UAB
43 Tufts
43 Maryland-Baltimore County (I know little about them and I don't understand their ranking given the inputs)
49 Utah
52 UC Santa Cruz
57 Wake Forrest
59 Miami (FL)
61 UI Chicago- Another case of med school dominated research
62 Cincinnati
67 Oregon State
I am going to skip to just FBS schools of note from now on
79 U Hawaii
81 UConn
87 ASU
87 USF again a case of med school dominated research
90 UMASS
91 VPI
91 NCST
91 OU
94 FSU
94 lowest ranked current AAU (they don't give the name of AAU schools my guess KU)
96 Louisville
96 UK
99 Notre Dame
100 Ole Miss
109 Nebraska when they got kicked out for a point of reference
110 UGA
112 LSU
123 KState
123 Clemson
I do see AAU politics and politics in general playing a role in the B1G decisions. The B1G only has 1 school that is even near the bottom tier of AAU schools with IU the rest are solidly to the top of the AAU ladder. The schools closest to the Nebraska/Cuse line is Kansas and Iowa State.
UGA is not really close to AAU status. The next 2 FBS schools in line for an AAU invite look to be Utah and Miami.