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The strength of my man-crush for T.Y. can no longer be contained. It must take the form... OF A JERSEY.

3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@Kyle RodriguezHere's some more context: Irsay was arrested for driving completely intoxicated on a public street, a serious danger to himself and others. Brazil failed an offseason drug test for a substance he may even have obtained and consumed completely legally.

Their league punishments are comparable, but in public Irsay gets all of his felony charges dismissed after a short stint in rehab and was the subject of numerous fawning essays speaking sympathetically about the hell of addiction. Brazil likely just gets cut, and if so has probably played his last snap in the NFL.


Kravitz was addressing the public response and it's a pretty significant difference. It's hard to ignore that one of these guys is rich and white and the other isn't.

3 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@Kyle Rodriguez Kravitz and King could start with, "I'm a big hypocrite and I should stop taking potshots at easy targets."

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Hot Takes on Jim Irsay

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The point is that the same concern and compassion is not usually shown to players who struggle with addiction. Irsay already has less accountability from the league because, as you point out, nobody can cut him or suspend him. The fact that he's also getting soft treatment from writers who depend on him for access is what sticks in KSK's craw (and mine too).

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Hot Takes on Jim Irsay

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@AJ_ Don't bet on Bob "Unnamed Sources" Kravitz to start catching hell now.

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Jim Irsay Arrested on DUI and Drug Possession Charges

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This is brilliant. We even have $14MM left to go get Alex Mack. Because it's not like we'll need to sign any first round picks this year...

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Colts Sign WR Hakeem Nicks to a 1-Year Deal

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If you combined Luck and Hasselbeck into one hybrid QB named MANDREW HASSELUCK, his total cap hit in 2013 was just north of $8.5MM, barely edging out Alex Smith for 16th place among all QBs. Next year's cost for the HASSELUCK rises to just shy of $9.8MM which still would have been only 14th place in 2013.


Granted $3.5MM is a lot to spend on the backup QB but overpaying for a savvy veteran for two years when they're flush with cash isn't a terrible sin. Luck had a great rookie season but he wouldn't have been the first promising rookie to stumble in year 2. If they feel Luck is truly ready now and they want to save some money, cut Hasselbeck and save $2.25MM. Problem solved.

9 months, 2 weeks ago on Grigson, Colts Entering Crucial, Defining Off-season

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@hankster On the TD drive Donald Brown really caught fire. Then at the 4-yard line Brown gets pulled for Richardson, who promptly runs up the middle for no gain. Even from the upper deck I thought Luck looked pissed as he walked toward the sideline and sure enough T-Rich came right back out and Brown in to run 4 yards for the TD.

Luck looked officially sick of this bullshit.

11 months ago on Colts come up with the Win 22-14 over Tennessee

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@hankster You're always more likely to make mistakes when you're in a hurry. Up-tempo is riskier early on when the defense is fresh. But defenses get tired quicker than offenses, so going up-tempo late to take advantage of a fatigued defense has more advantages than disadvantages. That's how I've heard it explained.

12 months ago on Halftime Adjustments and T.Y. Hilton, plus Players Weigh in on Incognito and Kubiak

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@MarcusDugan Probably, yes. But you can't challenge the call or non-call of a penalty. They would have been challenging the "block" (wink-wink) and I'm not sure why they would be able to since the "block" wouldn't have changed the outcome of the play, only the penalty.

It would have been straight-up gaming the challenge rules to fish for a penalty. I'm often in favor of this because the challenge rules suck and deserve to be abused but it was still early in the game and arguably not the best time to pull out that stunt.

I do hope Pagano brought it up when he was chewing out the refs for stealing the fumble recovery. "Hey, I played nice and didn't complain when you missed that penalty, now you're taking this away from me too??" We got some make-up calls in the second half so maybe he did.

12 months ago on Colts Show up Late, Storm Back to Beat the Texans 27-24

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@smonroe I heard them saying that too but I'm not really sure why it should work. The punt was recovered by the Texans, not the Colts, so it wouldn't make a difference to the outcome of the play if it had been blocked or not. Challenging the "block" would have been only a technicality to go on a fishing expedition for the penalty. Which with these officials might have turned out even worse somehow.

12 months ago on Colts Show up Late, Storm Back to Beat the Texans 27-24

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@Candlebox Sam Bradford and Doug Martin are also done for the year. And that was just this week. This is an absolutely brutal year for injuries, even by football standards.

1 year ago on Colts Hang on to Beat Denver 39-33

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Not sure how Grigson makes a move to replace Reggie. Too many other bidders driving up the price and our first round pick is already gone. My fear is that this win goes to Grigson's or Irsay's head and they just totally mortgage the team's future to chase a deep playoff run.

1 year ago on Colts Hang on to Beat Denver 39-33

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This was painful to watch. Drops aside, the offense moved with no sense of urgency and telegraphed their plays badly.

Slowing down the tempo is what bad teams do to keep the game close and try to steal a win with fluky turnover. The Colts did not need to do that here. This was absolutely a winnable game and Luck can hang with Rivers shot for shot. As bad as Arians seemed to want to get Luck killed, at least he let Luck try to go win instead of shackling him to a bad run game.

I'm starting to wonder if the stubborn insistence on running comes from the very top. Irsay let Polian hitch the whole team to Peyton and when Peyton's wheels came off, everything else collapsed too. Do Irsay and Pagano think they can reduce the team's dependence on Luck by holding him down?

1 year ago on Tuesday Morning Moaner: Colts at Chargers

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I have a sizeable man-crush on Chase Stuart. I'd like to be him when I grow up, kthx.

Reading his work is a good antidote for my sadness over Collie signing with the Patriots. THANKS, OBAMA.

1 year ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Seahawks

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@buymymonkey Tell them they should tank their season, making sure to have the worst point diff in the NFL to secure the #1 pick.

What's that you say? Already in progress? ;)

1 year, 1 month ago on The Colts Steamroll the Jaguars 37-3

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@Bobman1 YES. I raged at that FG. It was weak sauce. My friends are like, "eh, they're just being conservative". THAT'S NOT A GOOD THING, GUYS.

The only possible justification I could imagine is that they had gone scoreless through the first quarter and were down 0-3 with the Jags score coming off an pick. So they came away from that drive with no points it would be... really demoralizing? Or something? But the Jags offense had been so laughably ineffective so far, I don't think they had anything to fear.

I was really afraid they were going to let the Jags hang around by settling for FG's instead of TD's. Glad to see I was totally wrong. :D

1 year, 1 month ago on The Colts Steamroll the Jaguars 37-3

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@RobertItoh @jimfix Conversely, how many of those postseason losses were due to our famously high-octane offense running out of gas at the worst possible moment? I count very few that I blame on defensive collapse.

1 year, 1 month ago on The Trent Richardson Trade: A Closer Look

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Knowing now where the Browns were willing to sell Richardson, how would we feel if it had been MJD or CJ with the injury and Richardson going to a division rival?

1 year, 1 month ago on The Trent Richardson Trade: A Closer Look

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@DougEngland It could mean that small sample sizes are more likely to yield freaky results.

Or it could mean that Pagano lacks clutchiness! TEACH THE CONTROVERSY.

1 year, 1 month ago on Hitchhiker's Guide to Colts at 49ers, NFL Week 3

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Richardson was also a top receiving back last year. That's significant for a team that just lost its best short-range target for the year.

*sheds single tear for Allen*

1 year, 1 month ago on The Trent Richardson Trade: A Closer Look

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I'm going to keep holding hope that this is temporary.

This team just isn't good enough yet to produce many blowouts. They're still learning how to play together, unlike the "old regime" that kept a stunning amount of consistency for a number of years. Stay on individual guys to fix their mistakes but the team as a whole needs to keep their confidence up and "no style points" is as good a mantra as any right now.

It's sad that Mathis has apparently bought into the history rewrite that certain vocal media hacks in Coltsland love to push. As great as Luck is and will be, there's still going to be plenty of sour grapes feeling every time Peyton puts up a great game without a horseshoe on his helmet.

1 year, 1 month ago on Winning, With Style!

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The entire O-line was awful. Luck sacked four times, forced to scramble and bail out the offense with his feet? Holy shit, guys!!! My time machine to 2012 worked!!!

1 year, 1 month ago on Monday Morning Moaner: Colts vs Raiders

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This game was a battle to see who could beat themselves. The Colts' O-line went into complete brain lock and our CBs milled around like they were at a convention. Meanwhile Sea Bass shanked a kick that would have won them the game and we learned that Pryor should never attempt a pass longer than 10 yards. Fortunately their screw-ups were worse than ours.

The good news is it wasn't as bad as getting bossed by Chicago in week 1 last year. Once they settle down and find their feet this team still has plenty of great games in it.

Also, you can't spell "ugly win" without WIN.

1 year, 1 month ago on Recap: Colts Edge Raiders at Home, 21-17

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In the second GIF it looks like Cherilus got brainlocked by the combination of Kruger's footwork and the safety blitz heading right for him. In his defense, if he lets Kruger draw him too far outside he leaves a gaping hole for that safety to fly right past Ballard. So it's not that bad of a derp.

But it also looks like Kruger then grabs Cherilus and pulls him to the ground from the side. That's some bullshit right there. Cherilus' "momentum" didn't fling him down onto his right shoulder. That should have been five yards, automatic first down.

1 year, 2 months ago on How Winston Justice Got Owned by Paul Kruger, and Injured Anthony Castonzo in the process

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@MarcusDugan @smonroe My first thought was for Griff Whalen. Bringing in another KR/WR isn't a vote of confidence in Whalen's ability to secure the #5 WR job.

1 year, 2 months ago on Trade: Colts Acquire WR/KR David Reed from Baltimore for RB Delone Carter

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@unitas19 Championships are built on depth. Looks like Grigs understands that.

1 year, 2 months ago on Trade: Colts Acquire WR/KR David Reed from Baltimore for RB Delone Carter

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@Bobman1 "Plus, the Colts did not draft Cunningham to detail Irsay's car."

This earns a +1 all by itself.

1 year, 3 months ago on Weslye Saunders Suspended Eight Games for PED Abuse

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@paulcareyjr @Kyle Rodriguez I still like Brown but I'll eat my hat if there's anyone willing to trade for him...

1 year, 4 months ago on What do the Ahmad Bradshaw talks mean for the Colts?

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@AJ_ By that metric just about any deal for Bradshaw is defensible. Colts are way close to the bottom in RB spending. Giving Bradshaw $4MM this year wouldn't even get them to the top 10 and they'd still be last in the AFC South. And Brown with this $1.7MM this year would have to be on the bubble in that group.

1 year, 4 months ago on What do the Ahmad Bradshaw talks mean for the Colts?

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@AJ_ How much is too expensive? Shonn Greene went to the Titans for 3yr/$10MM/$4.5MM. Bradshaw is better but with injuries and more miles on his tires. Also the Giants cut Bradshaw rather than pay him $3.75MM this year.

I'm thinking Greene's deal is the yardstick here. If the Colts get Bradshaw for less then I'm happy.

1 year, 4 months ago on What do the Ahmad Bradshaw talks mean for the Colts?

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I thought there was talk about Kerwynn Williams as the #3 back. Some people make it sound like he might be the second coming of Darren Sproles. So does this mean they see Williams as KR/PR only, at least for this year?

1 year, 4 months ago on What do the Ahmad Bradshaw talks mean for the Colts?

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*Breaking News: Shit a Coach Says In February Means Little In June, Less In September.*

Just teasing. Great writeup! I love how grounded Luck is already. Peyton had the self-effacing humor down well but, frankly, it always seemed a little rehearsed. Luck's feels more natural. Am I making that up?

1 year, 4 months ago on Colts Notebook: One More Day of OTA’s

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@Kyle Rodriguez @squirrel Oh, FFS. Nevermind, I see the problem now. You're looking at the drive finder and I was looking at the season stats page. For some goddamned reason PFR's numbers are different on different pages. Which are yet still different from the numbers FO uses.


Football stats are such a mess.

1 year, 5 months ago on Series Introduction: 2012 Redzone Performance

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@Kyle Rodriguez@squirrel FO is clearly only using regular season drive stats. If you included postseason numbers you'd be comparing different numbers of games for each team, which makes no sense, and the Colts still probably wouldn't be 4th.

I think FO just muffed their math in that chart.

1 year, 5 months ago on Series Introduction: 2012 Redzone Performance

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Okay, I see where FO has the Colts ranked 4th in yards per drive but I still don't see how they got that number. Even if you discard take-a-knee drives as FO does, I only get an average of 32.95 yards/drive which should still put the Colts at 12th on their chart.

Grr, black box statistics...

1 year, 5 months ago on Series Introduction: 2012 Redzone Performance

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"The Colts' below-average performance in the redzone (18th overall) was exactly the reason why the team was able to pick up a ton of yards (4th in yards per drive), but were below average in points per drive (18th, ironically)."

According to PFR, I'm only seeing the Colts ranked 12th in yards per drive. Is your number perhaps adjusted for starting position? Because the Colts were 30th in that stat (average drive starting at their own 25.0).

1 year, 5 months ago on Series Introduction: 2012 Redzone Performance

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Thanks, @buymymonkey! Always liked yours too.

1 year, 5 months ago on T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen look like huge steals after one year

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@Kyle Rodriguez @squirrel That's the point though, that total AV is misleading. Do seasons with AV of 1 or 2 really matter? It shouldn't be hard to find a FA who would provide that level of value at a league-minimum salary.

By the chart Hilton already has returned the value of his pick even if he never plays again. That's precisely what the chart tells us, that roughly half the guys picked at that spot never reached the value that Hilton returned in his first year alone.

Again, I'm not trying to be a pedantic asshole. I just want to be clear how very unusual it is for a late-third pick to have rookie numbers like Marvin Harrison.

1 year, 5 months ago on T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen look like huge steals after one year

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I hate to keep harping on this, but Chase Stuart's draft chart is actually a chart of AV Above Replacement, where AV of 2 is "replacement level" for a player in any one year. The real question is not how much total value do you get from a drafted player, it's how much better is that player than somebody like David Thomas who is basically just a guy.


By that measure Allen and Hilton look even better. Stuart has 8.1 as the average AVAR for Allen's draft slot. If you multiply 2 AV by 5 years and add it, then compare Allen's 6 AV in his first year, it looks like Allen needs two more years to reach the average value of his slot. But in fact Allen had AVAR of 4 his first year and needs only one more year at that level to return that average value.


Likewise Hilton's slot has average AVAR of 5.8. If you bump that to 16 AV and compare Hilton's 8 AV in 2012 it looks like he needs one more year at that pace to reach average. But Hilton had 6 AVAR in 2012, meaning he's already returned the average value for his slot. Everything additional season with positive AVAR is pure win.


Just wanted to emphatically underline how awesome the 2012 draft really was. I feel confident it will go down as the best Colts draft of all time (and Chapman hasn't even played a down yet).

1 year, 5 months ago on T.Y. Hilton and Dwayne Allen look like huge steals after one year

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Brad has been going full retard for the last week or so. Manufactured outrage is manufactured.

1 year, 5 months ago on Pep Hamilton's Quotes Misreported, Cause Unnecessary Angst

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Huh, I literally just now reloaded and got the new Livefyre comment interface. Wish I'd had that 15 minutes ago.

1 year, 6 months ago on Recapping Ryan Grigson's Best Moves of 2012

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The Vontae Davis trade is interesting. At the time I was nervous about giving up both a 2nd and 6th round pick because even the 6th round pick has value. Since then I've learned three new things: First, the 2012 Colts were better than we thought and their second rounder was low second, not high second. Next, the sixth rounder depended on Vontae playing 65% of defensive snaps and his injury kept him just shy of that. Finally, I read Chase Stuart's article on creating a draft chart where he made the good point that only AV over 2 is meaningful when evaluating picks; call it AV Above Replacement.

 

So the Colts gave up the #54 pick which by Chase's measure is worth 9.2 AVAR over five years. The five year term is important because that's the maximum length of a rookie contract and cheap rookies are the real competitive advantage to be gained in the draft. Vontae has one year left on his rookie deal and in 2012 he put up an AVAR of 2. Strictly speaking that means in 2013 he needs an AVAR of 7 (AV of 9) for the Colts to realize the value of the #54 pick before Vontae gets his payday. That's unlikely since AV of defensive backs is heavily tied to their team's overall defensive performance and the Colts just aren't that strong yet on D. But if Vontae continues at the level he reached by the end of last season (and if he plays all 16 games) he could get pretty close. And then the Colts should have the inside track to keep him if they still want him.

 

Plus it's not hard to make the case that Vontae was the last piece of the puzzle that got the Colts to the playoffs in Luck's first year. That alone might be worth it for the confidence and energy it gives this young team even if you can't put a number on it.

 

Incidentally, Vontae in his three years in Miami put up AVAR of 11. Miami drafted him #25 which has expected AVAR of 14.1. So Miami got most of the expected AVAR for Vontae in just three years and then traded him for another expected 9.2 AVAR from an even cheaper rookie. From a strictly numerical perspective you could say Miami "won" that trade. However, as a few people pointed out, given the choice between keeping Vontae Davis and drafting Jamar Taylor, wouldn't you rather just keep Vontae? Yet another way that numbers don't tell the whole story.

1 year, 6 months ago on Recapping Ryan Grigson's Best Moves of 2012

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Also - can't believe I missed this at first - the Colts second round pick was #54 not #46 (worth 9.2 rather than 10.2).

1 year, 6 months ago on Recapping Ryan Grigson's Best Moves of 2012

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Quick nitpick: You mention the AV of the #46 pick is 10.2 through the first five seasons. I assume you're referencing Chase Stuart's chart (http://www.footballperspective.com/draft-value-chart/). Keep in mind that chart subtracts the first two points of AV each season (because AV of 2 for the year is roughly just-a-guy level of play). Vontae's adjusted AV thus far in his career is 13, not 21, but he's only been playing for four seasons, not five.

1 year, 6 months ago on Recapping Ryan Grigson's Best Moves of 2012

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 @NateWalton Grigson had guys he wanted and he paid what he thought he needed to pay to get them to sign now. He's a guy who had about $40 mil to spend and he acted like it but still kept enough future flexibility to deal with Luckageddon in three years. Mission accomplished.

1 year, 7 months ago on Colts Sign Free Agent DT Ricky Jean Francois

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 @GregC I'm sure Irsay preferred Luck all along. Everyone knew he preferred Luck. It was like the worst-kept secret in sports history. But he didn't prematurely close the door on RG3, nor did he cut the nuts off his new GM by taking the decision completely out of Grigson's hands. I thought these were good things.

 

Irsay saying he had "no idea" who they would draft was waaay stretching the truth but getting all jilted-lover about it is unfair. What would he accomplish by publicly confirming his choice in advance, other than satisfying our curiosity?

1 year, 8 months ago on Colts Authority

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 @GregC I'm not sure why you say Irsay was lying. It's not like he carved the decision in stone and sealed it in a bank vault for three months. If he could have changed his mind at any time then the decision wasn't made yet.

 

Even if Irsay always preferred to cut Peyton - even if he STRONGLY preferred it - so what? He took all the time allowed to him to gather every piece of relevant information before making it final. With millions of dollars riding on one decision the man is allowed to take his time, and he's not obligated to open his whole deliberation to the world.

1 year, 8 months ago on Colts Authority

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 @DougEngland Grigson had no leverage to renegotiate. Freeney had no incentive to accept less than a guaranteed $14 mil and Grigson didn't want to commit to more until they knew Freeney could play OLB. So the choice was either cut Freeney (and promote Jerry Hughes *shudder*) or hideously overpay Freeney for a year and see if he turns out to be the answer at OLB for four more years.

 

As it turns out, Freeney doesn't play OLB that well. So paying him OMG $14 MIL in a rebuilding year was still better than committing to more $$ on a multi-year deal. Maybe they should have just cut him but it's not immediately obvious that there was anyone available who could have done better.

1 year, 8 months ago on Pondering: Letting a Legend Go

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Not to mention it's not certain that cutting Freeney early actually gives him any advantage. There are plenty of high-profile D linemen set to hit the market and several cash-heavy teams counting their pennies in anticipation of a bidding war. Who will jump to offer Freeney big money without waiting to check out the action on Cliff Avril or Michael Bennett?

 

TL;DR - Florio gonna Florio. Nothing to see here, move along.

1 year, 8 months ago on Should the Colts Cut Dwight Freeney?

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