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@Platinum They have to get better linebacker play Jackson was a massive liability (pick aside) again.
5 days, 9 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-patriots-45-colts-7.html
@JUCPUC Only if they miss the playoffs.
5 days, 22 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-patriots-45-colts-7.html
@dmstorm22 @Platinum We can agree to disagree. I personally feel like that game was his finest moment, and carried with it one of the four throws I will most remember from his career.
1. 2006 to Clark.
2. 2006 to Wayne v. Denver
3. 2009 to Collie v Jets
4. 2004 to Stokely v San Diego
1 week, 5 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-24-broncos-13.html
@hankster He's more fun to watch than any player except maybe Faulk. Maybe.
@ColtsHead_Ben Well that's stupid nice of you to say.
@Questions Authority What game was David Steele watching?
2 weeks, 4 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-26-bengals-10.html
@Bobman1 @Nate Dunlevy Well, with 10 minutes to go in the game, Indy was down 21 points. Luck hit a 22 yard pass to Bradshaw on 4th and 1.
The end of that game was a crazy rally, but the game wasn't close until the very Indy. For three-plus quarters the Colts looked like they didn't belong on the field.
@Ubeor @Nate Dunlevy Reggie is hurt. His arm injury is significant. Hilton just had a bad day.
2 weeks, 5 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-26-bengals-10.html
@Ubeor Just a talent thing. Nothing else. Some guys struggle with drops.
@Bobman1 I don't know if the Indy O line was good, or cincy just has one of the game's worst pass rushes.
Statistically, I have a hard time coming up with ways Indy keeps it close. Denver is literally better at everything. Chase Stuart had a stat today that when one team is better than the other at YPA for, YPA against, YPC for and YPA against, they are 15-1 in the playoffs.
Denver is just a lot better than Indy. A lot, lot better.
Luck could keep it close, but it would be insane.
@TravisMeeks No. I feel the first half of the first game was more indicative of the relative team strength than the second half. Some weird stuff happened in the second half of that game, and I feel the final score was closer than the game merited.
@DougEngland It was hard to leave #2 and #3 off the list.
@smonroe @Nate Dunlevy Jackson has been arguably the worst player on the team. Jones was hurt most of the season, and Nicks was not an upgrade over DHB.
So, I'd argue those are not upgrades at all.
3 weeks, 1 day ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/what-to-expect-from-the-2014-draft-revisited.html
@smonroe I see that you are saying 2012....I'm saying 2013. That would probably explain a lot.
Yes, this team is better than 2012. the 2012 team was a complete fluke. Their point differential was what, -55? I'd say we know point differential is a better indicator of team strength than record.
So by that metric, this team is waaaay better than the 2012 or 2013 teams.
Wins are, in general, a highly volatile standard and subject to a lot of nose.
@smonroe @Nate Dunlevy Help me out...where specifically do they have superior players from last year?
Adams is an odd player. He's had some picks, but I never got the sense at any time like he was really playing great football.
@NateWalton 2014 was solid, but far from a home run yet. If two of these players are starters in 2-3 years, it will be a great draft. Newsome and Moncrief have a long way to go.
3 weeks, 2 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/what-to-expect-from-the-2014-draft-revisited.html
@smonroe The personnel isn't better. There's no Robert Mathis. There's no Bethea. Those two losses were in no way offset by these players.
They got good value for their picks, but the picks weren't high leverage, so the opportunity to improve dramatically was slim.
@Fot Bollar Or you could say no QB has ever had two 8 TD tight ends in the same backfield.
Luck has tons of talent on this offense. I just see this 180 degrees the opposite in every possible way.
3 weeks, 3 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-titans-10.html
@Bobman1 No question about it. Is that enough to make Manning look like the best QB in football while Luck is 10th? Not sure I buy it. At the same time Luck is making his line look worse than they are. The fumbles, the sacks...those are things Manning didn't struggle with to the extent Luck has.
3 weeks, 4 days ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-27-titans-10.html
@ECB Good points here.
@Fot Bollar Maybe I misunderstood your original take, and if so, I apologize. I spoke too strongly, and I shouldn't have. That's on me.
My point is more this: you could make a strong case that 2000 Manning was the best QB in football. He was really no worse than top three.
So relative to everyone else, Luck isn't in that ballpark.
If the talent is even close to close (and we can split hairs on which had more, but ultimately, I'll buy that it's close), then the discussion really tilts strongly to Manning.
@Fot Bollar Year Three Luck has far far more talent around him on the whole than Year three Manning did. I don't buy that all.
Manning's number two was Jerome Pathon. His three was Terrance Wilkins. Total and utter revisionist history.
@buymymonkey @Nate Dunlevy http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/15881.html
1 month ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-cowboys-42-colts-7.html
@NelsOlson I don't think we learned anything NEW because of this game.
Indy never had a realistic chance of winning against any team with a good QB. It was just as true Saturday as today.
As for the seeding, I don't think hosting the Championship game is as important as getting one of those crap QBs in round. So to that end, the ideal seed for Indy is whichever bring with it a visit from Dalton or Flacco.
@Johnny_Socko I saw McAfee's comments. They are interesting. I'm not sure if that's simple, because often that's also something you emphasize in a meeting pregame, "Watch for this look..."
@buymymonkey I wouldn't bother watching the tape. There really isn't anything to see.
My priority list would be:
@codrutc That's fair. Of course, I wasn't really optimistic anyway. The odds are long and something weird would have to happen. The good news is that weird things happen all the time in the NFL.
@Aunt Jean Thanks Jean! I've never stopped writing. We are well, and yes the kids are huge!
1 month ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-16-2.html
@EricDutil @Nate Dunlevy I don't think Richardson has the speed to get around end like Herron did on the one long run.
I guess I don't buy that Houston's defense was tired. Richardson did get two carries on that drive. One for nine yards and the other for no gain, so it's not like we didn't see him at all.
1 month, 1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-17-texans-10.html
@EricDutil Why exactly would the Texans' front seven have been gassed? They were barely on the field.
@jbw80 It's a valid scenario, but I typically don't jump ahead more than one week. It's a philosophical choice.
I sort of assume the worst case scenario and try to root against it most of the time.
1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-15-2.html
@ScottComstock Turnovers are one thing. Defensive scores are another. They are big, but also very randomized. They aren't a by-product of much of anything other than chance.
So yes, they swing games, but you can't really control for them either.
1 month, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-25-browns-24.html
@DougEngland He's not ok. It's really that simple. He's not old, well, he IS old, but that's not why he's been so bad.
@AJ_ @mattshedd I find it nearly impossible as well.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-14-2.html
Thanks! I Had that job for a year. Doing it for free is a lot more fun!
I have a keyboard for my Ipad. It's pretty nifty.
@GeorgeCostanzaIII @Nate Dunlevy @silentkman Winning Super Bowls is basically luck. There's no 'formula' for a Super Bowl team. Plenty of pass-happy offenses have been winning/going to the SB.
07 Pats, 08 Steelers and Cards, 09 Colts and Saints, 2010 Packers and Steelers, 2011 Giants, 2013 Broncos, and even the 2013 Seahawks won because they did the second most important thing (stop the pass!!!!) better than anyone since the 1970s.
Elite passing gets you to the playoffs every year. What happens after that is basically random chance.
1 month, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/eyes-in-the-backfield-colts-49-redskins-27.html
@GeorgeCostanzaIII @Nate Dunlevy @silentkman "Its Air Coryell/Air Manning all over again."
It is! And that's why I'm so happy. That's the best way to win in the NFL. Offense is more important (and more consistent over time) than defense. If you want a consistent winner, the single most important thing you can do is create an elite passing offense. Second most: an elite passing defense.
That's the part they are still missing.
As for Ty Law, when you break the rules, it's easy to cover.
@Bobman1 That throw and catch...good gracious, what a play by both. You described it perfectly.
@manythingsme Geeze, you are way too kind. Thank you so much. That really does mean the world to me.
@GeorgeCostanzaIII @Nate Dunlevy @silentkman He's hurt. They tried playing Reitz and he was worse.
I don't think the line is that bad, apart from a clearly ailing Cherilus.
They have cut TRich's snaps and carries; they can' t bench him entirely. I'm not sure what more they can do.
I think Pagano has some input, and I hold him accountable for wanting Jackson, who is not good.
I'm not on any side of any coin. I try to judge each move independently and be fair to the totality of the work.
The coaching staff and front office has been a mixed bag. They have done some things very very well (building a top-flight offense). There are other things that have not worked out.
I try to defend the things I think are defensible, and be fair about the things that are bad luck.
@GeorgeCostanzaIII @Nate Dunlevy @silentkman It jumps to 6.9 mil from 3.9. That's not through the roof.
He's not healthy. He played well enough last year.
@ScottComstock @Nate Dunlevy DSR counts field turnovers as a win for the defense. Field position doesn't enter into it.
It works like this:
Each first down can result in either another first down, a TD, a kick or a turnover.
So if I get three first downs and then get a stop, the DSR is .75. Three of four down series resulted in a new first down.
If I give up a TD, the DSR will always be 1.
If I get a turnover after 4 first downs, the DSR is 0.8.
DSR favors teams that force turnovers, give up long plays and force quick 3-and-outs. It works against "Dungy D" teams that allow long drives, even if those drives don't result in seven points.
@ScottComstock @Nate Dunlevy DSR counts first downs and TDs. A three-and-out field goal is a 'win' for the defense.
@ScottComstock Great point on "as expected".
As for stops, Indy ranks 11th in Drive success rate. So you are correct, that would be the highest ranking for Indy in many, many years. They were 14th in 2005.
DSR measures the % of down series that result in a new set of downs (or a TD). Lower the better. So yes, they are giving up lots of big plays, and they aren't a great scoring D, but they are getting off the field one way or another.
Faster drives, faster scores. It's a style.
@mattshedd He's slowing down. My guess is that he's back if he wants to play for a small contract. His age is really catching up fast.
@DougEngland I find it hard to judge Pagano's style because the talent is so bad and so ill-fitting to the philosophy.
I prefer Dungy-ball, but I think the coaches are doing the best they can with the linebackers they have on the roster.
@silentkman The fact is that considering the type of throws Indy favors, it's not true that Luck "gets hit too much". Your expectations for line play are not reasonable.
Luck has the eight-longest time to sack in the NFL.
His average time to throw is 9th-longest.
He has been hit 7th most, but also thrown the most. His "QB hit per pass attempt" his 11th most. That's not great, but it's not horrible either.
His sack rate is reasonable.
So please tell me by what standard we should judge this line?
@jfoley17 Every now and again, I pull up some of those articles and shake my head.
To their credit, they really did run me out of the job. I just couldn't take the crazy.
1 month, 4 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/who-to-root-for-week-13-2.html
@psvirsky Thanks. It's called "getting enough sleep."