Indianapolis and Buenos Aires,
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Nah. I'm just of a certain age. People in their 30s love that movie.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Patriots
There are stylistic elements in common, but I think he has the ability to dissect a defense like Manning. Also he does the comeback/close victory thing that Manning excels at but Rodgers has always struggle to do.
2 months ago on Growing Up Before My Eyes
Sorry for the crappy formatting on that last comment. The numbers didn't come over well.
2 months ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited
@rogcohen@apom95@Nate Dunlevy @rogcohen@apom95@Nate Dunlevy I wanted to do a bit more research before answering you, because your opinion surprised me. Obviously, sacks and tackles are a pretty shallow way to look at the issue. There's no one great way to measure defensive players. The cheat is to try and use PFF grades, but I have problems with those too. I'll try and go into more depth with a variety of metrics. Werner was pretty clearly worse than everyone on your list but Datone Jones. He crushed him.Here's how they did using PFF stats (which vary from PFR occasionally): Grade, snaps, sacks, pressures, tacklesJordan: 0.1, 339, 2, 18, 16Mingo: -9.8, 668, 5, 18, 27JJones: -3.9, 646, 1, 25, 28Werner, -6.7, 312, 3, 10, 11Werner played the fewest snaps, but was clearly inferior to Jordan, both by grade and pressures. You could prorate him near Mingo, but his pressures and tackles would still be short of J Jones. Also, not all of his snap differential was due to injury. Some of it was that he simply didn't get on the field enough. He did get 2.5 sacks (or 3 in PFF), but only 10 pressures. That really does jive with what I saw on tape, which was a sub-standard pass rusher. This is confirmed by the fact that he had the worst pass rushing grade of anyone on the list. His -8.0 is really putrid.Again, I'm not trying use PFF grades as a trump, so throw them out if you want. They have issues, I'll grant you.On the balance, however, I don't know that the stats (which are admittedly shallow) or the tape or the scouting grades are particularly encouraging about Werner.I do think that because of the fact that we KNEW he'd be a non-factor for a few years, it's too early to give up hope. He may well pan out.I do not think there is any reason to take comfort from his play. I would rate him as slightly below expectations. Similar season expectation-wise to Fleener last year. Not too bad. Injury hurt him, long-term value still in question.If he takes a nice jump forward the pick can still pan out. Right now, I'd put him ahead of D Jones and behind every other player like him taken in the first.
Mathis really didn't play much his rookie year with the base defense. He mostly worked special teams and mop up duty. Werner got way more playing time. Mathis was a special teams star and a spot player. The roles really were different and he still made a bigger impact.
Chapman basically hit last year's projection
@rogcohen @rogcohen If you go back to the comps, it's actually fairly reasonable. Freeney was a pure edge rusher, which is not at all what Werner is projected as. Freeney was also picking up double-digit sacks from his rookie year on, and that is not an expectation anyone had for Werner.Remember he's essentially playing the same position as Walden, and has responsibilities in this defense against the run as well.He graded out poorly on tape and the projection was really modest. He was considered to be a major project player and it looks like the project has a long way to go.
I actually think the Jags have more overall talent. Houston's primary talent base is quite old. I also like the Jags front office better than Houston's.
2 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Jaguars
Let me address the prediction issue, as I have both years.
The first point in today’s Eyes really covers it. I also
gave a speech to a local group about it last year. Every year, I go over my
predictions to see what I got wrong. The 2011 and 2012 Colts both slightly
exceeded my stat projection for them. Profile-wise, I wasn’t far off. However,
both teams look to greatly exceed their win totals.
This year, I said they were a 9 to 10 win team. They might
win 11. However, their stat profile says they are basically an 8-9 win team. I
feel good about that projection. There is a lot of randomness in NFL game
What is happening may be the second coming of Peyton. Some
guys simply break the Pythagorean rule. They are super rare. There’s only one I
know of: Peyton F. Manning.
It could be that Andrew Luck is that guy. Next year, I’ll
give Indy an extra win or two in recognition of that.
They are basically exactly what I said they’d be: an
improved but flawed team. In the end, they’ll beat my win projection by a game
or two, but in fairness I didn’t see Houston’s collapse coming. That’s the
As for Richardson setting them back three years, here’s what
I mean: it takes two to three years for a WR to really be a force. They need
that WR now. They can’t get him until 2015 most likely. So instead of trading
for Gordon and having a guy now, their big WR target is still several years
from becoming a major factor.
That’s what I was getting at.
Anyway, thanks for your kind words. I do appreciate them. I
hope this clarifies where I’m coming from. Some of the confusion comes from the
fact that I write far far less about the Colts, so my thoughts aren’t always
condensed in one place. It makes it harder to follow my logic.
That’s my fault, not yours.
Thanks for the apology. It's accepted. I do appreciate it.
2 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs
I gave you my number in
the other thread. Let's sit down and talk this out. You like what Grigson is
doing? Fine. YOu have to understand that I hate it. Despise it. I think
the results have been great because of Luck.
I lived through a Jim Mora regime once, so I
know what it looks like when a great QB covers up for a crappy coach. I was
super pro-Grigson last year, but his work this year has been rough. The
Richardson trade alone set this franchise back three years. Not to mention
opening the season with DHB at WR. That’s just awful.
The good things to say
about the Colts are pretty limited to Luck, Brown and Mathis at this point. I
talk about them a lot. The Colts stat profile shows a team that does
nothing very well. It’s one of the weirder teams ever.
I’ve gone on record
several times that I thought they’d beat KC in KC and could make a playoff run.
Find someone else who was talking like that last week.
All I can say is that I’m
giving you my honest take on the team. I feel negative about it. I don’t like
watching them as they are currently constructed. I’m not ripping them to rip
them. Most weeks are painful to watch. That’s how I honestly feel.
@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy @therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy I'd love to have a beer or coffe with you. You are clearly angry and I don't get why.Here's my number: 317-796-8948.Sit down with me face to face and call me a liar and say these things or shut the hell up and go away.Man up. You want to rip my humanity and integrity, fine. Do it to my face. You know my name. Text me. We'll meet and you can say this to my face.
@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy What Eyes in the Backfield are you talking about with Brown and Ballard? I'm missing some context here.Does all this boil down to the fact that yo are angry because you've been wrong about Colts running backs? It seems like you are one of the idiots who crapped on DB and like the Richardson deal. Is that your problem? You don't know enough about football to know that was a bad deal from the start, and now you are ashamed because you were wrong?You do need therapy. Stats are snap shots. There are times where YPC matters and times when it doesn't. The are blunt instruments used for different purposes at different times. I do use them in different ways, and I'd love to have this discussion with you face to face because you are clearly angry about something.My guess is that you were one of the idiots who LOOOOVED the new philosophy and are mad that it's not really panning out with good football. If so, fine. I hate it. It ruining the Colts. It's costing them a shot at rings and wasting the early years of Lucks career.The angle of my seats is amazing by the way. What helps is that I also watch the game film each week too. Any clown can see that Richardson is a disaster. The coaches know it. I've just been point out what the media was too lazy/scared to say.As for Delone Carter, I have no idea what your point is. He was awful and I said so constantly.Davis and PFF is hard. I've talked a lot about him. PFF stats in general I've made a point of saying that I don't fully embrace. I'll happily cop to having reservations about them. Especially the grading and some of the weird RB stats. Why do you call me a liar about watching film? How dare you? Where do you get off?
1.I said I wouldn’t spend more money on this team
this year. That meant to travel to Cincy. I just laid out $1,000 to buy playoff
tickets, so clearly you mistook my meaning.
2.You can’t honestly think Grigson has had a good
year right? Walden, DHB, Toler,
Richardson, the entire draft…He has had a disastrous year. One of the worst of
any GM in football. It’s a shame because if he wasn’t terrible at his job, this
team would be a Super Bowl team right now. It doesn’t take much in the AFC, but
he’s ruined a title run with awful signings and a D- draft.
3.Input on to how I’d do things differently? Dude,
I’ve been giving that for months. Wake up. I write in a lot of different
places. I said repeatedly I would have taken a wideout in the first round, I
would have made a run a Welker, I wouldn’t have wasted cash on Walden. Please.
1. You mistakenly assume the prediction is the important part of a preview piece.
Yes, calling one game shows expertise. That's what expertise is...making a call on a single game because you are a homer.
1.How have the Colts “consistently exceeded
expectations”? They have won 10 (maybe 11 games) instead of the 9 to 10 I
thought they’d win. They have some great wins and some terrible losses.
Statistically, they are exactly the profile of a 9 win team. They are basically
exactly who I thought they’d be.
2.“You sir, are the worst kind of fan imaginable,
one who will stop spending money on the team because they don't build in the
way you think is ideal.”
What are you even talking about? Are you just making things up now?
As for passive aggressive
attacks on Grigson, they aren’t passive at all. I think he’s had a terrible
year. Let’s call that aggressive aggressive, shall we? He made some huge,
obvious mistakes that cost this team a chance at a title now. It’s been bad
year for him. I’ll cop to that.
@therapyneeded@hanksterThis was the weirdest comment of all time. I'm glad this game was so easy to call. I must have been the only one earth that picked KC to win at home. This was a very good game preview and if you read it carefully you'll see the only thing it missed on was the final score. I stand by it.
Listen, clown boy, I
wrote a huge piece last week about how I expected Indy to beat KC in Indy. I
think yesterday's game was a mild upset.
For the record, I picked
Indy’s games right ten times and this is the first one I’ve missed since the
Rams game. Make a point next time.
@snakerjaker@Nate DunlevyWhen I hold it in the light, it looks dark dark blue. I agree, it looks too grey to me too, but I do think it is blue.
2 months, 1 week ago on Support Colts Authority With Your Own Spider Three Y Banana Shirt
@snakerjakerIt does look grey, but I think it's actually Navy. It seems to change color depending on the light.