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@Jayjaybe It seems like you're dismissing Kyle's conclusion without actually touching how he arrived there. What are your thoughts on the points he made about yards per carry number being inflated by Andrew Luck's spontaneous runs and two backs who are no longer healthy? Or how the run game has been performing since Ballard and Bradshaw went down? Or the 3:2 pass to run play ratio? Or the fact that Donald Brown's big runs (the only thing making our run game look alright over the past 3 games) have come out of passing formations?
1 month, 2 weeks ago on The BP Watch: The Colts Are Not 5-2 "Because They Are Run-First"
It's ridiculous how few people I encounter outside of this blog understand these simple premises despite having watched the games themselves. You've gotta feel a bit like Mugatu from Zoolander. "DOESN'T ANYBODY ELSE NOTICE THIS??? I FEEL LIKE I'M TAKING CRAZY PILLS!!!"
Excellent job, by the way, Kyle.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on The BP Watch: The Colts Are Not 5-2 "Because They Are Run-First"
@Wpmsd What I'm getting at is that Otto Graham played 4 years in the AAFC, not the NFL. That's where his best statistical years and over half his championships came from; for four years he wasn't playing against the best football players in America. Don't get me wrong, the man is still an all-time great, and he still had a lot of success in the NFL, but his achievements, while obviously significant, aren't of the "holy crap automatic GOAT" variety that some tend to think they are when looked at in context.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on How Would One More Super Bowl Win Change the Legacy of Brady, the Mannings and Others
@Goéland @Fondue @DougEngland Yeah, makes me kinda sick, too. There's no doubt that a slight bit of disappointment lingers over the last decade. How could it not? I LOATHE counting Lombardis but change two plays out of thousands (say,Vandy's shank in 05 and we get the ball 1st in OT, followed by Baskett doing his job in 09), and we're one of the all time great dynasties, Peyton undisputed GOAT, and a few more classic Colts in the HOF. But I still wouldn't trade our run for anyone else's, NE included. As Nate once said, when all's said and done what really matters most is the amount of Sundays spent happy. Combine that number with the personalities that went into it and you've got something very special indeed. Go horse (both blue and orange).
2 months ago on Hitchhiker's Guide to What Peyton Manning Means to Me
@John O Dwyer Perhaps if today's QBs played in a semi-pro league for almost half of their careers they would have had comparable achievements.
2 months ago on How Would One More Super Bowl Win Change the Legacy of Brady, the Mannings and Others
@DougEngland Meanwhile, what do this game and this season mean for Peyton? How about potentially being the first team to go 19-0 (early, I know, but hardly out of the question)? Or at least winning another ring (and if the AFC stays close every game matters for seeding)? Does anyone understand how huge that is for the franchise's savior, the one who put this team on the map and completely revitalized a city? He's had a few bad games in the postseason (and what QB hasn't), but another ring is going to completely transform the guy's legacy (and make it a hell of a lot easier for guys like us to defend him from internet forum troglodytes). So I'm just going to have to say it. I think I'm gonna pull for Peyton in this one. What the game means for him vs. what it means for us is night and day.
@DougEngland I used to comment a lot more on 18to88 and the wee infancy of CA, before PT school started, but what you wrote, times 10. Seems like you, Pierre, and Goéland (among many others in this, the most passionate and reasonable Colts blog I've ever seen) can actually begin to fathom where I'm coming from in this game. I mean geeze, I'm always going to root for any Indiana team, but this, this is just...different. Peyton is what got me into the entire institution of sports as a high school freshman, what got me away from video games and comic books (not that there's necessarily anything wrong with those things). I'm not going to say he altered the course of my life or anything, but what he (and the rest of those classic Colts) gave me was pretty much irreplaceable. The championship window we have with Luck is huge, and it ain't even really open yet. Barring a catastrophic injury, they're gonna win the division. And then what? In today's NFL you never know, maybe the get hot, but their chances of actually winning it all is still pretty freakin' nil. So suppose we overachieve and lose in the AFC Championship. Will it even matter two years later?
@beacon1950 What a load of crap. Favre struggled at first because he was a young QB, in his first and second seasons. Was it Reggie who caused Favre to throw all those touchdowns and win 3 straight MVPs?
2 months, 1 week ago on How Would One More Super Bowl Win Change the Legacy of Brady, the Mannings and Others
@lucktab @Bobman1 That's a pretty lazy line of thought. Obviously the Colts were heavily built around Peyton, but the questions that need to be asked are whether that's a reasonable standard to hold anyone to and whether the fact that the Colts lost means that he played poorly.
Game 1: Peyton leads the team to a would-be game-winning field goal. Vandy shanks it, he never sees the ball again as the D gives up the losing points.
Game 2: Look at the two drives. The second to last one ended with four shots at the goal. One a run to get slightly better position (a reasonable enough move). Another he missed Dallas Clark, I'll give you that. Next play literally nobody was open and the announcers raved about the D coverage that yielded nothing. Fourth down he was sacked in 2 seconds because of a missed block. And on his final drive he hit Clark, who let it go through his hands. So yeah, one of those plays he should have made, but look at all the other crap that happened. Overall still a very good game played.
Game 3: In addition to what Bobman has said, on 3rd and 2 the first down could have easily been made if a) the Colts had a reasonably competent running game, and b) the tight end hadn't forgotten the snap count, getting Peyton sacked immediately after the hike. If you want to cite other players being the reason Peyton should be held more accountable, at least make sure they do their jobs.
Game 4: I have my own bones to pick with Peyton for not going to the run more against this Saints D, but the INT was on Reggie. The throw was fine. If you want to look at a second-by-second breakdown of why that is (from an unbiased Cleveland Browns blog, look no further: http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2010/2/19/1302008/rufios-playbook-breaking-down
Game 5: When comparing the regular season to any given postseason game, you HAVE to look at what's different. Peyton lost his starting TE, slot receiver, and several pieces of an already sketchy line from what he had during the 2010 season. His best weapon was being covered by the best corner in the league and the run game was completely and utterly futile. Furthermore, the Colts had less possessions to score points and dealt with worse starting field position than in the regular season.
Nate Dunlevy's original site, 18to88.com, taught me to look actually look at the numbers in context, why things are the way they are beyond cliched talking points (a skill that carries over well to most other areas of life, especially politics). How can you possibly say, "oh, well, he's the QB, so it has to be on him" and leave it at that? When you have all the stats, all the play by plays, all the video footage of how things went down, why would you not do everything in your power to use those to make an informed decision? Playoff wins come from everyone doing their jobs when they have to do them. The Colts were typically run all over in the playoffs. More runs mean more time mean less possessions mean less points on both sides, means the offense looks worse and the defense looks better. Peyton also has the worst starting playoff field position of any QB since 1980. Worse starting field position means more yards need to be picked up means points are harder to come by. Then you have to account the many, many other people who need to perform competently. This does not happen equally between teams. Peyton hasn't been perfect in the playoffs (possibly cost us a SB in 03, you can pick out a few other moments here and there), but the bottom line is when dealing with the very small sample size in a situation that deals with a lot of evenly matched teams that consist of 21 other players not even counting STs, it's exceedingly possible for a player's team's record to not be a good representative of how that player actually performed.
@buymymonkey @tim55 Eh, yeah, that interception was stupid and on him. He played very well the rest of the game, but he ended it for them. That doesn't mean that the garbage people wrote about him with the Colts was true (crap performances 02 and 03 notwithstanding, of course). He's still no worse in the playoffs than Brady or Ben or anyone else of this era other than potentially Brees and Warner.
11 months, 1 week ago on Luck Won More than Games this Season
Meh. Peyton had a great O-line until his last 3 seasons. Then the wheels came off completely. But yeah, this unit blows.
1 year ago on Daniels: Luck Needs a Better O-Line
@pierrezombie Ah, fair enough. I probably just got pissed because I saw him making the same arguments that I'd seen coming from a lot of explicitly anti-Peyton guys on forums and didn't finish it. For what it's worth, though, I think that a replacement-level QB would have gotten the Colts 6 or so wins.
Good call on the draft analysis. We've been spoiled here.
1 year, 2 months ago on The Once and Future Colt: Slinging It | Articles
@pierrezombie Good to see SOMEONE stand up to Simmons' unsubstantiated BS. I need to start listening to those podcasts!
Here's the article. Barnwell predicted 6-7 wins for a Manning-led 2011 Colts. I never thought he had an agenda, but this was the first article of his I read and it was on a Simmons-produced site so I had my reasons for being a little bit skeptical at first. Pretty sure CA commented on it.
@pierrezombie You know, I was actually predisposed to hate Bill Barnwell the first time I found out about him through his anti-Colt article last year, saying that the Colts would have sucked even if Peyton was there. I didn't think it was delusional at all to believe that they could have had another good season last year with Peyton considering that in 2010 they were really as injured as they'd ever been and still only lost two games that weren't decided by one score. Then there was some article this year where he mentioned that Peyton's 02-09 was the greatest stretch by a QB ever and all of a sudden he was alright by me :P.
Anyway, yeah, that article seemed spot on. Can't wait for that post-bye stretch. The interesting thing will be whether he'd still make that mythical "Top 5 QBs ranking". Really annoying how many elite QBs there are anymore, though some of that may have been inflated from last year's ginormous passing aberration.
@pierrezombie Yeah, at the end of the day, if some benevolent cosmic force asked me if I'd rather Peyton won 1 or multiple rings in Denver (assuming the Colts couldn't win those years), I'd go with multiple, but it'd definitely be bittersweet. I guess I keep rationalizing that with one ring, I can have my cake and eat it too. He'd be up there with Unitas, Brady, and Montana as a force that has to be acknowledged in any GOAT discussion; no matter what he has a STRONG argument, while still being remembered first and foremost as a Colt. Two more would put him in Montana territory, though his legacy is just so strong (look at those numbers in his SB runs) that Peyton would have to play lights out in all those games he'd hypothetically win AND break all of Favre's records to remove all doubt. But he'd also be at least 50% remembered as a Bronco, whether it should be that way or not. Still gotta root for that outcome, but like I said, bittersweet.
And these low amounts of turnovers have come facing the likes of Jay Cutler, Christian Ponder, Adrian Peterson, and Blaine Gabbert... uh oh.
1 year, 2 months ago on Looking Forward: The Colts Need Turnovers | September
I think what I would really need to come to grips with is if Peyton somehow managed to win multiple rings in Denver. Seems like if he wins just one he would still be "ours" in all the history books, but two? I don't think I could bear sharing a significant portion of his legacy :/
@pierrezombie @Fondue I'd say that it's certainly more likely that a team with a great quarterback is more likely to win a Super Bowl, but the buck stops there. As you've implied before, SO much happens due to chance. We switch Vanderjagt's Steelers game and Vinatieri's 01 postseason and Brady vs. Manning probably isn't so lopsided in the eyes of the press and casual fans, and that result would not have involved either QB playing any differently. In fact, with so many one possession games that went Brady's way during his SB runs, one wrong play by ANY bit role player could have just as easily landed him with zero rings, and lord knows he didn't exactly light the world on fire in most of those games he won (04 postseason excluded). I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but sheesh, gotta vent somewhere, ya know?
@pierrezombie Jeez, I know. That's the damnedest thing. People are either too stupid or too uncomfortable with deviating from the traditional narrative to admit the sheer randomness of it all. Call it football existentialism, but I just can't accept the notion that the amount of rings one has is directly proportional to QB performance. People keep swallowing this bullsh!t about taking Eli over Peyton because "he gives them a better chance", it's ludicrous. Hopefully karma can send Peyton out with another 'ship and all this nonsense can finally end.
Assuming they can consistently get the offense humming like it did in the second halves of Pittsburgh and Houston, and with this defense, what do you think Denver's odds are at a Super Bowl in the next 2-3 years?