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And pennington shows why non-math people should not attempt to write about mathematical topics...


A vegas line absolutely, 100% IS a prediction, and is the best one known to mankind (particularly the money line, spread is a little more indirect).  Yes, he is correct that it moves to balance the wagers so that losers balance winners and the house gets the vig.  But in doing so, it induces the number that best reflects all available information (see Efficient Markets Theory from economics).  


He can be forgiven for saying that 'vegas' is not making the prediction, because that's true.  The opening line is a prediction of what the line will ultimately be, but if you use the term 'vegas' to mean 'all the money folks are wagering worldwide' and where the line ends up then yes, 'vegas' is making a prediction.


His breakdown of how results differed from spreads is laughable.  What is he comparing those results to?  F*** all!  So if it's not a predicition, what is the more accurate predictor?  Sagarin?  ELO Chess?  W-L?  Any statistical measure under the sun?  NO, the answer is NOTHING is a better predictor.  If there is a better one that actually beats vegas over a long period of time, please show it to me.  But please don't show it to anyone else, because you and I have some money to make.

2 years, 3 months ago on Vegas And The SEC: More Proof That The Line Isn’t A Prediction