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@Johnny_Socko @Nate Dunlevy Yes, it is bizarre.
Let's unpack the signings, though:
Jackson: Worst player on the defense. A disaster in every sense. Lots of ways to measure it, but PFF will work in a pinch. He's been bad, bad bad.
Landry: Also very bad, and it wasn't until he was suspended that the D really started to come together.
Redding: What a fabulous player! Irony is, his pass rush grade is off the charts, but his run D has been mediocre. Go figure. I have no explanation.
Jones: Been hurt, no impact.
Ricky Jean: Playing well against the run, a couple of scheme sacks.
So, of those signings, only Redding and Francois are really having an impact. Two haven't barely played (and played poorly when they did), and the other is an abject black-hole disaster.
So why are they better?
1. Scheme-Manusky is dialing up some wicked good blitzes.
2. Werner coming of age.
3. Davis is playing out of his mind. Way way way beyond where he has ever been before.
I'll admit, none of that is a satisfactory answer. I don't think it's a mirage though. I just can't fully explain it.
1 day, 22 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-bengals-0.html
@Johnny_Socko If the team was built to run the ball and stop the run, it wasn't built very well. It does neither. 30th ranked run D in DVOA. 25th ranked run O by DVOA.
I think the decision to draft Moncrief and switch to Harrison at center are evidence the team moved in a pass-first direction. It started late last season over the final two games, and after the Philly loss it took hold. Pagano came out and said they ran the ball too much.
I can't explain the defense at all. It's succeeding despite bad play from Walden and Jackson. I have no idea how they are generating this pass rush, except that it's working.
Schematically, they are selling out on the blitz, ignoring the run and trying to kill the QB.
I don't see that as roster construction, but rather as a philosophical shift.
They've abandoned their plan, and finally have a Super Bowl-caliber team for their trouble.
2 days, 3 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-bengals-0.html
@erhall01 @Longin4Reagan Yeah, no.
3 days, 7 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-bengals-0.html
@matt_has tweaked hammy.
4 days, 4 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-bengals-0.html
@Longin4Reagan No. The freeze frames are clear. The RB has to get that. Very very much not on Luck.
4 days, 6 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-bengals-0.html
@Fot Bollar Sorry, but the jury is in. Richardson runs behind the same blockers as Bradshaw and the same blockers as every other RB last year.
He is the problem, not the line. He's easily the least talented, worst running back I've seen in almost 30 years of football.
1 week, 6 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-texans.html
@matt_has it's a focus for Houston. They bat balls. It's their thing.
2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-texans.html
@gaiter27 Whalen has been very good all year until yesterday. I think they are fine with him there. It was a bad day made to look worse thanks to a terrible call.
2 weeks, 4 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-20-ravens-13.html
@Brad Cronin I was proud of that one.
@hankster This offense is completely legit.
The defense is not. That's the 'Titans discount'.
3 weeks, 4 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-44-titans-17.html
@dmstorm22 I don't know. It annoyed me. It was probably perfectly reasonable, but he said it with undue enthusiasm. Probably not my clearest sentence.
1 month ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-44-jaguars-17.html
@bjg Funny thing is how many people told me I was being "negative" for freaking out about it back then.
1 month, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-eagles-30-colts-27.html
@smonroe If they aren't 'chalk up wins', then it will be a long season. I expect Indy to be in first place in four weeks.
@rogcohen It is amazing. It only hasn't been copied because it is so new. It will be everywhere soon.
@eoinholligan They hung tough. That's more than I expected. Foles is worse, but the Eagles are still a solid team.
@rogcohen I actually forgot about his other fumble. Geeze, he sucks.
@JW No. Not anymore. Do a podcast. http://www.profootballcentral.com/category/afc-south/indianapolis-colts/
@flindt I'm not sure there is. Jackson especially has had bad coverage stats before. He's just not good at it.
1 month, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/bloggers-of-the-round-table-week-1-in-review.html
@bjg We can debate that. They didn't cause the drops, and certainly not Manning's two errant throws.
They didn't get gashed with the run, but gave up 31. It's not reason for optimism.
1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/
@smonroe @mattshedd What turned Peyton was Dungy. Luck needs his Dungy.
@mattshedd Luck did that a lot more last year. He definitely has Peyton's, "Too hell with it! I'm winning this game as a team!" mode from 99-2002.
@smonroe See, I don't agree. There's a difference between process and outcomes. The outcome was fine, and yes, I'll take 7 points a half every time. However, if they utilize the same process, they are very unlikely to obtain that same outcome.
That's why I say they played poorly.
@buymymonkey It was instructive and worth a look.
@paulcareyjr I would like to see a still of the ball on his palms. It was off his finger tips.
@TheFunkyMonkey I don't think you are wrong there, but it's so hard to be positive about anything about the roster except Luck, that the passing game ends up getting the attention. The rush offense had a better DVOA, but again, that was mostly do to Luck's scrambles.
It's a team with a bad line, a terrible defense that got torched in the playoffs, a suspect run game...if Luck and Hilton get the bulk of the attention, it's hard to quibble.
So, you're right, it's a lot about passing offense. But if other areas had gotten more attention, people would have complained it was too negative.
3 months ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/
@ScottComstock @Nate Dunlevy No worries. Yes, I have copies of Invincible, Indiana for sale. Blue Blood is temporarily out of print, but I will be revising it in the future for another release.
@ScottComstock Thanks Scott. Yes, I had a great time with my three pieces.
@Payton @Colt_Following We've looked into printing. It's really cost prohibitive.
@mattshedd You can't evaluate a pick for a couple of years, but these pieces help us create realistic criteria by which we can measure a pick. Ricardo Matthews was an awesome pick, for example. I'm not sure people view it that way.
5 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/what-to-expect-2014-jonathan-newsome-andrew-jackson-ulrick-john.html
@paulcareyjr Coaching and system is a big part of it.
@Professor Blue @Nate Dunlevy @rogcohen @mattshedd I know. I'm just not sure I actually believe him.
5 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/
@rogcohen @Nate Dunlevy@mattshedd12 games started really is the fall line. 32 of 48 started at least 8. 25 started at least 12. Considering where they brought him into, I don't think 12 is too high.
At any rate if they finish the year with him starting, everyone will be fine with it.
Holmes is dual listed on the roster G and C.
@TheGreatMisdirect Yes. He is.
@19>18 It's an eyeball test. 28 of 47 started in 10 games. 25 started in 12. Most of the guys who started from day one played in at least 12 games. 10 or 12, it comes down to injuries.
I wouldn't really quibble either way.
@mattshedd Not really. PFF grades are dicey for me. They are super contextual and I don't trust them enough for something like this.
I like their stats better than their grades.
Nah. I'm just of a certain age. People in their 30s love that movie.
9 months, 2 weeks ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Patriots
There are stylistic elements in common, but I think he has the ability to dissect a defense like Manning. Also he does the comeback/close victory thing that Manning excels at but Rodgers has always struggle to do.
9 months, 3 weeks ago on Growing Up Before My Eyes
Sorry for the crappy formatting on that last comment. The numbers didn't come over well.
9 months, 3 weeks ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited
Mathis really didn't play much his rookie year with the base defense. He mostly worked special teams and mop up duty. Werner got way more playing time. Mathis was a special teams star and a spot player. The roles really were different and he still made a bigger impact.
Chapman basically hit last year's projection
I actually think the Jags have more overall talent. Houston's primary talent base is quite old. I also like the Jags front office better than Houston's.
10 months ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Jaguars
Let me address the prediction issue, as I have both years.
The first point in today’s Eyes really covers it. I also
gave a speech to a local group about it last year. Every year, I go over my
predictions to see what I got wrong. The 2011 and 2012 Colts both slightly
exceeded my stat projection for them. Profile-wise, I wasn’t far off. However,
both teams look to greatly exceed their win totals.
This year, I said they were a 9 to 10 win team. They might
win 11. However, their stat profile says they are basically an 8-9 win team. I
feel good about that projection. There is a lot of randomness in NFL game
What is happening may be the second coming of Peyton. Some
guys simply break the Pythagorean rule. They are super rare. There’s only one I
know of: Peyton F. Manning.
It could be that Andrew Luck is that guy. Next year, I’ll
give Indy an extra win or two in recognition of that.
They are basically exactly what I said they’d be: an
improved but flawed team. In the end, they’ll beat my win projection by a game
or two, but in fairness I didn’t see Houston’s collapse coming. That’s the
As for Richardson setting them back three years, here’s what
I mean: it takes two to three years for a WR to really be a force. They need
that WR now. They can’t get him until 2015 most likely. So instead of trading
for Gordon and having a guy now, their big WR target is still several years
from becoming a major factor.
That’s what I was getting at.
Anyway, thanks for your kind words. I do appreciate them. I
hope this clarifies where I’m coming from. Some of the confusion comes from the
fact that I write far far less about the Colts, so my thoughts aren’t always
condensed in one place. It makes it harder to follow my logic.
That’s my fault, not yours.
Thanks for the apology. It's accepted. I do appreciate it.
10 months ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs
I gave you my number in
the other thread. Let's sit down and talk this out. You like what Grigson is
doing? Fine. YOu have to understand that I hate it. Despise it. I think
the results have been great because of Luck.
I lived through a Jim Mora regime once, so I
know what it looks like when a great QB covers up for a crappy coach. I was
super pro-Grigson last year, but his work this year has been rough. The
Richardson trade alone set this franchise back three years. Not to mention
opening the season with DHB at WR. That’s just awful.
The good things to say
about the Colts are pretty limited to Luck, Brown and Mathis at this point. I
talk about them a lot. The Colts stat profile shows a team that does
nothing very well. It’s one of the weirder teams ever.
I’ve gone on record
several times that I thought they’d beat KC in KC and could make a playoff run.
Find someone else who was talking like that last week.
All I can say is that I’m
giving you my honest take on the team. I feel negative about it. I don’t like
watching them as they are currently constructed. I’m not ripping them to rip
them. Most weeks are painful to watch. That’s how I honestly feel.
1.I said I wouldn’t spend more money on this team
this year. That meant to travel to Cincy. I just laid out $1,000 to buy playoff
tickets, so clearly you mistook my meaning.
2.You can’t honestly think Grigson has had a good
year right? Walden, DHB, Toler,
Richardson, the entire draft…He has had a disastrous year. One of the worst of
any GM in football. It’s a shame because if he wasn’t terrible at his job, this
team would be a Super Bowl team right now. It doesn’t take much in the AFC, but
he’s ruined a title run with awful signings and a D- draft.
3.Input on to how I’d do things differently? Dude,
I’ve been giving that for months. Wake up. I write in a lot of different
places. I said repeatedly I would have taken a wideout in the first round, I
would have made a run a Welker, I wouldn’t have wasted cash on Walden. Please.
1. You mistakenly assume the prediction is the important part of a preview piece.
Yes, calling one game shows expertise. That's what expertise is...making a call on a single game because you are a homer.