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@TheFunkyMonkey I don't think you are wrong there, but it's so hard to be positive about anything about the roster except Luck, that the passing game ends up getting the attention. The rush offense had a better DVOA, but again, that was mostly do to Luck's scrambles.


It's a team with a bad line, a terrible defense that got torched in the playoffs, a suspect run game...if Luck and Hilton get the bulk of the attention, it's hard to quibble.


So, you're right, it's a lot about passing offense. But if other areas had gotten more attention, people would have complained it was too negative.

6 days, 12 hours ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@ScottComstock @Nate Dunlevy No worries. Yes, I have copies of Invincible, Indiana for sale. Blue Blood is temporarily out of print, but I will be revising it in the future for another release.

1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@ScottComstock Thanks Scott. Yes, I had a great time with my three pieces.

1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@Payton @Colt_Following We've looked into printing. It's really cost prohibitive.

1 week ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@mattshedd  You can't evaluate a pick for a couple of years, but these pieces help us create realistic criteria by which we can measure a pick. Ricardo Matthews was an awesome pick, for example. I'm not sure people view it that way.

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/2014-articles/what-to-expect-2014-jonathan-newsome-andrew-jackson-ulrick-john.html

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@Professor Blue @Nate Dunlevy @rogcohen @mattshedd  I know. I'm just not sure I actually believe him.

2 months, 2 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@rogcohen @Nate Dunlevy@mattshedd12 games started really is the fall line. 32 of 48 started at least 8. 25 started at least 12. Considering where they brought him into, I don't think 12 is too high. 


At any rate if they finish the year with him starting, everyone will be fine with it.


Holmes is dual listed on the roster G and C.

2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@19>18 It's an eyeball test. 28 of 47 started in 10 games. 25 started in 12. Most of the guys who started from day one played in at least 12 games. 10 or 12, it comes down to injuries.


I wouldn't really quibble either way.

2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@mattshedd  Not really. PFF grades are dicey for me. They are super contextual and I don't trust them enough for something like this.


I like their stats better than their grades.

2 months, 3 weeks ago on Conversation @ http://coltsauthority.com/

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@hankster

Nah. I'm just of a certain age. People in their 30s love that movie.

6 months, 3 weeks ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Patriots

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@hankster

There are stylistic elements in common, but I think he has the ability to dissect a defense like Manning. Also he does the comeback/close victory thing that Manning excels at but Rodgers has always struggle to do. 

6 months, 3 weeks ago on Growing Up Before My Eyes

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@rogcohen@apom95@Nate Dunlevy

Sorry for the crappy formatting on that last comment. The numbers didn't come over well. 

6 months, 4 weeks ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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@rogcohen@apom95@Nate Dunlevy @rogcohen@apom95@Nate Dunlevy 

I wanted to do a bit more research before answering you, because your opinion surprised me. Obviously, sacks and tackles are a pretty shallow way to look at the issue. There's no one great way to measure defensive players. The cheat is to try and use PFF grades, but I have problems with those too. I'll try and go into more depth with a variety of metrics. 
Werner was pretty clearly worse than everyone on your list but Datone Jones. He crushed him.
Here's how they did using PFF stats (which vary from PFR occasionally):
     Grade, snaps, sacks, pressures, tackles
Jordan: 0.1, 339, 2, 18, 16Mingo: -9.8, 668, 5, 18, 27JJones: -3.9, 646, 1, 25, 28Werner, -6.7, 312, 3, 10, 11
Werner played the fewest snaps, but was clearly inferior to Jordan, both by grade and pressures. You could prorate him near Mingo, but his pressures and tackles would still be short of J Jones. 
Also, not all of his snap differential was due to injury. Some of it was that he simply didn't get on the field enough. He did get 2.5 sacks (or 3 in PFF), but only 10 pressures. That really does jive with what I saw on tape, which was a sub-standard pass rusher. This is confirmed by the fact that he had the worst pass rushing grade of anyone on the list. His -8.0 is really putrid.
Again, I'm not trying use PFF grades as a trump, so throw them out if you want. They have issues, I'll grant you.
On the balance, however, I don't know that the stats (which are admittedly shallow) or the tape or the scouting grades are particularly encouraging about Werner.
I do think that because of the fact that we KNEW he'd be a non-factor for a few years, it's too early to give up hope. He may well pan out.
I do not think there is any reason to take comfort from his play. I would rate him as slightly below expectations. Similar season expectation-wise to Fleener last year. Not too bad. Injury hurt him, long-term value still in question.
If he takes a nice jump forward the pick can still pan out. Right now, I'd put him ahead of D Jones and behind every other player like him taken in the first.

6 months, 4 weeks ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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@apom95@Nate Dunlevy@rogcohen

Mathis really didn't play much his rookie year with the base defense. He mostly worked special teams and mop up duty. Werner got way more playing time. Mathis was a special teams star and a spot player. The roles really were different and he still made a bigger impact.

6 months, 4 weeks ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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Chapman basically hit last year's projection 

6 months, 4 weeks ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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@rogcohen @rogcohen If you go back to the comps, it's actually fairly reasonable. Freeney was a pure edge rusher, which is not at all what Werner is projected as. Freeney was also picking up double-digit sacks from his rookie year on, and that is not an expectation anyone had for Werner.

Remember he's essentially playing the same position as Walden, and has responsibilities in this defense against the run as well.
He graded out poorly on tape and the projection was really modest. 
He was considered to be a major project player and it looks like the project has a long way to go. 

6 months, 4 weeks ago on What to Expect 2013 Draft Revisited

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@naptown_ninja

I actually think the Jags have more overall talent. Houston's primary talent base is quite old. I also like the Jags front office better than Houston's.

7 months ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Jaguars

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@hankster

Let me address the prediction issue, as I have both years.

The first point in today’s Eyes really covers it. I also gave a speech to a local group about it last year. Every year, I go over my predictions to see what I got wrong. The 2011 and 2012 Colts both slightly exceeded my stat projection for them. Profile-wise, I wasn’t far off. However, both teams look to greatly exceed their win totals.

This year, I said they were a 9 to 10 win team. They might win 11. However, their stat profile says they are basically an 8-9 win team. I feel good about that projection. There is a lot of randomness in NFL game outcomes.

What is happening may be the second coming of Peyton. Some guys simply break the Pythagorean rule. They are super rare. There’s only one I know of: Peyton F. Manning.

It could be that Andrew Luck is that guy. Next year, I’ll give Indy an extra win or two in recognition of that.

They are basically exactly what I said they’d be: an improved but flawed team. In the end, they’ll beat my win projection by a game or two, but in fairness I didn’t see Houston’s collapse coming. That’s the extra win.

As for Richardson setting them back three years, here’s what I mean: it takes two to three years for a WR to really be a force. They need that WR now. They can’t get him until 2015 most likely. So instead of trading for Gordon and having a guy now, their big WR target is still several years from becoming a major factor.

That’s what I was getting at.

Anyway, thanks for your kind words. I do appreciate them. I hope this clarifies where I’m coming from. Some of the confusion comes from the fact that I write far far less about the Colts, so my thoughts aren’t always condensed in one place. It makes it harder to follow my logic.

That’s my fault, not yours.

Cheers.


 Thanks for the apology. It's accepted. I do appreciate it. 

7 months ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@hankster

I gave you my number in the other thread. Let's sit down and talk this out. You like what Grigson is doing?  Fine. YOu have to understand that I hate it. Despise it. I think the results have been great because of Luck.

 I lived through a Jim Mora regime once, so I know what it looks like when a great QB covers up for a crappy coach. I was super pro-Grigson last year, but his work this year has been rough. The Richardson trade alone set this franchise back three years. Not to mention opening the season with DHB at WR. That’s just awful.

The good things to say about the Colts are pretty limited to Luck, Brown and Mathis at this point. I talk about them a lot. The Colts stat profile shows a team that does nothing very well. It’s one of the weirder teams ever.

I’ve gone on record several times that I thought they’d beat KC in KC and could make a playoff run. Find someone else who was talking like that last week.

All I can say is that I’m giving you my honest take on the team. I feel negative about it. I don’t like watching them as they are currently constructed. I’m not ripping them to rip them. Most weeks are painful to watch. That’s how I honestly feel.

7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy @therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy I'd love to have a beer or coffe with you. You are clearly angry and I don't get why.
Here's my number: 317-796-8948.
Sit down with me face to face and call me a liar and say these things or shut the hell up and go away.
Man up. You want to rip my humanity and integrity, fine. Do it to my face. You know my name. Text me. We'll meet and you can say this to my face.

7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy
What Eyes in the Backfield are you talking about with Brown and Ballard? I'm missing some context here.
Does all this boil down to the fact that yo are angry because you've been wrong about Colts running backs? It seems like you are one of the idiots who crapped on DB and like the Richardson deal. Is that your problem? You don't know enough about football to know that was a bad deal from the start, and now you are ashamed because you were wrong?
You do need therapy. Stats are snap shots. There are times where YPC matters and times when it doesn't. The are blunt instruments used for different purposes at different times. I do use them in different ways, and I'd love to have this discussion with you face to face because you are clearly angry about something.
My guess is that you were one of the idiots who LOOOOVED the new philosophy and are mad that it's not really panning out with good football. If so, fine. 
I hate it. It ruining the Colts. It's costing them a shot at rings and wasting the early years of Lucks career.
The angle of my seats is amazing by the way. What helps is that I also watch the game film each week too. Any clown can see that Richardson is a disaster. The coaches know it. I've just been point out what the media was too lazy/scared to say.
As for Delone Carter, I have no idea what your point is. He was awful and I said so constantly.
Davis and PFF is hard. I've talked a lot about him. PFF stats in general I've made a point of saying that I don't fully embrace. I'll happily cop to having reservations about them. Especially the grading and some of the weird RB stats. 
Why do you call me a liar about watching film? How dare you? Where do you get off?

7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded 

1.I said I wouldn’t spend more money on this team this year. That meant to travel to Cincy. I just laid out $1,000 to buy playoff tickets, so clearly you mistook my meaning.

2.You can’t honestly think Grigson has had a good year right?   Walden, DHB, Toler, Richardson, the entire draft…He has had a disastrous year. One of the worst of any GM in football. It’s a shame because if he wasn’t terrible at his job, this team would be a Super Bowl team right now. It doesn’t take much in the AFC, but he’s ruined a title run with awful signings and a D- draft.

3.Input on to how I’d do things differently? Dude, I’ve been giving that for months. Wake up. I write in a lot of different places. I said repeatedly I would have taken a wideout in the first round, I would have made a run a Welker, I wouldn’t have wasted cash on Walden. Please. Pay attention.

7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@hankster

1. You mistakenly assume the prediction is the important part of a preview piece. 

2. You are assuming expertise is displayed on a single prediction. You don't honestly believe that, because that's the opinion of morons. So I can only assume you are trolling. Why? That's boring.

7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy@hankster 

Yes, calling one game shows expertise. That's what expertise is...making a call on a single game because you are a homer. 

7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@Nate Dunlevy


1.How have the Colts “consistently exceeded expectations”? They have won 10 (maybe 11 games) instead of the 9 to 10 I thought they’d win. They have some great wins and some terrible losses. Statistically, they are exactly the profile of a 9 win team. They are basically exactly who I thought they’d be.


2.“You sir, are the worst kind of fan imaginable, one who will stop spending money on the team because they don't build in the way you think is ideal.



What are you even talking about? Are you just making things up now?

As for passive aggressive attacks on Grigson, they aren’t passive at all. I think he’s had a terrible year. Let’s call that aggressive aggressive, shall we? He made some huge, obvious mistakes that cost this team a chance at a title now. It’s been bad year for him. I’ll cop to that.


7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded@hanksterThis was the weirdest comment of all time. I'm glad this game was so easy to call. I must have been the only one earth that picked KC to win at home. This was a very good game preview and if you read it carefully you'll see the only thing it missed on was the final score. I stand by it.

7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@therapyneeded

Listen, clown boy, I wrote a huge piece last week about how I expected Indy to beat KC in Indy. I think yesterday's game was a mild upset. 

For the record, I picked Indy’s games right ten times and this is the first one I’ve missed since the Rams game. Make a point next time. 




 

7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@snakerjaker@Nate DunlevyWhen I hold it in the light, it looks dark dark blue. I agree, it looks too grey to me too, but I do think it is blue.

I

7 months, 1 week ago on Support Colts Authority With Your Own Spider Three Y Banana Shirt

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@snakerjakerIt does look grey, but I think it's actually Navy. It seems to change color depending on the light.

7 months, 1 week ago on Support Colts Authority With Your Own Spider Three Y Banana Shirt

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@EconolineVanYeah, fixed that. I don't, but he's not the worst this year.

7 months, 1 week ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Chiefs

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@JohnStiflerCyzycki If Cincy loses 1 and Indy wins 2, Indy gets it. If Cincy and Indy BOTH lose two and the Ravens win two of three, Indy gets the 3. If Cincy and Indy both split, but Cincy loses to the Ravens, Indy gets the 3.

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Who to Root For: Week 15

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@JohnStiflerCyzycki

No, because the first tiebreak is head to head. The Colts lost to the Bengals so that trumps everything else

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Who to Root For: Week 15

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@mattshedd

I just don't think he's well.

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Texans

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@Payton@hankster

They're stats are all good except TD/INT. It's a complete breakdown of the secondary. What also has 9.5 sacks, but the next closest player has six, then five. Last in the league in picks and no pass rush. That'll get you beat no matter how good one defender is. I mean, think about Mathis on the Indy D. 

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Eyes in the Backfield: Texans

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@hankster The site it's appearing on delayed launch for a week. Next Thursday now.

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Who to Root For: Week 15

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@chip_bennett Because Indy can still technically get the #1 seed.

7 months, 2 weeks ago on Who to Root For: Week 15

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@chip_bennett @Nate Dunlevy @AJ_ It wasn't entirely coincidence. It really had to do with cadence.

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Support Colts Authority With Your Own Spider Three Y Banana Shirt

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Plus this looks like a smiley face and I like it.

@AJ_

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Support Colts Authority With Your Own Spider Three Y Banana Shirt

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 @AJ_ I went back and forth on the design. I get that one spider three Ys fits the verbal convention, but it just felt wrong. It's more like old school english...and the brothers three! That's really how he was talking. 

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Support Colts Authority With Your Own Spider Three Y Banana Shirt

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@NickWalter @Nate Dunlevy @hankster Of course. Write me to place an order.

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Support Colts Authority With Your Own Spider Three Y Banana Shirt

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@hankster This is all handled by a third party vendor. However, if you like, email me (ndunlevy at gmail.com) and I'll purchase a shirt for you, have it delivered to my house, then reship it. It won't get there for Christmas, though.


I'm doing it for other overseas customers, so send me the size and address. Once I get the shirts, you can paypal me the money for the shirt plus shipping, tax whatever.

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Support Colts Authority With Your Own Spider Three Y Banana Shirt

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@spurwhisperer  "He could have very literally forced Irshay to keep him by simply making some concessions on the money end."


This is where you are 100% wrong.


Irsay asked Manning to curtail his snaps with the first string offense to accommodate Luck. He wanted to be sure Luck got extra practice and game time.


THAT (not the money) is what was the deal breaker. Your understanding of what the central issues were is just not right.


The poison pill forced the decision, but it wasn't the actual obstacle.


Keeping both quarterbacks wouldn't have made sense. Luck's high possible trade value was before the draft ever took place. For Indy to keep both would have ensured a lower return on the initial investment.


Keeping both was easily the worst possible option. It's not even close. 

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Eight Myths Surrounding Peyton Manning's Departure from the Colts

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@Bobman1 I would put the order thusly: NYJ, TEN, Pitt, Balt, MIA, SD. I'm always going to put the teams the Colts lost two last. But yes, they are all similar.

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Who to Root For: Week 14

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@hankster Next wednesday

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Who to Root For: Week 14

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@DougEngland I'm not sure I agree. Miami already won in Indy, so it makes it difficult to want to see them again.

7 months, 3 weeks ago on Who to Root For: Week 14

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@hankster Yes, that is possible. I subjugate beauty to wining, but all else being equal, you'd prefer an interesting offense to a boring one.

8 months ago on Behind Enemy Lines: Tom Gower of Total Titans and the Football Outsiders Take Two

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