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Note that the headline includes an oxymoron for a leaderless movement. It would be more accurate as "Occupy Wall Street Volunteer ..."

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Occupy Wall Street leader now works for Google, wants to crowdfund a private militia

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@mrjkd  There is a real mismatch between twitter/facebook social media and any horizontaal movement without official spokespeople. If the password is tightly held, its susceptible to being hijacked, as it was here, but if its too loosely held, one member can spoil things for everyone.

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Occupy Wall Street leader now works for Google, wants to crowdfund a private militia

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@scooterthomas27 Or look at Ohio. I am sure one could do a count of counties and get a similar result, but that would be entirely beside the point, since the Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati urban areas all require division into multiple districts. As gerrymandered, the City of Columbus is packed into one and the balance of the Columbus Urban Area is spread among neighboring rural areas to create one D district and 3 R districts where a fair districting would create at least 2 D or D-leaning districts. As gerrymanders, some of the most Democratic precincts of Cleveland are put into one majority-minority district that spread down to central Akron, and another as 1/3 of a district that stretches out to downtown Toledo. The balance of the Cleveland Urban Area is spread between one R-leaning district along the Lakeshore and R districts dominated by outer suburban and rural populations. And the Cincinnati Gerrymander takes West Cincinnati and offsets it with Butler Country, and East Cincinnati and offsets it with counties stretching east along the Ohio River.

11 months ago on Conversation @ http://www.newrepublic.com/article/114989/government-shutdown-2013-gerrymandering-isnt-blame

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 @WarHog38 Florida [hits palm on forehead], how could I forget Florida? Just because they play competitive football doesn't mean they AREN'T an elite research university. After Maryland leaves, it will be 5 AAU schools in the ACC, four in the SEC. If UNC switched to the SEC, the SEC would have *more* AAU schools than the ACC. If after the ACC being destabilized UVA and/or GTech moved to the Big Ten, the ACC would have no more, and possibly fewer, AAU schools than the SEC.

 

That could well be the "Toto, I don't think we are in Kansas anymore" moment for UNC. But, paradoxically, if both the Big Ten and the SEC are waiting for that to happen, it might never happen, because it seems unlikely that the ACC schools that the Big12 want agree to go to the Big12 unless the ACC is already destabilized, which means its either the SEC or Big Ten who have to move first.

 

Anyway, people who have oversimplified views of the world have an unfortunate advantage in web forums, because they can come up with an immediate response without any additional thought, while people who have more awareness of how complex, and sometimes contradictory, the real world is are still thinking things through.

 

 @Roggespierre I take the US News and World Report grad school rankings with a grain of salt, but if trying to get an overall view of a school's overall academic status, and not putting too much weight on any individual position, they are still workable. But not only do a lot of schools game the system for their undergraduate rankings, but even more, academic status is not ABOUT undergraduate education, so even if it were 100% accurate, it still would be beside the point.

1 year, 6 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @WarHog38  @Roggespierre Bear down on every advantage ~ Duke football may be lackluster, but its a top-10 national research university with millions of research grants and lots of top-25 grad school programs. Many people talking about academic status on conference discussion boards go to the US News and World Report site and quote the headline ranking ~ but that is the undergraduate ranking, because of the $$$ that USNWR makes every year selling those profiles to HS seniors. The real story in terms of academic status comes when you click through to the ranking of the grad school programs.

 

Its not JUST about money ~ its partly about academic snobbery. Notre Dame is not a big money research university, but it has top-25 law and business schools, so while academics in a top flight research university would not be popping the corks to get Notre Dame in a conference, they wouldn't look down their nose on Notre Dame either.

 

 

1 year, 6 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @ezgame Private school, NOT a national brand, not a traditional football contender (never mind "King"), not a research university and graduate school academic powerhouse, doesn't guarantee cable carriage across most or all of its state ... Wake Forest is hoping that the ACC hangs together and remains a Major conference, because its not getting an invite from any other Major conference. Its got great undergraduate academics, but that is not a major criteria for anybody.

1 year, 6 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @Roggespierre  Well, one fantastic AAU school, and also Missouri.

1 year, 6 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @WarHog38  @AllTideUp  The SEC may be full of fine educational institutions, but not with elite research universities that "rank with any conference".

 

But the SEC and ACC are not as different on that front as a lot of people remember. When I was living in Knoxville, there was only one AAU school in the SEC, but the last two adds have been AAU schools. With Maryland leaving, there's only going to be ffive AAU schools in the ACC. So if UNC moved to the SEC, the two conferences would have an equal number of AAU schools.

 

As a side note, I'd disagree with those who figure that the AAU status is WHY the SEC invited Texas A&M and Mizzou. Both add bigger "home" TV markets than the middle SEC schools. East Texas is the most "southern" part of Texas. And while the majority of Missouri is midwestern, there is a distinctly "southern" section in the southeast corner of the state that makes up about a quarter to a third of the state population.

1 year, 6 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @WarHog38  In the end though trash talk on an online discussion group is mostly hot air by a small number of loudmouths. I still do not think you can lump UVA and VTech in particular in the same boat. They've got different cultures. If VTech made the jump, they'd not be "anti-SEC" for twenty or thirty years. They could well turn into bigger SEC braggarts than A&M fans talking to UTX fans.

1 year, 6 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @WarHog38 If an fan of an SEC school goes onto boards of any other conference school, they are going to attract SEC bashing. Haters gonna hate, after all, that's just the way internet forums work, and as the top football conference, SEC backers are going to attract more than their fair share.

 

But its UVA that attracts more of the academic snootiness, and my impression about VTech fans is they are more football first. Northern VA may be the southern end of the Northeast Corridor, but that's still a big part of why many of them are VTech fans instead of Cavalier fans.

 

The main worry about NC State would be how much of a step up in class it would be ~ at least in Fall ~ for a program that only spends about $12m on football.

1 year, 6 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @WarHog38 My impression was that if you did a survey of t-shirt fans of VTech between the SEC and the Big Ten, the SEC would win by a fair margin, but unlike East Tennessee, I've never lived any substantial length of time in either Virginia or North Carolina, so that's just an outside impression.

1 year, 6 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @WarHog38 Or VTech and Clemson, if Florida, UT, and Georgia are leery of adding FSU.

1 year, 6 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @ezgame No, its not the Big Ten NETWORK that is in the "catbird seat", its the Big Ten CONFERENCE itself. The first tier contract with ABC/ESPN goes up for renegotiation soon, likely to be split into a broadcast network first tier and cable network second tier. Fox, CBS and ABC will be in the running for the first tier contract, and ESPN and the new "Fox Sports One" or whatever they are going to call it will be in the running for the second tier contract.

 

The Big Ten Network is not like that, it is a revenue sharing arrangement, so if it generates a larger surplus in a year, it yields more revenue to the Big Ten schools that year. And the contracts it has are with the carriers, which are each on their own terms, so those contracts are not going to be coming up for renewal all in the same year.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @DanHogan  @ezgame  But that's confusing two different types of influence. Conference realignment is so football focused because of the different economics of football and basketball ~ more of the media value in basketball is in championship tourneys, and only a relatively small fraction of media revenue from the the NCAA tournament gets paid out to participants. Indeed, since part gets paid out to schools based on number of athletic scholarships, and football is the most scholarship hungry sport, basketball media money subsidizes football directly.

 

But that does not mean that the influence at all schools is anywhere nearly so football focused. Basketball has a lot of clout with alumni givers at UNC, Kansas, Kentucky, Indiana and etc.

 

The main reason both the SEC and the Big Ten are lusting after UNC in their hearts is because of already important and relatively rapidly growing media markets. But because they are both wooing UNC, what is of interest to UNC becomes of interest to those conferences. The fact that the Big Ten is a more diverse all-sports conference than the SEC is an additional point of differentiation it will use in selling itself to UNC, alongside more prestigious academics, Major as opposed to Mid-Major level basketball strength of schedule and a higher conference payout.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @John at MrSEC  @ChaseTheTrainWarren This would seem to push schools to spend the extra money to step up to the FBS, rather than thin out the FBS ~ if an Appalachian State wants to keep getting payday games, and Major Conference schools stop scheduling revenue games with FCS schools, then Appalachian State has to get itself into the Sunbelt, right quick.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten Throws Down The Gauntlet: No More FCS Opponents

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 @adarpy  @AGator For the academic politicians that run the University of Florida, the revolt of t-shirt fans may or may not be such a big deal. However, for the long time members of the SEC, the revolt would extend to academic donors and to political supporters in state legislatures, and that part of the revolt threatens to have a much deeper bite.

 

A President of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Bama, etc. ... just is not going to flirt with that idea. They are going to let those sleeping dogs lie.

 

So while the answer to the hypothetical question, "if Florida was thinking about moving interested, would the Big Ten be interested" is a resounding "yes", under anything like current conditions it aint gonna happen, and doesn't need to be considered as a possible move.

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @GatorBuc2  @AGator If you start from Florida and list "wouldn't go anywhere without, in the end you'll be describing the core of the SEC. Its simpler to boil it down to a simple rule: schools don't leave the SEC, Big Ten or Pac-12. Don't waste any time on scenarios that assue that they do, since the conference commissioners certainly aren't investing a lot of time in any of those scenarios.

 

Or, as Frank the Tank might say, in conference realignment, sh!t always rolls downhill.

 

In the end, since multiple AAA minor leagues for football IS a sustainable outcome, the odds are that the SEC and Big Ten both win. The Pac-12 is hemmed in by the Rockies and the paucity of population in the Mountain time zone, otherwise they'd be better positioned to also win from conference realignment, as opposed to just treading water.

1 year, 7 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @BTN est 2007 I remember my first time going on forums while drunk, though back then it was Usenet rather than World Wide Web. I hope your hangover wasn't too bad.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Roggespierre  @Jimisawesome  @JRsec  @Seanbo If they were fully fungible, if the value of the commodity followed the commodity wherever it went, then Pitt would have the same value to the Big12, SEC and Big Ten, but clearly Pitt has much less value to the Big Ten than to the other two.

 

If they were fully fungible, it wouldn't much matter whether realignment was going to occur before, during or after contract negotiation, but since they aren't fully fungible, it does matter. The kind of issues you raise about using contract negotiations with ESPN to ensure that ESPN does not make a move to counter a desired add only works if the contract negotiation is taking place while the realignment negotiations are taking place.

 

Indeed, to look at an example where that exact kind of thing has happened, look at the NuBigEast and the departure of the C7. Because of the NO vote by 4 schools that are no longer in the NuBigEast or are leaving next year, the BigEast turned down $130m a year. So the Big East was stuck with negotiating realignment while also negotiating a TV contract, and in the process, Fox stepped in and made a side deal with the Catholic 7 instead, resulting in the hybrid Big East league collapsing into a total shambles.

 

But the Big Ten is going to have a set conference alignment already worked out when its contract comes up for renegotiation. Its either going to have UNC already, or be negotiating its TV deal on the basis of not having UNC.

 

In the scenarios where the Big Ten is negotiating a move by UNC in the next two years, ESPN is not going to want to screw the Big Ten over and make it likely that the Big Ten would be biased toward the Fox Sport Network rather than to their existing contract partner.

 

In the scenarios where the collapse of the ACC goes in slow motion, the UNC may move after the new deal is in place, but in that case, the additional value to the existing schools of the Big Ten taking its contract to the open market is likely greater than the additional value of possibly adding UNC sometime in the future and dividing the conference payout by 18 instead of 16. So any concern that there would be blowback for the chance of getting UNC would not prevent the Big Ten from taking it to the open market.

 

In the scenario where both negotiations are taking place simultaneously, what you raise could well interfere with contract negotiations. But the Big Ten has more sense than to open the door to that, and they can avoid it by not doing both at the same time.

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @The regular guy If UNC was available, it would be a bigger revenue win than either NC State or VTech, so if its about $ports money feeding the member universities, the SEC at least has to try to land the biggest pile of money available.

 

It would be a lot easier for the SEC if the SEC was a Major rather than Mid-Major conference for college basketball, since UNC BBall swings a lot of stick in the UNC community. Those who care about academics and those don't but who care about BBall could make allies in pushing for a move to the Big Ten.

1 year, 7 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @AGator Would the Big Ten be interested in Florida. Yes, obviously: they have the advantages of FSU, and as the premier public research university in the state of Florida,  they do not have the downside of being an academic "fixer-upper". Compared to UVA / UNC / GTech / Duke or UVA / UNC / GTech / FSU, UVA / UNC / GTech / Florida makes the best of both worlds.

 

As far as the chances of Florida leaving the SEC, serious people could differ in that assessment. Some would say the likelihood is nil, others that the likelihood is negligible. I tend toward the "nil" side. Or to paraphrase Dumb and Dumber, "The odds are less than one in a thousand", "so you are saying there IS a chance!"

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Which Conference Will Win The Realignment War? It Depends On Your Definition Of “Win”

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 @vol66  @Roggespierre We saw that when Maryland couldn't balance its Athletics Department budget, it cut sports. A big part of the appeal of increasing athletics revenue to academics as the big universities is the promise of an Athletics Department budget that is free-standing without requiring a student activities fee to balance its budget.

 

If the cost per scholarship goes up, without any resulting increase in revenues as a result, athletic departments will be under pressure to cut costs somewhere. Cutting back non-revenue sports is certainly going to be among the ways that budgets are balanced.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Roggespierre  @Jimisawesome  @JRsec Why not? Research status is about grad programs, not about undergraduate academics. And graduate schools need to find stipend funding to attract the higher quality graduate students. If for a particular school's circumstances that includes being a Graduate Teaching Associate teaching a night school class, well, money's money.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Seanbo  @Jimisawesome We don't know which one FSU would prefer ~ it would surely be a tussle either way. NC State, Virginia Tech and Clemson may have the SEC as a first choice, but they are not serious options for the Big Ten so its a moot point.

 

UNC considers itself a southern school, an elite research university and a basketball power. It built a conference for itself that is compatible with all three. Whether it would go slumming in terms of basketball and, especially in the wake of a serious academic scandal, in terms of academics is an open question. And moving from the ACC of 2012 to the Big Ten of 2012 is a much bigger jump than moving from the ACC of 2014, which includes BC, Syracuse and Pitt, to a Big Ten East division or a Big Ten Southern Region under rotating divisions that includes five former ACC schools.

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Roggespierre  @Jimisawesome  @JRsec  @Seanbo That seems to be treating fungibility like a light switch ~ its either fungible or its not ~ as opposed to the reality of it being a matter of degree ~ the close a conference is coming to the expiration of a long term network rights deal and the more revenue it gains on a revenue-share basis rather than on a rights-payment basis, the more fungible the value of the schools are.

 

In order to take the concern that you raise for ESPN off the table, the Big Ten would have to pre-commit to extending the contract with ESPN years before the current contract expires, and risk taking what their projections indicate to be millions or tens of millions of dollars per school off the table. That just isn't going to happen in order to result in some unknowable change in the likelihood of UNC picking the Big Ten.

 

Indeed, your scenario assumes that all parties assume that UNC is so closely balanced between going to the SEC and the Big Ten that secondary changes in per school conference payments are going to flip UNC's decision. I think its (1) fairly uncertain how much instability will be required to make UNC prefer moving to staying and (2) relatively UNlikely that if UNC flips to moving as its first priority, that its preference between the SEC and the Big Ten is all that finely balanced. There has been and will continue to be a political fight on which direction to go, and the odds are that one side or the other is going to gain the upper hand in that fight.

 

And in particular, if the UNC is tilted to going to the Big Ten but there is a sufficient upgrade from ESPN for the ACC rights to get UNC to stay instead ... that itself plus the best market price for Big Ten rights is a perfectly fine outcome for the Big Ten. If the financial incentives continue to be there for consolidation, and UNC is leaning toward the Big Ten in the event it moves, then the Big Ten will keep the lights on for UNC.

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @vol66 Part of the reason for that is that its a negligible impact on athletes in the Big Ten (or the SEC, if the SEC adopts it). You can still get injured playing in a cupcake game, after all. The difference in playing time for second string players between being substituted into the third quarter playing an FCS school or being substituted into the fourth quarter playing a "Group of Five" FBS school is not that big of an issue ~ indeed, its no difference at all if the school is trouncing the "Group of Five" FBS school or if the FCS school is giving unexpectedly stiff opposition.

 

On the scale of issues like different ways players are recruited, its down there below a 0.1 factor. On the scale of issues like concussions and brain injury, its basically zero on the scale.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Seanbo However, its less than 50/50 that Duke would agree to what many would perceive as slumming with SEC academic standard  and second-rank basketball competition. That makes UNC/Duke/VTech/FSU to the SEC less than 50/50. Indeed, its not clear whether Duke to the SEC or FSU to the Big Ten is less likely ~ the primary obstacle to the first is at Duke, the primary obstacle to the second is in the Big Ten.

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Roggespierre  @Jimisawesome  @JRsec  @Seanbo No, with three broadcast television networks and two two-channel national cable networks in the hunt for some slice of rights, the Big Ten is indeed in the catbird seat.

 

Fox, CBS, or ABC or Fox/CBS or Fox/ABC or CBS/ABC could all be in the hunt for the broadcast network rights, and ESPN and FoxSports will be in the hunt for the cable tier 2 rights, so the eventual rights partner will have to pay a fair share of the expected market value of the rights.

 

The issue about "if the Big Ten goes here, then that channel over there does this" is a wash ~ equally, if the Big Ten were to go with ABC/ESPN, then that would push Fox / Fox Sports Network to greater coverage of other schools. That doesn't force the Big Ten to go with ESPN for the tier 2 rights and therefore doesn't allow ESPN to get away with low-balling their bid.

 

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Seanbo "If the SEC took UNC, Duke, Virginia Tech and  Florida State"

If the SEC takes those four, no question that the Big Ten takes Virginia and Georgia Tech and stops at 16.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @MikeNiner5 " Any other AAU school the B1G wants, it will get, all others conferences will wait for leftovers" ... I'm assuming that means any AAU school in the ACC ~ it would be an idiotic statement if applied across the board.

 

Its a plausible claim but not a total certainty. After all, if the Big Ten could just snap its fingers and get any AAU member of the ACC it wants, UVA and UNC would already be announced in an expansion to 16.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @JayBoDingess I actually agree with you here. The only reason the SEC cares about number of AAU schools is because its something that stakeholders inside UNC would pay attention to. And the reason that the SEC wants UNC is not BECAUSE it is an AAU school, but because its the biggest available play for audience in one of the major growth areas on the eastern seaboard.

 

 So the SEC going after UNC is not chasing "AAU schools", the SEC is chasing "a school that is an AAU member".

 

Now, the Big Ten athletic directors would be happy to have the leeway that the SEC has in chasing schools that are 50th-150th in research, but because of the schools that the Big Ten athletic programs happen to be attached to, they don't.

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @mll If the SEC could just "take" UVA and UNC, they would have done so already. Neither school seems particularly eager to slum it academically in the SEC, and UNC doesn't seem particularly eager to leave top-drawer BBall for second rate BBall.

 

That's where the whole "UNC Plus Duke" notion comes from ~ that adding both would boost both the academic status and the BBall strength of schedule to the point where it wouldn't be such a dramatic drop down in both as it would be for today's SEC.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @LaSportsDude Wake Forest doesn't add much over NC State alone. At FSU, VTech, NC State and looking around for an 18th, that's where I would buy the notion of the SEC inviting Pitt before it gets pulled into the Big12 GOR. Pitt is the one AAU school in the ACC that wouldn't add appreciably to gross Big Ten revenue ~ Duke would add to gross revenue, just not be as much as its share of the conference payout.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @JRsec  @Roggespierre I'd reckon the Big Ten expects most schools will continue to schedule "Group of Five" schools on a regular basis in September under the current system ... the Buckeyes, That School Up North, the Huskers and Penn State when they've recovered might go all-Big 5, but they won't insist that the Hawkeyes or Boilermakers or Hoosiers follow suit.

 

The evolution if the big split occurs would be a Kick Off Classic weekend of all NCAA FBS schools hosted by Top Tier conference schools, in a Top Tier 13 game regular season, to allow everyone to play their 12 Top Tier OOC and conference games Home and Home and still have 7 home games (or equivalent) in their ticket book. If the NCAA FBS division schools have a 12 game season, they finish a week earlier, allowing for a CCG and an eight team championship, with the first round during the Top Tier CCG week and the semi-final round as December bowl games. Then the NCAA FBS championship game can fall in the slot in the schedule between the end of the Access Bowls and the Top Tier NCG.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Seanbo Getting UNC to move without a safe landing for NC State is a fine trick, given that the two universities have the same board. But if the SEC took those four, you could pretty much guarantee that the Big Ten would take UVA and GTech and then stop at 16 for a while. NC State and Clemson would have to end up at the Big12, since unless NC State ends up somewhere UNC is not going anywhere, and it would not be surprising if the Big12 took Pitt and somebody else to make 14, and the seven teams of the "Big14 East" made up of TCU and six teams actually east of the Mississippi.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @I4Bama There's also Spring Football. When I was watching "The Blind Side", when Big Mike, the hero of the movie is told he'd made the grades to play Spring Football I was like, "huh?" HS Football may be far and away the king of HS sports in NE Ohio, but there just isn't a long enough time between when you can be sure the snow is melted and the end of the school year to fit in a second football season.

1 year, 7 months ago on Why Is The SEC Thriving In Football, Struggling In Basketball? Money

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 @Roggespierre  @mowens75 That's the third thing about moving a step at a time. If the Big Ten invites UVA and GTech, it might prompt the SEC to give up on the SEC Network play for UNC and Duke and go with VTech and either NC State or FSU. That might destabilize the conference enough for a pair of schools worth it to the Big 12 to bit the bullet and make the move. As the balance of gravity shits to the Old Big East, it sinks in with UNC that this isn't the ACC that they were remembering.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @local37220 When the Big Ten had to decide between adding Mizzou and adding nobody, they chose to add nobody.

 

There is no indication that there's been a big change there, and no reason to think that Mizzou would leave the SEC.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Roggespierre  @vp81955  @local37220 That's thinking like a cable TV / Digital Streaming channel.

 

One key word here is "churn rate". That is how much of your current subscriber base you need to replace annually just to stay even. A sports network with strong Fall and Winter programming but nothing to watch in the Spring runs the risk of people subscribing a half year and then dropping. The narrower the window when people are not watching, the more likely they just let the subscription tick over.

 

That's why the SEC would be interested in UNC+Duke in the first place: convert the SEC from the Mid-Major conference that it has become back into a Major basketball conference, and the SEC Network will be looking at a lower churn rate. And UNC+Duke would restore the SEC from second tier back to first tier status in basketball.

 

If 10%-20% of your winter audience can be sold on watching Lacrosse, that'll cut your churn rate by an appreciable slice. They don't even need to be serious Lacrosse fans ~ people will rationalize staying subscribed to something that they've watched in the past month, even if they never would have subscribed in the first place in order to watch that content.

 

Another key word here is "demographics". Golf does not get on broadcast TV because of the numbers of people willing to watch grass grow, but because of the average income of those people. You can sell luxury car commercials during Lacrosse games just like you can sell them during golf tournaments.

 

A third key word is "carriage". Where Lacrosse has the most pull is exactly where the Big Ten has to work on gaining carriage ~ the eastern seaboard, from North Carolina through to New England.

 

Now, Lacrosse is still a niche sport, but its a much bigger niche on the East Coast than it is in most of the rest of the country.

 

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @mowens75  @FCDore The Big Ten's previous two adds were Kings, even if one is a hobbled King until the sanctions expire. We will find out if Delany can get FSU in or not ~ one advantage of a slower expansion process for the Big Ten is it gives FSU some time to try to get some forward momentum for the ranking of their Law School, which is the strategic piece in building a quality cluster that might get them a gentleman's C on the academic front.

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @HawkRaz 18 is no harder to schedule than 20. Have 4 or 5 schools in "East" and "West", 5 or 4 schools in "Central" and (SEC) "South" or (Big Ten) "North", and alternate the two central groups with the two anchor groups to form 9 team championship divisions. Play through the "opposite" division in the ninth game over four or five years,

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @iDBrown What's the problem? Schedule two mid-major revenue games, one "Name" OOC Home and Home series, play the OOC Home and Home series Home when your division has 4 Home and Away when your division has 5 home, and you have 7 home games, every season.

 

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Roggespierre  @John at MrSEC  @AllTideUp That fits with the step at a time approach.

 

If UVA, UNC, Duke and GTech all announced on August 14 that they were joining the Big Ten on July 1, 2014, all of a sudden Big Ten Lacrosse would no longer suck: it would be an eight school conference with four old-boy network insiders.

 

A two step process with UVA and GTech entering in 2015, and having a Lacrosse conference up and running and including the bluest of blue bloods would basically eliminate pushback from that side of the non-revenue sports. And as you said, the clout of that pushback is not about the revenues of the Lacrosse games, its about the incomes of the Lacrosse alums and parents.

 

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten To Add More Conference Games; Is This Another Lure For UVA, GT, UNC And Duke?

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 @Paris10 If Kentucky needs to schedule three cupcakes to go bowling, why exactly do they deserve to represent the SEC in a bowl game, again?

1 year, 7 months ago on Big Ten Considering A 9- Or 10-Game Conference Schedule

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Sagarin's rankings are tilted to the middle of a conference ~ for example, the weights in a 9 school conference are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1.

The current rankings are:

85.16 Big Ten

83.42 Big East (Vale)

82.36 Big 12

81.69 ACC

80.72 Pac-12

80.67 Mountain West

79.89 SEC

78.85 A-10

76.91 Missouri Valley

75.59 WCC

 

You could look at that as the MWC nestled up among the Majors ... or you could look at that as the SEC nestled down there among the Mid-Majors.

1 year, 7 months ago on Why Is The SEC Thriving In Football, Struggling In Basketball? Money

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 @AllTideUp  @JRsec  @Roggespierre  @DanHogan You can still do a two division round robin schedule and have number one in each division host number two in the other. The semi-finals gets rid of the situation of the CCG loser being knocked out of the National Playoff by a division runner-up ~ under that lineup, the National Playoff semi-finals would be the SEC champion hosting a #1 or #2 semi-final bowl, and in most years the CCG loser being hosted as the #3 or #4 team.

1 year, 7 months ago on How An SEC-Big XII Scheduling Alliance Could Doom The ACC

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 @JRsec  @AllTideUp  @Roggespierre  @DanHogan Under current rules you can have two divisions but each division has to play a full round robin. So 20 would be two groups of 10 under those rules, which is why people talk about a group system ~ Year 1: West+Central, East+South, Year2: West+South, East+Central, Year3: West+East, South+Central.

 

If you can have a two round playoff, you can have three eight team divisions and a wild card or four six team divisions and a semi-final, final conference championship playoff, and 24 would fit.

 

So definitely have to get the NCAA rules changed before you do that.

 

Obviously the threat of the SEC doing that is one reason why some other Major conferences might be against that particular rule change.

1 year, 7 months ago on How An SEC-Big XII Scheduling Alliance Could Doom The ACC

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 @AllTideUp  @JRsec Don't have too much to complain about, and unable to complain too much are not the same at all. I have full confidence in the ability of LSU fans to find lots to complain about, come hell or high water.

1 year, 7 months ago on How An SEC-Big XII Scheduling Alliance Could Doom The ACC

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 @AllTideUp  @JRsec East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and FSU would be even more fun.

 

That South is OK, but if a locked cross division game with Florida was possible for the Vols, it would be even better. Would it make sense to lock West/Central and South/East pairwise, as in Bama-Georgia, Auburn-South Carolina, Kentucky-UNC, Vandy-Duke?

 

1 year, 7 months ago on How An SEC-Big XII Scheduling Alliance Could Doom The ACC

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 @JRsec  @Roggespierre  @AllTideUp Now, there's times I could go with a description of Notre Dame as a Big Dick.

 

Given their "national profile", that two of the schools they want to play are in the Pac-12 and the Pac-12 is geographically constrained, there's a certain sense to Notre Dame to the Pac-12, but the Pac-12 would be unlikely to take a religious school.

1 year, 7 months ago on How An SEC-Big XII Scheduling Alliance Could Doom The ACC

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