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@Johnny_Socko @Nate Dunlevy Yes, it is bizarre. 


Let's unpack the signings, though:


Jackson: Worst player on the defense. A disaster in every sense. Lots of ways to measure it, but PFF will work in a pinch. He's been bad, bad bad.


Landry: Also very bad, and it wasn't until he was suspended that the D really started to come together.


Redding: What a fabulous player! Irony is, his pass rush grade is off the charts, but his run D has been mediocre. Go figure. I have no explanation.


Jones: Been hurt, no impact.


Ricky Jean: Playing well against the run, a couple of scheme sacks.


So, of those signings, only Redding and Francois are really having an impact. Two haven't barely played (and played poorly when they did), and the other is an abject black-hole disaster.


So why are they better?


1. Scheme-Manusky is dialing up some wicked good blitzes.

2. Werner coming of age.

3. Davis is playing out of his mind. Way way way beyond where he has ever been before. 



I'll admit, none of that is a satisfactory answer. I don't think it's a mirage though. I just can't fully explain it.


1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-bengals-0.html

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@Johnny_Socko If the team was built to run the ball and stop the run, it wasn't built very well. It does neither. 30th ranked run D in DVOA. 25th ranked run O by DVOA. 


I think the decision to draft Moncrief and switch to Harrison at center are evidence the team moved in a pass-first direction. It started late last season over the final two games, and after the Philly loss it took hold. Pagano came out and said they ran the ball too much.


I can't explain the defense at all. It's succeeding despite bad play from Walden and Jackson. I have no idea how they are generating this pass rush, except that it's working.


Schematically, they are selling out on the blitz, ignoring the run and trying to kill the QB. 


I don't see that as roster construction, but rather as a philosophical shift.


They've abandoned their plan, and finally have a Super Bowl-caliber team for their trouble.

1 week, 1 day ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-bengals-0.html

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@Longin4Reagan No. The freeze frames are clear. The RB has to get that. Very very much not on Luck. 

1 week, 3 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-bengals-0.html

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@Fot Bollar Sorry, but the jury is in. Richardson runs behind the same blockers as Bradshaw and the same blockers as every other RB last year.


He is the problem, not the line. He's easily the least talented, worst running back I've seen in almost 30 years of football.

2 weeks, 5 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-texans.html

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@matt_has it's a focus for Houston. They bat balls. It's their thing.

2 weeks, 5 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-texans.html

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@gaiter27 Whalen has been very good all year until yesterday. I think they are fine with him there. It was a bad day made to look worse thanks to a terrible call.

3 weeks, 3 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-20-ravens-13.html

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@hankster This offense is completely legit. 


The defense is not.  That's the 'Titans discount'.

1 month ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-44-titans-17.html

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@dmstorm22 I don't know. It annoyed me. It was probably perfectly reasonable, but he said it with undue enthusiasm. Probably not my clearest sentence.  

1 month, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-44-jaguars-17.html

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@bjg Funny thing is how many people told me I was being "negative" for freaking out about it back then. 

1 month, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-eagles-30-colts-27.html

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@smonroe If they aren't 'chalk up wins', then it will be a long season. I expect Indy to be in first place in four weeks.

1 month, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-eagles-30-colts-27.html

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@rogcohen It is amazing. It only hasn't been copied because it is so new. It will be everywhere soon.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-eagles-30-colts-27.html

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@eoinholligan They hung tough. That's more than I expected. Foles is worse, but the Eagles are still a solid team. 

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-eagles-30-colts-27.html

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@rogcohen I actually forgot about his other fumble. Geeze, he sucks.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-eagles-30-colts-27.html

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@flindt I'm not sure there is. Jackson especially has had bad coverage stats before. He's just not good at it.

1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/bloggers-of-the-round-table-week-1-in-review.html

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@bjg We can debate that. They didn't cause the drops, and certainly not Manning's two errant throws. 


They didn't get gashed with the run, but gave up 31. It's not reason for optimism.

1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@smonroe @mattshedd What turned Peyton was Dungy. Luck needs his Dungy.

1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@mattshedd Luck did that a lot more last year. He definitely has Peyton's, "Too hell with it! I'm winning this game as a team!" mode from 99-2002.

1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@smonroe See, I don't agree. There's a difference between process and outcomes. The outcome was fine, and yes, I'll take 7 points a half every time. However, if they utilize the same process, they are very unlikely to obtain that same outcome.


That's why I say they played poorly.

1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@buymymonkey It was instructive and worth a look.

1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@paulcareyjr I would like to see a still of the ball on his palms. It was off his finger tips.

1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@TheFunkyMonkey I don't think you are wrong there, but it's so hard to be positive about anything about the roster except Luck, that the passing game ends up getting the attention. The rush offense had a better DVOA, but again, that was mostly do to Luck's scrambles.


It's a team with a bad line, a terrible defense that got torched in the playoffs, a suspect run game...if Luck and Hilton get the bulk of the attention, it's hard to quibble.


So, you're right, it's a lot about passing offense. But if other areas had gotten more attention, people would have complained it was too negative.

3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@ScottComstock @Nate Dunlevy No worries. Yes, I have copies of Invincible, Indiana for sale. Blue Blood is temporarily out of print, but I will be revising it in the future for another release.

3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@ScottComstock Thanks Scott. Yes, I had a great time with my three pieces.

3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@Payton @Colt_Following We've looked into printing. It's really cost prohibitive.

3 months, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@mattshedd  You can't evaluate a pick for a couple of years, but these pieces help us create realistic criteria by which we can measure a pick. Ricardo Matthews was an awesome pick, for example. I'm not sure people view it that way.

5 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/what-to-expect-2014-jonathan-newsome-andrew-jackson-ulrick-john.html

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@Professor Blue @Nate Dunlevy @rogcohen @mattshedd  I know. I'm just not sure I actually believe him.

5 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@rogcohen @Nate Dunlevy@mattshedd12 games started really is the fall line. 32 of 48 started at least 8. 25 started at least 12. Considering where they brought him into, I don't think 12 is too high. 


At any rate if they finish the year with him starting, everyone will be fine with it.


Holmes is dual listed on the roster G and C.

5 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@19>18 It's an eyeball test. 28 of 47 started in 10 games. 25 started in 12. Most of the guys who started from day one played in at least 12 games. 10 or 12, it comes down to injuries.


I wouldn't really quibble either way.

5 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@mattshedd  Not really. PFF grades are dicey for me. They are super contextual and I don't trust them enough for something like this.


I like their stats better than their grades.

5 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@hankster

Nah. I'm just of a certain age. People in their 30s love that movie.

9 months, 3 weeks ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Patriots

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@hankster

There are stylistic elements in common, but I think he has the ability to dissect a defense like Manning. Also he does the comeback/close victory thing that Manning excels at but Rodgers has always struggle to do. 

9 months, 3 weeks ago on Growing Up Before My Eyes

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@rogcohen@apom95@Nate Dunlevy

Sorry for the crappy formatting on that last comment. The numbers didn't come over well. 

9 months, 4 weeks ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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@rogcohen@apom95@Nate Dunlevy @rogcohen@apom95@Nate Dunlevy 

I wanted to do a bit more research before answering you, because your opinion surprised me. Obviously, sacks and tackles are a pretty shallow way to look at the issue. There's no one great way to measure defensive players. The cheat is to try and use PFF grades, but I have problems with those too. I'll try and go into more depth with a variety of metrics. 
Werner was pretty clearly worse than everyone on your list but Datone Jones. He crushed him.
Here's how they did using PFF stats (which vary from PFR occasionally):
     Grade, snaps, sacks, pressures, tackles
Jordan: 0.1, 339, 2, 18, 16Mingo: -9.8, 668, 5, 18, 27JJones: -3.9, 646, 1, 25, 28Werner, -6.7, 312, 3, 10, 11
Werner played the fewest snaps, but was clearly inferior to Jordan, both by grade and pressures. You could prorate him near Mingo, but his pressures and tackles would still be short of J Jones. 
Also, not all of his snap differential was due to injury. Some of it was that he simply didn't get on the field enough. He did get 2.5 sacks (or 3 in PFF), but only 10 pressures. That really does jive with what I saw on tape, which was a sub-standard pass rusher. This is confirmed by the fact that he had the worst pass rushing grade of anyone on the list. His -8.0 is really putrid.
Again, I'm not trying use PFF grades as a trump, so throw them out if you want. They have issues, I'll grant you.
On the balance, however, I don't know that the stats (which are admittedly shallow) or the tape or the scouting grades are particularly encouraging about Werner.
I do think that because of the fact that we KNEW he'd be a non-factor for a few years, it's too early to give up hope. He may well pan out.
I do not think there is any reason to take comfort from his play. I would rate him as slightly below expectations. Similar season expectation-wise to Fleener last year. Not too bad. Injury hurt him, long-term value still in question.
If he takes a nice jump forward the pick can still pan out. Right now, I'd put him ahead of D Jones and behind every other player like him taken in the first.

9 months, 4 weeks ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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@apom95@Nate Dunlevy@rogcohen

Mathis really didn't play much his rookie year with the base defense. He mostly worked special teams and mop up duty. Werner got way more playing time. Mathis was a special teams star and a spot player. The roles really were different and he still made a bigger impact.

10 months ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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Chapman basically hit last year's projection 

10 months ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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@rogcohen @rogcohen If you go back to the comps, it's actually fairly reasonable. Freeney was a pure edge rusher, which is not at all what Werner is projected as. Freeney was also picking up double-digit sacks from his rookie year on, and that is not an expectation anyone had for Werner.

Remember he's essentially playing the same position as Walden, and has responsibilities in this defense against the run as well.
He graded out poorly on tape and the projection was really modest. 
He was considered to be a major project player and it looks like the project has a long way to go. 

10 months ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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@naptown_ninja

I actually think the Jags have more overall talent. Houston's primary talent base is quite old. I also like the Jags front office better than Houston's.

10 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Jaguars

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@hankster

Let me address the prediction issue, as I have both years.

The first point in today’s Eyes really covers it. I also gave a speech to a local group about it last year. Every year, I go over my predictions to see what I got wrong. The 2011 and 2012 Colts both slightly exceeded my stat projection for them. Profile-wise, I wasn’t far off. However, both teams look to greatly exceed their win totals.

This year, I said they were a 9 to 10 win team. They might win 11. However, their stat profile says they are basically an 8-9 win team. I feel good about that projection. There is a lot of randomness in NFL game outcomes.

What is happening may be the second coming of Peyton. Some guys simply break the Pythagorean rule. They are super rare. There’s only one I know of: Peyton F. Manning.

It could be that Andrew Luck is that guy. Next year, I’ll give Indy an extra win or two in recognition of that.

They are basically exactly what I said they’d be: an improved but flawed team. In the end, they’ll beat my win projection by a game or two, but in fairness I didn’t see Houston’s collapse coming. That’s the extra win.

As for Richardson setting them back three years, here’s what I mean: it takes two to three years for a WR to really be a force. They need that WR now. They can’t get him until 2015 most likely. So instead of trading for Gordon and having a guy now, their big WR target is still several years from becoming a major factor.

That’s what I was getting at.

Anyway, thanks for your kind words. I do appreciate them. I hope this clarifies where I’m coming from. Some of the confusion comes from the fact that I write far far less about the Colts, so my thoughts aren’t always condensed in one place. It makes it harder to follow my logic.

That’s my fault, not yours.

Cheers.


 Thanks for the apology. It's accepted. I do appreciate it. 

10 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@hankster

I gave you my number in the other thread. Let's sit down and talk this out. You like what Grigson is doing?  Fine. YOu have to understand that I hate it. Despise it. I think the results have been great because of Luck.

 I lived through a Jim Mora regime once, so I know what it looks like when a great QB covers up for a crappy coach. I was super pro-Grigson last year, but his work this year has been rough. The Richardson trade alone set this franchise back three years. Not to mention opening the season with DHB at WR. That’s just awful.

The good things to say about the Colts are pretty limited to Luck, Brown and Mathis at this point. I talk about them a lot. The Colts stat profile shows a team that does nothing very well. It’s one of the weirder teams ever.

I’ve gone on record several times that I thought they’d beat KC in KC and could make a playoff run. Find someone else who was talking like that last week.

All I can say is that I’m giving you my honest take on the team. I feel negative about it. I don’t like watching them as they are currently constructed. I’m not ripping them to rip them. Most weeks are painful to watch. That’s how I honestly feel.

10 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy @therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy I'd love to have a beer or coffe with you. You are clearly angry and I don't get why.
Here's my number: 317-796-8948.
Sit down with me face to face and call me a liar and say these things or shut the hell up and go away.
Man up. You want to rip my humanity and integrity, fine. Do it to my face. You know my name. Text me. We'll meet and you can say this to my face.

10 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy
What Eyes in the Backfield are you talking about with Brown and Ballard? I'm missing some context here.
Does all this boil down to the fact that yo are angry because you've been wrong about Colts running backs? It seems like you are one of the idiots who crapped on DB and like the Richardson deal. Is that your problem? You don't know enough about football to know that was a bad deal from the start, and now you are ashamed because you were wrong?
You do need therapy. Stats are snap shots. There are times where YPC matters and times when it doesn't. The are blunt instruments used for different purposes at different times. I do use them in different ways, and I'd love to have this discussion with you face to face because you are clearly angry about something.
My guess is that you were one of the idiots who LOOOOVED the new philosophy and are mad that it's not really panning out with good football. If so, fine. 
I hate it. It ruining the Colts. It's costing them a shot at rings and wasting the early years of Lucks career.
The angle of my seats is amazing by the way. What helps is that I also watch the game film each week too. Any clown can see that Richardson is a disaster. The coaches know it. I've just been point out what the media was too lazy/scared to say.
As for Delone Carter, I have no idea what your point is. He was awful and I said so constantly.
Davis and PFF is hard. I've talked a lot about him. PFF stats in general I've made a point of saying that I don't fully embrace. I'll happily cop to having reservations about them. Especially the grading and some of the weird RB stats. 
Why do you call me a liar about watching film? How dare you? Where do you get off?

10 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded 

1.I said I wouldn’t spend more money on this team this year. That meant to travel to Cincy. I just laid out $1,000 to buy playoff tickets, so clearly you mistook my meaning.

2.You can’t honestly think Grigson has had a good year right?   Walden, DHB, Toler, Richardson, the entire draft…He has had a disastrous year. One of the worst of any GM in football. It’s a shame because if he wasn’t terrible at his job, this team would be a Super Bowl team right now. It doesn’t take much in the AFC, but he’s ruined a title run with awful signings and a D- draft.

3.Input on to how I’d do things differently? Dude, I’ve been giving that for months. Wake up. I write in a lot of different places. I said repeatedly I would have taken a wideout in the first round, I would have made a run a Welker, I wouldn’t have wasted cash on Walden. Please. Pay attention.

10 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@hankster

1. You mistakenly assume the prediction is the important part of a preview piece. 

2. You are assuming expertise is displayed on a single prediction. You don't honestly believe that, because that's the opinion of morons. So I can only assume you are trolling. Why? That's boring.

10 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@hankster 

Yes, calling one game shows expertise. That's what expertise is...making a call on a single game because you are a homer. 

10 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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